This video explains my thoughts on the position for each region including those regions that will not go current in DV2024
PLEASE NOTE: My video has a significant error in column H where I included holes in the number of cases that did not get current. That is corrected in the screenshot below (highlighted). Also it’s worth pointing out that this number does not account for countries limited, which will affect EU by some cases (increasing the not current cases a bit).
This means less cases/people were left high and dry than I mentioned in DV2023. But overall, my comments don’t change much for any of the regions I said would not go current. They still will not go current.
August 9, 2023 at 03:12
Dear Simon
My case number is 2024AS20xxx
I filed my ds260 on June 14th, unlocked it and resubmitted it on July1st. I’m from The West Bank, chargeable to Jordan but the interview location is in Jerusalem.
I wanted to ask you about Jerusalem Embassy. I noticed on xarthisius website that Jerusalem issues very few visas every month. Sometimes one or two and up to ten at most.
Is that Because Jerusalem is a bad embassy like Nairobi ? Have you heard of DV cases coming out of the West Bank or Gaza before and receiving a visa?
August 9, 2023 at 11:07
They take few interviews because Israel has a tiny number of selectees.
August 9, 2023 at 04:58
Hi Simon,
Thanks for all the information. Considering my case number is EU52K, I realize that my chances of becoming current are very limited, if not nonexistent. Since I’ve already completed the DS260 form, do you think it might create any issues if I decide to apply for an ESTA and visit the US for tourism? (I hope to avoid being denied entry due to any misconceptions that I intend to immigrate).
Best
August 9, 2023 at 11:12
It shouldn’t affect the ESTA since the risk of overstaying on ESTA is lower than non immigrant visas.
August 9, 2023 at 05:53
Hi Simon thanks for the update, my case number is AF61k 2024 Morocco should i be worried ?
August 9, 2023 at 11:12
Probably, yes.
August 9, 2023 at 09:07
Hi Simon,
Thanks for your effort and great videos helping people.
My question is looking at announced DV24 data.
What would be the situation for AS41**** case number.
DS 260 was submitted early July.
August 9, 2023 at 11:18
Somewhat risky.
August 10, 2023 at 21:09
Thanks Brit,
Do you have any idea about Riyadh Embassy performance last couple of years.
August 11, 2023 at 11:05
Here is the data
https://dvcharts.xarthisius.xyz/ceacFY23.html
August 9, 2023 at 17:04
Hello and thank you for your thorough and helpful explanations. For someone selected for DV2024 EU15xxx, previous years (2022 and 2023) this number range was current around March or April? Would you expect the same for this year? When do you think would be an estimate window of time for the interview in this case?
August 9, 2023 at 22:42
Because there are more holes we might see that number be current a little earlier. BUT these predications cannot be precise – so “wait and see” is the best plan.
August 10, 2023 at 01:55
Dear Britsimon
I need you to correct me if I’m wrong.
Dv2023AF highest case number is 63502.
And from this total, 29334 cases were without holes,
Note: I got the 29334 cases from the ‘cases before & after me’ finding tool in the 2023 CEAC data.
Therefor, the rest = 63502 – 29334 = 34168 cases are holes only in africa region, right?
Thankyou.
August 10, 2023 at 14:46
Yes. More holes than cases in DV2023 for AF region. Same for DV2024. However, the holes rate increases in later number ranges, it is not uniform throughout the range.
August 10, 2023 at 17:53
Thanks Britsimon.
And out of those 29334 cases, only 9545 cases were issued visas from Africa, according to the CEAC data, right?
August 11, 2023 at 11:06
So far.
August 10, 2023 at 06:05
Hi Simon,
Thanks for your effort and great videos helping people.
My question is looking at announced DV24 data.
What would be the situation for EU29**** case number.
DS 260 was submitted in May.
August 10, 2023 at 16:08
Pretty good chance
August 10, 2023 at 08:53
Hi Simon, do you think I have a high chance of getting interviewed? My case number is AS28xxx in Malaysia.
August 10, 2023 at 08:59
Am I at risk here with my case number?
August 10, 2023 at 16:09
You have some chance, and some risk.
August 10, 2023 at 11:52
Hi Brits.. Please i understand you only respond to dv lottery questions only.. but i would appreciate if you can put more light to this question below:
Green Card holder road to citizenship .. Must be physically present in united states for 30 months …
my question: does this mean the green card holder will remain in united states for 30 months without any trip out of united state ??
a green card holder who work and live in united state for 4-5 months and travel international to visit family for just 1 month and get back ..
because immediate family (wife & kids) lives abroad.. the green card holder make a commitment of visiting family every 4-5 months for 1 month visit and back to the state.
Will this green card holder qualify after 5 years to apply for naturalization to citizenship
GREEN CARD HOLDER IS ON DV LOTTERY
please kindly share more light on this …
thaNK YOU
August 10, 2023 at 16:14
This is a technical question, and one which I would not answer as it is not my area of expertise.
August 10, 2023 at 17:20
Hi Simon!
Do you think a case number EU37xxx has a shot to be scheduled for interview or should I be worried? DS260 was submitted in May.
Thanks
August 11, 2023 at 11:08
Has a shot, but don’t take it for granted.
August 11, 2023 at 15:45
Thank you for replying Simon! What I forgot to mention is that the chargeable country is Italy but the interview location would be Frankfurt. Not sure if that makes a difference or not but I really hope we get the chance to interview! All the best!
August 11, 2023 at 16:42
No difference.
August 12, 2023 at 04:53
Dear Britsimon
In that table presented for illustration, you specified that there are 49119 selectees from AF region for DV2023. But on the other hand, the ‘cases before & after me’ finding tool in the 2023 CEAC data shows that there are 29334 cases after the first CN, which is 2023AF3. Would you please clarify me.
Thankyou!
August 12, 2023 at 10:33
Each case includes the principal selectee and any derivatives (spouse and children). So “selectees” is people and there are more people than cases.
August 12, 2023 at 11:50
Hi Simon, thoughts on a very late EU43k number, almost 44k?
August 12, 2023 at 13:54
My thoughts are that we will know more in January 2024, and that case number range will know more then.
August 12, 2023 at 18:09
Til we wait for that bulletin, do you think it has a chance? (I am going to wait to send the ds260, but I am wondering if there is an actual chance for me)
August 12, 2023 at 18:26
I don’t know. We will know more in January.
August 13, 2023 at 05:51
hi brit how about the chance Dv24 Af705xx
August 13, 2023 at 09:32
Probably OK.
August 13, 2023 at 16:23
Any theories as to why so many were selected in OC, and do you think we will ever find out why? I’m OC20xx, how safe do you think that number is?
August 13, 2023 at 17:36
No theories, and no we will never find out.
OC had a case density of 41% in DV2023. DV2024 is around 42%. So – case number 2024OC2000 is approximately the same as 2023OC2000. In DV2023 that case went current, but partly because of the shortfall of issuances in AF region. So – you have a reasonable chance in DV2024, not 100% safe.
August 16, 2023 at 12:45
Hey Simon,
I’ve really enjoyed watching your videos as of late (since winning the DV visa). The subject matter is very interesting, and appreciative of the help.
My case number is relatively low- EU6xxx, and plan on filing AOS. Based on previous years and your analysis, I’d expect it to become current in the next couple of months.
My question is- and you touched on this in your video- if e.g. the October bulletin says that my number will be current in November, do I wait until November to submit my bundle?
Thanks in advance
August 16, 2023 at 20:10
With AOS, there is an early filing process that allows you to file once your number is “predicted” in the VB. However, you should not submit prior to the beginning of the financial year because such cases are often (incorrectly) rejected. So – if the next VB (published in September) says you will be current in November, you can file on October 1 onwards.
August 17, 2023 at 08:42
This is very helpful, thank you for taking the time to respond here.
August 27, 2023 at 15:06
Hi Brit my case number is 2024Af36035 viewing the data about am I going n a safe side
August 28, 2023 at 09:40
Yes, by the number. So the question is about the embassy.
August 30, 2023 at 17:29
Hi Brit the embassy is in Yaoundé Cameroun
August 30, 2023 at 17:39
You should be OK then.
November 22, 2023 at 00:06
Hi Brit my case number is 2024Af23XXX when i check for visas status in the ceac website it keep showing me invalid case number..
November 22, 2023 at 05:34
That is because NONE of the DV2024 cases can be checked in that system until January 1.
January 1, 2024 at 01:32
Hi Simon
Thanks for your videos
My case number 24EU13xxx (13k). And I am from Uzbekistan Can I hope to scheduled before may 2024
January 1, 2024 at 11:58
Maybe.
January 5, 2024 at 07:26
Hi Simon thanks for all the information
I wanted to ask
Do you think that i have a chance
CN AF112k at Saudi Arabia embassy
January 5, 2024 at 08:17
Realistically – no.