I was asked some questions about Ethiopian case numbers so I thought it would be useful to have a Holes theory illustration on Ethiopia. This post is useful to further understand the way that the draw process cuts off certain countries and those countries have all their cases concentrated into the early case numbers. I am assuming the reader will have read the post about the draw process and holes theory – so this example will help illustrate the points I made in that post – so read that, and then come back to this post.
So let’s take a DV2015 example. One of the “limited” countries is Ethiopia (others are Ghana, Egypt, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Nepal and Iran). Nigeria was limited of course due to enormous numbers of entries and the exclusion of Nigeria is sure to change to final high case number for Africa in DV2015 – explained here.
In the case of Ethiopia, we can assume (based on recent years statistics) that at least 600k entries (plus family) would have come in from Ethiopia. At 1.8% (the approximate winning chance for Africa), they would have received about 10,800 winning entries – which would mean around 14,000 total selectees including family members (at 0.3 derivatives per case based on entry Ethiopian numbers in previous years). Those 10,800 cases would have been randomly distributed over the 100k case numbers – so roughly 1080 Ethiopian winning case numbers per 10,000 CNs.
However, since Ethiopia was cutoff at 4988 (with family members) that works out to be about 3800 cases, and at 1080 cases per 10000 CNs, that means the max Ethiopian case number would be about 35k (roughly). I expect all of those cases for Ethiopia to get current.
Some people may say that seems unfair to give the Ethiopian cases the low numbers – so the draw explanation makes it clear why it is fair. And of course, the 4988 winners from Ethiopia get the low numbers, but something like 9000 more people from Ethiopia lost their winning chance before the selected letters were even sent out!
Incidentally, that 1080 per 10k case numbers trend continues above the 35k – but of course those cases are “holes”, thus reducing the density in higher case number ranges. Other types of holes (caused by disqualifications) would be evenly distributed throughout the case numbers.
May 4, 2017 at 05:20
In addtion do you think there are arround 1080 case above 35k every ethiopia. In addtion all those i have nt heard a case number abve 35k but ther is alot this year what do you think the reason?
May 4, 2017 at 05:15
Dear Simon,
When saw your anlyses on this post is very intersting, i have understand how you went to support peoplels. Thank you Bro. but this year as we obsrved 4 ethiopia there are many case above 35k even there are cases above 40k so what do you think the reason? and do you think ethiopia will ho current.
May 4, 2017 at 05:29
They have selected a lot of people this year, and might not have limited the draw as early. But it’s early to kno exactly.
May 4, 2017 at 06:08
Dear Simon,
it is for 2017 DV case do you think this early know?
May 4, 2017 at 06:23
Well please make that clear next time. I don’t have a prediction.
September 22, 2016 at 01:22
Hi because of the holes theory i couldn’t predict my interview month. would u please Guess my interview day/month. my case no is AF249** from Ethiopia and i have submitted my ds- form on June 5,
pls don,t refer me to other link just predict it for me
September 22, 2016 at 02:59
“just predict it for me”
No.
Wait and see.
March 16, 2015 at 00:15
Thanks sir
March 15, 2015 at 23:03
Dear sir i am already know some cases for my friends over what you are say such as 33*** and 35*** from Egypt
March 15, 2015 at 23:28
As I have mentioned before – there are always some outliers – but I will be confirming my numbers with the new entry data over the next few days.
March 15, 2015 at 03:30
Dear Sir , can you please till us about the max number of EGYPT like you made that to Ethiopia?
March 15, 2015 at 05:50
It’s around 30/30.5
February 13, 2015 at 17:51
Does the country limited when the number of selected be 5000 selectees
February 13, 2015 at 18:04
Yes – this year, the selectee limit is around 5000 per country.