At this time of year there is a changeover about to happen. Over the coming weeks we will see how DV2023 ends and then watch as DV2024 begins. It’s an emotional time of year – especially in a year like this where the ending is not going to be happy for some cases in DV2023. So – let’s talk about what we know at this point.
In a few days time we will see the next Visa Bulletin (known as the VB). That VB will be the first numbers for DV2024, which will signal the ranges for October interviews. That VB will, most likely, give us the selectee numbers for each country, so we can see how many selectees have been chosen for DV2024. That is important information, as I will explain below.
But also the new VB will signal the end of normal scheduling for DV2023. After the new VB we do not expect any new 2NLs, although that did happen in DV2022. This year it should be obvious to all that the government have already scheduled too many interviews and it is uncertain how things will close out. Will they stop at the global cap, will they exceed the cap, will they give preference to 221g cases or the scheduled interviews in September, will they cancel interviews if the cap is met. There are many open questions, and quite honestly I have NO IDEA how the government will resolve the situation they have created. So – I know people are concerned to know how things will work out in DV2023, but all I can say is “wait and see”.
Regarding DV2024, people want to know how high their case numbers are, and whether they will get an interview. I have some idea on the highest numbers per region I have seen and am publishing those below, but these numbers are based on reports, and will not be 100% accurate. We won’t know the exact numbers until January 1, 2024 when we will have access to the CEAC data.
However, when the VB shows us the selectee counts, we will know whether this is an overselected year or not. If the year is under selected (let’s say under 100,000 selectees), then the case numbers won’t matter – any case could become current. However, if the selectee count is higher, then we will have to estimate the chances based on the high case number estimates we have. That isn’t very accurate but it’s the best we can do at this time.
So – those high case number estimates are:
AF122XXX (one way higher, but looks like an outlier)
EU69XXX (reported in Russian forum, and others at 66)
AS52XXX (from Telegram 24 channel, but 45XXX, might be more accurate)
OC49XX (lots at 47/48 range on BritSimonSays and one guy at 69XX, could be a misunderstanding)
SA50XX (Telegram, but likely higher)
Now again, these are NOT accurate. These are simply the highest case numbers I have seen from credible reports.
Once we have the selectee numbers we can use those to discuss case density, holes and so on. I usually create a video to explain those findings, so look out for that after the VB is published.
For those that are wondering the VB will be published within the next week or so – we normally expect it between the 8th and 15th of each month (approximately).
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