OK – now that we have the 2NLs for March interviews I was able to run a CEAC extract and calculate a couple of critical metrics. The response rate and the number of interviews that were scheduled for March.
First about the response rate /backlog.
When the results were announced in may of last year, there would have been a flood of DS260 submissions in the first few months. This flood would have overwhelmed the resources of KCC, thus creating the backlog. So, for example if we imagine they could process about 1000 DS260s per week and they were getting 1500 a week in the first few months, it is easy to see how a backlog can build up. KCC process the cases in order of submission, regardless of case number or region. This means there is a waiting time that builds up – as well as the actual processing time for each case. The actual processing time varies by country, because some foreign governments have good systems and high levels of cooperation with the USA, whilst other countries have poor record keeping systems or low levels of cooperation. Selectees who come from the latter countries will take longer to process. Obviously someone may have complex work or travel history that can slow processing also. So – as I have said, two cases submitted on the same day won’t always complete processing on the same day. However, the waiting time before processing starts is the same for all cases. Whilst KCC has a backlog, there is a waiting time.
After the most recent 2NLs, I heard from some cases that were submitted in early December and got scheduled for March interviews. Now – those were unusually fast (highly cooperative countries and simple cases). There are still many cases not processed from October and November, but the fact that some were completed from December tells me that KCC is almost caught up with the backlog. A case submitted today would start processing almost immediately. That is good news – it means the backlog will have less effect in the coming months.
The speed of the response varies by region. For instance, AS region has very high and fast response rate, whilst AF region shows slow initial responses. Each region also varies in terms of how many responses they will eventually have. But I can look at the current response rate and somewhat accurately predict the response rate increase for the coming month. Because I can predict how many interviews a region will have month to month, based on previous months, this means I can calculate the number of interviews that will go to backlog cases, and therefore calculate how many cases will need new cases to be released.
I’m posting a screenshot of that calculation below, but let me say the following about my predictions for the following month. Remember this is for the VB that will be issued around Feb 10th. That VB is called the March VB, and it is for April interviews. Also – just remember – I only publish these predictions to educate people on how the process works. It doesn’t really matter whether I get these right or not – the VB will be what KCC decide, but at least people will know what to expect and might understand the process is not as mysterious as we once thought.
First, EU (and probably OC) is very likely to go current. If by some chance either of those does not go current for April interviews, they will for May interviews.
For AF region, I believe next month will see a VB of around 22000 – give or take 500. I might be slightly overestimating the backlog interviews, but we will see.
SA region will probably increase to around 900, perhaps 925.
Now, the region that I tend to get a lot of questions from… AS region. This region is harder to predict. The density and capacity of Nepal cases, plus the Iranian cases that take additional processing make it harder to be precise. Having said that, I expect Nepal to be limited at a different point to Asia as a whole again – probably around 4800 roughly. AS region will probably increase to 5500/5600.
Now also please remember – we are only 6 months in to a 12 month process. There is a long time to go so it is far to early to be predicting the final numbers and there is some uncertainty about how KCC/USCIS will handle the shortfall in EU and OC regions.
So if you ask me about YOUR number , don’t be surprised when I say – “wait and see”.
I hope that helps.
April 3, 2016 at 14:28
Hi britson
If some one gets hight cn lke AF55xxx what i depend on inorder to reach his case number
April 3, 2016 at 15:01
A high number only gets a chance if the quota is high enough and enough lower cases numbers don’t get approved (either by being refused, on AP, or simply not responding).
February 18, 2016 at 23:26
Hello Simon , I would like to email you if it’s possible could you please provide your email address? Thanks
February 18, 2016 at 23:36
britsimon3 at gmail
February 19, 2016 at 16:42
Thank you
February 16, 2016 at 23:02
Hi sir
Am from Cameron and i sent a mail to kcc and this is their reply
February 12, 2016 at 11:19
Dear Brit… am from Africa, after my interview on 7th January 2016 here in Asia, my status has been updated 10 times alongside with my wife and kids…. the consular has called me and requested for additional documents twice, which i already gave to them, they request for document bearing my old names and all international passport i have ever used with both old and new names. on the day of my interview the consular told me to wait for 3days or 1 week precisely…. but the 221g that was giving to me said i can only contact them after 60days…. pls what should i do now, can i call them to know the situation of things. or i should just wait ? pls advice me…. God bless u more for all your assistance so far … i really do appreciate.
February 12, 2016 at 20:08
All you can do is wait. If you have contact details for the embassy you can ask them – but they probably won’t tell you much other than “wait”.
February 10, 2016 at 21:32
hi brit ,
thank you for the very nice article, just wanna ask if you think that Asia may exceed th 10,000 limit this year?
because its the secound time i win with a case number arround 10,000 !!
any information will be appreciated.
thank you
February 10, 2016 at 21:41
I don’t know. It depends on getting some additional quota from EU – but I really don’t know whether they will do that. All you can do is wait and see.
February 9, 2016 at 17:06
Hi Simon
my case number is AF21xxx,i had send my form DS-260 30/05/2015 and unlocked last month 12/01/2016 and returning the same day.
is that this will not delay my interview to april , saw that my case number is current.
thanks you in advance.
February 9, 2016 at 17:55
You should not be delayed – your 2NL will arrive in about 2 weeks.
February 9, 2016 at 13:20
good day; next vb will see 22200 cn for af? i have a relative file at the embassy can i call the embassy to process the case quicker?
February 9, 2016 at 14:35
That number is current for April interview.
February 7, 2016 at 10:52
Hi Brit .I have some questions about my ds260 forms which is expiration date is like this 1/31/2016 in the OMB control number around so what indicates this expiration date .my cn is. 26xxx 10Q
February 7, 2016 at 15:57
It is about the form itself, not your case. Forget it.
February 3, 2016 at 15:27
Britsimon hello
My number is SA97x
1. Is my number safe?
2. When should I expect to be called for the interview?
Thank you
Pere
February 3, 2016 at 15:51
1. Yes
2. Most likely May.
February 2, 2016 at 14:47
Hello mr britsimon i want to know when is my interview ..in which month am 2016af00041xxx
February 2, 2016 at 14:49
Maybe around July or more likely August.
February 2, 2016 at 06:33
hello my number is 22*** and i just realize that i didn’t submit the ds260 form till today… do you think it will be some delay for my interview because of that?
Thank you
February 2, 2016 at 07:13
Of course that will cause some delay.
February 2, 2016 at 13:25
Bonjour mr brit simon
My CN is 2016af00026*** so i submited late my DS260 at the End of october…so can u please guess when they can remove me at NVC to transit or ready…please uncle,thanks for ur advice
February 2, 2016 at 14:46
Probably in late March (May interview)
February 1, 2016 at 19:15
hello Simon my cn is af 211XX can i get for April interview?
February 1, 2016 at 19:17
Maybe.
January 31, 2016 at 16:20
Dear Brit
no any news for DV 2015 winners above 50000.
thanks in advance.
January 31, 2016 at 16:30
There won’t be any news until June or July.
January 31, 2016 at 19:38
So you mean there is a little chance for whom get didn’t interview from DV 2015 above 50000?
thanks in advance ..
January 31, 2016 at 19:54
Ahhh – you were asking about DV2015 again – I missed that you were asking about DV2015 as I have already been very clear about that in my answers to you. I have already told you, there is NO CHANCE for any DV2015 winners above the cutoff to process their DV2015. None at all. DV2015 ended on September 30th – there cannot be any DV2015 case approved after that date – it is a matter of law. You must move on….
January 31, 2016 at 13:31
Following my previous comment i met a mistake regarding my case number, here is my updated case number 2016AF285XX.
January 31, 2016 at 11:57
hello Simon,
till now, what is the latest case no has been scheduled for AS region.
January 31, 2016 at 16:24
https://britsimonsays.com/read-visa-bulletin/
January 31, 2016 at 07:39
22000 is like slow movement compared to the my big number of 47000 which have worried me a lot
January 31, 2016 at 16:00
1. 22000 in 6 months – so only halfway through the process.
2. The process moves faster in the second half because of the drop in density which I have explained and shown.
3. RELAX!
January 30, 2016 at 20:35
Thanks Britsimon.Does It Means A Country Or Region With High Entry Rate During The Dv Lottery Process Will Equall Have A High Number Of Selectees?
January 30, 2016 at 20:54
More entries means more winners. The chance is the same per region with the exception of some limited countries.
January 30, 2016 at 19:48
HI Britsimon Thanks For Ur Great Job.The Question I Want To Ask Is Out Of Topic Of Discussion But I Need To Clearify My Doubt.Is The Dv Lottery Draw Of Selectees Done According By Each Country As A Whole Or According By Each Region(continent)And How Many People Where Selected For Dv Lottery 2016 In Cameroon.Pls Need Ur Reply
January 30, 2016 at 20:00
There are Regional draws. That is why numbers can be the same in each region. (like AF1, EU1, AS1). Cameroon has 3047 selectees.
January 31, 2016 at 07:38
hello Ricky. am also from Cameroon. pls email me at [email protected]
January 30, 2016 at 16:38
thanks for the link, now it’s only showing one line. my name, status as principle applicant, IV app as complete, is there way it can show all the information I filled when I was submitting the whole document (Ds260)?
January 30, 2016 at 16:43
click the “complete” link.
February 1, 2016 at 10:24
Hi brit based on this Q.that GP asked u : thanks for the link, now
it’s only showing one
line. my name, status as
principle applicant, IV
app as complete, is
there way it can show all
the information I filled
when I was submitting
the whole document
(Ds260)?
And also ur answer was: click the “complete”
link.
So that can’t affect the interview date by delaying the process of the ds 260 because he going to re opend it again…thank you for your advice
February 1, 2016 at 16:08
No – that does not unlock the form or allow editing.
January 30, 2016 at 12:07
Hi Brits, thanks for your tireless job of helping people with little experience like me, I am trying to view my Ds260 submitted but it seems I have forgot the link, could you please assist? Just wanted to see what I submitted.
January 30, 2016 at 15:24
https://ceac.state.gov/IV/Login.aspx
January 30, 2016 at 16:16
Mary
my case no Af 93xx submitted on Nov from africa-Kenya when is the interview? Thanks
January 30, 2016 at 16:18
Probably May, maybe June
January 30, 2016 at 06:15
Hi Simon,
I submitted my DS260 in late May 2015 and unlocked and re-submitted in December 2015 to add my new baby. My case no. is AF24,XXX. I guess the interview is possibly in May. When do you think I will get my 2NL and interview schedule?I am from Ethiopia.
Many thanks!
January 30, 2016 at 07:20
2NL in late March
January 30, 2016 at 10:59
Good day mr brit
simon.
Please can u tell me
how many peoples
are selected for DV
2016 at congo DR
January 31, 2016 at 12:14
Hello,
In Democratic Republic of Congo,there are 4475 selectees for 2016 Diversity visa Lottery.
January 31, 2016 at 12:42
Hello Brit…
how are you getting along? I hope you are doing fine. First of all i am here to thank you regarding the incommensurable number of efforts that you are devoting towards selectees.
here are few points that i would like to point out.
1) on my senior high school certificate , my full name was written as follows KOBI CHRIST PRINCE. but on my birth certificate my full name was written as follows KOBI-CHRIST PRINCE. Will it have a bad impact from the CO side during my upcoming interview soon to come? If yes what are your suggestions to make things right by anticipation before the date of my interview?
2) I am from the Republic of Congo (Congo-Brazzaville), here is my case number 2016DV285XX, when will i possibly become current and have finally my interview scheduled in a correlation with your aforementioned publication to forecast upcoming visa bulletins.
REGARDS !
January 31, 2016 at 16:29
1. No impact
2. May or June
Just a point of advice – your writing style has a lot of superfluous words. It just makes your writing harder to read. You would do better to write more simply.
January 30, 2016 at 04:51
Hello Simon,
first i would like to thank you for ur valuable information.
I have some queries, well my case no is 2016AS****58** though i submitted DS-260 twice first on 20th may and resubmitted again adding my husband on 15th july. i read that you saying that backlog is also processing rapidly. so, i’m curious that when will be my interview will be scheduled.
as you have mentioned that AS region will be approx to 5600 so i am little worried but as in previous year at 2015 AS region have the case no upto 7000 so could you help me.
does unlocking affect my case no.
January 30, 2016 at 06:50
Your case number is safe and your interview will be in April or May but most probably in May. Brit is forecasting the cases that will receive the 2NL next month for the April interviews.
January 30, 2016 at 07:16
Your changes are processed by now – so you will probably interview in May
January 29, 2016 at 22:25
hi brit,
i am af25xxxx. Please i am currently studying in japan and i am a winner of 2016 dv. i am married with a child and my chold and wife currently in africa as my wife works in there. i schedule my interview here in japan and i wish that my wife and child do theirs in africa after i should have gotten my visa.i intend to schedule an seperate appointment for them there.i wrote to kcc and they told me to arrange a seperate appointment for them.what do you advice me to do brit considering my case number af25xxxx.thanks.
January 30, 2016 at 01:20
I would not recommend that approach – there is risk that the derivative interviews don’t get scheduled.
January 30, 2016 at 04:30
Good day mr brit simon.
Please can u tell me how many peoples are selected for DV 2016 at congo DR
January 30, 2016 at 15:27
4475
January 29, 2016 at 21:59
Thanks for the wonderful job.
Please, what is the difference between “long form original birthday certificate, Short form birth certificates”
Thanks.
January 30, 2016 at 01:20
Long form birth certificates have space for the names of BOTH parents.
January 29, 2016 at 10:46
Hi, From which case number has been denied from processing their document for. Dv2016
January 29, 2016 at 16:11
I don’t think ANY cases have been “denied from processing their document “
January 29, 2016 at 05:43
sir, on which basis they show beneficiaries number in 2nd NL??according to dv application or according to DS260?
January 29, 2016 at 05:51
The 2NL should show all derivatives.
January 28, 2016 at 22:41
Hi my case number is AF42XXX I’m so worried. Should i be or not! I’m from tunisia the number of selectees is around 200 is that a good thing or not.
January 28, 2016 at 23:39
Your country and the number of selectees has nothing to do with your chances. Your number is fine – relax.
January 28, 2016 at 21:58
gentelman, britsimon
Greetings to your efforts and your patience Analysis holds great glimmer of hope
The biggest GOAL in the lottery program that taught us patience Especially that owners of large figures am AF43XXX NEVER riskiness
thanks lot
January 28, 2016 at 18:09
bow! simon.
that think you to next visa bulletin for the case AF22000?
January 28, 2016 at 17:49
Hey Simon If EU goes to current on the march visa bullettin(which will show april interviews) that mean all the numbers which have won will have an interview on April?(for example 22xxx, 23xxx, 24xxx every body will have an interview date on April) or if EU goes to current, does it mean: there is no more visa for EU region (for example 22xxx or 23xxx) will not have a chance to have an interview and there will not be any interview on April for EU?
I could not get the meaning of Current well. Thank you in advance.
January 28, 2016 at 18:08
Current means they have enough visas for all remaining demand within the region. So – if it goes current, everyone can have an interview (if their DS260 is processed). Some interviews would then continue right up to the end of the year for people that were very late in submitting their DS260s.
January 28, 2016 at 19:29
You re awesome!! and you help people everday non-stop!!
Hope all your wishes come true!!
January 28, 2016 at 15:34
Hi Simon
my case number is AF****45XXX, should I be worried?
Thanks
January 28, 2016 at 16:42
You should be OK.
November 11, 2017 at 00:07
so how did it go with you? I have a similar case number for dv 2018
January 28, 2016 at 14:10
Hi
my Case number is AF00037XX…. is this safe number and if so when is the possible interview month?.
Also why is Africa cut off numbers moving slower compared to 2015?
Thanks
January 28, 2016 at 16:49
Safe – probably July/August.
I have explained the slow progress in many other articles – it is the backlog. Use the search feature above for “backlog”.
January 28, 2016 at 12:19
How about As 7400 from afghanistan
January 28, 2016 at 10:34
hi Simon
my case no. AF000023XXX . DS-260 Submitted on December 15. Interview will be in Kuwait.
my son studies in USA and i work in Kuwait.
1- can me and my wife make our interview in Kuwait and my son makes it in USA? and how if any?
2- when our interview?
good day
Adel
January 28, 2016 at 16:56
1. Whilst there might be a way to do that, I would not recommend it – as it is likely to not be processed by the end of the year (September 30). It would be much more sensible to bring your son to Kuwait for the interview.
2. Probably May, possibly June.
January 28, 2016 at 10:24
Hi Brit,
MY CASE NUMBER IS AF000239XX…..WILL I GET APRIL INTERVIEW
January 28, 2016 at 15:35
I answered that in the article!
January 28, 2016 at 09:02
Well done Simon,
much as it too early to predict for final VB, am AF53k, do you think is there any chance for me? second question if some visas remain in one region(Denied) say Assia cannot they bring the africa to increase the chance of those who had got high CN
thanks
peter AF
January 28, 2016 at 15:27
Yes it is too early to predict that number. You will have to wait until July.
I can’t be sure about how they might reallocate quota. Again, wait and see.
January 28, 2016 at 07:51
Can EU218** be interviewed early April?
Thanks
January 28, 2016 at 15:22
April, anytime.
January 28, 2016 at 07:22
@Safal: Your Number Looks Pretty Closer to mine…I am also from Nepal. Can i have your email address. So we can be in touch.. Btw Where are you from?
January 28, 2016 at 07:19
Hi Simon, It’s Great to see AS Speed up a bit and be in your Prediction Range of 5500-6000 for April Interview. Shall I hope my CN to be Current for April Interview. DS-260 Submitted on May-22, Never Opened 🙂 with CN: AS54XX…
I Hope APRIL to Be the Month of Celebration…..
Cheers:-)
Thank you for the great support!
Andy
January 28, 2016 at 06:36
HI SImon, I am a winner of DV2016 with high case no of Asia and i sent DS260 already. I am going to travel to USA for fashion exhibition this FEB. I have a valid b1/b2 visa, Is it normally fine with travel to USA with my valid visa to USA without any permission ??
January 28, 2016 at 15:20
Yes.
January 28, 2016 at 05:22
Dear brit, I would like to know when will i get my 2NL ?? My CN is AS547* (Nepal), thanks in advance…
January 28, 2016 at 05:46
Well – you will have to wait a couple of months…. so – wait and see.
January 28, 2016 at 06:19
Good morning simon brit.
As i said i filled my DS260 on october and my CN is 2016af26*** so due to the information above when u guess for my 2nl and my interview…thank u uncle
January 28, 2016 at 06:24
Probably May interview….
January 28, 2016 at 09:03
Thank you uncle
January 28, 2016 at 07:24
@Safal: Your Number Looks Pretty Closer to mine…I am also from Nepal. Can i have your email address. So we can be in touch.. Btw Where are you from?
January 28, 2016 at 07:44
what is your email id?? i will mail you
January 28, 2016 at 08:25
[email protected]
January 28, 2016 at 04:51
Hi Simon nice job here God bless you and your family, I am from Ethiopia AF19XXX I submitted DS form on May 28,
when I get 2nd NL & enterview.
January 28, 2016 at 05:07
2nl in a month from now, interview in April.
January 28, 2016 at 03:24
Hi Briti; thank you for your amazing informations. My cn is AF***28 my expectations to the interview was at the month of April but I think it will go May or June?
January 28, 2016 at 03:30
Yes – May or June….
January 28, 2016 at 03:23
Good day Simon, I really appreciate your work. I am a dv winner case number 2016AF00031XXX. My wife is pregnant she due on August and she actually in different country than mine. I would like to change the place of interview to make sure that we can both attend but at the same time I wondering if it will not delays our interview date. I am supposing that we can get our interview by June but nothing is sure. Would you like to give me any advice and predict my interview date.
January 28, 2016 at 03:31
You can change no with no delay. You won’t be current for a while – so there is time.
January 28, 2016 at 01:57
Hello Simon,
This is awesome, thank you for your hard work. hope we will have our interviews soon.
I am just curious to know about how these case numbers are offered?”
is it based on the order we have submitted completed DS 260 or just a random number?
best,
Siri
January 28, 2016 at 02:08
The case numbers are assigned randomly. It is not based on the DS260 – If you think about it – you already had the case number when you saw the letter saying you were selected for further processing.
January 28, 2016 at 15:31
sounds good, so its a lucky number.
thanks
January 28, 2016 at 00:39
Thank you for your time Sir . I truly appreciated , and i hope KCC will use extra visas from EU OC region for the other region ,specially AF so they can reach Cases above 50000 .
January 28, 2016 at 00:36
Hi sir
Thank you for the wonderful information,with the way things are going for AF region I wonder if they will get to 50000 this year, my case number is AF…38550, should I be worried?
January 28, 2016 at 00:47
No.