Further to my request yesterday there was a superb response of scraping around 13000 cases and we have a newly updated set of data.
Here are the latest summary numbers from the CEAC data (published on Xarthisius’ site).
Region | Issued | Refused | AP | Ready |
---|---|---|---|---|
AF | 14137 | 4592 | 2940 | 9102 |
AS | 4286 | 2839 | 1066 | 2994 |
EU | 16722 | 1725 | 866 | 3984 |
OC | 600 | 121 | 53 | 319 |
SA | 1146 | 79 | 92 | 402 |
Totals | 36891 | 9356 | 5017 | 16801 |
By moving the date slider bar on the site, we can see the pace of visa issuance, the cases that got scheduled this month and so on.
Now we have the data, lt’s talk about the numbers.
AF region has 14137 visas issued. The quota is about 21500 (including AOS cases) so there are around 7000 visas left. However, as I recently explained, there was a large number of cases scheduled for August (about 2200), and September has at least 1100 more cases scheduled. So – as recently described the scheduled cases is why the visas running out message is happening in AF region. I do expect AF to NOT hit the quota, so there is a good chance for some additional visas to be made available to clearing AP cases in August and September.
EU region has continued to issue at exactly the pace I predicted in early may. The quota for EU (at 50,000 global) is 18300, and at least 300 of those will go to AOS. So – with two months to go, there are probably only around 1300 visas left. As I have explained, cases scheduled for August and September should be safe because visas have been allocated to each case, but EU clearing AP cases from previous months are certainly at risk. It does look like the quota will be allowed to be exceeded somewhat, but there is no guarantee of that. So – we wait and see.
AS region is FAR below its quota. There will be a shortfall, due to the travel ban. It is sad to see these visas being wasted, and especially sad for people affected by Trump’s cruel and moronic travel ban.
OC has added about 60 issued this month. and they will add at least another 70/80 in August. Because OC has a relatively high number of AOS cases, their quota of approximately 800 will be met when we see 710/720 issued in CEAC. That is confirmation of why the final VB saw only a 50 case number increase, and confirmation that there was no redistribution.
SA is a similar story to OC. Everything looks on target to hit the quota in the final two months of process.
Many thanks to all those that performed the scraping – for now we have most of the data we need but we need to keep scraping over the next couple of months.
By the way – unless their technical approach changed, DV2019 cases will not be available in CEAC until January 1, 2019. So – once we have the final DV2018 extract in early October, the scraping won’t be needed until the new year.
June 11, 2019 at 16:31
hello
Embassy Addis Ababa Ethiopia
i am DV 2019 winner. i attended my interview with my wife on November 2018, at the end of our interview the co asked me to submit an additional document. then i submitted the document on April 2019.
my case is on AP and my wife’s case is on ready. after submitting the document the embassy never contacted us. its been more than 2 months since we submitted the document.
is their any one who is dealing with the same thing ( especially form Ethiopia) please share your experience.
thanks Brit for your blog
September 21, 2018 at 06:06
Ok brit my question is after getting visa changed the address is can be there aproblem ?
September 21, 2018 at 16:19
I can’t see the future.
September 20, 2018 at 18:25
Hi brit to change the sponsored address there is aproblem on green card processing time.maybe waited the isuance day.
September 20, 2018 at 18:29
That question is not clear.
September 20, 2018 at 01:23
dear brtisimon how are u first thank u for guidance.my case is at the last time finished yesterday i got it visa from DHL office relly i am happy by this thing thank you brit “next to god” from AF region
September 20, 2018 at 02:40
Congratulations.
September 12, 2018 at 12:50
Thanks Brit. I got my Visa 2018EU243**
September 12, 2018 at 14:10
Congratulations!
September 12, 2018 at 01:17
Dear brit how are u the day of dv 2018 is already finshed at lest 17 days remaing but still now there is no respond on my adminstrative processing case i am very stress what shall we do pls advise me on this case i am from AF region
September 12, 2018 at 14:01
You can contact the embassy.
September 19, 2018 at 04:20
And what is your case number pls?
August 31, 2018 at 01:50
hi brit
I want to know also if they exist timeframe to submit requested document ifthe embassy notify you to drop off them
August 31, 2018 at 14:28
No – nut do that as fast as possible.
September 18, 2018 at 23:23
Hi Brit, I want to thank you for all. I got my pasport with visa stamped.
May God bless you
August 30, 2018 at 19:49
Hi brit
The consular told to redo my medical report and to submit my PP. this mean there is a available visa for me or ? it’s always risky with this visa running out?
August 30, 2018 at 19:59
Until the visa is in your hand, nothing is guaranteed.
August 30, 2018 at 01:49
Peace brit All AP cases especially Africa, can be resolved half to half, in September? if posible when start AP cases resolved mid september or september early?and brit how was the chance of AP in AF good or bad? thanks
August 30, 2018 at 05:08
AP is decided case by case.
August 24, 2018 at 17:14
Hello brit
Depending on the worldwide demand, additional visas for 2018 DV program may be allocated in mid-September. Is it true or false pls tell me brite on this information
August 24, 2018 at 21:01
There will be some visas available in September from cases refused in August.
August 21, 2018 at 20:30
Hi brit, If they won’t issued Ap why we got updates, that’s meaningless
August 21, 2018 at 21:58
I don’t really understand what you are asking.
August 20, 2018 at 05:06
Hello Brit. Thanks for your help all through my case was on Ap I submitted the required documents and my status on Ceac has changed to READY what does that mean?
August 20, 2018 at 05:31
More waiting.
August 17, 2018 at 10:49
I have a question britsimon I need your urgent answer pls my friend got approved the councor officer gave him a letter with a date when he should pick up his immigrant packet but he checked his case on NVC but it showed AP he is still confused whether he should go on that date or not if it still showed Ap please advice
August 17, 2018 at 15:28
He should decide for himself.
August 16, 2018 at 19:13
Relly brit i am very sad by this chance because my Case is under put on AP from 3 nov 2017 still now the case is not solved. And by your pridection my hope is very little .
August 16, 2018 at 18:09
Yes brit there are many cases still on AP but my quation is all AP cases in AF region got cleared in the remaing month and there are enough visa pls tell me any information
August 16, 2018 at 18:19
No – all cases on AP won’t clear. As to whether all cases that clear in September will get a visa – I don’t know.
August 16, 2018 at 13:27
Hello,Raj which country.Am in Africa and mine got cleared but put in waiting list for visa
August 16, 2018 at 10:30
Hello brit all administration processing case is not clear for AF region because befor 1 month ago i send my documents but stell now the case is not processed except my case status is update 2 times so brit pls give me some clarification for AP cases thank u
August 16, 2018 at 15:29
There are MANY cases still in AP. What clarification do you need?
August 15, 2018 at 11:29
Why not reach the quota of 50,000 visas?
Why not redistribute quotas and added to the EU, as in previous years?
August 15, 2018 at 14:30
I have written several recent articles about this. I can’t keep repeating myself – so please read what I have written.
August 15, 2018 at 02:04
My question is if Ap with ds5535 will be issued
those prior juin?
August 15, 2018 at 05:49
I don’t know.
August 14, 2018 at 10:51
Thanks Brit simon for all your help I got approved today and the officer gave me a date on a letter when I should pick my passport and visa and immigrant packet for all those who are born in terrorist country and some of your country men have denied you your dream so sorry for all of you
August 14, 2018 at 15:03
Congratulations.
August 13, 2018 at 14:13
Hi birth,
I had interview on Aug 7 and the officer told to all 15 dv applicants 5 K Visa applicant and 3 SIV applicant that had interview on that day that we have very very low chance for getting visa because every case went to AP and clearing AP takes from several weeks to several months.
This year all applicants in Afghanistan went to AP even on that day the Officer propose the applicants that we can offer u for a refund of visa fees if the applicants refuse from further processing and some people even accepted but at the end the embassy changed his offer and interviewed all applicants. Now my question are as below 1 if we the afghan applicant have zero chance of issueing visa y they arrange us for interview 2 y they arranged us for medical exam 3 y they are getting our money and the US embassy officer and people know that afghan peoples have very very bad economic condition even they took barrow from thier relatives to cover the charges of medical and visa fees 4 even on the day of interview they did not issued one visa to any person do they think that all afghan people are terrorist or lier that even to one single person they have not issued any single visa 5 y from 100 % of afghan applicant on year 2018 99% have put in AP or rejected?
Kindly need your good comments on above question!
August 13, 2018 at 15:28
From the very first notification it was made clear that the process does not guarantee a visa. It was up to you whether to attend the interview & medicals or not. Certainly there were many other cases with the delay – so it should have been clear. It is unfortunate, and unfair – but life isn’t always fair.
I briefly covered the reasons why in this answer.
https://britsimonsays.com/thanks-for-the-scraping-effort/comment-page-2/#comment-136064
August 12, 2018 at 16:17
Hi birth,
I had interview today and the officer told to all 12 dv applicants that had interview today 12 Aug 2018 that we have zero chance for getting visa because every case goes to AP and clearing AP takes from several weeks to several months.
This year all applicants in Afghanistan went to AP. What do u think what would be the reason?
Thanks.
August 12, 2018 at 17:02
I think the officer was being kind in a sense – being realistic, rather than filling you full of false hope.
As I have explained several times, cases from Afghanistan present increased security risks (because of the turmoil in the region), and I imagine background checks are harder due to political changes over recent years.
August 10, 2018 at 01:34
Hi Brit!
What do you think about total amount of given visas by 30th September for DV2018? Will it reach the 50.000 visas? Or is real situation is really far from it?
August 10, 2018 at 03:56
No, they will not reach 50k
August 9, 2018 at 12:52
Hi Brit,
Is there any hope for AOS applicants from EU region? The interview is on August 16th. Thabk you very much!
August 9, 2018 at 15:10
I still don’t know.
August 8, 2018 at 11:11
Hi Dear Brit,
i am a dv 2018 winner from AS region, Afghanistan
i had my interview on August 7, the interviewer asked me to swear everything that i am gonna say is right
so she asked me are you engaged? i said the truth that in upcoming days i will get engage
then she noticed that,
will this cause any problem? because i filled the form and every other forms as single.
now my case is in AP.
Thank you very much
August 8, 2018 at 17:30
I don’t know.
August 7, 2018 at 23:46
Hi britsimon
This is last question i will ask you in two year conversion!
my question my case number is 2018AS131xx
i will have interview 15 August do you think i will have visa to all my family and everything is ready for interview all documents and information.
or do they have enough visa for us.
Many thanks to all your hard work
Best,
August 8, 2018 at 03:11
I cannot predict the outcome. AP is the biggest risk you face – many from Iraq are put on AP.
August 10, 2018 at 14:55
Dear simon
They put them in AP because the Medical Exam after the interview they will tell you to do the Medical Exam and send it to them with the passport using DHL or FedEx and i know several people but single they put them in AP without tell them to do the Medical exam.
August 10, 2018 at 15:03
THe medical should be done before the interview.
August 7, 2018 at 15:32
Hi Brit just received the below massage on my case. Looking at the statistics of visa issuance, is there hope for me? I am disturbed
“You had your consular interview on June 20 and your case was refused by our consular officer pending receipt of the medical. We received the medical on July 19, which is when you case was completed and fully qualified for a visa. By that time numbers had already dried up and we could no longer issue your visa.
If there are remaining numbers from applicants who have not pursued their visa or did not qualify at their consular interview, these will be released in September and reallocated to pending cases. A request for a number for your case was regularly submitted back on the 19th of July.
Until September we have no way of knowing if there is a number available for your case, therefore we will keep your case open until we either receive a number for your case or receive a definitive answer from the Department of State in Washington that all numbers have been exhausted”.
August 7, 2018 at 16:31
I have written recent articles about that. Read them.
August 7, 2018 at 07:35
Hello Sir, Im dv 2018AF35XXX, I got my 2NL and I’m scheduled for 13th September. My DS 260 has an issue whereby I cannot sign in. It’s been two weeks now. I called KCC yesterday and they referred me to Nairobi embassy. The embassy still didn’t know what the issue was knowing that all the information i filled was correct….. Keeps saying they don’t have the records I put…. Could this be a problem? It’s already freaking me out. Thanks
August 7, 2018 at 13:44
Lots of people are experiencing that – nothing to do with your case.