Further to my request yesterday there was a superb response of scraping around 13000 cases and we have a newly updated set of data.
Here are the latest summary numbers from the CEAC data (published on Xarthisius’ site).
By moving the date slider bar on the site, we can see the pace of visa issuance, the cases that got scheduled this month and so on.
Now we have the data, lt’s talk about the numbers.
AF region has 14137 visas issued. The quota is about 21500 (including AOS cases) so there are around 7000 visas left. However, as I recently explained, there was a large number of cases scheduled for August (about 2200), and September has at least 1100 more cases scheduled. So – as recently described the scheduled cases is why the visas running out message is happening in AF region. I do expect AF to NOT hit the quota, so there is a good chance for some additional visas to be made available to clearing AP cases in August and September.
EU region has continued to issue at exactly the pace I predicted in early may. The quota for EU (at 50,000 global) is 18300, and at least 300 of those will go to AOS. So – with two months to go, there are probably only around 1300 visas left. As I have explained, cases scheduled for August and September should be safe because visas have been allocated to each case, but EU clearing AP cases from previous months are certainly at risk. It does look like the quota will be allowed to be exceeded somewhat, but there is no guarantee of that. So – we wait and see.
AS region is FAR below its quota. There will be a shortfall, due to the travel ban. It is sad to see these visas being wasted, and especially sad for people affected by Trump’s cruel and moronic travel ban.
OC has added about 60 issued this month. and they will add at least another 70/80 in August. Because OC has a relatively high number of AOS cases, their quota of approximately 800 will be met when we see 710/720 issued in CEAC. That is confirmation of why the final VB saw only a 50 case number increase, and confirmation that there was no redistribution.
SA is a similar story to OC. Everything looks on target to hit the quota in the final two months of process.
Many thanks to all those that performed the scraping – for now we have most of the data we need but we need to keep scraping over the next couple of months.
By the way – unless their technical approach changed, DV2019 cases will not be available in CEAC until January 1, 2019. So – once we have the final DV2018 extract in early October, the scraping won’t be needed until the new year.