OK – I am obviously getting a LOT of questions and seeing a lot of confused statements from people that don’t understand how the process works. Some people are looking at the last couple of VBs and suggestion the numbers will end at 40000 – which is RUBBISH.
So – let me try to explain a little on a simple way to understand what numbers are safe for AF region.
The June VB announced 34150 as the cutoff for June. I have explained before that the pace that KCC are trying to achieve is around 2000 per month. We ended March on ~6800 (call that 7000), so they expect to issue 2000 in April, May and June from the CNs up to 34150. Make sense? OK – so let us assume the first 34150 yields 13000 visas. Sounds simplistic – but actually – that is more or less right.
The target for AF region is up to 22000 visas maximum. Some will be taken by AoS cases, so we probably have at least 6000 to 6500 for case numbers above 34150. It could be more, but I expect more issuances from the first 34000 over time, so I would rather be conservative. Ok – keep that number for a minute.
We know that there are around 350 cases per 1000 case numbers above 34000 as I explained earlier in the year here. Each case contains derivatives and we could use an average number of around 1.6 people per case.
We also can see some of the response rate as I explained in this post. That showed a response rate of around 50% – but we know that number is growing (hidden by the DS260 backlog). I expect that response rate to grow to at least 60%, perhaps 65%.
Not every case gets approved at interview – some countries (such as Ghana) are below 50% approval, whilst others such as Egypt are around 80% – but 65% is a reasonable average and is consistent with previous years.
With these assumptions we can see how many more case numbers are needed to fill the remaining visas. These are ASSUMPTIONS to paint the picture – very simplistic – but this should explain why I say AF under 60000 can feel confident and numbers above that start to get some risk.
OK – 350 cases at 65% response rate (my maximum assumption) = 228 cases per thousand that will respond.
Of those that respond 65% will be approved = 148 (let’s call that 150).
150 cases at 1.6 people per case = 240 visas per 1000 case numbers (above 34150). That is about the highest number we would see because I used a pessimistic response rate. It could be 220 or perhaps even 200 – but for now – let us use the 240.
Let us say there are 6000 visas left – 6000/240 = 25. That means KCC would need 25,000 case numbers OVER 34150 to yield the remaining 6000 visas issued. that is 59150.
Now, if the response rate is only 60% (which is likely) and we get 220 visas per thousand, and let us assume we have ~6500 left that would mean almost 30k case numbers.
So – I think AF numbers up to 60000 can think of themselves as “safe”. Numbers from 60000 to 70000 have some risk (70000 needs 180 visas per 1000 which is a response rate of 50%), and numbers above 70000 start getting very risky.
As ever, my intention is to inform, not to stress people. I wish everyone could get a visa – so best of luck to all!
By the way, people have asked how they can show support for what I do – so please read this if you would like to help me pay for a treehouse…. 🙂
Africa – estimate example