We just got entry data for the 2019 to 2021, which shows the amzing impact of the new passport requirement. It shows which countries had the biggest reductions, and using the data I show some interesting statistics including chance of selection in each country.
Data is here.
September 26, 2020 at 5:42 am
Hi sir ,there are second draw iin 2021 ?
2020 is finished?
September 26, 2020 at 11:19 pm
No second draw for DV2021.
DV2020 is not finished yet.
The next entry period starts October 1
September 26, 2020 at 6:46 am
Hi Brit,
Region: Uzbekistan
2019: 2,846,227 in total
2020: 2,572,653 in total
2021: 832,938
In my opionin, reason for such a massive change that Uzbekistan introduced a biometric passport for travel abroad on January 1, 2019. Many possible entrants didn’t obtain the biometric passport for international travel use at the time of DV Entry 2020. To my view, in upcoming dv 2022, there would be a slight increase in the number of entries from Uzbekistan.
Fyi: From January 1, 2019, Department of Migration and citizenship registration had stopped giving the exit visa for international travel to the previous biometric passports.
September 26, 2020 at 7:49 am
Good morning Sir ,
Thank you very much for your useful analysis
God bless you and your family ,
September 26, 2020 at 9:41 am
The biggest drop in Ghana and I still dint get selected …..dang
September 26, 2020 at 11:57 am
I’m a Liberian bearing a Liberian passport. What are the chances for Liberians in the next DV lottery program.
September 26, 2020 at 11:37 pm
Same as other countries in the region
September 26, 2020 at 10:44 pm
Hi Brit
You are mentioning some google docs. Could you please provide the link.
Thank you
Demok
September 27, 2020 at 4:57 am
Yep – tomorrow.
October 4, 2020 at 9:46 pm
I still do not se them. Anyway, I do not understand the following. The probability of any entry to win is the same for all entries within the same region. How come IRAN and NEPAL have almost the same number of entrants (5% difference) and almost the same number of total (with derivatives; about 10% difference), but significantly different number of selectees (45% difference)? Or BURMA vs TAIWAN. Or ALBANIA vs MOLDOVA? Would you explain that to me?
October 5, 2020 at 10:05 pm
I haven’t had the chance to upload the document yet. I will when I can – but you can look yourself too.
Iran and Nepal are limited countries – so ignore them.
Other countries can experience problems of incorrect entries, higher fraud levels and so on.
October 5, 2020 at 11:15 pm
How can one figure out the number of winning entries and the number of disqualified winning entries (holes) from, for instance, Albania? The number of winning entries and the number of disqualified antries from a region, like, for Europe?
October 5, 2020 at 11:19 pm
You can estimate it with some statistical evaluation, but really – why?
October 5, 2020 at 11:30 pm
Just interested
October 6, 2020 at 1:04 am
So, how do you estimate those numbers?
October 6, 2020 at 1:16 am
You don’t. Why do you think you need to estimate that?
October 6, 2020 at 1:26 am
To make sure that your model is correct by comparing certain predictions of your model to the results when they appear in January
October 6, 2020 at 3:13 am
You won’t be able to do that with the full number range. But anyway – no need to make sure my model is correct. It is. It’s that obvious.
September 27, 2020 at 12:14 am
Hi Brit, interesting facts.. love to learn more about it.. I like to know on what factors they decide country quota annually? May be country quota change from year to year.. fr example last time Asia, Srilanka only 750 selectees bt this time it is 1560.. als what factors influence the total no of selectees all ovr d world? One last question, they say multiple entries will be refused.. how can they check abut multiple entries??
September 27, 2020 at 5:05 am
The quotas for visa issuance are calculated for each region. Then they over or underselect on kind of a cycle.
Multiple entries could be spotted in various ways.
September 27, 2020 at 1:25 am
Sir ,
I beleive Africa will get the highest rejection because plenty people cheat with the passport number.
September 27, 2020 at 3:37 am
Ok thank you sir
September 27, 2020 at 7:57 am
Hi Britt,is it possible to win DV 2021 without playing with passport?
September 27, 2020 at 2:47 pm
No, Not unless you are able to meet one of the exceptions, which are narrow.
September 29, 2020 at 7:36 am
Hello Simon,
thank you very much for the interesting video.
3 small remarks
You confused Sint Maarten and Saint Martin. Sint Maarten had 0 Selectees. Saint Martin had 6 Selectees.
French Southern and Antarctic Lands has 0 Selectees and not 6.
The selected in % rate for South America should be 0.84%, or do I have a miscalculation? I think the totals in line 27 are not correct.
Thanks for all the effort you put in!
September 29, 2020 at 2:01 pm
Thanks Andre for catching those errors. I agree – the selected rate is 0.84%
September 30, 2020 at 10:16 am
Hi sir ,please make a video how to take pictures from our mobil in home for the dv entry .every year i take my and my kids photos in photho shop bus this year situation is different
September 30, 2020 at 2:26 pm
https://youtu.be/59uuZMpccpQ
September 30, 2020 at 2:58 pm
Thank you