This file is the end of April position – 7 months of processing – 5 months to go. I say that because it is important to remember the VBs are predictive and therefore have only 3 months to go – but we must remember that processing has 5 full months. Also that means the CEAC data itself contains two full months of cases that could not have been interviewed yet.
The issued visas for AF region is slightly below what I expected this month. I suspect that is as much about late/lazy updates from the embassies as anything else. I also noted that Kathmandu embassy issued only 1 visa in the last week – as we know they cancelled some interviews that will be rescheduled for later.
Iran does seem to have had a number of AP cases cleared this month – so the Asian issuances this month were closer to the required pace despite the loss of one processing week in Nepal.
EU has had a strong month, and given the VB movement we can see that pace will continue. To me that reinforces an earlier suspicion that EU will get to the max case number in August (as it did last year). September processing in EU would therefore be from backlog cases, AP closures and so on. OC is on the same sort of trajectory and the assumption would be the same for OC – final number in August.
OK – enjoy the data and let me know your thoughts…
Here is the data
And before you ask me to give you data on “your” embassy – it is very easy to do that yourself. So – here is how to use google sheets to analyze the data.
One more thing. If you appreciate the work I am doing in keeping you informed and assisting you through the process I would be grateful if you could read this page about the “Treehouse fund” and leave a message (which Sofia LOVES) or feel free to donate if you can afford to do so.
CEAC data extract May 1
May 17, 2015 at 12:28
Bonjour,
C’est Nadia,ma question est la suivante est ce que je savoir quand sera mon interview pour un CN 722xxx.
Merci.
May 18, 2015 at 01:17
https://britsimonsays.com/africa-estimate-update/
May 14, 2015 at 23:52
Hi mi CN is 43xxx.from AF.can i wait for an intervew this year?
May 15, 2015 at 02:38
Yes you should interview this year.
May 15, 2015 at 14:09
Merci beaucoup. J’attend alors avec impatiance mon interview.que Dieu exoce ma prière.merci
May 13, 2015 at 15:32
it s just an effort.
thank you
May 13, 2015 at 18:53
Yes, and well done – you got further than most people! NOw factor in response rates and approval rates and you will be close.
May 13, 2015 at 13:32
hello Mr brit ;
i used in my calcul ,ceac global data (Global-1-1-2015.xlsx) and cut off number may 2015 AF 32700,
they are (22000-9500)=12500 visa rest to africa in the last 4 months(june,july,august,september).
when we Considered one case have 2 visas ussued . because they are family members (Final Global DV2014.xlsx).so 12500\2=6250.
classifying of case number, 2015AF32700 in(Global-1-1-2015.xlsx) is 21205 .
so 21205+6250=27455.
274552015AF49425.
the result is the cutt off number of africa in september (49000…..49500).
my calcul is correct or no??????
sory for my language
thank you.
May 13, 2015 at 14:15
No, that is not correct. You are assuming every case proceeds (only half do) and every case is approved (around 80% will be – varying greatly by country).
These calculations are not so simplistic.
May 12, 2015 at 23:09
hello Mr brit ;
how match visa Remaining (rester pour l afrique) for africa in june,july,august, and september 2015????????
i want to do a small calculation.
thank you.
May 13, 2015 at 04:59
Once May is though you could reckon on 9000 to 9500 visas left.
May 11, 2015 at 19:14
Sorry Sir just to undestand ,if we have from July to September Curent-curent-curent , is it possible all they CN will go for interview or will received the second letter ?
May 11, 2015 at 19:38
WE will NOT see “Curent-curent-curent”. WE just won’t.
May 11, 2015 at 11:47
Hi Bri my case number is AF000701XX is there any hope
May 11, 2015 at 13:55
A small hope still, but you can only wait and see.
May 14, 2015 at 08:29
Hey BritSimon, it’s me again. i’m a lil confused now, how do u thing EU 382XX will be current in August or not? and will September VB be published or it’ll stop in August? (EU) thnx
May 14, 2015 at 08:35
Prior to the last VB I thought the EU number would be higher than they then released. I assumed they would do to jumps and not increase in September. Now with the small jump they might increase in September. We can only wait and see.
EU382XX has a great chance still.
May 14, 2015 at 08:38
till my case number is just around 2600 it’s not high jump, it’s normal i think right
?
May 14, 2015 at 15:02
We have to wait and see….
May 14, 2015 at 15:02
First – I need to see the 2NLs to get a better idea of what happened in the last VB.
Second – my thought was that they would go faster in July and then finish the EU number progression in August. They might still finish in August – OR they might have decided to spread the remaining interviews over the last two VBs. I am not certain which way they will go.
May 11, 2015 at 08:16
hi brit
a small concern, the newsletter visa does not leave my why ?, CN AF415xx when is what I can have l’interview ?.
May 11, 2015 at 14:10
The VB will be published in the next few days. I think your interview will be in August
May 11, 2015 at 05:56
Britsimon,longest time,I realy want to kno when the next visa bulletin comes out because when I check the website it shows upcoming visa bulletin and I see but may under why?
May 11, 2015 at 14:07
It isn’t released yet – it will be within a few days.
May 10, 2015 at 11:13
Hi BritSimon
Any good news for Africa high CN 2015, specifically 70XXX .
Many thanks.
May 10, 2015 at 13:49
Nothing new has happened – still a wait and see….
May 10, 2015 at 08:03
hello dear,
Does it mean if the cut off number is in july from August september is current can we apply for interview if yes how is it done?CN 69xxxxx. Thanks for all your support.
May 10, 2015 at 13:36
You just have to wait until they contact you (IF your number is below the number on the VB).
May 9, 2015 at 17:03
hi , I remember u post, that in July EU VB u were waiting 37-38k , do u still think so or does smth changed ur view?
May 9, 2015 at 20:42
Still my view.
May 11, 2015 at 14:28
that’s great ^_^ and what do u think EU 382XX interview will be in July or august? as i guess there’s a change of July interview
May 11, 2015 at 15:37
That might get in July – and if not – then August…
May 11, 2015 at 17:36
aaaaaaaaah how much im waiting for the day my number will get current ))) <3 thnx for ur reply
May 9, 2015 at 07:11
So if we have from July to September Curent-curent-curent , (what does it want to say) please.
May 8, 2015 at 23:04
Dear sir my case number is 2015af289** from Egypt do you think my number have a good chance or low chance for interview ?
May 9, 2015 at 00:47
You are on the border of where I think Egypt will cut off. All you can do is wait and hope.
May 8, 2015 at 19:55
hi Mr Brit; my case number is AF00065xxx i can hope? thank you
May 8, 2015 at 20:10
Of course you can hope – there is some risk though….
Good luck!
May 8, 2015 at 18:35
Hello Mr BritSimon;
i am winner in dv lottery 2015 my case number is 2015AF000443xx . i was compleet my ds-260 in 28 may 2014,with my old passport informations (expired in 31 march2015).now i have a new passport . my question ; i need to call kcc for unlock my ds-260 for enter my new passport informations or i wait at interview ?
sorry for my languge.
god bless you.
May 8, 2015 at 20:18
I would normally say unlock and update the passport, but you can also arrive at the interview with both passports. Given the timing with your CN, the latter is probably the best idea in your case…
May 9, 2015 at 09:34
thank you Mr brit…..
May 8, 2015 at 10:04
Hi. I unlocked my ds260 form sometimes ago and now submitted it back again but am surprised to discover that the confirmation number on it still remain the same as the old one before unlock. Is it OK at all or is any thing wrong. Thanka
May 8, 2015 at 14:15
No that is normal.
May 7, 2015 at 19:03
Hi
Can you tell me please what’s the meaning of the IncFam in the table? I got 1 here. But I have sent the DS form for me and for my wife.
Thanks a lot!
May 8, 2015 at 02:06
Inclusing family. So selectee, plus spouse and one child would be 3 in that column.
May 8, 2015 at 09:24
ok thank you!
as I see, my DS form is not beeing processed yet. that’s why I have 1 in that column. As I understand this is by default.
May 8, 2015 at 14:10
Correct. Until the case is scheduled there are no family members known.
May 6, 2015 at 21:22
Mr Brit please can you tell me what was the reponse rate of Africa when you publised this data 1may?? And what is it now ?? Thank you very much