I am posting this extract taken today because there has been a large update of cases to “in Transit” between last night and this morning. By the time I was able to extract the file this morning, a number of cases had already been accepted by several embassies. Hats off to embassies in Algiers, Lome, Kinshasha and Bern for you fast work in accepting the cases today. Sadly, you made my analysis a little harder!!!! 🙂
ON the file you can see the in Transit cases remaining per region. Unfortunately the fast work of some embassies means that these numbers are a little understated. The actual in Transit updates were a few hundred higher than these numbers suggest.
So – some observations. The big shock is EU. They had a exceptionally small jump last month to 35700 from 34125. This was a shock because I had expected around 1300 interviews to be scheduled and expected at least 50 or 60% to come from newly current cases (i.e. meaning a lower portion going to backlog cases). That would have meant that the pullback was due to KCC trying to slow down EU and would have suggested a low number of issued cases for July. However, the data tells a different story. Of the 1065 cases showing as in transit (which is less than the actual number of 2NLs due to the fast embassy updates) 75% are “backlog” cases. That tells us 2 things. First, July will add around 2000 issued visas for EU. Second, the backlog cases remain a big problem. Both of those things are bad news for EU high case numbers.
The other interesting point for EU watchers is the pace of issuances in the first few days of June. In less than a full week, EU has issued 536 visas. At that pace they will easily issue 2000+ visas in June and given the July scheduled interviews we see are scheduled, the end of July should hit 15500 visas issued.
Next, for AF region the number of in Transit cases appears to be low. In reality, the fast work of a few embassies has hidden a few hundred 2NLs. However, even adding those in (based on some deductions) it seems AF only got 1500/1600 2NLs this month. I really hoped KCC would schedule more which would have proved they had notice the no show problem and were taking steps to avoid a shortfall in issued visas. This file shows they have not reacted that way – which is disheartening. We could end up with a cutoff AND a shortfall – which would be a cruel waste of visa places. We can only hope that this will force them to have a big jump for AF in the final VB.
Asia, OC and SA are progressing as expected – no big revelations.
It’s late at night, I’m tired and I won’t be working on predictions tonight. I might update my guesstimates once I have looked at the data more carefully.
Here is the data.
June 5, 2015 at 07:26
thank you so much brit 😉
June 5, 2015 at 07:32
thank you so much
June 5, 2015 at 07:34
Thanks a million times britsimon…but does this data mean good for AF this month?well waiting for ur guestimates update
June 5, 2015 at 18:31
We will see the real VB in a few days….
June 5, 2015 at 07:36
thanks for yor update
June 5, 2015 at 07:40
Thank u brit for update. Well how do u think , will EU reach till 38500? Pls tell us its really important to see ur view
June 5, 2015 at 18:29
We will see in a few days….
June 5, 2015 at 07:45
Hey brit, does it mean EU vb will be bad for august? Howdo u think will it reach till 38300?
June 5, 2015 at 18:29
We will see in a few days….
June 5, 2015 at 08:07
Any chance from nepal for cs 783×
June 5, 2015 at 18:28
Not a big chance – wait and see.
June 5, 2015 at 08:19
For Af region what does the 7555 in ready mean ??
June 5, 2015 at 18:28
Cases that have submitted their DS260 and are waiting for interviews (or in some cases were no shows for their interviews).
June 7, 2015 at 07:45
Salam sudan
kindly send me your number on [email protected]
am from sudan .
June 5, 2015 at 08:20
Asia next vb expectations? ????
June 5, 2015 at 18:28
Did that a few days ago. – 8XXX
June 5, 2015 at 08:24
simon hello please can you explain a bit the last three columns including ” split Backlog “, ” Backlog cases” and “New cases” . What these data mean. thank you for your work!!!
My CN is AF624XX. I still have chance???
June 5, 2015 at 18:27
The three columns explain how many 2NLs were backlog as opposed to newly current.
Your number is a bit risky – wait and see…
June 5, 2015 at 08:32
maybe that was expected for EU as there was 2.5 months’ clearance of backlog cases for EU? So if this month it is expected to be 1 month’s clearance then probably the backlog cases will be much less?
What do you think?
June 5, 2015 at 18:24
That is possible BUT the surveys suggested not a full 2.5 months was cleared. I do expect the backlog to go down – but I have been saying that for months and it doesn’t go down….
It isn’t linear….
June 5, 2015 at 18:32
I saw from the survey that mid jan to end of march cns were cleared. weren’t they?
June 5, 2015 at 18:48
Not all no. Some from March does not mean ALL cases in March. In reality there are some from February still not cleared.
June 5, 2015 at 18:53
I saw someone in your blog reported that his friend’s end of march submission was cleared.
Anyway, I do not think we have a representative sample to correctly judge the March coverage. agree?
June 5, 2015 at 20:45
Not all cases process at the same speed. What is clear is that not all cases up to the end of March are cleared. Some are, some aren’t and some February ones aren’t I haven’t tried to quantify that.
June 5, 2015 at 08:39
hi brit
I want to know if your predictions remain the same with respect to this new data will ?, 42XXX being always in the month of August ?, thank you to confirm please.
June 5, 2015 at 18:23
My high end for AF (44000) looks a bit optimistic now. In a few days we will know for sure….
June 5, 2015 at 08:53
So what would be the EU range for next VB 🙁 ?
June 5, 2015 at 09:04
simon,
what 883 in transit for af means?
June 5, 2015 at 18:22
2NLs
June 5, 2015 at 09:06
simon, what the 17 in tranfer means?
June 5, 2015 at 18:21
transfers from one embassy to another
June 5, 2015 at 09:07
simon, you think there will be a big jump for AF this month?
June 5, 2015 at 18:21
no
June 5, 2015 at 09:11
AF 17 in tranfer means? pls explain for me
June 5, 2015 at 18:21
transfers from one embassy to another
June 5, 2015 at 09:59
hallo sir,
which means its impossible for AF region to hit 40s this month?
June 5, 2015 at 18:19
No. I did not say that – but the upper range of my earlier esitimates looks optimistic now.
June 5, 2015 at 10:00
You have work over time and you need some rest. Pls rest! Because we need more information in these two months
June 5, 2015 at 18:18
Trying to rest too…. 😉
June 5, 2015 at 10:04
you mean some embassies have hidden a few hundred 2ndls? or its me who is not understanding the phrase? why should they hide? i wonder what could be the intention of that?
June 5, 2015 at 18:18
Not hidden. By accepting them quickly the changed the status from in Transit to ready – and therefore they don’t appear in the in transit column/.
June 5, 2015 at 10:29
Hello Simon Is there hope My CN AF405XX ?
June 5, 2015 at 18:16
100% safe.
June 5, 2015 at 10:33
so no chance for EU375XX? or maybe September?
June 5, 2015 at 18:15
Still borderline between August and September. Stop worrying.
June 5, 2015 at 11:12
There is one thing that I will change if I have power. Last years there were less selected people so they didn’t fill the quota. They selected more (than needed) 2014 and 2015 and because of that just some of them would get their GC. Right now they have less people (from lottery) than they wanted because of those previous years when they didn’t fill the quota. I think it would be fair to give GC for everyone who qualify from winners 2014 and 2015. I know that it is not working like that,but It would be great. Those are just my thoughts.
June 5, 2015 at 18:08
Yep – nice thought – just against the law….
June 5, 2015 at 11:38
hey britsimon
just wondering something
if regions whether it be Oceania/Africa for one reason or another, has visa spaces available, is it possible KCC would give those spaces to other regions, i know all regions have quotas, but isn’t it possible that KCC could give a few hundred here and there to other regions even if they have met their quotas, it’s not an obvious exceeding of their quotas and benefit overall if for some reason some regions waste spaces?
just some food for thought what do you think?
June 5, 2015 at 18:06
That is controlled by laws and it is slightly complex. It isn’t possible for KCC to decide that for themselves.
June 5, 2015 at 11:45
🙁 so do you think AF472xx is now risky?
June 5, 2015 at 18:06
No.
June 5, 2015 at 12:02
so u mean 563xx no chance now???
June 5, 2015 at 17:54
I did not say that.
June 5, 2015 at 20:06
Merieme laissé moi ton mail
June 5, 2015 at 22:23
[email protected]
June 5, 2015 at 22:48
and nina if u ahve face book give me urs i will add u
June 5, 2015 at 12:40
Hi Britsimon,
Could you tell me how is it possible that so many case numbers (516) between SAXXX1 and SA1175 have a “At NVC” status. Is that because they still don’t get the interview schedduled? Because they didn’t submit form DS260 on time? Because they didn’t get ready with the paperwork?
I would understand the “At NVC” status for the last 100 or 200 CN because of the last one or two recent VB but the older CN?? I don’t catch it… The older ones should have a different status in case of the situation discribed on my 3 questions above.
I am really wondering if I get still a chance with SA16XX?
Many thanks for your comments.
June 5, 2015 at 17:49
Cases show at NVC when they are not scheduled. Either they are:
Not current yet
Submitted the DS260 late
Did not submit the DS260 at all.
That is why….
As for your number – it is in a risky range – but you might get lucky – you can only wait and see…
June 5, 2015 at 13:48
Thanks BRIT , I have two questions to put to you :
-how manny visas remain for Africa up today 5 june 2015?
-How many CN exists between 36 500 and 56 876?
June 5, 2015 at 17:48
The calculation you are trying to do is not how it works.
36500 is the cutoff for end of July.
There are more than one person per case number
Not all cases get approved
and so on….
June 5, 2015 at 14:23
Thank you for every effort you are putting. Most likely by the end of June we shall see AF at 12,000 visas issued., That means a balance of 8000. Are we likely to see a jump of at least 15k for the remaining 2 VBs.
June 5, 2015 at 17:43
Not 15k each VB – but 15K between the two is the MINIMUM I would expect.
June 5, 2015 at 17:45
no chance now for 563xx??
June 5, 2015 at 17:51
This data doesn’t say that.
June 5, 2015 at 15:26
no big revelations!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! what will happen to Asia???? final VB???
June 5, 2015 at 17:41
There was nothing in this file that made that any clearer above the file released last week. The final number in AS region depends, as I have said before, on Iran…
June 5, 2015 at 18:36
So what is the minimum cut off for AS if Iran progress well?
June 5, 2015 at 18:47
Can’t see lower than 10k
June 5, 2015 at 20:53
Please sir and by 10k you mean 10,999 or 10,000. Thank you for your hard work!
June 6, 2015 at 11:04
hello sir what is the meaning 10k
June 5, 2015 at 18:14
Hello Simon Is there hope in month _August_ My CN AF405XX ?
June 5, 2015 at 18:25
Yes.
June 7, 2015 at 21:54
Manto we are in same range ,my cn is 404**are you from Cameroon?
June 5, 2015 at 18:33
Hi Simon Is there hope in month _August_ My CN AS80**?
Tnx
June 5, 2015 at 18:47
Yes
June 5, 2015 at 18:36
thank you so much brit simon for your great effort ,waiting for your guestimates update.
June 5, 2015 at 18:40
2015af496++
June 5, 2015 at 22:18
i wait for you pls simon thankx
June 5, 2015 at 18:55
If the next VB jump between 39000 and 44000 does my CN Af602xx still have a chance
June 5, 2015 at 21:08
Wait and see
June 5, 2015 at 19:35
how about Af602xx please?any hope?
June 5, 2015 at 20:42
Wait and see.
June 6, 2015 at 16:59
Yes i’m waiting but please tell me if i have a chance to get an interview
June 6, 2015 at 21:18
You have some chance – but I cannot be certain one way or the other – so – you will have to watch until the last VB (less than 6 weeks from now).
June 5, 2015 at 19:40
Hello Simon,
I believe that if the next VB was less than 40xxx for AF, the last VB can’t go over 42xxx. I feel there is a plan to issue less than intended visas. I remember when I called KCC first time in June 2014 and asked them if I should start working on my case. She said you number is 44xxx, it is a really high number, you shouldn’t waste your money and wait and see how things go. Now I feel scared because now I know that even at that time she was able to figure our that my number is risky, even though last year Africa hit my number in June.
What do you think? and based on the new information, how safe is my number?
I know, I have asked the same question before, but you know how stressful each of us is.
kind regards,
Sue
June 5, 2015 at 20:40
I really find it hard to believe that a KCC employee said those things a year ago. What could have been meant by not wasting your money – there was no money being spent or asked for at that time. At that time AF in DV2014 was heading toward 81XXX cutoff and the ladies at KCC have no information and give no information that speculates about case numbers. Something about those comments does not add up.
Now, the theory about not being able to get over 42XXX if it doesn’t hit 40XXX in the next VB – that is completely incorrect.
I have told you before your number is not at risk. It isn’t but you seem intent on scaring yourself rather than listening to me. So – I will tell you again for the last time. Your number is safe. Plenty of people have genuine reason to be concerned. You do not. Please Sue – listen….
June 5, 2015 at 20:46
the employee said that. At that time I knew nothing about the process so I was calling them each week with new questions. However, what are you saying each time is what makes me less stressful. I LISTEN. Thank you for kindness.
June 5, 2015 at 19:42
so do you think AF704xx is now risky?
June 5, 2015 at 20:32
Yes.
June 5, 2015 at 20:44
What do u think about the last case number?
June 5, 2015 at 19:47
The issue is still hot for af cn above45000,,only prayers and God wiling is needed. My dream a becoming thinner each day i see the data. Anyway am between 50xxx to 5008x,still hoping my dream will be alive,and i will land to the soil of milk and honey
June 5, 2015 at 21:25
Hi Brit! what do you think now about EU38900??
Could have any change?
Thank you!!
June 6, 2015 at 21:12
Yes, that number still has some chance.
June 5, 2015 at 22:14
Hello M.BritSimon
AF62*** still got a little chance or not at all ?
Thank you
June 6, 2015 at 21:11
Still some chance…. wait and see…
June 5, 2015 at 22:27
Hello my case number is 57*** now is risky??
June 6, 2015 at 21:11
A little risky, yes.
June 5, 2015 at 22:41
Can we see a jump of 20k for AF in the last VB ? Possible or not ?
June 6, 2015 at 21:10
Doubtful.
June 5, 2015 at 23:05
so do you think AF528xx is now risky?
June 6, 2015 at 21:10
No.
June 5, 2015 at 23:08
This is a different year all together anything above 50k is very risky it seems.do u think I have good chances Mr Brits with my Af52***?
June 6, 2015 at 21:10
Yes
June 5, 2015 at 23:27
If you can estimate the possibility of CN AS112xx to be current is it above the 75% or less?
June 6, 2015 at 04:49
I don’t do percentqges. You have a good chance…
June 6, 2015 at 01:52
hello MR brit
this comment for sue Ali
i am from algeria ,i called kcc in 12 may 2014 for confirm my winning she asked me for my personal information then she say you are winners in dv lottery 2015 you case number is 2015AF000443xx ,wait at 19 may to compleet your online form (DS260) that s all what she sayed .i don t think the kcc employee know thing about cutt of bulletin of any month special in one year a go. becaus thous are many parameters Affect ,response rate ….exct .but now you can know this.
excuse me for my language.
thank you for all and good luck for all
god bless you MR brit
June 6, 2015 at 08:03
Hi brit sir
I saw CEAC data which you published the the day before .In that data KDU (Nepal ) got 3273 visa including family upto CNs as6474( some of them got visa ,some are ready,some are in AP and 95 was refused from 3273) . this means min.only 327 visa is remaining .am i right sir ? if this is right then Nepal will increase upto case number around 71-7200 for August VB. Plz sir How is your Prediction of Nepal for August VB
thank u .
June 6, 2015 at 20:08
No you are not right. Ready does not mean issued. Only issued means issued – and Nepal have around 2400 issued./
June 6, 2015 at 14:20
salam
i have chanc 2015af496++
when rondivo inchallah
June 6, 2015 at 15:05
Hi, simon
As we know that kcc issued 55000 visa every year. But no one country get more then 7% of 50000. My question is about remaining other 5000 visa.what they do those 5000 visa…..i am from nepal with cn 784# any chances or not…..
June 6, 2015 at 16:11
The 55000 number is reduced to 50000 by a program called Nacara. In practice, some of the visas reserved for Nacara are used by DV. Your number is looking more and more risky all you can do is wait and see what happens.