I am posting this extract taken today because there has been a large update of cases to “in Transit” between last night and this morning. By the time I was able to extract the file this morning, a number of cases had already been accepted by several embassies. Hats off to embassies in Algiers, Lome, Kinshasha and Bern for you fast work in accepting the cases today. Sadly, you made my analysis a little harder!!!! 🙂
ON the file you can see the in Transit cases remaining per region. Unfortunately the fast work of some embassies means that these numbers are a little understated. The actual in Transit updates were a few hundred higher than these numbers suggest.
So – some observations. The big shock is EU. They had a exceptionally small jump last month to 35700 from 34125. This was a shock because I had expected around 1300 interviews to be scheduled and expected at least 50 or 60% to come from newly current cases (i.e. meaning a lower portion going to backlog cases). That would have meant that the pullback was due to KCC trying to slow down EU and would have suggested a low number of issued cases for July. However, the data tells a different story. Of the 1065 cases showing as in transit (which is less than the actual number of 2NLs due to the fast embassy updates) 75% are “backlog” cases. That tells us 2 things. First, July will add around 2000 issued visas for EU. Second, the backlog cases remain a big problem. Both of those things are bad news for EU high case numbers.
The other interesting point for EU watchers is the pace of issuances in the first few days of June. In less than a full week, EU has issued 536 visas. At that pace they will easily issue 2000+ visas in June and given the July scheduled interviews we see are scheduled, the end of July should hit 15500 visas issued.
Next, for AF region the number of in Transit cases appears to be low. In reality, the fast work of a few embassies has hidden a few hundred 2NLs. However, even adding those in (based on some deductions) it seems AF only got 1500/1600 2NLs this month. I really hoped KCC would schedule more which would have proved they had notice the no show problem and were taking steps to avoid a shortfall in issued visas. This file shows they have not reacted that way – which is disheartening. We could end up with a cutoff AND a shortfall – which would be a cruel waste of visa places. We can only hope that this will force them to have a big jump for AF in the final VB.
Asia, OC and SA are progressing as expected – no big revelations.
It’s late at night, I’m tired and I won’t be working on predictions tonight. I might update my guesstimates once I have looked at the data more carefully.
Here is the data.
June 10, 2015 at 13:39
Hi simon in the ECAC data release of April 25, 2015, you think that the total number of family members is 46935 but in your last issue of 6 June 2015, that number became 32,360 !!!! I did not understand. Please can you explain it in a few ?? thank you. What do you think of my case number AF624xx ????
June 10, 2015 at 15:21
The CEAC is not always a full file – so if I don’t include all the numbers up to 89799, the numbers are less. The April file was a full file.
Your number still has some chance – you can only wait and see….
June 10, 2015 at 13:48
VB is out!!!
June 10, 2015 at 13:48
June 10, 2015 at 13:57
So disappointed about AS number
June 10, 2015 at 18:03
Hi BritSimon according with last VB how safe is in your opinion my SA 0000148x?
June 10, 2015 at 21:15
Today was a good VB for SA. So – SA148X has a chance – we will have to wait and see…
June 11, 2015 at 01:02
I agree wIth you that today was a good day for SA VB, but the whole year has been very disappointing for the Region. I just have a doubt that I will appreciate if you explain me. Last year (DV-2014) SA region called 1750 numbers in VB by August, why this year (DV-2015) decreased the VB by 400 numbers for the same annual DV. Why SA region has been affected by KCC in decreasing VB cases in almost 30%.
June 11, 2015 at 06:29
I don’t really have a good answer for you…. it is a small region so I have not studied it well enough. We will only know more later.
June 10, 2015 at 21:47
My cn 685** have achance or no
June 12, 2015 at 09:10
Thanks for ur assisting and really appreciated. I tried to log in DS-260 Form but the message showing that “the case information you entered does not match our record. Is it the error message ? Case Number 2016AS9xx and DOB is correct. Pls assist on this. Thanks.
June 12, 2015 at 16:28
Sounds like the case number needs to be with the leading zeros – exactly as it shows on your 1NL.
June 12, 2015 at 16:47
Thanks for your reply. I key in the full cade number 2016AS000009xx exactly starting from the very first time. Sorry that I did not write properly. Pls assist whether it is DS260 error message or something else.. thanks again.
June 12, 2015 at 17:29
I don’t know then…. try emailing or calling KCC.
June 12, 2015 at 17:37
Thank you for ur reply. Will try to contact with KCC ..
June 13, 2015 at 11:54
BRAVO SIMON, LOOKING AT THE BALANCE VISA FOR AF DO YOU THINK KCC NEXT UPDATE CAN HIT AF65XXX TO AF66XXX? 2. I WANT TO KNOW IF THE DENSITY B/W 44250 TO 66000 IS TOO HIGH OR LOW? 3. CAN KCC ADD 21K TO 22K ON THE FINAL VB? AND WHY AF WILL NOT GO CURRENT? PLS ANS ME AS USUAL.
June 13, 2015 at 16:24
June 13, 2015 at 20:25
i am doing some calculation but i need your help with one thing ? how can i know the number of cases of AF between 34xxx and 66xxx ?
thanks and god bless you
June 13, 2015 at 21:55
Check my May 25 file which is a complete file with all the numbers.
June 14, 2015 at 02:17
i need more help please i checked your 25 file but still i cant get how many AF case between 34xxx and 66xxx . i would apppriciate if you get me the specific numbet
god bless you
June 14, 2015 at 03:02
10827 cases (about 23,000 people)
June 14, 2015 at 05:28
ok Simon i want your opinion
as you said 10827 cases (about 23,000 people).so to feel the qouta if KKC issu another 10827 in the next three monthes added to 10618 you mentioned above the total will be 21445
is 66xxx will be still has chance if we look it like this way ??
i am sorry to bother you cause i can see you do alot of effort for all peapole
June 15, 2015 at 06:03
could you give me our opinion please Simon
June 14, 2015 at 03:57
Police Clearance Certificate is needed only for applicant? Or both Applicant and Spouse and Children? Thanks for your help all along.
June 14, 2015 at 04:16
Applicant, and spouse and children over 16
June 14, 2015 at 04:36
I stayed oversea (Country A) about 8 years and recently I moved back to my original country (Country B) and now about 7 months already at Country B. It’s a bit difficult for us to apply Police Certificate of Country A as they need the fingers prints. Do I need to submit Police Certificate of both Country A and B? Thanks again for ur help.
June 15, 2015 at 10:09
What do think about 2015AS90xx ??? According to the last VB (ASIA : 7,650) for the July -August it’s not sounds good…..
June 15, 2015 at 17:18
Should be fine (as long as it is not Nepal)
June 16, 2015 at 05:33
when will you publish the new CEAC file?
June 16, 2015 at 14:07
June 17, 2015 at 14:58
hello sir my No is AF 2016 32xxxxx when can I get my interview.thanks
June 17, 2015 at 17:07
I’m assuming that is an AF32XXX number – in that case probably around early summer next year – we will know better nearer the time.