CEAC data update March 12
This extract was taken yesterday as a partial month update to see how the progress is going. As you can see in 10 days they have added almost 2000 visas. That is a good pace – so they are up to the pace I have explained they need to be hitting (just over 5000 visas per month). We should see around 18000 by the end of March – and that will leave 6 months of processing left for the remaining 32000 visas. So – they are where they want to be.
We need to be aware that a few embassies are not updating correctly – actual issued number is slightly higher than this and of course AoS cases are not shown in this data (which will take around 2000 visas) so – in this data we will perhaps see 50,000 by the end of the year, but the actual issued could be 52500 or so (which is what we use to calculate quotas.
Remember also that the majority of AP cases get issued, given enough time – so most of the 2903 number for AP will also be added in later (and will help achieve the 5000 per month pace).
If you look at the data file (which is linked below), you will also see a startling number of cases still showing “at NVC”. These cases are either late submissions of the DS260 or people who will never respond to their selection (non responses). The non responses happen every year – and is the biggest unknown factor in our estimates. The higher the non responses, the higher the final cutoff. I’ll post some more analysis in a week or two once the 2NLs are sent out.
Here is the data
And before you ask me to give you data on “your” embassy – it is very easy to do that yourself. So – here is how to use google sheets to analyze the data.
March 13, 2015 at 21:52
Thank you so much for your great effort
Was windering if you can give a comment on Af specially for egypt after the update
Thank you again
March 13, 2015 at 21:54
Cairo is moving fast, and as usual is approving a high percentage of cases. Did you want some other comment?
March 14, 2015 at 08:37
Hhhj no thank you
Just what every egyptian concern to know issued visas till now to know if they are close to reach the quota
March 13, 2015 at 23:18
how about iranian cases on AP . Is it still as bad as last year for more hope to those ” us ” who have a case number higher than ” 10.000 rest of Asia ” . or it is getting better and most of AP cases approvied . to losing hope to be current
March 14, 2015 at 00:22
Iran AP appears to be going slowly again…
March 14, 2015 at 00:10
HI Simon. thank you for your informative posts.
in Africa, 13739 case are still showing at NVC. that means about 65% of all current cases (13739/21204). let us suppose 2000 out of the 13739 will turn to transit in few weeks for the interview of May. that will leave 11739 case at NVC. that is 55% of of all current case. as you already predicated the response rate will be about 60% (if I’m not wrong). that means 15% of the 55% will respond.15%*21204 all current cases will give us 3180 cases. by 9 April they will solve most of the back-load which means at beginning of April when they want to decide the cut of of visa bulletin they will have about 3180 current processed case so they will not need new case to increase visa bulletin like just what happened to SOUTH AMERICA,and the CARIBBEAN last visa bulletin.
what do you think sir?
March 14, 2015 at 00:26
Yes – I am thinking sort of along those lines. I will know better in 2 weeks time when they send the 2NLs. I will have confirmation of the number of 2NLs they send each month. Also we will see whether the backlog will be clearing or not. – so we should wait 2 weeks to have solid data and I will do predictions again.
March 14, 2015 at 00:31
oki we will see,but I’m not really optimistic about how things r going on.
I really do appreciate your support. thank you alot
March 14, 2015 at 01:10
What about the nepal final cutoff?? Is there any hope for those selectee. Whose CN lise above 8000??
March 14, 2015 at 05:30
March 14, 2015 at 03:08
What about the EGYPT final cutoff? Is there any hope for those selected. Whose have CN above 29000 till 30000 after the update?
March 14, 2015 at 05:28
I think the cutoff for Egypt will fall about 27.5 to 28.5
March 14, 2015 at 03:25
What is your prediction for the next month’s EU number? Wondering whether it is going to increase with quick pace or not.
March 14, 2015 at 05:27
I’ll be refining that prediction in 1 to 2 weeks time. Now is too early.
March 14, 2015 at 04:50
Britsimon Will they ever clear the backlog especially for AF, It looks like the low cns are sending their ds 260 now in time for their interview scheduling which scares the back benchers, remember my cn is af58xxx, it gona be a long anxious wait
March 14, 2015 at 05:26
In a week or so we will see how har they have got with DS260 submission – let’s see then.
March 14, 2015 at 04:57
Thank you for the extraction of the data …. i can see how amazingly only a few cases have been
processed up to NOW roughly i am guessing the response rate to be lower than last year … we will
know more when the second letters are sent …
March 14, 2015 at 05:25
March 14, 2015 at 06:18
You think in a week or two it will be possible to know the ds 260 submitted so far ?
March 14, 2015 at 15:17
Not entirely – but we will know more data.
March 14, 2015 at 06:42
What is the next VB for Asia and up to what case number is consider as safe for Nepal. My case number is around as7860 . safe or not ?
March 14, 2015 at 15:19
I’ll be publishing predictions in a week or two. The following link answers you other question https://britsimonsays.com/update-regarding-nepal-and-asia/
March 14, 2015 at 07:20
Thank you for this report!
I see that most of Iranians going thru AP and still pending.. in ADB embassy
Is it going to affect other cases and slow down the processing others?
I have checked some of these cases, and I saw “Please send us Joint sponsor’s original I-864” !!! Why they are asking to provide I-864??
March 14, 2015 at 15:28
Where did you see the I864 request?
March 14, 2015 at 16:04
USA embassywebsite in ABD via Check Visa Status page : http://www.abudhabiivo.net/
take any CN those having AP, and try to check one by one and you wil see the request
if you want I can give you the CN and you can check by yourself.
March 14, 2015 at 16:38
Interesting. It is bizarre – the 864 is not used for DV cases.
March 14, 2015 at 17:02
Yah, so why the embassy askin for it??
March 14, 2015 at 18:33
It is probably just that the online system is coded for “needs an affidavit” which in 95% of immigration cases is the 864 – just not in DV cases.
March 14, 2015 at 08:33
Hey bristismon,I really want to comment on your work and say we all appreciate your efforts…but please what do you think about the Af region especially Cameroon???
. I really am anxious,hope I get a 2nl soon…we waiting for your prediction too…my cn is 404**
March 14, 2015 at 15:29
That CN is 100% safe. Most likely July interview, possibly June
March 14, 2015 at 09:32
what is the next VB for Africa and when it will be?
March 14, 2015 at 15:31
It will be published around April 10 – I’ll be publishing predictions in a week or two from now.
March 14, 2015 at 09:58
It seems your gonna have more solid predictions by the end of the month..but for the time being. .any thoughts about Yemen fortune on this?
March 14, 2015 at 15:32
Yemenis only need to be concerned about getting their interview location changed at this time – other than that – it depends on case number.
March 14, 2015 at 11:12
what dose mean af cases 39266 and max case number 89799
March 14, 2015 at 16:18
There are “holes” between the case numbers so there are 39266 cases – spread over the whole range of numbers up to 89799
March 14, 2015 at 11:38
Some small analysis for which I need your input.
Assuming response rate of 60% for EU too, there are still 4,298 cases to be received below 30,300 CNs, which is 4,298*1.82=7,829 winners including family members. 7,829+12,539 (already current and processed cases based on this CEAC update) = 20,368. Assuming 75% visa issuance rate we will have 15,100 visas, and about 4,400 visas to be issued for EU. Working backwards, for issuing 4,400 visas about 5,000 plus more CNs will be needed for EU, which will be aboveEU 30,300. Please correct me if I am wrong!
March 14, 2015 at 16:32
You are on the right lines – yes. The 60% response sounds a little low (but we don’t know that very well), the 75% sounds a little high – but yep, the method is correct. If we knew the response rate better we could make a pretty precise guess – but we don’t know it well. However, if you look at the 1/1/2015 CEAC data that I published you can see we already know the case numbers that would be within the 5000 number you mention. That would include cases up to 43923. You can see now why I have said in the past that EU is the closest to going current – BUT again – we don’t know the non response rate.
By the way, marriages and births will reduce the highest CN, and AoS cases take about 5% of the overall EU numbers – so around 600 cases. Those two factors would reduce the 43923 to about 42000. And again – to labor the point, a higher or lower response rate will vary that…
March 14, 2015 at 17:40
As of April visa bulletin the response rate for EU seems at 35%. Do you know how much was the response rate for EU for the whole DV 2014 period?
Are not AOR cases reflected in the CEAC data?
March 14, 2015 at 18:36
I’m trying to work out the final response rates for last year – we don’t have the same level of data.
Adjustment of status cases will always show at NVC
March 14, 2015 at 19:14
When you think you will have the last year’s response rate estimate? Will you please share that info after work out?
March 14, 2015 at 21:58
I can only guess it. I’m going to use some data to get accurate about it and I’ll post that in a couple of weeks time.
March 15, 2015 at 07:14
thanks a lot, Simon! I will be expecting the info from you.
March 14, 2015 at 12:00
so there will be no chance for AF78xxx.
I lost hope
March 14, 2015 at 16:32
Don’t give up quite yet. Let’s see if the response rate has been hit by the DS260…
March 14, 2015 at 13:31
I appreciated your efforts
My case number 227×× from egy complete ds260 30/5
Can you predicted my interview
March 14, 2015 at 16:35
Probably June, maybe July
March 14, 2015 at 17:37
Thank you so much for your great effort.
can you give a comment on Af specially for that cases which are ready since Oct.(63) cases , Nov. (64) cases ,& Dec.(132) cases ?
March 14, 2015 at 18:11
I’m not sure which you mean exactly – but some cases will never go for interview….
March 14, 2015 at 17:49
Will be resumed the numbers for SA? Is it possible that remain in 1025 till the end? what about 114x? Thanks for all. I’m really worried.
March 14, 2015 at 18:36
It will resume….
March 14, 2015 at 18:22
I mean that cases which are ready since Oct.(63) cases , Nov. (64) cases ,& Dec.(132) cases not went for interview….
March 14, 2015 at 20:27
Thank you very much Mr.BritSimon
I would like to as about the big case number for Africans AF80xxx , are there possibility of getting chance to interviewed this year ?
March 14, 2015 at 20:40
Very risky number – you can only wait.
March 15, 2015 at 11:42
Just a question regarding how you count ready numbers: shouldn’t you remove all ready from refused cases?
I.e. check 2015EU24: it’s refused this means the 3 on the READY column that should be ignored. If you count this way there are 800 ready less on EU. This doesn’t change anything for any number or prediction, obviously, but still.
Or am i missing something?
BTW thanks for your effort. Let’s hope i’ll be extracted with a lower cn on next DV.
March 15, 2015 at 23:24
Yes I am making a change to the extract routine over the next couple of weeks.
March 16, 2015 at 06:19
I don’t know the routine but maybe it’s even easier to use a SUMIF with “ready” as condition instead of Subtotal function in Excel.
March 16, 2015 at 14:11
March 16, 2015 at 06:25
My case number is 272XX is there any hope for this number ?
March 16, 2015 at 14:11
Yes, very good chance.
March 16, 2015 at 10:51
my case no is AS139** do I have the chance for 2nd letter thanks
March 16, 2015 at 14:14
It is a risky range, you can only wait and see…
March 16, 2015 at 13:02
There are CN still showing “In Transit” from last VB “March”
since most of the CN in the same VB been updated with the CON details.
Is there any problem or it is just a normal issue ??
March 16, 2015 at 14:15
It just shows some embassy is not updating Ceac properly. No issue.
March 16, 2015 at 15:59
my case no is AF 55XXX do I have the chance for 2nd letter
March 16, 2015 at 16:02
Yes – 100%
March 16, 2015 at 20:03
My case number is AF63*** will I ever make it ? what are my chances ?
March 16, 2015 at 20:33
Very good chances – relax and watch the VB progress….
March 16, 2015 at 21:02
hi Britsimon Britsimonsays ,At first, Thank you very much for all that you do to help us
Actually i have 2 questions
-My CN is AF76900 so tell me is there a chance ?
-( USAFIS Immigration Services ) -if i apply with this ,is it safe and whene can i see if i’m selected and where .is it have a same condition like dv lottery ?
and thank’s again
March 16, 2015 at 22:07
There is a small chance that you get an interview with that case number.
USAFIS Immigration Services is not an official way to enter the lottery so I would not recommend using their service.
March 16, 2015 at 22:18
so tell me Britsimon Britsimonsays . what i can do to apply in this year ? i mean i have no time to wait for next year
March 16, 2015 at 22:23
There is nothing you can do to get in to DV2016. So – the fastest thing is to apply this October, then those results will be released in May of 2016 and the processing for winners will be between October 2016 and September 2017.
No private company can speed that up or offer you a better chance of being picked – and only around 1 in 50 entries is picked. So – if you have no time to wait, the lottery is not a good option for you.
March 16, 2015 at 23:19
thank you Mr BritSimon
March 17, 2015 at 15:48
hi britsimon.thank you for all that you do. my cn is AF 59xxx, is there a chance to get a 2nd letter.thanks
March 17, 2015 at 16:52
Yes – an excellent chance.
March 17, 2015 at 18:35
Hello BritSimon, I am really sorry for my past message, it was just after the exit(release) of the VB and I was totally discouraged and loses some hope, I am sincerely sorry I did not so mean. Otherwise thank you for your beautiful work and I hope that I would be current very true that I have no chance with my big CN AF62xxx
March 17, 2015 at 18:45
AF62XXX has an excellent chance….
March 18, 2015 at 08:56
Enter your comment here…please sir I am the guy who missed the interview in accra. I checked ma application statues on ceac and it shows the date when i entered the lotterry in 2013. It also states that ma case was updated on 4th febuary 2015. Why will my case be updated, dies it has any implication as i still await n hope the embassy shd reschedule me?
March 18, 2015 at 12:26
wow, why did you miss you interview? anyway i also rescheduled my date although i did not get the date i wanted. come on board
March 19, 2015 at 06:23
Enter your comment here…thanks aiguo i hav read everything abt u in the forum, i hav read from pages 1 to 180 of th gh forum, ba it always states that i hav no sufficient privelleges to comment. Ba halla forum members for me. Its quite unfortunate ba accra is very strict
March 19, 2015 at 08:37
wow. am surprised anyway. keep trying because we will love to have you around.
March 19, 2015 at 16:57
Enter your comment here…aigue ur august schedule is cool dont be scared, u will get d visas. I missed ma interview bcos i didnt know abt ceac and all that, so i was jst waiting for a notification frm kcc and i never recieved a notification mail so wen i curiously checked ma esc i found ma passed scheduled. The embassy put me on wait list with no garantee. So pls tell forum members to always check d esc and not pay too much attention to th kcc email notification.
March 20, 2015 at 03:27
sure. its well bro and keep the Hope alive. Anyway when did you notify them and have you tried to send additional emails.
March 20, 2015 at 09:59
Enter your comment here…i notified them on jan 26 and i hav bn on their wait list 7weeks today and i hav no appoinment yet. U were lucky u got a reshedule, one other guy was told that if he cancels his appoinment there will be no reschedule for him.
March 20, 2015 at 12:12
you said am lucky? no its punishment. i inform them as soon as i got the 2NL that i cant make the date due to some medical reasons( doctors certificate). They reply that i wait still my interview is almost due but not before the interview date. I got a reply from them early November that they rescheduled for august although I ask for Feb. anyway, all in all, Glory to God because all are working to our good.
March 19, 2015 at 07:35
hello brit my educational status is diploma on laughing department and i took civics and English course i did not took mathematics coz of our educational policy is there any problem on my interview?
March 19, 2015 at 07:38
sorry sir to mean language department
March 19, 2015 at 13:12
That depends on the country of education and the country of interview. What countries are they?
March 25, 2015 at 07:18
i am from Ethiopia
March 24, 2015 at 15:40
Hi britsimon.thank you for all that you do. my cn is AF 71xxx, is there a chance to get a 2nd letter.thanks
I’m very worry now!!!!!
March 24, 2015 at 17:26
It is a risky rang, but you still have some chance – you can only wait and see…. good luck!
March 29, 2015 at 04:09
Britsimon If the cases in the above chart means no. of principle applicant selected, then the sum of all region is why less then 125,000 selectees.
March 29, 2015 at 15:38
Each case includes the derivatives on the case. The case numbers are not consecutive – so there are gaps between the cases so you cannot add the numbers on the VB – that doesn’t mean anything. Read my “holes theory” post to understand that all better.
April 20, 2015 at 14:55
Thank you to made it’s way to worries; and the person who read me, I want better prepared the coming of the family, otherwise I am aware of cela.si this is not an obstacle to the obtemption di visa I accept.
April 24, 2015 at 18:27
Hi, married after selection but decides to travel alone and follow a family reunion for the wife.
In completing the DS 260; failed to put the name of his daughter-in since it is not a legitimate child of the main winner and very far from the couple and saw that he did not travel with the family, would be a concern? if so what should we do ?
April 24, 2015 at 21:15
I’m not 100% clear on the relationships. If we are talking about a step daughter aquired through marriage after the win, it is OK to not apply for a visa for her now, but she must be listed on the selectees DS260.
April 24, 2015 at 22:13
Yes it is a beautiful girl after the selection, the made not to mentione the ds 260 will be there a problem? I travel alone without my wife and follow a reunion. thank you
April 24, 2015 at 22:59
I think this reunion idea is almost always a bad idea. Obtaining a visa through DV is easy, and cheap. Getting the Green Card later is more difficult and time consuming. So – you can do what you suggest – but it isn’t a great idea.
May 2, 2015 at 10:44
hi Britsimon Britsimonsays ,At first, Thank you very much for all that you do to help us
Actually i have 2 questions
-My CN is AF6990 so please tell me, is there a chance ?and if yes when.