CEAC data update March 12


This extract was taken yesterday as a partial month update to see how the progress is going. As you can see in 10 days they have added almost 2000 visas. That is a good pace – so they are up to the pace I have explained they need to be hitting (just over 5000 visas per month). We should see around 18000 by the end of March – and that will leave 6 months of processing left for the remaining 32000 visas. So – they are where they want to be.


We need to be aware that a few embassies are not updating correctly – actual issued number is slightly higher than this and of course AoS cases are not shown in this data (which will take around 2000 visas) so – in this data we will perhaps see 50,000 by the end of the year, but the actual issued could be 52500 or so (which is what we use to calculate quotas.

Remember also that the majority of AP cases get issued, given enough time – so most of the 2903 number for AP will also be added in later (and will help achieve the 5000 per month pace).


If you look at the data file (which is linked below), you will also see a startling number of cases still showing “at NVC”. These cases are either late submissions of the DS260 or people who will never respond to their selection (non responses). The non responses happen every year – and is the biggest unknown factor in our estimates. The higher the non responses, the higher the final cutoff. I’ll post some more analysis in a week or two once the 2NLs are sent out.



Here is the data

And before you ask me to give you data on “your” embassy – it is very easy to do that yourself. So – here is how to use google sheets to analyze the data.




CEAC data update March 12