CEAC data update March 18
Another update to show the progress after another week. As we can see the regions are moving pretty much exactly to the 5000 pace I have mentioned before. I have put the progress column to show visas issued since the beginning of March. I will try to capture the 2NLs “in Transit” again as that is the best indication we have of the way KCC are managing the VB progression. I will again produce predictions just after the 2NLs are sent which I expect in the next few days.
Here is the data
And before you ask me to give you data on “your” embassy – it is very easy to do that yourself. So – here is how to use google sheets to analyze the data.
March 19, 2015 at 20:11
I am so sorry if I ask a silly question, but I am very interested in understanding the data you provide.
How can I interpret the Summary? What does each column means?
March 19, 2015 at 20:46
OK – cases.
Each principal selectee has a case number, but their family members are included on that case. So – for the 125000 selectees (including family) there are 76646 cases.
There are gaps between case numbers – these are duplicate entries that were disqualified immediately. You can learn more here https://britsimonsays.com/the-lottery-draw-process-holes-theory-and-so-on/
March 19, 2015 at 20:16
1-Total cases of DV 2015 for each Region?
(actual advance for SA is 1025 and total cases is 1841? )
Sorry, is there anywhere explaining how to interpret that data?
March 19, 2015 at 20:20
Good or bad for next vb?
March 19, 2015 at 20:47
Well, to most people the VB progress might appear slow – but the data is showing KCC are doing “enough” to hit their targets…
March 19, 2015 at 20:59
What about Asian sir, can reach 6000 in the next VB or not ?!!!
March 19, 2015 at 21:02
Probably not – but I will publish predictions next week.
March 19, 2015 at 21:34
When is next portion of 2NLs going to be sent out?
March 19, 2015 at 22:29
Over the next few days.
March 19, 2015 at 22:09
how many visa are there for asia
as i see 2739 are issued .
how many left ?
March 19, 2015 at 22:31
The quota is about 8500 – although some of those are adjustment cases which will not show in the CEAC data. So – there are around 5300 left.
March 20, 2015 at 05:18
Are the quota figures still accurate for all the regions in this post? https://britsimonsays.com/the-regional-quota-mystery-solved/
Asia, there, is about 8,000. Does this include AOS cases too? What do you mean by “adjustment cases”?
March 20, 2015 at 05:37
Yes pretty accurate – I think there was a small increase.
adjustment cases are aos – and the quotas include aos.
March 19, 2015 at 22:38
is there a chance for AS to reach to 11000 in the last VB …thanks
March 19, 2015 at 22:53
March 19, 2015 at 22:56
how about iranian cases on AP as last Ceac update 18 march show . Is it still as bad as last year for more hope to those ” us ” who have a case number higher than ” 10.000 rest of Asia ” . or it is getting better . to losing hope to be current , mine is 103** ” syria ” is it risky ?
March 20, 2015 at 00:13
Iranian AP is moving as slowly as last year – which means Syria 103XX is looking good.
March 19, 2015 at 23:40
is there a chance for Egypt to reach to 29000 in the last VB …thanks
March 20, 2015 at 00:13
There is a small chance….
March 20, 2015 at 03:38
hi , is it possible to get an interview cn AS85xx ,
March 20, 2015 at 05:37
If you are not from Nepal – then yes.
March 20, 2015 at 05:48
Thank you for this report.
It would be much better if you can extract the report as of today.
there are most of cases in AS which was “In Transit” got updated yesterday.
I don’t know about other regions
March 20, 2015 at 18:55
It’s not really a problem – I am tracking the changes in a database anyway, so I will know those that get updated after the 2NLs.
March 20, 2015 at 06:16
Is it possible to give a breakdown per country for the refused visa for the African region. I will be glad
March 20, 2015 at 18:58
That is very simple to do as a pivot with the data I have already provided. If I get the chance I will do it – but you can also do that yourself.
March 20, 2015 at 07:38
Hi! sorry i dont understand the numbers. You have explained it. I know, its me.
But while i’m trying to understand them, i think.. ok, if i add issued + refused + AP + transfer + READY, i’ll know how many cases have been treated and are ready for the interview. is that how it works? because if i do the math, the number that i get for all region is always the same that “family members” (in this ceac data update, at least)
Thank you for your work!
i’m a high number (eu399xx) and really hope to get to the interview… but… since last bulletin i dont know what is going to happen 🙁
(sorry for my english)
March 20, 2015 at 19:01
The family members is the total of family members on each case – so yes – they will then be in one of the other status types (which is why it adds the way you say. The cases that are In transit or at NVC don’t have family numbers yet of course.
EU399XX is a risky number – all you can do is wait and see what happens.
March 20, 2015 at 20:34
Ah, ok! i thought that family members were “derivates”. Thank you.
I’ll wait.. qué remedio!! dont have other choice :-s
March 20, 2015 at 21:03
Understood. The principal selectee is counted in family – so husband, wife and 2 kids would show 4.
March 20, 2015 at 08:14
Hi sir, how many visa are issued from Nepal up to now and how many are ready to get visa. Any chances of CN around 7860 from Nepal….
March 20, 2015 at 19:03
You can filter the data yourself as I describe in the update.
AS7860 stands a good chance.
March 20, 2015 at 11:29
Bonjour pensez vous qu on arrivera a 40xxx pour l’Afrique a la fin du processus ?
March 20, 2015 at 19:04
Please ask questions in English.
March 20, 2015 at 11:38
my cn AS 76** from nepal is there any chance of getting 2nd letter or not, i am losing hope now.
March 20, 2015 at 19:05
Yes that number stands a very good chance!
March 20, 2015 at 14:14
When a couple are both of them selected, is there also a “hole”?
March 20, 2015 at 19:07
No. That would just be two cases – and they could process both visas on either case number….
March 20, 2015 at 17:03
March 20, 2015 at 20:46
Hello my case number is 68000 morocco africa but i m really afraid that the max case numb will be less than that ? What dl you think about the max case number gor this years 2015
March 20, 2015 at 21:01
That number is in a risky range – all you can do it wait and see…
March 21, 2015 at 02:13
Do you think after this that with number EU 428xx is better not to think anymore about interview?
March 21, 2015 at 15:05
Well whether I say yes or no, you are still going to think about it and watch the visa bulletins. So – at least you know that your number only has a small chance, but because of the DS260 delays I cannot say you have NO chance.
March 21, 2015 at 16:24
Yes, you’re right 🙂 Thanks for reply!
March 21, 2015 at 12:53
And for us know , is in a risky to .
March 22, 2015 at 09:03
@britsimon we are waiting for your next AF predictions,hope it goes higher..i want to ask if this data for africa shows a possible increase in the number next month? Hope it reaches even 40000
March 22, 2015 at 15:47
I will release predictions after I see the 2NLs. I want to be able to factor in how many interviews will be from the lower case numbers (i.e. cases already current) – we also need to see what DS260 submission point they reached (October submissions, or perhaps some November submissions). Finally it will give me an update to the response rate (which for AF looks very low because of the DS260 late submissions). All those things will factor in to my estimate.
March 22, 2015 at 17:18
That’s not good,anyways I hope the next visa bulletin hits an increase,at least 40000 so people in AF with high number should have hope,
March 22, 2015 at 14:55
what about AF59+++ Mr Britismon ???
March 22, 2015 at 15:40
Good number – safe. Most likely September interview.
March 22, 2015 at 20:01
What a about AF63000
March 22, 2015 at 20:40
Pretty good. Should be safe.
March 22, 2015 at 23:04
Dear sir can you explain what does it mean
Your case at nvc
Your case at kcc
March 23, 2015 at 00:49
It is the default status for all DV cases. It is seen before the case is scheduled for interview….
March 23, 2015 at 01:27
dear sir for your kind information almost all Sudan selects make them interview in Egypt so if if you expect that might be a cutoff from Egypt at 27500 that mean that there are 1500 select from Egypt in every 10000 select in Africa but when i check your extract data at Google sheet i found that there are only about 120 to 140 select in every 1000 case and we must forget that the 120 or 140 select are Egypt and Sudan if i am not true simply till me the right
March 23, 2015 at 02:14
The cutoff for Egyptians does not affect Sudanese interviewing at Cairo embassy. As for the density of cases this far – there are obviously less than 1000 cases per thousand and only about 37% have thus far had their DS260 processed.
March 23, 2015 at 02:20
what about AF60XXX please
March 23, 2015 at 02:25
Have you read the other questions on this page from people with similar numbers???
March 23, 2015 at 11:02
Dear Mr. Simon, i have submitted my DS260 form on 19 of May and my case Number is AS 73** .would you please tell me when will be my Interview date ? is there any hope? thank you
March 23, 2015 at 13:56
March 23, 2015 at 14:34
No predictions yet sir?
March 23, 2015 at 15:02
Nope. After the 2nls
March 23, 2015 at 20:34
for egypt af265xx when you expect current ? can i use google sheets to get results for egypt ? how ?
March 23, 2015 at 20:44
Probably August. Google sheets will allow you to filter for Cairo embassy – which is explained on the same page as the link for the data itself.
March 23, 2015 at 22:49
What do you think, is it possible that they cut earlier Ukraine in next visa bulletin for EU, like Egypt in AF?
March 24, 2015 at 07:31
do you think today the 2nd NL will be sent and, so, you can prepare your predictions too?
March 24, 2015 at 15:03
Yes I think today!
March 24, 2015 at 12:53
i have a good question for u my friend
i see thet KCC is too late and they still have to give more than 34 000 visa in 4 VB
so the rest is not enough for them
then i am sure the last two VB or may be 3 or may be one will be current
so if it will be current is that mean the people who sent the form in early time will have first the interview
however they have a big case number or not
March 24, 2015 at 14:04
@hikhok please can you and @britsimon explain that further please,I don’t understand what you mean.thank you
March 24, 2015 at 15:05
They are not that far behind the normal pace – and the regions won’t be current.