Yes finally, the DV2015 CEAC data published to the CEAC system.
I have been waiting for this data to be published for a couple of months. I have been checking every day for all that time. It is finally here – and there is BIG NEWS about the data.
Last year (for DV2014) I was able to extract the CEAC data for using a program developed by Rakfikbo76. Awesome guy, and he kindly passed his program to me to continue the extractions. The program captures the CEAC data on in the system – and last year that was only loaded for cases that were scheduled, as the visa bulletin advanced the numbers.
However, this year they have made a significant change. They seem to have loaded all the cases in the system – right up to the highest case numbers. We have established that cases are loaded regardless of whether they returned their DS260 (this is confirmed by feedback from people and also by the number of cases in the files (76.6k which will cover almost all the cases once the derivatives are added in). It is possible we are missing a few cases from the high case numbers – but not very many – this really is pretty much all the cases.
So why is that a big deal?
Well, we will now be able to see almost all of the cases. We will know far more about case number density with regions, and detail by embassy once cases are scheduled. We will know the true max case numbers which will allow us to predict with better accuracy the visa bulletin progress and the final case numbers. We will be able to figure out more accurate information on how many people return their cases. We will be able to get more detail on cases being scheduled as numbers progress. The list is endless. I am feeling like a kid with a new toy.
The global data file
So – here is the global data, along with a summary tab, consulate code listing and density graphs for the three big regions.
The density graphs show very clearly the point I have been making in the holes theory explanation and also the impact I predicted for AF region because of the Nigeria exclusion. It is very clear to me that AF final cutoff will fall well short of the 81100 in DV2014.
Your own data – using the CEAC system
You can check your own number at that link, just omit the leading zeros. So – if your case number is 2015AF00029123 – you would enter that as 2015AF29123.
If your case is scheduled/adjudicated you will see some details about your case and derivatives.
There are two new statuses this year – at NVC and in transit, I am not 100% sure about the exact meaning of these status codes yet, but my current best guess is this:-
- If you see “at NVC” that probably means the case is registered with KCC (i.e. they got your DS260) and your forms are not processed yet or your forms are processed but your number is not current. After some feedback it seems that Ajustment of Status cases might also be in this data – and will probably show at NVC for the whole year. Update: After looking at the AF complete file, I can see it shows almost 40000 individual cases. Given the derivative ration I think it is highly likely that the file includes ALL cases (that are not original holes) and therefore “at NVC” includes cases where the selectee has not even sent in their DS260 (and may not ever do so).
- If you see “in Transit” that is probably meaning your case was recently scheduled for interview and sent to the embassy but so far the embassy have not entered your details back into the CEAC system.
I would appreciate some feedback from people to confirm these guesses. For example, if someone has not yet submitted their DS260 for the first time, do they see their number in the CEAC system yet?