Yes finally, the DV2015 CEAC data published to the CEAC system.
I have been waiting for this data to be published for a couple of months. I have been checking every day for all that time. It is finally here – and there is BIG NEWS about the data.
Last year (for DV2014) I was able to extract the CEAC data for using a program developed by Rakfikbo76. Awesome guy, and he kindly passed his program to me to continue the extractions. The program captures the CEAC data on in the system – and last year that was only loaded for cases that were scheduled, as the visa bulletin advanced the numbers.
However, this year they have made a significant change. They seem to have loaded all the cases in the system – right up to the highest case numbers. We have established that cases are loaded regardless of whether they returned their DS260 (this is confirmed by feedback from people and also by the number of cases in the files (76.6k which will cover almost all the cases once the derivatives are added in). It is possible we are missing a few cases from the high case numbers – but not very many – this really is pretty much all the cases.
So why is that a big deal?
Well, we will now be able to see almost all of the cases. We will know far more about case number density with regions, and detail by embassy once cases are scheduled. We will know the true max case numbers which will allow us to predict with better accuracy the visa bulletin progress and the final case numbers. We will be able to figure out more accurate information on how many people return their cases. We will be able to get more detail on cases being scheduled as numbers progress. The list is endless. I am feeling like a kid with a new toy.
The global data file
So – here is the global data, along with a summary tab, consulate code listing and density graphs for the three big regions.
The density graphs show very clearly the point I have been making in the holes theory explanation and also the impact I predicted for AF region because of the Nigeria exclusion. It is very clear to me that AF final cutoff will fall well short of the 81100 in DV2014.
Your own data – using the CEAC system
You can check your own number at that link, just omit the leading zeros. So – if your case number is 2015AF00029123 – you would enter that as 2015AF29123.
If your case is scheduled/adjudicated you will see some details about your case and derivatives.
There are two new statuses this year – at NVC and in transit, I am not 100% sure about the exact meaning of these status codes yet, but my current best guess is this:-
- If you see “at NVC” that probably means the case is registered with KCC (i.e. they got your DS260) and your forms are not processed yet or your forms are processed but your number is not current. After some feedback it seems that Ajustment of Status cases might also be in this data – and will probably show at NVC for the whole year. Update: After looking at the AF complete file, I can see it shows almost 40000 individual cases. Given the derivative ration I think it is highly likely that the file includes ALL cases (that are not original holes) and therefore “at NVC” includes cases where the selectee has not even sent in their DS260 (and may not ever do so).
- If you see “in Transit” that is probably meaning your case was recently scheduled for interview and sent to the embassy but so far the embassy have not entered your details back into the CEAC system.
I would appreciate some feedback from people to confirm these guesses. For example, if someone has not yet submitted their DS260 for the first time, do they see their number in the CEAC system yet?
February 7, 2015 at 02:01
My CN is 568XX, I submitted my DS-260 form on 28/05/2014 and make correcting on 28/01/2015. But please, I want to know if can it affect planning (schedule) of my interview? if so which one?
February 7, 2015 at 06:10
No it won’t affect your interview date, which will be July or August.
February 7, 2015 at 13:18
good job BritSimon , thank youuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu
February 7, 2015 at 17:09
My CN is 2015AS****53**, and i submitted my DS-260 form on 14 JUN 2014, I couldn’t find my CN being processed or not. what CN no is processed till now and how long it will take to come my 2nd letter.
February 7, 2015 at 17:14
They are currently current up to AS4300 – so your number is not current. It may go current in the next VB, or perhaps the one after that – so that would be for April or May interviews. Your 2NL comes around 6 – 8 weeks before the interview.
February 10, 2015 at 22:58
How significant of the filing date of DS260 ? i know most people file it really early but i just got mine done in Dec 2014 and my number is 2015ASXXXX81XX.
if my number current in Aug 2015, do i stand the same chance with the people (2015ASXXXX81XX. ish) that file DS260 in May/June 2014 ?
after all KCC should have sufficient time ( from Dec 2014 to Aug 2015) to process my DS260…..
February 10, 2015 at 23:20
IN your case it won’t be significant at all. Your DS260 is either processed, or it is not. If it is not processed you cannot get an interview even if you are current. If it is processed you cannot get an interview unless you are current. If you have an interview that means you are current and your form is processed – so then you are in the same boat as everyone else scheduled during the same batch.
February 14, 2015 at 21:23
Brit, My visa priority date will be current in next 3=4 months When will NVC start pre-processing. I am getting this messPlease follow the instructions you received from the National Visa Center (NVC) for the next step in the processing of your visa petition but have received nothing from NVC
February 15, 2015 at 00:54
Forget the message about NVC – it is meaningless. I assume you have submitted your DS260 already – that is the most important thing….
March 3, 2015 at 14:34
Hi Britisimon, this is my CN 71xxx, do you think that I can get an interview
March 3, 2015 at 15:11
You have a good chance.
March 3, 2015 at 20:52
Please explain to me when you say I have a good chance, because I’m wery worry about that DV2015,
March 3, 2015 at 22:17
Your number is not safe, but is not terrible either. No one knows exactly where the final cutoff will fall – so all I can say now is that you have a good chance, though not 100% safe.
March 5, 2015 at 21:24
Thank you very much, the least thing I can do is to pray God in order to have chance to get this VISA.
March 7, 2015 at 18:39
you seem to have a lot of knowledge
I checked the history of the Dv lottery, my number is AS12185, it seems that usually the CNs for Asia end up at right around that point.
What do you think?
looking forward to your answer.
March 7, 2015 at 22:23
Each year is different. If you go back a few years you will see some huge case numbers (because of Bangladesh), but that does not mean those numbers are safe. So – your number stands a chance, but is not 100% safe…
March 7, 2015 at 23:48
Thanks for your answer Simon
I know that there’s no way of really knowing for sure. I can just sort of go by the patterns that I see in the past, it seems like it usually goes current at around Aug, Sept……dont know why exactly
I was just wondering if you have any information that I don’t have about the Asia Numbers this year because you’re so knowledgeable.
I am applying from Hong Kong, where do you think the cut off would eventually end up?
thanks again .
April 3, 2015 at 05:15
Britsimons, i am from Ethiopia having CN26xxx. When will be my interview schedule?
April 3, 2015 at 06:11
Probably in June – 2NL in about 3 weeks from now.
April 18, 2015 at 00:50
I am so so thankful for your efforts. May God bless you.
My CN is 2015AF54xxx. I am from morocco, but currently student in USA (F1 visa). I submitted my DS260 and got an email from them on 8/15/2014. I am just waiting for the US visa bulletin number to be greater of mine. Till June 2015 it is 3400. Could you please let me know if I have any chance to get the green card or what should I do at this point??
April 18, 2015 at 01:07
Your case number WILL go current – but you will have to move on the aos process. Read this….
April 18, 2015 at 01:38
First thank you for your quick answer.
At this point, should I wait until my number become current to start the process and submit my forms?
Do you think if, my number becomes current in August, I will still have time to submit my forms and get interview.
April 18, 2015 at 01:44
You will have to take advantage of early submission (only when you see your number in the VB). Even if it is current in September you have time, but you need to do it right. Make sure you check out the thread below and do what Mom suggests.
April 18, 2015 at 02:09
Thank you so much
Do you think is it safer to hire a lawyer ?
April 18, 2015 at 05:25
No – that is less safe because they don’t know the DV process.
April 18, 2015 at 12:28
Could you please let me know what is the safest way to process or who can help me with it?
April 18, 2015 at 16:41
The link I gave you earlier is to a forum that I moderate. The other moderator is an expert in DV based aos – her name is Sm1smom. Read the first post in that thread, read the spredsheet linked from that thread and then you will have a good idea of what to do. Lawyers will only screw it up. Seriously. You can do it yourself – IF YOU CLICK THAT LINK.
April 18, 2015 at 16:52
Thank you BritSimon
I greatly appreciate your help
May God bless you
April 21, 2015 at 12:37
Case Number: 2015AF718XX and I submitted my
(DS-260) on the 19 MAY 2014 08:10:06 EST same day it was Launched
and they confirmed they received it and sent me a confirmation number same days i believe
please email me when possibly can i be booked for interview please or again please tell me if all my sacrifices are Useless
worst mistake i have ever made my whole life out of No info , i wish i had known this site 6 month before now left my 2 years of Journalism and mass communication studies for this ,my mates are graduating this December ,please tell me the truth about my case number is it to High to get a Visa ,i am from cameroon
April 21, 2015 at 14:48
I cannot be certain whether you will get an interview or not, but you are not in a safe range – your number has risk. For you, the day you submitted your DS260 makes no difference, cases are processed by case number order. Good luck.
April 28, 2015 at 09:27
Hi Baur! Just wondering how everything went for you. Did you contact your embassy or KCC? And what was their answer? Did you both get the visa? 🙂 Thanks in advance!
May 16, 2015 at 01:31
Should I hope on getting an interview my case number is 457++ and July v b 36500 and it remain two month’s to end the year
May 16, 2015 at 03:18
Yes you should hang in there and see what happens
May 19, 2015 at 16:03
A late question. Are the 50,000 visas for the selected enterants or for them and their family member? To clarify my questiom if the first person interviewed has 5 family members and he was approved to get a visa. Will he get five visas of the 50,000 dv visas or he and all his family members will count as one visa out of the 50,000? I will appreciate your response.
May 30, 2015 at 17:11
mine too same
what does it mean??? please clarify..
Please follow the instructions you received from the National Visa Center (NVC) for the next step in the processing of your visa petition. If you have misplaced the instructions sent to you by the NVC or did not receive them, please contact us at http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/info/info_3177.html for additional information.
NVC Contact Information
May 30, 2015 at 17:21
It doesn’t mean you need to do anything. It is just the standard message….
June 23, 2015 at 09:34
Hi my case af415xx
It was at nvc when i checked today it shows in transit 😀 so am i going to reveive 2nl?
June 23, 2015 at 14:06
Within a few days.
June 27, 2015 at 03:26
Accept my greetings sir, my CN is 79xxx. To what month the interview to you sir?
June 27, 2015 at 15:12
I assume that is 2015 and AF region. If correct, sadly that number will not go current – you will not get an interview. I’m sorry.
June 27, 2015 at 15:23
I had an interview date for 06/26/15 for DV-2015 Visa. I got denied for the Visa under Section 212 (a) (5) under the reason of failing to include all the eligible family members. I had filled the Edv form with martial status as single because my spouse left me and never came back. I don’t even know if he is alive or not. Also, I did not see any place in form for single mother. Therefore, I clicked on the single space. I received my 1st letter of confirmation then I tried to consult the embassy about the situation but I was not allowed to. Then I did the process for second letter as single again.
Now, when the time for the interview arrived they failed me on the above cause.
Is there any possibility that the interview can be re-scheduled.
June 27, 2015 at 15:43
Firstly there is no appeal process. Secondly your denial was certain. The rule to include eligible family members and state your marital status accurately are critical mistakes. If there was an appeal process, you would be refused every time. I’m sorry – you cannot re-enter the DV lottery until you clear that up. You would have to file for divorce, apply as divorced, and present marriage and divorce papers at interview.
June 28, 2015 at 08:18
Many thanks to you Mr. Simon for such an innovation, i tried my case number as you suggested and I realize my case is pending at NVC.
>>> I have a concern, will KCC interview of the DV selectees before the process come to a close on September 30, 2015?
June 28, 2015 at 15:01
No KCC will not interview all selectees before September 30. Thousands of people will never be called for interview. It depends mainly on your case number (year/region/number).
June 29, 2015 at 17:16
Thanks for your help Mr. Simon… This is my case number 2015AF59264. what do u think i stand the chance of been call.
June 29, 2015 at 18:52
I don’t know for sure – wait and see… 2 weeks.
July 2, 2015 at 17:02
What about my number chances euxxx40900? Still possible in September? EB
July 2, 2015 at 19:16
I really don’t know – you will have to wait and see – next week you will know…
July 2, 2015 at 19:38
Thank you, so next VB will be posted in a week?Regards,
July 18, 2015 at 22:11
thank you very much, my worry is my case number i 2015AF45835 and submitted in my DS260 in June 2014 yet still i am at NVC. what is going on?
July 19, 2015 at 14:01
That is normal. Your Status Will Change Once You Get THE 2nl IN About 1 Week.
July 19, 2015 at 19:46
my case number was current in may 2015, i also submitted my ds260 form in may 2015, pls when is my second letter coming, because my case number is 2015AF3XXXX
July 21, 2015 at 04:08
Within a few days
July 21, 2015 at 14:21
I have downloaded DS-260 Exempla pdf from state .gov and It says… ‘’PREVIOUS WORK/EDUCATION/TRAINING INFORMATION PAGE
DISPLAYED FOR ALL APPLICANTS WHO MEET ONE OF THE FOLLOWING CRITERIA: •THE APPLICANT IS MALE AND AGE IS BETWEEN 14 AND 60 •THE APPLICANT IS OVER THE AGE OF 14 AND IS FROM BURMA, CHINA, CUBA, INDIA, IRAN, NORTH KOREA, PAKISTAN, SAUDI ARABIA, SUDAN, SYRIA, OR STATELESS •THE APPLICANT IS RETIRED, NOT EMPLOYED, OR IS A HOMEMAKER •THE APPLICANT IS A PRINCIPAL APPLICANT AND IS APPLYING FOR ANY OF THE FOLLOWING VISA CLASSES: E11, E12, E13, E21, E31, E32, EW3, SD1, SR1, SE1, C51, T51, SI1, SQ1, SF1, SG1, SH1, SJ1, SK1, SN1, R51, AND I51, DV-1 ‟
What does it mean ??? i
am not neither of above countries’
..iam realy confused
July 21, 2015 at 14:43
Jeez – just ignore that and read my guide.
July 21, 2015 at 14:34
also IN PREVIOUS WORK/EDUCATION/TRAINING INFORMATION PAGE it is possible to include seminar session that you take like 3 day,2 day seminar session s
July 21, 2015 at 14:43
Don’t include a 2 or 3 day course, unless it is highly significant.
July 21, 2015 at 15:24
thanks for your support
July 22, 2015 at 18:11
Hi Simon, is the July 10th VB the last VB for DV 2015?
July 23, 2015 at 02:02
August 18, 2015 at 21:32
Britsimon I am a 2016 dv winner with case no.2016AF00000116 and have not yet submitted my ds260 forms.
Will like to know whether my case no. Is good?
Again will like to know whether is not too late to submit my ds260?
Also will like to know if I submit my ds260 any moment from now when am likely to be interviwed?
August 18, 2015 at 22:39
Your case number is very low, but because you have delayed sending ion your forms, you will now wait until the DS260 is processed before you can be scheduled.
You are not too late.
It will probably take 2 to 3 months to process your DS260 – so as a rough guess you might be interviewed early 2016.
August 26, 2015 at 02:42
Hi Simon im trying to check my visa status on CEAC but I’m having a invalide visa case number.
Knowing that my case number is 2016AF and submitted the ds260 about 2 weeks ago, is it still to early to check it out ??
Thanks for your help
August 26, 2015 at 04:49
No Dv2016 data is yin the system yet. Last year, the data was not loaded until the end of December….
September 11, 2015 at 12:18
hi ma case is different,we are in the last months and what happens to those who are in APs?
September 11, 2015 at 14:38
If AP does not clear by September 30th, those cases will not get approved.
September 27, 2015 at 15:35
Hi Simon, so happy for the great work you are doing to help others. please my case number is 2016AF000006XX. submmited my ds260 this september. Pls when can i have the second mail from them and when can my interview be schedule? it may case number safe? thanks
September 27, 2015 at 15:48
You case is already current – so it is obviously safe.
Your late submission of the DS260 will mean a February or March interview.
September 28, 2015 at 15:09
thanks simon for your kindly respond.
October 25, 2015 at 10:50
hi Simon sir my case number for dv 2016 program is 2016AS55**.Can it possible to safe my case number though it is not current …my ds-260 online form submitted at the end of June …when can I got 2nl n interview date sir…could you tell me my interview. Date n 2nl date
October 25, 2015 at 14:56
January 14, 2016 at 20:26
Hi I would like to ask my case was complete on3nov2015 but still didn’t get my interveiw letter 🙁 . My priority date12jan2015 which is current too plz tell me when I cn gt it
January 14, 2016 at 20:51
You mention a priority date. This is not a DV case then?
I do not advise on non DV cases.
January 23, 2016 at 14:43
abdulfatah brother, add contact, my email [email protected]
i want to you relationship with me
February 2, 2017 at 19:32
Great work here. I contacted you before asking about what will happen in Ankara/Turkey embassy now that Iranian interviews are cancelled for 3 months.
We are digging deep with my wife, being engineers and consultants 🙂 and we see that in CEAC 2015 data there is not much info after case number 20497.
Has the original CEAC data been changed? What is the reason for the empty cells?
Also, we filter for ANK on EU and AS. This is because we know Turkish, Iranian and Azeri people get their interviews in Ankara. We see approximately 190 EU cases interviewed in Ankara, and 450 AS cases interviewed in Ankara. Leaving aside Iranians, since there is a special quota for Iran as far as we understand from the VBs, but 190 cases from Turkey seems very low. So again, was the data changed?
We are trying to extrapolate if we are in danger of getting an interview date since we submitted our DS on 25 Nov 2016, and reopened/resubmitted for passport update due to my wife’s surname change in Jan 4.
This is why we are panicking and digging deep. Great work overall, it is like a great project to work on!
February 2, 2017 at 19:56
I honestly cannot understand why you are worrying. EU is at 19300 for March interviews. You only need 1200 increase and there are 6 more months left after the March interviews. Just relax!!!!