I’m really busy at work so I have not had very much more time to look at the CEAC data today. However, I do have some thoughts to share.
First of all – as some are beginning to realize – it is VERY hard to predict final cutoffs this far away. Many things can happen between now and the end of the year. So – let’s take a look at the next VB and once we see that progress we can see how many interviews are being scheduled at the various embassies.
I also want to remind everyone that I cannot be 100% accurate, because I am not in charge of the DV program. In DV2015 for instance there were case numbers up to 89,000 – that year was massively over selected. I spent months trying to explain why I was sure we would see a lot of people miss out – and many just would not see the logic. Leading up to the final VBs I was convinced that AF region could hit 55,000, but I was concerned about numbers higher than that. In the final VB however, KCC inexplicably stopped AF region at 50,000. Months later I came to understand that my calculations were mathematically correct. There were enough visas for AF to hit the number I felt was safe, but the decision was taken to underfill AF that year, and globally also – and they missed the quota in AF. So – it just goes to show – we need to be careful about predictions.
Now – in talking about DV2015, that brings me to my point. Both DV2017 and DV2016 were underselected years. In DV2016 they only issued 46.7k visas because they underselected and then in DV2017 they underselected and then announced more winners in a second draw. Even with the second draw they still had far fewer selectees in than we have in DV2018, so we seem to be overselected. For that reason I prefer to compare this year to DV2015.
There are several ways to try and estimate final cutoffs – but there are many factors we have to take into account. Here are those factors listed.
- Quota for the region (set by a formula defined in last)
- Selectees numbers
- Starting derivative rate
- Response rate (some people don’t process their win)
- No show rate (some people don’t show up for the interview)
- Derivative growth rate (newborns and marriages increase the selectee numbers)
- Success rate (how many people get refused, or go on AP and cannot be approved in time)
- Processing limits such as the 7% rule
- Rule changes or political and economic influences – real and not real examples for DV2018 being:
- Travel Ban
- Trump is a moron so it puts people off living in the USA
- The economy crashes
I’m sure some people are more confused at what all that means – but let me give a MADE UP illustration. Let me say again – this is JUST AN ILLUSTRATION.
Assume I have case number AF45000. Because of the CEAC data and holes explanation in my last post you now know that there are NOT 44999 cases in front of you. Holes mean there are less cases than that – in fact in DV2018 there are 29336 cases in front of AF45000. So – already you are 15000 places in front of where you thought you were.
However, every case signifies the selectee AND any derivatives they have. They might have a spouse and 7 children, or they might be single. Until they are scheduled, we don’t know. So – we take the number of selectees in the published selectee numbers (49392) and divide by the number of actual cases in the CEAC data (32541). That means we have an average of 1.52 people for every case in Africa as a starting derivative number. So – by taking our example of 29336 cases in front of me at AF45000 and multiplying by the derivative rate (1.52) I can assume there are 44590 people in front of me. That is the length of the queue.
Now – because the formula for the quota is published, we know that the DV2018 quota for AF is about 21600 (based on 50,000 global quota).
OK – those were real numbers – now we move to guesswork. Again – ILLUSTRATION PURPOSES ONLY!
However, every time one of the selectees gets married, or has a baby, The queue in front of me get’s longer. That is the derivative growth rate. It varies by country/region – but for AF I have seen growth rates of over 20% – meaning the starting derivative rate becomes a rate of about 1.85 instead of 1.52. So now the queue is over 54,000 people!
Now – we need to know how many of those cases will be “non responses” or “no shows”. As desperate as I may be for my interview at case AF45000, there is some percentage of cases where people either never file their DS260 to say they want to process their case OR they do submit the DS260 but just never show up for the interview. In previous years that non response and now show rate has meant as many as half the queue don’t want their chance. So – maybe there are only 27000 people actually in the queue.
Not all of those 27,000 will be able to pass their interviews. Some will be unable to clear AP procedures before the end of the year, some will not meet the requirement, some will have lied on their eDV of “forgotten” they were married when they entered. The success rate is the rate of how many interviews actually get issued. It varies GREATLY by country – for instance in Ghana refusals are more likely than approvals. In Egypt you have to work very hard to get refused. So – then it becomes a matter of what countries those 27000 people are from. If they were all from Ghana I would be certain to get a chance, but if they are all from Egypt I don’t have a chance at all of getting one of the 21600 places.
See how complex that is? It is VERY HARD to predict the final numbers accurately. VERY HARD.
Now – to take all those into account takes time and extensive data from previous years. To an extent, some of it is guesswork. So – even if we really understand all the factors we STILL can’t be exactly accurate in predictions.
So – let me explain one quick way of doing the math.
Instead of trying to calculate all these numbers together I could look at how many cases were made current in a previous year to get within the quota. So – let’s do that, and give some other useful data.
For this method I will use DV2015. That was the first year the DS260 was used, it was over selected (like this year), and it is relatively recent. DV2016 and DV2017 are not good models because they were under selected. In underselected years some “odd” stuff happens. For instance, in DV2017 SA region received 1830 visas. That is over 400 visa MORE than the region’s quota for that year. That means SA took unused visas from other regions which will ONLY happen in an underselected year (like DV2016 and DV2017). DV2018 is NOT an underselected year.
OK – having said that – here are some numbers based on CEAC data from DV2015 and DV2018.
To explain, I list the quota from DV2018, published selectees per region and the number of cases for the region from the CEAC data. Using that, I have calculated the DV2018 starting derivative rate.
For DV2015 I give the TOTAL cases, and the final cutoff number. Then the cases that were in each region UNDER the cutoff and the number of visas issued. The final column (raw cases per visa issued) is a quick (approximate) method to apply the non response rate no show rate, derivative rate, response rate success rate and so on. By using ratio multiplied by the quota, we get to a ROUGH prediction of how many cases will go current in each region – ****ASSUMING**** all other things are equal. That is a BIG assumption – and an incorrect one for various reasons, but applying that method gives us the following numbers.
AF – 46600
EU – 33000
AS – 9600
OC – 1300
Now – I consider these LOW NUMBERS. These are what I would call safe – to a lesser or greater extent per region. In reality there are a number of factors that this method does not take into account.
AF region seems like a sensible safe number. It is broadly similar to my earlier thoughts. So – I consider that a good “lower number” range for safe numbers. That does NOT mean the number won’t be higher, but I would be surprised if it ended lower than 46600.
EU number is much lower than I would expect to be the final number. This year three countries (Russia, Albania and Turkey) experience a HUGE increase of selectees compared to previous years. That suggests to me that agents were somehow involved in registering entries. When that happens, the number of non responses increase, refusals increase and so on, because agents typically make things worse, not better – especially when their motivation is greed. Added to that the case density in EU is very low. So – from 33000 to 37000 for instance, there are only 1444 cases. So – it is not hard to imagine the number being MUCH higher than 33000. I would be SHOCKED if the number was anything like 33000 – I still expect the final number to be in the 36/37 range (a little reduced from my earlier assessment since max case numbers are actually lower than previously reported).
AS region is very affected by the travel ban. Iran, Syria and Yemen are all under the ban – accounting for nearly 40% of the total selectees in the region. Those selectees cannot be disregarded from the DV lottery. Some of them will not be subject to the ban because of dual citizenship and other reasons. Because of that, KCC can’t simply ignore those 6000 selectees. BUT I don’t know how KCC will treat the shortfall in visas being issued because of the travel ban impact. So – I would pretty much suggest we totally IGNORE the prediction for AS region. There is just no way to know what will happen. So – WAIT AND SEE is the only sensible answer.
For OC region I still believe the final cutoff will be between 1400 and 1500. The method above produced a lower number, but visas issued per 100 cases in OC region is low anyway – so the method could easily be wrong.
SA region again strikes me as low for the same reasons as OC. In addition, this year has a new country, so that has altered the game somewhat. However, the quota will be enforced this year, unlike DV2017, because there will not be spare visas coming from other regions.
I will be spending some time refining these numbers, they are best guesses at the moment, using one particular (approximate) method. NO ONE should bet the farm on these numbers. I could be wrong – just as I have been before.
Now finally let me just say, I provide this analysis not as numbers written in stone, but rather to allow analyitical people to understand what is going on. Many will be lost and confused by this whole post. I understand that, but I get frustrated when someone doesn’t even bother to TRY to understand and just wants ,e to tell them whether their number is safe. I expect people to use their own common sense – and of course feel free to calculate your own numbers using your own methods.
January 15, 2018 at 18:40
Hi Brit, thank you for your excellent work. It is very helpful to understand the process, I would like to know if my CN SA14XX is safe, what do you think? Can you please help me know if the nerves I have make any sense?
January 15, 2018 at 19:02
Have you read the article above. It already answers your question.
January 15, 2018 at 19:12
yes but the number SA -1365, is for CN or Visa
January 15, 2018 at 20:03
CN. PLEASE read the article properly.
January 15, 2018 at 19:40
Hi,Simon.Greetings just wanna know why VB for march is not yet out ,Do u have any idea it’s already 16 January here in Thai thanks
January 15, 2018 at 19:56
Well first of all – it is not based on where you are – the target is the 15th in the USA.
However, they might be late. That doesn’t mean any problem. Be patient.
January 16, 2018 at 00:13
Thanks very much sir ,GOD blessed you .
January 15, 2018 at 22:40
Hi Simon, Thank you for all hard work you doing for us.
It’s already 15th of Jan Any idea why the Bulletin hasn’t released yet?
or have it ever been published after 15th of the month like 17th or some?
Again Thank you And if you have any answer I’ll appreciate that. All love 3>
January 16, 2018 at 00:44
I imagine it will be released tomorrow.
January 16, 2018 at 10:36
My case number is as65## asia can you guess my interview will schedule or not???
January 16, 2018 at 16:49
Read the article.
July 21, 2019 at 00:45
Did you get your visa???
January 16, 2018 at 14:08
Hello Brit. Thank you for your help. I had my interview today and consul said to me everything ok, visa approved. When i check my status is ap administrativ process. What does that mean, i am very worried.
January 16, 2018 at 14:28
It’s normal. It typically shows AP couple of days, it will change shortly, keep checking.
February 4, 2018 at 08:52
Where are u from Nina?
January 16, 2018 at 14:10
Hi brit…its too late VB updates why? may it cause any problem yet?
January 16, 2018 at 16:38
January 16, 2018 at 15:50
Hope you are having a good day.
Perhaps delay in VB release is caused by recent Trump’s actions. He made some strong comments on Diversity Lottery within last 2 days.
All the best, Raf
January 16, 2018 at 16:35
January 16, 2018 at 15:50
just saw on immigrationroad.com that VB for March 2018 will be released around the 10th February. What do you think?
Thanks for the good job you doing. May God reward you abundantly.
January 16, 2018 at 16:02
lol. no suprise. It has always been like that. look at the current VB. The one that we are all waiting for is Feb. and not March. The only thing is that the feb VB contains info about the March VB. However the March VB will be published in Feb.
January 16, 2018 at 16:09
Could you please shed some light on this, the VB we are waiting for are the interviews for March right? February interviews are already scheduled and 2nl are already sent too.
January 16, 2018 at 16:13
Sure. No, we are waiting for the Feb. VB to be published. It will tell us the VB for march, and interviews will be scheduled, but the offical next Bulletin is Feb. Easy to see. Go on the Visa Bulletin website. Curren Bulletin is January, upcoming Bulletin will be feb. The only diffrence is that feb bulletin will contain info about March VB. The official March VB will be published in mid Feb
January 16, 2018 at 16:34
January 16, 2018 at 16:35
I think you looked at an old post.
January 16, 2018 at 17:45
My case is still in AP status, but it says that it is updated today on 16 January , does it mean they are working on it or it is automatically updated.
January 16, 2018 at 18:10
Updates happen for various reasons – you cannot deduce anything from the updates.
January 17, 2018 at 07:34
Really you’re a doctor for this matter.
Thanks for your big efforts& if you need any help plz. read your article.
January 17, 2018 at 10:59
1. Is the derivative rate 1.99 for EU accurate? Why is it bigger than Africa? I tried to use common sense guessing people in Africa have bigger families.
2. Is there an information what countries took place where in the line? E.g. Portugal was drawn in the beginning (fertility rate 1,31) – the derivative rate is lesser. France comes to processing at the end (1,96 per woman in average) – higher derivative rate.
Thank you for your time and patience with all those sneaky questions, I appreciate it 🙂
January 17, 2018 at 13:08
Probably i’ll become your „High, risky EU CN” club member if there are still vacants – I’m your northern neighbour. I’m happy/less happy/ unhappy – depends on situation eu cn 33xxx holder very concerned about this year. I can see that you are looking at files, doing your own analyses and i wish your VB progress came true. I have my doubts, but about this later. Your question about accuracy of derivative rate has simple answer. It’s very accurate, you get it by dividing number of selectees which we know by number of Real cases which we also know so results are clear. What we don’t know is growth of this rate which for sure changes during process. If you look at ceac files you can see that behind every cn are people. Number of those people varies in eu from 1 to even 8, so it’s not surprise that we have 1,99 or even higher. I’m not going to compare it with Africa as i haven’t Lived there. Probably in Africa there are more „singles” who want to start new life in new world, while in Europe more families want to migrate together, even 8 persons. Numbers are hard numbers and starting derivative rate is very precise and not hard to calculate.If you are looking at f.e. Xarthisius graph and files and I assume you are looking what there are few important things. First we’ve found out in january – holes- blue layer on graph, we are sure of it and that won’t change. Next important thing which has impact on VB progress is non response – yellow layer on graph – in low cn range it was around 35-40%. This will have very big impact on future VB progress. I think this rate won’t stay so high, the first question is what it would be. If the yellow field (still looking at Xarthisius graph) stays wide enough chances will be higher, if it becomes narrow, chances for better VB progress will be lower. This field and those numbers can change even in past cn ranges. Some people may wake up and process their ds260. Next point is status ready light green. We don’t know from graph if those are not updated, no shows up or backlog. This layer for sure won’t stay like it is now, question how many people are in this group and what the outcome will be? AP purple layer can end with issued or refused. Refusal rate is not very high so far and i don’t wish so to anyone (i prefer to hope for no responses and no shows up :)). So we (high cn) want to see high no response ( wide yellow field and high no shows up wide light green field). Then what’s important is how many persons are behind every of those cases. We may see that 6 cn haven’t shown up and be happy about this but one cn with 7 derivatives issued will „cancel” this. That’s why it’s hard to predict safe numbers. Even if we will see VB rising there may be sudden drop, because of backlog and late ds260 subbmission. For us this will be a stressing experience. The final outcome may vary and is dependant of many, hard to predict factors. When i was selected the first thing i did was to look at historical VB to state i’m perfectly safe. My thinking was same cn, what can change. Then i’ve found this site and every article i’ve read here allowed me to understand process better and better. Not perfectly, but good enough to reach conclusion how horribly wrong i was at the beginning and there is high chance that my dreams won’t come true. I may be wrong, my analysies may be wrong, but at least i’m trying not to take Simon’s time to ask if my number is safe. I have a lot of concerns but there is always hope and lets look how the yellow and light green layers on Xarthisius graphs will look like, lets study csv files and share our thoughts. I’ll be glad to join „ your” club – we are on the same boat 🙂 Sorry for long post, but at least i’m not writing: why i haven’t received 2nl for march or is there a chance to get interview with cn 5001 next month while cutoff is 4990. I’m sick of such questions, but people have right to ask anything. I wonder what courage those people have to leave everything behind, while not understanding very basic facts. For those us life reality may have huge impact and become trauma, as they’ll find out that nothing, completely nothing is given to anyone on a plate.
Let’s hope Nicole, Rxy, Tom and others, that VB will progress well and our turn will come. Regards.
January 17, 2018 at 13:30
I also feel hat there are comparably less refusals this year. I was thinking thought that might be because progress this year is slower… not sure. Also, Brits thesis that many albanian, turkish and russan cases will be refused due to agency involvement this year doesnt really seem to be supported by the data..
January 17, 2018 at 13:51
Some of the ready (no show ups) and non response may be the results of what BrittSimon has written about. We don’t have to see high refusal rate to state that many people who were selected didn’t continue their process. I think Uzbekistan is over (btw it’s really interesting to learn geography anew, that Uzbekistan is located in Europe ?) so we can see how many visas were issued compared to 4500 selectees. For sure highest number in eu so far. The rest may be the cause of things Britt has spoken about. Doing captcha still important.
January 17, 2018 at 13:53
what do you mean by “uzbekistan is over” ?
January 17, 2018 at 13:56
No more cases? Just my guess. Waiting for csv file with cn above 10700.
January 17, 2018 at 14:08
what makes you think that? how do we know what the highest cn is for usbekiztan?
January 17, 2018 at 15:23
We know at least one country cutoff at 10700. It is most likely one of the U2 countries.
January 17, 2018 at 14:52
Well, just my guess i may be wrong, but such drop in density around 11k is not without reason. 5 countries have high numbers. For sure this drop is not caused by Russia, Albania (as we have friend Tom with high numer), Turkey nor Ukraina. For sure those countries spread across whole range. Not sure about Ukraine, i’ve seen people here with cn 188xx which is very close to the next slighter drop in density. But never have seen people from Uzbekistan stating that they have higher cn. To be honest i’ve never seen many people from Uz here if even any. That makes me think that Uz is the country that hit it’s cn limit.
January 17, 2018 at 15:25
Yes – data supplied by Ukranian groups confirms your assumptions.
January 17, 2018 at 15:15
January 17, 2018 at 15:08
I said refusals/non responses. We can’t tell yet, based on only one of those factors.
January 17, 2018 at 15:06
Yep – lots of variables. I have models where all that is calculated based on previous years, but even then, this year could be different. It is never easy to calculate what everyone wants to hear. There will always be some guesswork, and therefore always some “wait and see”.
January 17, 2018 at 20:42
Thank you for your thourough analysis and kind words. I am still highly positive, people call me an optimist. I’ve made another analysis taking derivative rate and other things from the chart that you nicely explained into account. And the result was that there should be enough visas for everyone 🙂 However, I just hope that most of the people that entered this year’s lottery were members of clubs gathering singles, then nuns, catolic preachers, asexuals and chronical loners:)) Are we going to see how many visas were issued per case from past appointments?
As a kid I went to Jastrzebia gora for vacation as many times 🙂
January 17, 2018 at 20:52
I love your optimism Nicole!! Thank you!!
January 17, 2018 at 20:56
So based on your calculations we might have some hope ?
January 18, 2018 at 11:55
Hi Tom i am from Albania to with cn35***. Let’s start an Albanian group to se what is going on. Reply to me and i’ll give you my contacts. We might make some calculations about cn ranges, derivative rate and share some experiences. I dont want to lose hope but as we see i’m startind to be more realistic. Number are here in this blog and this year we are at some risky range. As i see we have to wait following months crossing fingers for non response rate but it is known that albanians and balkani people won’t gonna lose their chance. Instead of that they will marry leir lovers, they will start an early family just to multiply opportunities among them.
Here we are a 10 states region in the middle of europe hoping to leave our countries due to economic and politic events that made us mos weaker and more poorest than rest of europe.That is one reason why albania and turkey have such selecees following years and now.
This post worths even for russians, ukrainians to.
January 18, 2018 at 11:57
Im from Albania too, with high CN
January 18, 2018 at 12:29
Hey erdion,tom, eduart and others from albania!
There is a theory that in these 3 countries which doubled their entries in comparison to DV17, agents were massivly involved in registering entries. Maybe you can confirm- or deny that theory after youve found more winners from albania!
January 17, 2018 at 21:43
Well i wouldn’t call it full analysis – rather some reflections and guesess, for sure not such good as those done by Simon, but he said that everyone can feel free to do his own. Your optimism is really, really helpful, needed and heart-warming. And we gonna need a lot of it along with luck. About your hopes, you forgot to mension hermits, I’ve heard a lot of hermits applied for visa in DV 2018 🙂 Good to see someone more optimistic than me in this matter (it’s not very hard task :)) Regarding Jastrzębia Gora – probably you were there more often than me – I used to be there twice 🙂 Because of my profession I’m rather sticking with northern part of my country and seashore.
I’m really glad to see your optimism and such cheerful attitude – very helpful, especially for Rxy, who accuses me of demoralizing him :), but also for myself. I can’t say that I’m optimist or pesimist, I believe just cold calculations and data, but because of some dose of uncertainty luck still has it’s role to play here. Hope everything will be ok and i wish it for everyone. However If we not suceed, and VB won’t make it to our CN’s – well the little, but still consolation will be that I can have such great company here… 🙂
January 17, 2018 at 21:48
mension = mention, sorry, stupid autocorrect is switching words to some english+my native language mixture 🙂 I hate typing on the phone…
January 17, 2018 at 21:53
we need to remember the agency theory!! thats were i have put my hopes into…Also, Brit said that he still expect eu to go up to 36/37 and he told you that he was surprised you took 33k seriously… so lets just rely on that!!
January 17, 2018 at 22:29
Please be careful Nicole and the EU high number gang! Optimism is great – but I always advise we sprinkle a bit of realism in there so that people don’t get confused later when the calculations don’t work out how people expect. Bottom line – there are too many selectees in EU region. The key is what happens in Albania, Turkey and Russia. Their increased number of entries already radically changed the density of cases throughout the range. If they convert cases to approvals at the same rate as previous years, EU can’t go current or anything close. However, I think the rate of responses and approvals from those selectees will be different to previous years – hence the hope.
A couple of sobering statistics.
In DV2015 there were 18678 cases up to CN EU37000. In DV2018 there are 20617 cases at that same point – 2000 extra cases (4000 people) at the same case number.
In DV2016 there was no EU case number higher than 24517 – and that was from 14915 cases. DV2018 has 15502 cases at the same point.
In DV2017 there was no EU case number higher than 30622 – and that was from 18821 cases. DV2018 has 18162 cases at the same point. DV2017 went current (meaning all 18821 cases were current, and EU took 20516 visas from those cases – over 2000 more than are available for DV2018.
I’m not wanting to kill the optimism, just trying to make sure we don’t get carried away in a wave of “over-optimism”. Like I said – the three new “big” countries are the key – and we won’t know about response rate or approval rate from those countries for months yet (because response and approvals both grow over time). It’s going to be a nervous wait.
January 17, 2018 at 22:36
I’m from Albania with CN 31K, does the over selected form Albania take affent on higger CN numbers here? Thanks
January 17, 2018 at 22:53
I don’t really understand the question. Albania is affecting all numbers…
January 17, 2018 at 23:47
Thx Britt, good to know that I’m not the only one optimism KILLER :)… But still with Gang 🙂
January 17, 2018 at 23:57
I am enjoying your humor with this and with Toothpick Krapov.
If being a nice person gave a DV advantage, I’m sure the whole EU high number gang would make it.
January 18, 2018 at 00:22
Thank you, to be honest I have not very nice personality, I’m mischevious and nasty, but I’m guest here and trying to behave to not embarass other people, your guests :). I really like coming here and read folks questions, your answers. I’ve really learnt a lot since july last year reading this blog and thank you. I hope I do not scare people off – at least not those really looking for your advice or answer, who really need help. I don’t like slackers, whiners and trolls. Mr CRAPow behaves like the last one 🙂
January 18, 2018 at 00:37
The smartest people have the ability to be nasty at times. It’s sport. I get it.
January 18, 2018 at 08:41
okay. yes. get it. BUUUUT, you said it yourself “I obviously didnt say that clear enough. I Really dont think that will happen”. Baaaaam. There it is. Also, DV15 at cn 37xxx 2k casenumbers higher than DV18. Soooooooooooo, sucks. But DV15 went on until 43k. Soooooo, guys, baaam. i try to not look into this forum ever so often as of now… it brings me down. Ill be back in summer to celebrate!
January 18, 2018 at 14:39
Stepping away and thinking about something else would be wise. You will just go nuts otherwise.
January 18, 2018 at 10:26
Hi Brit, How are you?
I am confussed when you said:
“In DV2015 there were 18678 cases up to CN EU37000. In DV2018 there are 20617 cases at that same point – 2000 extra cases (4000 people) at the same case number.”
18678 was the people who get their visas?
January 18, 2018 at 14:27
No – that is CASES – so a comparison of density. THat is why CN EU37000 in this year is NOT like CN EU37000 in DV2015
January 18, 2018 at 16:25
Those three countries will never miss their chance. So that’s it!!!! No more hope!!!
January 18, 2018 at 17:35
I don’t think people are really understanding the point.
My suspicion is not “normal” agent activity. Normal would be in country agents who publicize the lottery and help people fill in the eDV – and maybe charge a few bucks for that. That is quite common in Nepal for instance. If this had happened in Albania etc, I would expect someone from those countries to confirm they had seen that sort of activity. If that wasn’t noticeable, how can we explain a SUDDEN doubling of entries from one year to the next. If you look at entry data, that does NOT happen without some explanation.
However, in some countries agents have been known to develop processes to mine data from various sources (like FB, college websites etc), and proactively register people. In one previous year, someone from Banglasdesh registered everyone in the phone book. The plan then is to approach the people selected, tell them they can get the Green Card for some “fee” charged by the agent. The agent won’t release details of the win until the money has been paid. Some people will pay, some won’t. Those that won’t lower the response rate. Those that pay have higher refusal rates because the agent used bad information (such as leaving off marital status etc).
So – unless there is some explanation for the douibling of entries, or unless someone can confirm there was new type of publicizing of the lottery, then the bad agent idea is quite possible.
January 18, 2018 at 17:20
Tom, you forgot to add that we are doomed and condemned to eternal damnation… (diabolic laugh and gestures ). Well, maybe not as bad as i wrote.The downside I just realised is that I can even forget about tourist visa now… Wait a minute – I’m totaly screwed…
January 17, 2018 at 13:34
I am assuming (but that might just be stereotypical thinking here, apoligies ahead to all our African blog members) that the derivative rate in Africa might be lower because not so many people can afford paying the visa fees for the whole family? And maybe therefor only one person goes, and the others will obtain visas due to family reunification? Maybe? Not sure.
January 17, 2018 at 20:49
I got it. Yes, it might be one of the reasons why the AF derivative rate is lesser than EU one.
January 17, 2018 at 15:00
1. Yes. AF has more agents who lie.
2. What are you trying yo ask?
January 17, 2018 at 15:06
nothing. I was replying to nicoles comment above, because she was assuming that the derivative rate in Africa is higher, however it turns out to be higher in europe and she wonderd why. Not sure why this comment shows up so much below
January 17, 2018 at 15:09
So below because of me. Sorry about that…
January 17, 2018 at 14:28
I successfully made it to USA last year and I would like to help anyone from Kenya. You can reach me on [email protected]. Soon I will donate to BritSimon.
January 17, 2018 at 17:13
I’ve only just filed ds260. I know it’s very late but just had lots on last year :(.
Anyway what you think my changes are to get interview before visas run out? My no is eu8xxx. I know its only an educated guess but you’ve got tonnes of experience.
Since my no is already current will I jump in front of the cue when my ds260 is processed? That’s my only hope I guess to still make it this year.
Do you know when eu visas run out last year?
Best Regards and thanks for all your help so far.
January 17, 2018 at 17:35
Once your DS260 is processed you will be interviewed. No risk.
January 18, 2018 at 12:34
I have a question with a different Subject
If I fill a ds260 the US embassy will cancel my tourist visa?
Or filling a ds260 is considered as a formal residency application
January 18, 2018 at 14:23
Completing the DS260 won’t cancel your visa, but it could make it harder to get a non immigrant visa in the future if you don’t get the DV.
January 18, 2018 at 18:32
Hello Brits & gang of EU high case numbers. Let’s hope KCC taps into the 5000 NACARA visas this year. I’m also thinking about forming my own gang of AF high CNs. Meantime I wish to emphasize on the fact that Simon’s predictions are wild guesses and should not be taken too seriously. For example when he applies an average non -response rate of 50% on regions of CNs where it’s actually 80%, 70% or 40% you see that it isn’t actually accurate;the same holds for derivative rate. I’ve been thinking about splitting the data into CN regions where the holes ,non -response ,derivative rates are more or less constant and perform piecewise analysis.
I also noticed something shocking on the AF data about refusals and approvals derivative rate(correct me if I’m wrong). It seems the latter is higher(1.8) than the former (1.3). Does this mean than embassies favour larger families?
January 18, 2018 at 18:42
My guesses aren’t “wild guesses”. Please don’t make that assumption. Yes – they are LONG RANGE predictions – and may be adjusted or may be inaccurate. As I have said THOUSANDS of times, the best answer is “wait and see”.
As for the analysis for response rate by regions. As I have mentioned, I have several models that use various methods to estimate. However, what I published recently was based on the case to approved visa rate. That takes into account the response rate, refusal rate, derivative growth rate and so on. Everything. Now – there could be differences from one year to another with how people act. And there are certainly differences caused by the different distributions (since countries have different rates of response, approval and so on).
No the embassies do not favor larger families.
January 19, 2018 at 05:19
Oh Brits so so sorry about the” wild guess ” thing…wrong choice of words; Long range was accurate. Guys I’m really sorry, I’m trying my best to learn this thing and be good as you guys (my bad ). Xarthisius thanks for the correction
January 18, 2018 at 19:49
Strong, I don’t know what makes you think that those analysis are wild guesses? I don’t think so. I’m not statistician, I hate statistics (this branch states that me and my dog have 3 legs each), but every day in my job I’m working with numbers doing flows and hydraulic calculations. It’s enough to know how to deal with numbers and i can do my own analysis and judgements. I have some basic knowledge about DV process (gained thanks to this side) and access to current and some historical numbers also thanks to this and Xarthisius’ site and i think i have idea how to use them. For sure Britt’s knowledge thanks to his past experience and more data is greater than my. And I’m sure that he knows what he is talking about. Of course there is small but very important factor that he cannot predict – future people’s behaviour – there are no numbers that can describe it, and that is uncertainty he and no one can predict. We don’t know if people will respond, show up, get approved or refused, this can be estimated but never give accurate number. For people like me this uncertainty is crucial, but i cannot and i don’t expect that Britt will tell me that I’m 100% safe or 100% at risk. I would like to ask, but i know that i will ask only to comfort myself, no such accurate prediction can be given unless last VB is released and in my CN range everything may happen.
Strong, with all respect but if you call those “wild guesses” you don’t know what you are talking about.
Answering your question – do the embassies favour larger families? Don’t think so. Derivative rate is average. Have you consider that lower derivative rate refusal may be caused by people who have forgotten that they are/were married, have children they have forgotten to mention about?
January 18, 2018 at 21:02
What I really hate about the fact that CEAC is public and free for everybody to download, is the resulting emergence of wild conspiracy theories…
@Strong your numbers are wrong. What you did incorrectly is you summed 11th column to calculate the number of people that were refused the visa. As result you ended up with 683 people and 526 cases (ratio 1.298). In order to get accurate result you need to sum all the other columns. Embassies often do not update derivative status if main applicant is refused, but they’re still denied visas. Now if you do that properly, you’ll end up with following numbers for AF:
940 people / 526 cases Refused (1.787)
3954 people / 2189 cases Issued (1.806)
Look at that! Perfect match!
It’s 2nd case in 24h when someone misrepresents the CEAC data and draws totally bogus theory. Please try to understand the whole process, before jumping to conclusions.
January 18, 2018 at 23:50
Yes – providing more data and even more analysis is a double edged sword. There is a lot of misunderstanding, and a lot of fear created. This is my 6th year of DV world – and this confusion phenomenon is not new. However, I think most people would rather know something than be totally in the dark.
January 18, 2018 at 21:04
Based on my understanding(not so good in math) if EU continues receiving this many visas , the bucket will fill pretty soon.???
January 18, 2018 at 23:08
No, your understandins is wrong. VB progress is so slow because of capacity, but also because that process is spread throughout whole year. with 18300 quota for Eu this is means average 1525 visas monthly. If you look at october and november there were around 1400 and 1300 visas issued – so do not panic.
January 19, 2018 at 07:44
you should improve your math 🙁
January 19, 2018 at 05:22
Oh Brits so so sorry about the” wild guess ” thing…wrong choice of words; Long range was accurate. Guys I’m really sorry, I’m trying my best to learn this thing and be good as you guys (my bad ). Xarthisius thanks for the correction
January 19, 2018 at 06:35
Hello Brits,I trust you are doing great.I want to find out whether Trump has shot down the DV lottery?I hear the lottery is no more and the DV visas will be given to those already there filing for permanent residency etc.
Please can you confirm this?
January 19, 2018 at 06:36
This is discussion – nothing more than that at this time.
January 19, 2018 at 19:50
Sir what will happen to 2018 selectees not yet current if what “dv applicant ” is saying comes into effect. Please answer sir.
January 19, 2018 at 19:54
I have answered this many times. There is no impact to DV2018.
January 19, 2018 at 06:44
Please do you think in your own observations,Trumps ranting could limit or affect more in take of DV2019,especially Africa now referred as Sh*t hole?
January 19, 2018 at 06:45
It’s noty just Trump. No one is fighting for DV, it will be sacrificed for a deal on the DREAMERS.
January 19, 2018 at 15:23
hey brit. I know i said Id step away- however i have noticed that in dv14, Russia, albania and turkey also had selectees close to 4k…
So im a bit sceptical that the bad agents theory will prove right… also, there are very few, I think in russia close to none refusals in these 3 countries so far. Of cours i dont have the entry data, maybe in 14 they were just that much selectees without significant more entries… not sure. I hope youll be right at th end. Im so damn close to 3300…
January 19, 2018 at 17:01
Is it summer and time for celebration already? ? I know how you feel. You are Simon’s blog addict. I feel the same, want to step away not to freak out, but coming back with hope to read that something has changed. About your concerns – my thoughts were similiar, if agents are involved why issuance rate is so high. Such thinking is wrong. Don’t look only at refusals, it is low so far. In this case i would rather look at no responses and less at no shows. If entry is fake or done by dishonest agent it will rather stay as no response than refused, because person selected won’t even have chance to proceed and will stay as no response. We don’t know how many of no responses are such cases. So this agents theory may be right, partialy wrong or wrong, but don’t judge it by looking only on refusals. All 5 countries have c.a. 4500 selectees, large part of them won’t even proceed. Those may be the entries Brit is talking about. Of course there is still large part of entrants, who did things right and may proceed without problem.
January 19, 2018 at 17:11
thats not what i meant, carlos. i was also saying that it is not the first time that these 3 countries have so many selectees. they had significantly less in the past 2 years, but these years were also underselected. in dv14 for example they nearly had just that much selectees. that is why i am wondering about the bad agents theory…
January 19, 2018 at 17:24
I think that bad agents theory is a little bid crazy because how these agents gets the picture from their clients for the entry to participate in the lotery?
January 19, 2018 at 17:44
It has happened in the past. It’s been documented (link below), and there are special measures enforced in some embassies because of it (Like in Moscow where many cases go into AP before interview, or Ghana with an incredible refusal rate). The photo often comes from photo ID cards, like those used on drivers licenses, University IDs and so on.
If you look at the U2 countries which have been hitting the limits for years, you have to wonder why their success rate (selectees to approved visas) is so much lower for Ukraine than Uzbekistan. So – the question really becomes, did the three countries have a natural doubling of entries from one year to the next by totally natural growth – or was there some outside influence.
Now – read this article than documents what you seem to think is “crazy”.
Of course you would need a program to get the data and fill in applications – but as Xarthisius has shown – that is not impossible.
January 21, 2018 at 18:07
But what was the quota for that year ? And what happened was there more refusals or no response?
January 19, 2018 at 17:20
2014 had 140K selectees – HUGE number. So – every country got more selectees than a “normal” year, and the country limit was 6k in that year – so you don’t have a reason to doubt based on that year.
I can’t be certain, but I do know more about this than you seem to realize. No one really can tell how things will end this year. So perhaps “wait and see” is the best answer for you.
January 19, 2018 at 17:28
Brit, one question. I’ve read that 2014 was your year, is that right? And that was massively overselected year. What was your EU CN if it’s not a secret?? Can be with xxx-es ?
January 19, 2018 at 18:17
My (my wife’s) CN was 2014EU31XXX.
At that time the recognized foremost expert (Raevsky) calculated I was in a slightly risky, not 100% safe range. In the end, I went current in June and processed AOS by September.
January 19, 2018 at 18:34
Thx, well risky 31k with over 40k at the end – that’s big difference ?But i like such mistakes except being stressed to the end. I hope you did similar „mistake” this year ? Thank you.
January 19, 2018 at 18:43
I have been doing this for several years and there is always an unknown factor. There is always the “grief stages” that people go through. I’m used to it.
January 19, 2018 at 18:57
Well it’s almost impossible to calmly „wait&see” as you advise. Now every day has grief and hope moments in turns. I don’t know which is better here: to think about the worst and have nice surprise or think the best expect the worst. Usually i follow the second but i don’t like it in this situation 🙂 Thx for your words, help and being here.
January 19, 2018 at 17:34
brit, belive me, I hope you do and I hope youre right!!
January 19, 2018 at 19:02
go agents, go agents, go go go go agents!
January 19, 2018 at 19:07
Well, first: to late like over one year. 2nd please remember that some of those cases may be someone’s tragedy or very big problem. I don’t wish it to anyone…
January 19, 2018 at 19:13
well, if agents randomly register people without their knowlege, i truly hope that this is what happened! And even better if those people randomly registered do not step into the trap of paying thousands of dollars. Entering this lottery is super easy. You can do that without shady agents.
January 19, 2018 at 19:25
Well, as I remember you live in Western part of Europe. Such situation may be seen harmless over there, some idiots took names from phonebook, fb or anything. Pasted some random pictures and we have entrant. No harm. But in Eastern Europe some things may be different (no offence, i also live here) and not so harmless as they may look like.
January 19, 2018 at 19:31
And one more thing, less darky. Imagine that someone registered you, or just your name without your knowledge while you register yourself with clean intention. You won’t be ever selected or you will be refused because of several entries you don’t even know about… and it’s completely not you fault.
January 19, 2018 at 19:36
OKAY: LETS HOPE FOR NO AGENTS THEN.
January 19, 2018 at 19:58
CAPS in action? Easy. Rxy i can see you are very nervous. To ease your stress I’ll give you my final cutoff. Spoiler warning everyone except Rxy don’t read below. Warning! Reading prohibited
33600 I hope you are in range, I’m not.
Everyone who read this despite prohibition: don’t flood Simon with questions about accuracy of it ? He has nothing in common with it.
January 19, 2018 at 20:27
Was your number based on some statistical method – or just a guess?
January 19, 2018 at 20:46
how did you get that number?
January 20, 2018 at 12:45
Both + gut feeling ?
January 20, 2018 at 15:25
that doesnt sound very convincing
January 19, 2018 at 19:40
Yes – that happens too.
January 20, 2018 at 03:54
And I am passing by KCC calmly, like nothing is happening, Benefit of being in Kentucky. 😀
February 1, 2018 at 13:30
My prediction for final Africa cutoff is much lower than yours, Brit, – between 36000 and 41000. Nothing close to 46600
February 1, 2018 at 14:28
AF final cutoff is above Ghanian and Egyptian limits, and at about the same level as the cutoff for Democratic Republic of Congo, maybe just a little above it. Situation is similar to European
February 1, 2018 at 14:50
Really – you are confused. Explain your method, there is a factor you are missing.
February 1, 2018 at 15:50
Or it might be there is a factor you are missing. Or both of us might be missing a factor.
February 1, 2018 at 14:44
Explain your method.
February 1, 2018 at 14:47
Brit , do you think his predictions make sense?
February 1, 2018 at 14:51
No – he is missing some factor for sure.
February 1, 2018 at 15:43
Brit, let’s wait and see, as you like to say.
February 1, 2018 at 15:43
Same as yours.
February 1, 2018 at 13:40
My prediction for final Europe cutoff is also much lower than yours, Brit, – between 22000 and 23000. Nothing close to 33000.
February 1, 2018 at 14:07
When your prediction is based on? Can you give more information please?? Thanks
February 1, 2018 at 14:13
Sure, lushka. It is based on the files Brit published.
February 1, 2018 at 14:23
Obviously, the EU final cutoff is above Ukrainian and Uzbekistani limits and below Russia’s limit. Finally, Russia did not lose anything by having a special cutoff
February 1, 2018 at 14:32
your prediction is even more bullshit then my 2tice as high response rate. But no surprise- you simply honor your name.
February 1, 2018 at 14:38
Thank you, Rxy, for not honoring my name. I sometimes hate it as well.
February 1, 2018 at 14:47
So you have misunderstood something for sure.
February 1, 2018 at 15:16
No problems, I am the most Tolerant Genius
February 1, 2018 at 15:18
Well your self acclaimed Genius status is looking at risk at the moment, since you have stumbled with basic math. 🙂
February 1, 2018 at 15:24
What I am trying to say I am the Genius of Tolerancy as well (in addition to what you already know – https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2018/jan/06/trump-tweets-i-am-a-stable-genius-video )
June 16, 2018 at 12:23
My prediction 22000 to 23000 for EU was good. July VB misses 23000 by 3325 (23325 for EU), and that is a very good precision. My prediction for AF was incorrect because of the travel ban. Also, August VB might list a much larger number for EU because of redistribution. If redistribution were not the case, my prediction was precise.
June 16, 2018 at 12:58
February 1, 2018 at 14:37
How did you even come up with those predictions? I’m not very good on studying the charts and also can’t even download the charts , but what you are saying doesn’t make sense with the info we have so far!
February 1, 2018 at 14:41
From my point of view, on the contrary, it makes perfect sense.
February 1, 2018 at 15:39
Even though I am not a Genius in Math (but rather both in Stability – that is why I will not stumble as Brit has concerns about, and in Tolerancy as well), my prediction is very consistent with slower VB rates than in 2017.
February 1, 2018 at 15:59
I’m sorry but I think you are leaving out every single hole
February 1, 2018 at 16:04
There are no holes, same as no collusion, you know. https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/10/politics/trump-no-collusion/index.html
February 1, 2018 at 16:11
Tom, there is no doubt that Dtrump is a good comedian.
February 1, 2018 at 16:16
I’m slowly realizing that…. it’s kind of funny ?
February 1, 2018 at 16:21
Well, to give you a benefit of the doubt in that that is all for being a comedian (though thank you for valuing my abilities in this area), I will add that there were 28500 winners in EU region in DV-2017 and 41706 ones in DV-2018.
February 1, 2018 at 16:38
Please stop trolling… There are people reading this blog (and comments) that are not necessarily fluent in English. They’re gonna read your numbers and needlessly stress over them. Moreover, providing raw numbers without any reasoning behind them is just useless and in this case: harmful. You’re free to draw your own conclusions and make your own predictions, but don’t use this place as a platform for disseminating them.
February 1, 2018 at 17:00
Yep – well said. In this case his own alternative facts are based on his lack of knowledge.
February 1, 2018 at 16:51
OK – so you have not taken into account there was a second draw in DV2017. There were 28500 winners initially selected in EU, then there were around 5-6k more selectees added.
The density is also different, and I’m not sure if you have taken the changed quotas into account.
Cut back on the overconfidence please. Some people might misunderstand that, and believe you actually know what you are doing, and that your analysis is somehow equivalent to mine. Yours are not accurate.
February 1, 2018 at 17:10
February 1, 2018 at 16:30
No , again the holes!!! Brit you need to get into this conversation. My English is not good. Please!
February 1, 2018 at 23:03
Agreed. Based on DV-2015 taking into account proposed quota 18300 for Europe I get 31200 as final cutoff. Not a big difference, a number of other factors could have a small effect around 2000 anyway. Close enough.
February 1, 2018 at 23:08
As an example, quota 19900 will lead to 35000 max cutoff.
February 2, 2018 at 00:15
So… probably best to stay away from confident sounding statements about cutoffs then….
February 2, 2018 at 00:19
You are acting funny but beeing antipathetic. I will not be surprised if you figured out to be someone who supports to end this “diverssary” program. Stop doing politics and give us your calculations. Its not as simple as “rule of three”.
February 2, 2018 at 11:16
Good day Sir, please clarify me.
1- on the ds260- NUMBER OF EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS ATTENDED- is primary school included? I mean do we start counting from Primary school or from secondary school up?
2- on my step son’s form- on FATHER’S NAME, I put my name, his step father, but at the end where they ask- did anyone assist you in filling this application? I selected YES. and for the RELATIINSHIP, I put STEP FATHER. Was that OK or was suppose to put FATHER?
February 2, 2018 at 14:57
2. It’s no problem.
February 3, 2018 at 01:09
Hello mr simons
I am a dv lottery winner and i am in the us now .
As i did with my case
I entered the us for the activation entry
First entry i mean
Then i returned to my country if origin and i stayed for a year and rentered the us again !!!
My question is i have a friend who is a dv 2018 winner and he and family enterd the us for the activation entry
Can they do the same
Stay a year after this first entry by going back for their country of origin !!!!?
February 3, 2018 at 04:13
UP TO 1 year – not 1 day more than a year.
February 14, 2018 at 04:16
1.What is the meaning Quota and Cases 2018 from this image?
2.9600 poeples ill call to interview an Asia Region?
February 14, 2018 at 04:42
1. Explained in the article.
2. Wait and see.
February 14, 2018 at 05:43
Thank you for all your work. I am just a bit confused about this whole ordeal. You said that three counturies has huge greencard selectee increase in EU region. I don’t understand how is that possible. Don’t greencard selectees have a predetermined quota?
For example, I’m from Turkey. Don’t they have some kind of pre-determined number for us? Why would they (numbers are random) choose 5000 people, if they going to give greencard to only 500 people? I know selectee number should be higher because of no-shows and rejected people. But why would the number 5000 increase or decrease year to year if the number 500 is constant? Shouldn’t selectee number be a constant too? Why the huge increase and why is this allowed?
I am around the 16000 numbers and a bit freaking out 😀
Thank you again.
February 14, 2018 at 17:37
Countries are not pre-allocated a number of visas or selectees like you are assuming. All the entries within a region are together, so if one country has a larger number of entries, they will get more selectees.
February 18, 2018 at 13:35
Hi brit, my date of birth on my high school certificate ( error from school) is different than that on my birth certificate. but on my degree and other document, that reflects exactly like on my birth certificate. can that pose a problem during interview day?
February 18, 2018 at 16:09
March 21, 2018 at 08:22
Hello Britt Simon . Hope you doing great. A friend of mine went for his interview and was refused but the embassy didn’t give him his passport back. He said a native took the passport after they interrogated him. He said the man told him they will call him when they are done with adminstrative processing meanwhile he is being refused. Is it normal
March 21, 2018 at 13:42
A 221(g) refusal is AP – so that means the case is not finally decided yet.
March 25, 2018 at 17:56
Why the AF quota jumped up to 21600 from 20000? Nigeria is still not eligible for DV. There should not be a big raise in population. What did I miss?
March 25, 2018 at 18:05
It wasn’t 20,000.
March 25, 2018 at 19:01
20212 based on DV4Roger calc in 2015.
March 25, 2018 at 22:38
Incorrect. Here is what he has calculated.
Allocations vary year to year based on population stats and country changes.
March 26, 2018 at 19:49
April 5, 2018 at 09:15
Brit, how is the quota for each country calculated? I understand for SA region is between 1500 and 1660, am I wrong? Is there a chance that it could be less than that?
April 5, 2018 at 09:24
April 5, 2018 at 17:00
There is a formula used for calculating the quota. It’s a percentage of the global allocation – so SA has 1500 quota at 50,000 globally. But they don’t have issue all the visas – so yes – they can stop before that.
April 6, 2018 at 13:03
Good morning brit. How are you?
Where can I see the fórmula?
April 6, 2018 at 13:50