OK – I have uploaded “part two” of my movie length video. If nothing else this should help you get to sleep – this latest video is VERY long. So – if you are someone that really likes to know the details behind the comments, please go and watch that.
For others that just want the main point, and perhaps can’t understand my videos – let me cut to the chase about my thoughts and predictions.
The number of selectees is low in DV2020. So low in fact that we “may” see a second draw (check in October). There are a number of factors that could affect the lottery this year – which are fully explained in the video. But forgetting those for the moment, let’s go though the regions.
I expect some regions to go current (at least for the selectees we know of right now). Comparing selectee numbers and case numbers to DV2019 and DV2018 we are generally in good shape.
AF region looks good – apart from some risk for Egypt. Egypt has high response rates and high success rates, so it’s selectee number means there could be a chance that the 7% per country limit could be reached. In that case AF region could go current – but Egypt could remain on a lower number at the end of the year. I do NOT know where that cutoff would come – I am only speculating it might happen. You will have to “wait and see” if you have a high case number from Egypt.
AS region. If the travel ban continues, AS region is likely to go current. Nepal could also go current – although Nepal could also get close to the 7% limit, so like Egypt, there is a chance (although smaller) that there would be a final limit imposed for the highest case numbers in Nepal. Again – I cannot be certain about this – “wait and see” is the answer for high case numbers in Nepal.
EU region could also go current. Russia has a high selectee number, but responses and approval rates in Russia are not as high as Egypt so I am less concerned about the 7% limit. But only time will tell. Again – “wait and see”
OC region. I think OC will be current. There are no large selectee numbers for any given country and the holes rate is huge, so we can expect to see much higher final case numbers on the VB than we have previously seen.
SA region. The selectee count for SA seems high, but if you look more carefully it is mostly Cuba. So – if response or approval rates are low in Cuba, then the region might have a chance of being current. However, there may be some risk for the highest case numbers in the region.
OK – I hope that is helpful!