The numbers are released – theses are for July interviews.
AFRICA 36500 (Last month 34150)
Except:
Egypt:27100 (Last month 24675)
Ethiopia: Matches AF (Last month 30000)
ASIA – 6850 (Last month 5950)
Except:
Nepal:6475
EUROPE – 35700 (Last month 34125)
OCEANIA – 1250 (Last month 1175)
SOUTH AMERICA, and the CARIBBEAN – 1175 (Last month 1075)
May 12, 2015 at 13:02
My cn is 2015af625**. Could be any chance.
May 12, 2015 at 13:23
You can only wait and see. It is looking more risky now since the last VB
May 12, 2015 at 13:11
AF201550XXX, wondering if it will get current with this snail speed. Any ideas?
May 12, 2015 at 13:19
I will be posting predictions for next month after the 2NLs go out – in about 2 weeks. As for the final number – I am not sure at this time.
May 12, 2015 at 13:23
Thanks britsimon will be waiting
May 12, 2015 at 13:12
Thanks britosmon for answering ma questions,but I fear I wont even go current by august
May 12, 2015 at 13:20
My CN is 52XXX do i have a chance to be current?
May 12, 2015 at 13:28
hi mr Britsimon, my case num is 2016AF29***, am i going to be safe? when can you suppose my interview date be? is there the cut off for the congo democratic?
thanks
May 12, 2015 at 13:40
HI sir. i have won the lottery this year anf my cas number is AFXXX35XXX. i have started already filling the DV260. i juste wante to know if i have chance to get an interview and whene can be my interview ? ( just an approxtimat ). i won forget also to thank for all your efort that you are doing to help us. thakns you a lot
May 12, 2015 at 14:07
Your case number is certain to be interviewed.
May 12, 2015 at 22:44
witch interview month please ?
May 12, 2015 at 13:45
Hallo brit
What do you think fort my case .2015AF492**
May 12, 2015 at 14:09
If it were my case number I would feel confident.
May 12, 2015 at 14:18
hello brit…i have heard something like there is only 9600 visas issued in africa…if by the end,they dont reach the quota of 20000,what will happen???and my cn is 2015 af 579xx….should i stop dreaming?? sincerely
May 12, 2015 at 14:29
They are issuing 2000 per month with 5 months to go…
May 12, 2015 at 14:21
Hi Brit!
What a disaster for EU!
I have a high CN (EU407xx) and I am starting to think I am not going to make it. I think my chances go through the August Bulletin. Let’s hope it won’t be as last years’s August Bulletin and we see some increase in the numbers.
On the good side of things I think there won’t be much backlog cases pending for the last two months and that should let us see higher numbers, we will see it when they send the 2NLs…
So frustrating this situation….
What are your thoughts, man?
May 12, 2015 at 14:31
Well I expected the backlog to reduce – it clearly hasn’t so that is still a factor. However, your number has always been in a risky range. The early advances in EU made people get confident of a high finish, but it was just the backlog effect.
May 12, 2015 at 14:30
Hello Brtisimon, Do you still think SA will reach 1400? If so, when will i be interview?
May 12, 2015 at 14:49
Thanks.
May 12, 2015 at 14:35
you have’nt respond to the second part of my question…my cn is 2015af 579xx…risky or not???
May 12, 2015 at 14:56
There is some risk…
May 12, 2015 at 14:50
Dear BritSimon, thank you for your work.
What do you think about my CN EU38900?
Please be sincere….thank you!!
May 12, 2015 at 15:00
You still have a chance – you can only wait and see..
May 12, 2015 at 15:10
Hi Brit.
My number is af50070. What is my chance given this slow progress of the VB?
May 12, 2015 at 19:10
YOu have a great chance – just watch and keep hoping
May 12, 2015 at 15:23
Hello Simon,
Well, I feel extremely bad after I read the vb results. Although deep in my heart I know that my AF447xx has no chance, I still try to find a hope.
There have been 9500 visas for Africa so far. We know that there are 39xxx real case and 50xxx gaps. My number is in the middle. In real cases let us say that my number counts as AF22xxx as worst scenario. Based on information you have how many real cases where scheduled for interviews? I want to know how many gaps in 36500 and how many gaps left. That can help in determining the last two vbs. So, if we assumed that of those remaining cases up to July 8000 visa where given. That means only 2500 visas left. In that case do you believe they will wait for those with low numbers to fill out there applications? I can’t communicate what I need to say. I wish if I can call you as I live in the USA. I have done no thing toward processing my application. I wonder if I should start or not. I feel really bad. The problem is that they don’t have any obligation to issue 50000 visas as there were years when the number didn’t exceed 33xxx.
I’m really depressed.
Sincerely,
Sue Ali
May 12, 2015 at 19:11
I believe you will get an interview. Relax, and wait and see.
May 12, 2015 at 15:28
Hi, BritSimon.
If AS101xx(RoA) were your cn, how would you feel in this situation?
Thank you for your great work always!
May 12, 2015 at 19:11
I would feel nervous but quite hopeful.
May 12, 2015 at 15:36
Hi Brit,
In July we will know cut off numbers for september interview…
1/ Is there a possibility for the cut off number to change (higher #) with the VB of August?
2/ Is that already happened before?
3/ Any chance for SA16xx?
Thank you for your answers.
May 12, 2015 at 19:12
1. No
2. No
3. Maybe, but risky.
May 13, 2015 at 07:52
Sorry to ask again, SA1400? AUGUST VB? THANKS.
May 13, 2015 at 21:47
August VB = September interviews – clear?
So – the answer is “hopefully”
May 12, 2015 at 15:43
hello britsimon
I think that that the number of African visa is 22000 , with the statisctics you present there is still 14000 visa , if we do a simple calcul in 34000 visa bulttins we have 8000 , so for 14000 still we may have 74000 ,
still haave chance for AF 68000 or we just making dreams .
what do you think ???
May 12, 2015 at 19:13
YOu cannot calculate like that at all.
68000 is very risky now…
May 12, 2015 at 15:43
ASIA 6,850 Except:Nepal: 6,475
What does that mean?
I am from Nepal and my number is in AS 75XX. Do you think I have a chance? I don’t understand what do they mean by Except Nepal: 6475??
May 12, 2015 at 19:14
THey are limiting Nepal at a different number than the rest of Asia. They will (hopefully) increase the Nepal number in the next VB. AS75XX from Nepal still has a chance in my opinion..
May 12, 2015 at 15:45
Hi brit
Thank for your good job ,pleaz what do think about my cn 2015af000598xx.i’m very stressed.
May 12, 2015 at 19:16
Yeah I understand your stress. Your number just became a bit more at risk – so all you can do is wait and hope.
May 12, 2015 at 15:57
Im Asking About A Probleme in my ds-260 informations :
When I registered first at the dv lottery I wrote My name same i have in My Id Card and passport in morroco and it’s like this ( El HAMDI BADR-EDDINE )
After The Results are Out Im A winner .. And No one can describe the Happyness I got when i saw the results ..and with a very good case
after that it’s time to complete the ds-260 ..
In the giving name they didn’t let me write my first name like this BADR-EDDINE
so i wrote it like this BADR EDDINE With Space bitwn Them ..
Is this a probleme or my name with be changed in the consulate ?
That will not waste my chances to get the visa ??
Thank You for Reading my question .. and hope u can answer me
May 12, 2015 at 19:17
THat should not present a problem. Proceed as normal…
May 12, 2015 at 16:09
What a disappointment this VB was! Is it still the backlog that’s causing this slow pace? They surely can’t be running out of visas with only 9500 issued at the end of April. I was really hoping I would be current in July with AF38XXX. I’m probably being ridiculous, but I’m almost doubting they’ll even get to me, but it’s too close to give up I guess.
May 12, 2015 at 19:18
Yes you are “being ridiculous”. Relax.
May 12, 2015 at 16:31
ehhh God the last visa bulletin annihilated our hope … please sir I cn is 205AF69XXX, is that with this new visa bulletin I have a chance to have an interview?
May 12, 2015 at 19:18
It is looking very unlikely. 🙁
May 12, 2015 at 16:32
I know one thing , the God who has enabled me to , will provide everything . therefore worry about anything , but in everything , do know your needs to God , I go running in August . in the name of jesus Christ.
May 12, 2015 at 19:19
Good luck!
May 12, 2015 at 16:41
So Brit is it right to say that the remaining visas for AF ARE 14k and that since they issue 2k per month nd its 5months to go does it mean they issue visas on 100% rate per month….think something is wrong on my opinion coz for one in the VISA BULLETIN ARCHIVES they is no any slow rate as witnesed per bulletin in 2015, lets hope by next 2vbs left there will be a very high jump for the AF Numbers my case no. AF201570***what do think is gona happen plz Brit Expalin
May 12, 2015 at 19:24
No the remaining is about 12 – and some of thos will go to AOS. They always issue more for AF in SEptember (about 3000) due to completing AP cases. So – 2000 x 4 plus 3000 plus AoS.
May 12, 2015 at 17:32
Hi Simon,
Based on this disappointing VB, what would you predict from these options for a CN of EU39100?
A. August Interview
B: September Interview
C: No Interview
Thank you,
Mike
May 12, 2015 at 19:29
B
May 13, 2015 at 08:46
Do u imply that in sep eu cns will increase?
May 13, 2015 at 20:40
THat is a possibility.
May 12, 2015 at 17:41
Hi brit
What is the last case number for 2015 DV lottery on africa.tour opinion please.
May 12, 2015 at 19:32
I don’t know exactly – we can only wait and see
May 12, 2015 at 18:12
Dear sir do you think i have a chance my cn is af462xx
May 12, 2015 at 19:38
Yes.
May 12, 2015 at 18:32
Brit, 2 questions
1. how many visas typically go to AP and AOS each year for AF?
2. Do you have a rough idea as to how many were backlog cases this past visa bulletin and how many were new cases for July?
Thanks again. Holding onto your info as our hope!
May 12, 2015 at 19:50
1. Aos is about 5% of the total. AP varies – they try to close out AP cases toward the end.
2. I will know exactly how many once I see the 2NL in transit cases in the CEAC data (about 1.5 weeks from now).
May 16, 2015 at 23:00
around 1,100 then for AF based on 22,000?
May 17, 2015 at 01:47
Again, after 2nl…
May 12, 2015 at 18:36
hello britt simon, just a quick question………..i have been trying to caluculate the CNs of course i don’t know as much as you.
but i have been calculating them simplistically, like for example i read about your Iran AP anaylsis and like there are 5000 visas and Iran lets say takes 2500, there are 2500 left for rest of Asia………..but the CN would not simply add 2500 literally just because there are 2500 visas left right? ………the CN itself would actually be higher
the CN and the actual visas avaialbe won’t match each other right? the CN would actually be higher?
im confused lol
May 12, 2015 at 19:46
wow yes you are confused. THe 2500 would be spread among ROA cases throughout the whole range – not simply adding numbers on top. ROA already has some of those 2500….
May 12, 2015 at 22:32
ok britsimon, i am not as good as you at crunching these numbers lol…..and i know there are tons of variables that even you don’t know what’s going to happen.
just answer me this one question and you’ll never hear from me again………….perhaps until the next VB lol
ok when it comes to Asia, it seems like it’s the only region where the monthly VBs doesn’t really matter to the final result (i’ve been seeing these poor selectees from Africa and their stress)……..the only thing that really matters and this has been the case pretty much from the beginning is the Iranian AP, and that is still true today and has always been true?
is that correct? ………..so there’s really no new information or speculation when it comes to Asia no matter what the VBs are (excepting nepal ppl of course), just waiting for AP of Iran results and waiting until July comes. Is that correct?…………..if it is, i will not go on this site until July and I can just chill out until then!
Thanks!
May 13, 2015 at 03:26
There are Asian numbers up to 19000. Most people assumed it would hit the same as last year – but there are plenty of people confused in Asia region as well – so I’m not sure I understand your point. The difference with Asia is that it is much simpler to understand what is happening….
May 13, 2015 at 10:33
sorry dude! im a rambler! even online lol……….my question is………is the Iranian AP pretty much the only thing that matters to the final Asian VB,
nothing else (monthly VB, Nepal) affects the final cut off at all…………..just the Iran AP
because if that’s true………i can pretty much stop watching the numbers until JUly 10th, two months of chillin!
thanks for your patience 🙂
May 13, 2015 at 20:04
No I think you are misunderstanding. Iranian AP is important because ALL IRanian cases are concentrated in the first 8000 ish case numbers. That means ALL will be current. Now their success rate (approvals) depends on how many get put on AP and how fast that AP finishes. Iranian cases can take longer on AP than other countries (special security concerns and an uncooperative government).
OK – why is that determining the numbers in Asia. Well if we assume the AS quota is about 8000 to 8500 and Nepal will take 3500 of those (they will) then Iran and the rest of Asia account for 4500/5000 between them. The pace of AP in Iranian cases will decide whether Iran gets 2200 visas (like DV2014) or 3000+ visas (like years previous to DV2014).
Now – that difference is a big deal to “rest of Asia”. If ROA gets about 200 approved visas per 1000 case numbers (for example) – an 800 difference between 2200 and 3000 will alter the final AS max number by 4000 case numbers.
May 13, 2015 at 10:35
like………..is everything you said about Asia since January still the same today?
May 13, 2015 at 20:04
Sort of – but obviously time improves our understanding.
May 13, 2015 at 22:33
ok man, im sure i AM misunderstanding lol……….but let’s wait for those AP results, im not going to bother you asking what are the chances for my number lol……….i can see that it’s pretty much the same question over and over again anyway and the same answer but really thanks for your patience.
Final questions: when will you do an update on Iranian AP so we can get that clearer picture?
other than that……..i’ll take your advice and wait and see 🙂
May 13, 2015 at 22:45
I have to do some database work to dig in to Iranian ap. I’m swamped with my job and Britsimon stuff – so I hope to do that in the next few days but we will see…
May 14, 2015 at 01:58
ok thanks a lot………for the first time im getting jitters……do your best………i know you have your own life as well……….but this is some kind of medieval torture, please do your best to update us as soon as possible……..be well, i’ll be watching this page. 🙂
May 14, 2015 at 02:05
🙂
May 12, 2015 at 19:49
Mr Brit,
previously you assure me about my CN AS 99XX, after your intelligent work what you think?
May 12, 2015 at 19:50
still pretty good!
May 12, 2015 at 19:53
Brit,
We are from South America and became current with this newly released bulletin. When should we expect the interview and the 1st and 2nd NL?
Thanks!
May 12, 2015 at 19:54
2NLs come out in about 1 to 2 weeks
May 12, 2015 at 20:54
Hi Simon.
Thank you for all the information, it has been really helpful.
I won the first stage of Dv2016 lottery and I have a twin sister. I would like to know if my twin sister can come with me if I get a visa. Is there any low which allows me to do this?
May 13, 2015 at 03:37
No I am afraid not. As an LPR you cannot sponsor a sibling. Once a US citizen (5 years) you can start but that process has a LONG waiting period (about 12 years at the moment).
May 12, 2015 at 20:57
How do you think the reason is the decrease of the bulletin for July?
May 13, 2015 at 03:38
It was only 192 case numbers less than my estimate for AF region – so it isn’t that big a surprise.
May 12, 2015 at 22:33
hi brit ths you for all please my case is 2015AF53XXX i have chance?
May 13, 2015 at 05:01
Yes very good chance
May 12, 2015 at 23:06
Hi Simon! Please How much days between the 2nl and the interview?
May 13, 2015 at 05:00
6 weeks plus.
May 13, 2015 at 00:14
Mer simon, j’ai essaié de lire toutes vous repense, j’ai une question!! dire tout sous 60000 pour AF est sûr lorsque tes prédictions sont 37### a 39###. Maintenant 500 de déférence ont vous fit tellement de doute même pour 55###?? Par ce que mon CN est 598##
May 13, 2015 at 04:55
You will need to post in English.
May 13, 2015 at 00:44
Brit this is so discouraging, could U pls tell me if 75,000 AF2015 still stand a chance. If yes, what’s the possibility? cuz my heart is burning.
May 13, 2015 at 04:53
Honestly – I don’t think so. It has always been a risky number and with two VBs left it looks impossible to get to that number. Sorry.
May 13, 2015 at 01:23
With CN 2015AS10000 the American Dream was vibrated?
May 13, 2015 at 05:18
Evaporated 😉
May 13, 2015 at 01:36
Hi Simon,
My CN is 2015AF421XX, due to very slow processing this year I sorta anticipated things and got my I-134 ready from now, would it still be fine since my interview won’t be scheduled till at least August?
Also do you consider my number to be on the safe side?
Cheers
May 13, 2015 at 02:31
Hello Brit
Have you made analysis regarding effect of earthquake in Nepal? Im really sad with the slow vb progress and limitation for nepal.#cn745x Nepal.
May 13, 2015 at 05:08
No I have not – but clearly the VB limit was because of the situation in Nepal. You still stand a good chance – just wait and see what happens.
May 13, 2015 at 05:15
Dear Simon
should i give up now with case number 7850 from Nepal or still some chance. ..tq ….
May 13, 2015 at 05:17
You have a small chance – you cannot give up now…
May 13, 2015 at 06:12
Hi brit
You said that cn below 60000 can feel safe, afterward you predicted that the cutt-off for June will be of 37k-39k but there is only difference of 500, what shows that you forecast are good.i shall like knowing how much of cn it has between 36500 and 60000. what i has there always hope for those who have a cn enter 50000-5999.thank
May 13, 2015 at 21:54
Given that the VB was below my lowest number it shows that there are more backlog cases than I hoped. So – Even 59999 has some reason to feel nervous at this point. We can only wait and see what happens.
May 13, 2015 at 06:43
Dear Britsimon,
I am from Nepal my ( cn 755* ) 2015. At amid of chaos in Nepal, to reach my cn (755*).
it has to increase by 1080 is this possible in next 2vbs?
despite of cutoff for nepal fell at cn 6475. what your assumption is there any hope to be current and when?
May 13, 2015 at 21:52
It is possible – we can only wait and see
May 13, 2015 at 07:19
Hi Britsimon, when i ask u if i have a chance CN AF55*** before this vb you told me there is a chance, but according to this months VB what do you think? may i still have a chance to be current or it is over? thanks
May 13, 2015 at 21:48
You still have a chance – we just have to wait and see
May 13, 2015 at 08:00
hi to all THS brit please my case is 2015AF5637X i’m lucky?
May 13, 2015 at 20:43
YOu have a good chance still. Wait and see….
May 13, 2015 at 08:05
Hi Brit
You have given me hope up to this point.I am grateful.But at this point,let’s call a spade a spade.Is there hope for cn af2015xxx73k
May 13, 2015 at 20:42
I think that number has very very little chance – basically it needs a miracle.
May 13, 2015 at 08:24
@ af58xxx, it is hope against hope, it is me with my God I refuse to give up.
May 13, 2015 at 20:41
Good. Good luck!
May 13, 2015 at 08:49
Asia will close at 101xx?
May 13, 2015 at 20:39
I don’t know for sure – we have to wait and see….
May 13, 2015 at 09:00
Thanks for answear me brit im from marocco my case number abou 45xxx that is good .. thanks
May 13, 2015 at 09:11
Dear Mr. Brit,
Thank you so much for your kind, professional and generous work.
My CN is EU 37XXX, so I assume I’d have my interview around august (I hope!!!)
I am going mad because of my one whole year of stress and panic ☺, so please, if you don’t mind, answer my final panic questions:
1. Low CN for Africa will affect other regions for balance reasons?
2. Just 91k winners for DV2016 means we 2015 are so many more than available Green Cards?
3. I completed my DS260 late, last august. That will affect the scheduling of my interview?
4. I completed my DS260 in august, then I got married. I wrote to KCC and an automatic responder suggested me to simply add my wife on the web site with a new DS260 for her. I did it in september, but in my previous closed DS260 I am still “single”. Do you think that could affect my interview?
Thank you so much for your patience and your attention
May 13, 2015 at 20:09
1. No the regions have their own quotas.
2. WE have always known DV2015 was over selected. The 91K might make that clear to more people but it was always clear to me and I have battled with people to get that message across.
3. No.
4. You should have updated your DS260 to married and listed your spouse details. If it were my case, I would do that now – but it is your call since you might go current next month.