The numbers are released – theses are for July interviews.
AFRICA 36500 (Last month 34150)
Except:
Egypt:27100 (Last month 24675)
Ethiopia: Matches AF (Last month 30000)
ASIA – 6850 (Last month 5950)
Except:
Nepal:6475
EUROPE – 35700 (Last month 34125)
OCEANIA – 1250 (Last month 1175)
SOUTH AMERICA, and the CARIBBEAN – 1175 (Last month 1075)
May 12, 2015 at 00:55
What do you think about EU40000+ ? Good chance, not very good chance ?
May 12, 2015 at 14:03
Hard to say – we just have to wait and see….
May 12, 2015 at 01:03
Hi Brit do you think 2016AF53xxx is Higher than 2015AF53xxx?
May 12, 2015 at 01:33
Otherwise, the low DV2016 selectees number is a good/bad thing on the VBs?
May 12, 2015 at 14:03
No – there have been no significant changes this year, but we need to wait to see the data.
May 12, 2015 at 01:04
It means no chance to Nepalese above 6475?????
May 12, 2015 at 14:02
No – there could be additional numbers added next month
May 12, 2015 at 01:21
case no for Nepal is too low. is it final DV cut off number for Nepal or is there still any chance for dv case no upto 6550.
May 12, 2015 at 14:01
I think they will increase the number again next month.
May 12, 2015 at 15:48
Thank you Simoni , Now all i can do is only hope and wish they will increase number
May 12, 2015 at 01:49
AF602xx what do you think ? Any hope?
May 12, 2015 at 02:00
Hi Brit, is it possible for KCC to put out new VB in August for September interview? A friend of mine told me it was done last year.
May 12, 2015 at 13:58
It was not done last year. No.
May 12, 2015 at 02:04
Hi Brit, Based on my novice calculations am i right in saying AF max will be around AF54xxx-55xxx?
May 12, 2015 at 13:58
Could be right…
May 12, 2015 at 02:08
Britsimon honestly I must confess you are such a kind, patient, humble, hardworking, self control, Man. Responding to our post modestly even though some are annoying,
Only God can pay you for all that you are during for his people.
My own prayers is that God will allowed you to see Sofia’ grand Children. THANK YOU
May 12, 2015 at 13:56
Lovely thought – thank you
May 12, 2015 at 02:13
Dear Brit,
Now that we know there were 91K selectees, how rapidly do you think the AF CN’s will move? In other words, will AF CN’s in DV-2016 move at the same pace as DV-2015 and DV-2014? My CN is AF35XXX and I’m trying to gauge when I would be current.
May 12, 2015 at 13:56
Summer 2016
May 12, 2015 at 02:44
Hi,
I am trying to understand why the backlog is affecting the progression of the VBs. I am wondering are they assuming that all the ready cases will go through with their interviews? Shouldn’t we assume that roughly 60 to 70% of them will be successful?
May 12, 2015 at 05:59
The backlog take some visa slots.
May 12, 2015 at 02:57
Hello Sir, Can VB get a jump of 16000 next month. How can one know the total number of VISA that have been issued so far.
May 12, 2015 at 05:58
16000 us very unlikely in one month. AF is around 9500 issued.
May 12, 2015 at 03:04
Hi Simon,
Finally current for July. Almost missed out because of that Nepal cut off. Now when can I expect 2nl letter and interview? I checked the CEAC status of my case number and it says NVC. Is that normal? IS it supposed to change to something else when 2nd letter are mailed? Just trying to calm my nerve?
Thanks in Advance
Peter
May 12, 2015 at 05:57
It will only change when the 2nl goes out which could be two weeks time
May 12, 2015 at 04:02
Simon,
do you think eu39600 has any chances, very slim or none?
May 12, 2015 at 05:55
Still a chance…
May 12, 2015 at 10:59
Thank you!
Do you think only 1 next VB will show increase for EU CNs as last year, or both VBs can show increase?
May 12, 2015 at 12:42
I am hoping they are airing on the side of caution with this VB somewhat and that we will now see a big VB (+4k) in June and maybe 500-1k in July depending on whats left.
May 12, 2015 at 13:33
Both could…
May 12, 2015 at 04:17
Hi Brit!
I won the DV260, unfortunately i made a mistake on my child’s birth date when filling the dv form past october, will that be fatal on my child’s visa? Thanks for responding 🙂
May 12, 2015 at 05:55
No, just fix it on the DS260
May 12, 2015 at 04:46
I feel almost embarrassed to ask BritSimon about OC because so many selectees are in shock. I won last year (2014) but had a high number and missed out. I was lucky enough to win again 2015 with a lower CN but now with only 2 months to go I fear it’s slipping away again. I am OC15xx (on the higher side of 50). Do you think I’m still in with a chance?
May 12, 2015 at 05:43
Oh wow. If I had to guess I would say you will miss out again! I hope I’m wrong.
May 12, 2015 at 04:47
Hello Brit
First of all many thanks for your answers. You are a very nice, patient, and helpful person. God bless you.
I am from Iran with the case number of AS80XX. Also, I am student (F-1) in the US, and want to apply for AoS. You introduced me the helpful forum (Sm1smom) last time, but she did not involve herself with CN’s and number analysis. So, please answer my questions:
1-I want to take advantage of early filing, and it takes two weeks to complete my medical exams. Is it good idea to do it next week? This way, I will be ready and can file my documents as soon as my CN becomes current.
2-The same way, Is it safe to pay DV fee now or it would be risky?(It takes three weeks to be done.)
3- Is it probable Iran hits the cut off?
Thank you again and again.
May 12, 2015 at 05:42
1 yes do that.
1 yes.
3 no.
May 12, 2015 at 04:54
Thanks Brit for the hard work. For Egypt, do you expect it to add 1000 next month, my number is AF280xx, any chances?
May 12, 2015 at 05:41
Hopefully you will be ok.
May 12, 2015 at 04:57
Can they reach my cn (745x) inn next vb? Only one vb remaining for Nepal, right? And to hit the maximum limit of 3500 from Nepal, kcc need to approach 7500. What are your thoughts?
Thank you.
May 12, 2015 at 05:41
Now they have introduced the limit they may spread the Nepal cases over the next two VBs
May 12, 2015 at 05:05
Oh my God Egypt My case number is 2728x Is that mean August interview ? Or do you think that they will not add 200 for next month
May 12, 2015 at 05:39
You should be fine for August.
May 12, 2015 at 05:12
Roméo
What do you think for m’y cn AF492**
May 12, 2015 at 05:39
Now we have two years running you need to quote your number as 2015af1234
May 12, 2015 at 17:25
Could you explain it further? Do you mean of the 4000 visas for the last two monthes his number ranked 12xx? What about my 44xxx number.
May 12, 2015 at 19:28
Numbers are different by region and year….
May 12, 2015 at 05:50
BritSimon
Once again thanks much for your wonderful work. I am starting to worry about my CN AF201550XXX. I understand your theory you put it here before about what is the safe number for each region as per hole theory. Considering this July bulletin speed, we remains with only August and September, kind confusing how will be possible to get to 50XXX with the speed. Perhaps KCC has it own formula this year, which is against our/yours. Anyway, for higher CN for AF 2015 which their number are considering to be safe, I think they should make a preparation in advance and once their 2NL arrived, they should make no mistake on docs.
May 12, 2015 at 13:54
Things are looking nervouse for even high 50’s I know. Let’s wait and see what happens. Fingers crossed.
May 12, 2015 at 06:04
Hello britsimon,so now I’m lost I don’t kno what know what kcc is really up to,but iv lost lots of hope,well lemme ask you this questions:
1.my son is twenty this may 16 would it affect his eligibility by wen we go for interview this dv 2015?
2.my cn is 2015af4046* will I ever go current with this slow place ? And when? Bcuz kcc still on 36700 for AF in more nervous and heartbroken and scared they wont reach 4046* or above which Il go current..this has already shattered my son and I dream of living in the usa
May 12, 2015 at 13:07
1. No that won’t be an issue.
2. You are VERY safe.
May 12, 2015 at 06:06
I am wondering if they are not going to give interview more than for example for EU40xxx why do they give hope and play with people’s lifes? They should not assign case number if they are not going to call for an interview. Am I wrong???
May 12, 2015 at 13:11
Well for some reason they increased the selectee dramatically in DV2014 (140K), and then again in DV2015 (125K). Their increase ensures they don’t underfill the year (i.e. waste spaces). They cannot predict how many don’t proceed, so they will always select more than the 50000, but the question is how many more should they select.
However they cause the issues you describe. In DV2016 they reduced the selectees to 91K. So – that seems a more careful approach…
May 12, 2015 at 13:41
This is not fair 🙁 thank you for the explanation 😉
May 12, 2015 at 17:28
Did they increase from 84k to 91k for 2016?
May 12, 2015 at 19:27
Yes – 91563
May 12, 2015 at 06:08
Hi,awwww,i just feel streesed up cz my CN is AF201547XXX,should i continue hoping for the best, omg.
May 12, 2015 at 13:12
Good luck
May 12, 2015 at 06:24
So you think that Egypt will max out and stop in August or there will be September interview for Egypt
And can you think kcc will add 2000 for Egypt next Vb.
Your answer is highly appreciated .
May 12, 2015 at 13:14
I have always thought Egypt would max out before 30000. So – I expect the final number next month – but let us wait and see!
May 12, 2015 at 06:33
Hi britsimon
Except Nepal 6475. What does it mean sir? Only one vb may remaining aas your predict.in this situation what will be the cutt off CN for Nepal? Cn as696* is this cn safe till now?
Hope you answer this
Thanku
May 12, 2015 at 13:52
I think Nepal will increase again next month. I hope you get a chance – good luck!
May 12, 2015 at 06:35
Sorry,i meant ,is there any chance for CN AF201647XXX? Please
May 12, 2015 at 06:50
hi mr. britsimon
1- my c.n af53k
2- whats the highest respond rate that make my cn go current. and i want to know what will happend with 90 % respond rate
thanks
May 12, 2015 at 13:51
You just have to wait and see. For the what if – you can do that as well as I can…
May 12, 2015 at 07:07
do you think AF55xxx is 100% safe
May 12, 2015 at 13:50
Hard to say 100% safe now…. I’ll be working on final numbers in the coming days.
May 12, 2015 at 07:32
mr BritSimon my nbr is af593xx do i have any chance to be current?? please answer.
May 12, 2015 at 13:48
You can only wait and see…
May 12, 2015 at 07:32
Hi Brit,
At the rate things are going, or with all these publications is almost sure AF201566XXX has no now?
May 12, 2015 at 13:47
That is looking very risky now.
May 12, 2015 at 08:04
OK – I am obviously the numbers will end at AF40000
May 12, 2015 at 13:46
I don’t agree.
May 12, 2015 at 08:17
Well I assume now, that having a CN like EU 40xxx, gives me very little chance of going for an interview this Fiscal year. Any thoughts on this BritSimon? Good luck to the more fortunate ones!
May 12, 2015 at 13:46
You might squeeze in. Good luck!
May 12, 2015 at 14:08
Thanks BritSimon! That`s my hope, that I`ll somehow squeeze in … I`m in the middle part of EU40xxx so keeping my fingers crossed.
May 12, 2015 at 14:11
Good luck!
May 12, 2015 at 08:52
Hey brit if they have already issues AF VISAS AT 9k meaning still around 12 k visas for Af remaining what will happen coz the procesing case numbers for AF IS VERY LOW
May 12, 2015 at 13:44
Don’t forget there are 5 months of processing left and they are issuing around 2000 for AF each month.
May 12, 2015 at 09:36
no hope 4 nepalese now?????????? is it
May 12, 2015 at 13:41
The Nepal number will increase again next month
May 12, 2015 at 09:49
Hello,
Do you think I’ll be current for August with 76XX from Asia?:)
May 12, 2015 at 13:40
Yes
May 12, 2015 at 10:10
Hello BritSimon,
Kindly advise me about AS112XX , still possible with good chance ?
Regards
May 12, 2015 at 13:40
Still possible… we can only wait and see.
May 12, 2015 at 10:32
Hello
so if the Nepal VB doesn’t get limited until the last month.
the VB Jump doesn’t happen in August, but would it at least be added on to the final VB in July. Along with whatever’s left of the Iranian cases for the rest of Asia? Kind of like a double jump in the last month?
because if there are no VB jumps, at this point, even with Iranian cases…….the Visa Bulletin for Asia won’t even reach 10 000 and that just seems extroardinarily low and i just can’t imagine that
what do you think?
May 12, 2015 at 10:34
I mean like, would a VB jump happen in the last month, along with “jump” with the Iranian cases? it seems the main factor influencing the VB in Asia is not only “iran AP” anymore? ami right?
May 12, 2015 at 13:36
No you don’t seem to understand the Iranian AP point. Please search the site as I have explained it well before.
May 12, 2015 at 14:19
I do understand and i have read your iranian posts in the past and i get it……….i guess what throws me off is the Nepal jump which was about 3500 last year. and perhaps i don’t understand that part of it………….im looking at it in kind of a simplistic way………if that jump doesn’t happen…..then that’s 2000 to 3000 CNs gone…..which i guess is not a rational way of looking at it.
but ifyou would be so kind. to explain to me……….when you said the VB will jump as needed no matter what Nepal does………what do u mean by that………you’re trying to say that Nepal has no bearing on the final VB in Asia? i know you’ve said it before………..but now with the terrible Earthquake in Nepal………does that statement still hold true?
thanks for your opinion
May 12, 2015 at 13:02
With Nepal limited AS can jump as needed. Now the question is – what is needed – and that is to do with Iranian AP.
May 12, 2015 at 10:37
hi brit my case number is about 45xxx it is sure that i can have visa because they says 55000 availible …
May 12, 2015 at 13:35
The number you have is within the region only – so your reasoning is wrong. BUT your number has an excellent chance…
May 12, 2015 at 10:52
hello,
thanks alot mr. brit
1. for giving people hope and answering some difficult questions.
2.for real mr. brit with this VB pace how sure will cn 50xxx ever go current?
3. could it go upto 60xxx its been a long wait,please kindly.
thanks for your effort.
May 12, 2015 at 13:34
50XXX stands a good chance, 60 and above is looking risky!
May 12, 2015 at 10:53
plz brit can u answer me do u think in 2 vb it can jump to af 56400????plz brit answer me
May 12, 2015 at 13:33
It is possible – but I cannot be certain that will happen.
May 12, 2015 at 11:10
Hello Brit,
1. Do NVC/KCC have a different formula or method of issuing visas aside the following of VB?
2. AF is supposed to get up to 22000 visas and 50000 for the FY 2015 right?, is that still possible with this low pace in visa bulletins?
3. Can the Next two VBS jump to CN 2015AF6044X?
4. A region becoming current means what??
5. May be NVC has a different formula this year in relation to the issuance of visas.
May 12, 2015 at 13:32
1. Not sure what you mean. Cases progress by number order – that is it.
2. They are releasing the numbers they think make it possible. Their target is a bit less than 22 at 50k. 22 relies on over 50k.
3. Maybe, but it is looking risky now.
4. It means there are enough places for everyone. That is not true, so we won’t see current.
5. No.
May 12, 2015 at 11:14
hi brit
wit this july VB should AF610XX give up honestly???
May 12, 2015 at 13:29
You can’t give up at this point can you. Watch and hope.
May 12, 2015 at 11:26
Please Mr Simon answer me AF602xx any hope?:( 🙁
May 12, 2015 at 13:28
You have to watch and hope.
May 12, 2015 at 11:26
Hi Mr.Simon,
It seems like there are “27.011” selectees from the Europe zone (source : June 15 VB)
My Case Number is EU16XXX.
I sent DS-260 as of May 9.
I got 3 questions;
1. How would you consider my chance of getting the 2NL ?
2. If your answer is positive, possibly when ?
3. Will the KCC contact me before sending the 2NL ? (For any corrections, aditional info requirements etc.)
Best Regards
May 12, 2015 at 13:28
1. 100%
2. I’m not sure yet – but early 2016 probably
3. No.
May 12, 2015 at 16:45
Thank you very much Mr.Simon.
By the way, I have a follow up question if you don’t mind.
I am now working but as of October planning to get retired.
Does this affect my case ? Should I inform KCC if this happens ?
Thank you.
May 12, 2015 at 19:08
IT doesn’t really affect your case – but just be aware that being retired in the USA might be more expensive than your home country.
May 12, 2015 at 11:53
I’m sure the August bulletin for AF will slowly go to 38000 and September 40000 with this low rate,IV lost hope
May 12, 2015 at 13:27
I don’t agree.
May 12, 2015 at 12:04
mr simon my case number af52xxx dv2015
May 12, 2015 at 13:26
OK – fingers crossed for you…
May 12, 2015 at 12:11
Hi i am from Sri Lanka . CN 2015AS85XX , can I expect interview in August?
May 12, 2015 at 13:26
That is possible, yes
May 12, 2015 at 12:30
Hi Brit,
If this is not the final cut off for Nepal, when do u think Nepal will max out, and at what CN?
May 12, 2015 at 13:25
Because of the earthquake the embassy seem to be operating on smaller capacity. So – it might take two increases for Nepal and I still see the final around 75XX
May 12, 2015 at 14:28
If so, that means Nepal is not going to max out until Sept. since if KCC decides to slow down Nepal’s interviews…which indicates ROA is not going to make any big jump even with just 2 vb left right?
May 12, 2015 at 15:03
You are adding 2+2 and coming up with 5. Nepal and ROA are now separated.
May 12, 2015 at 15:16
Can u kindly explain what u meant by they are now separated? I’ve studied a bit abt ur work on how and why Nepal takes out most of ROA’s slots, and based your previous study, ROA’s pace is determined by KDU right? So if Nepal maxes out in the last vb, that would be the chance for ROA to give a boost to a big jump am I not correct?
May 12, 2015 at 19:10
Since they are under different numbers ROA can increase higher regardless of Nepal.
May 12, 2015 at 13:44
how much is the chance nepal not maxing out this year? Because beyond 8000 there are hardly any cases in nepal, is this possible?
May 12, 2015 at 14:08
Nepal won’t go above 8000 now…. Nepal will max out before that.
May 12, 2015 at 12:51
hi simon.
my cn :2015AF626××
have real chance ??
if have chance in which month expect ?
May 12, 2015 at 13:23
Only a small chance now. You will find out in July.