It’s been a while since I discussed quotas, and there has been a lot of confusion and disinformation about quotas just over the last few days so I thought I would recap some important points about the global and regional quotas.
First, it is important to understand that most aspects of the DV process are determined by laws. These laws don’t change rapidly – so the laws have to be written in language that allows the government to run the process. So – for example, the regional “split” of the global quota is not published as a set of numbers to be updated each year, but rather is described in legal wording, referring to datapoints that can be found.
OK, so let’s discuss a few facts.
The original allocation for the DV lottery is 55,000 visas (Green Cards) annually. One person, one visa. Derivatives count toward that number (so a winner with a spouse and one child would need 3 visas).
Since 1999, the NACARA program has been allocated 5,000 of the 55,000 visas annually. That reduces the visas available to the DV program to to 50,000 visas. However, the Nacara program is not using all the visas allocated annually, and since some years since 1999 have exceeded the 50,000 number, it seems likely that DV has been allowed to use some of the 5,000 in some years. This does not happen every year, and not since DV-2014, but it has happened 4 times in the last fourteen years.
Countries are not given an allocation of visas. No country. None. The visas are allocated by region, and selectees are given a chance for interview in case number order, with some per country exceptions. There is a limit of 7% of the global allocation (so 3500) that cannot be exceeded by any one country. That limit has been treated as 7% of 55,000 in past years – so that may be the way the limit is enforced.
The global allocation of visas is distributed among the regions in a way to promote diversity. The rules are described in the Immigration and Nationality Act – section 203(c). So – to interpret the rules you have to determine the per country populations. You can research the populations in the CIA world factbook. You also have to know which countries or regions are high and low admission. You can research that in the immigration yearbooks. Now – if you have the stamina and interest, feel free to go and interpret the rule, check the populations and immigration statistics and come up with the quota for any year you like. Thankfully, a forum user DV4Roger did the legwork and has produced percentage quotas for a number of recent years, as well as DV2018 and DV2019.
The quotas change from year to year due to population changes, but also based on countries eligible to participate in the lottery. DV4Roger has factored that into the calculations. I consider the calculated numbers to be accurate (as far as we can know). So – here they are:
As you can see, these are expressed as percentages. The percentages show the “split” between the regions based on the total number of visas available/issed. So – at 50,000, EU for instance would have a total quota of 18,288 in DV2018. For each 1000 more than 50,000 (or less) that number will increase (or decrease) by 366 visas. That is the “quota”.
Now – what does the quota mean. It is the amount of visas each region should get, relative to the other regions. The number does not HAVE TO be reached, and in some circumstances, can be exceeded (more on that later). However, the quotas are a good indicator of what will happen in any given year. They also show the impact of countries being included or excluded from the eligible countries.
So – based on the number of visas issued in each year (the global total), it is interesting to see what have been the quota amounts, and how those numbers have been met, or not met, or even exceeded. So – here are the quotas after the percentage has been applied to the actuals for each year.
The actuals come from the official numbers published here (which include AOS cases).
Now – let’s then compare to the per region totals that were actually given to see how often the numbers are above or below the quotas.
The numbers in red show the times when the quotas were exceeded. As you can see, it can happen in any region and has happened in at least one region per year.
Why does this happen?
Well there are several answers. The first is that the law allows some redistribution of unused visas. So for instance, in DV2017, AF region went current (all cases could be interviewed) but even with that it was obvious that there would be a surplus of AF region visas compared to the quota (and to a lesser degree, Asia too). So – those surplus visas were distributed and EU and SA region were able to benefit. The same thing happened in DV2015 although that was somewhat bizarre because there were many AF selectees left not current at the end of the year. Neverthless, the principle can be seen in practice.
As well as the redistribution, I think the old systems made it difficult to enforce the quotas. The DS260 was introduced in DV2015, prior to that there was a paper based system. Other improvements have been made and we saw DV2017 had very tight adherence to the global quota. Late approved AP cases and late AOS cases were left without visas last year – and the issued number was 24 visas under the 50,000. That is very hard to do considering the births, marriages, refusals and so on.
Then lastly there is the NACARA curveball. I have looked up immigration numbers through the NACARA program and found they are not using anything like the 5,000 allocation. So – there is some “reason” to believe DV can grab those back – BUT last year that did not happen, and as I mentioned it has not happened that often. I should also point out that DV4Roger recently discussed his belief that DV-2018 will see a global quota based on 55,000. I am ambivalent about that – partly because the VB pace does not seem to support that theory – but as the next VBs are revealed, we will see.
So bringing this back to reality. Could DV-2018 see some regions exceed the quotas? Yes it is possible. If the travel ban stays in force, AS region is unlikely to need all it’s quota. Unless issuance speed increases, AF region may not reach its quota. NACARA visas may be usable this year – there is no way to know if any of these factors will work out this year. So – although many people think they have the mathematical certainties nailed, I can say from experience that “WAIT and SEE” is still the best approach. We really don’t know what the last VBs will bring until we see them.
I hope that helps. There are still some that will not understand the whole concept – there is nothing I can do for those people. Some people will still believe in fairies.
May 4, 2018 at 23:58
During DV lotter period ( after new DS260 system ) which year you think was best ? I think DV2016 was nice
May 5, 2018 at 00:07
DV2016 and DV2017 were “nice” because they were underselected. Much easier in those years!
May 5, 2018 at 00:23
I have,a question Sir,when petitioning for a kid less than 21yrs do you need form i-130?or is it just for the spouse?
May 5, 2018 at 00:34
I only answer DV lottery questions.
May 5, 2018 at 00:31
Oh sound great, SA could get around 3000 visas, but I Think that reallity will be 1700.
May 5, 2018 at 00:34
How on earth did you get 3000. The quota is about 3 PERCENT!
May 5, 2018 at 10:52
Yes, yes sorry I made mistake, excuse me 3.03 % over available visas
May 5, 2018 at 01:28
When you say “…So bringing this back to reality. Could DV-2018 see some regions exceed the quotas? Yes it is possible. If the travel ban stays in force, AS region is unlikely to need all it’s quota…”
Does that mean there’s a chance it could go current?
May 5, 2018 at 02:11
“It” meaning Asia – yes.
May 5, 2018 at 08:04
If that happens, it would be strange to see Asia go currently while others don’t (according to your previous articles)
I guess we’ll see. Thank you so much.
May 5, 2018 at 14:13
THat has happened before – so it’s not that strange at all.
May 5, 2018 at 03:41
What about EU?
May 5, 2018 at 03:45
What is your question?
May 5, 2018 at 05:48
Any hope for the highest CN, more than 30k?
May 5, 2018 at 05:52
Please read the article.
May 5, 2018 at 04:34
Im from Israel, My number is 2018AS127XX
What are my chances of being invited to the interview?
May 5, 2018 at 05:03
Wait and see.
May 5, 2018 at 05:58
Where can we get the stats in terms of usage of the NACARA visas this year or last years?
May 5, 2018 at 14:10
In the yearbook – link above.
May 5, 2018 at 08:59
Brit Thanks for your work. With out you we were in the darK.
Is impossible to know the final numbers because all variables.
Thanks for spent your own time with us.
Lets wait and see ?
May 5, 2018 at 11:20
from this article
can we see increase VB for egypt ?
do egypt will take full quota (3500) or it may be decrease?
May 5, 2018 at 11:49
Hello Simon. It’s Ernest from Cameroon. I appreciate you for taking off your time for us. I am number 2018AF44,*** what are my chances to be called up for interview since the VB if up dating in a very slow rate. Because if VB is updating only by 3500 per month then I don’t see my number to be considered in the next three months. Sir pleas kindly clearify me on this aspect. Thanks.
May 5, 2018 at 14:19
I don’t know – wait and see.
May 5, 2018 at 14:17
Wait and see!!!!!
May 5, 2018 at 11:57
Someone want to summarize if that gives new hopes for EU?
May 5, 2018 at 13:50
It could. Asia COULD go current and that COULD mean a xxxx number of remaining visas are distributed to create additional EU and AF slots. I personally think they would do that if they certainly know that the ban will not be lifted anymore. At the moment the total number of issued visas in AS is very low.
May 5, 2018 at 14:21
Why don’t you read it??? It is not about “new hope”. It is an explanation about quotas and information about how often and why quotas are sometimes exceeded. If you can’t be bothered to read it, the main message is “wait and see”.
May 5, 2018 at 13:01
In your opinion, what are my chances with EU 2915* ?
I believe we will see VB number in EU close to 30s . (Thanks in advance)
May 5, 2018 at 14:22
Seriously? Wait and see……..
May 7, 2018 at 22:38
May 5, 2018 at 13:48
Hello Mr. Simon
I’m so sad reading that EU got such a few visas this year. I would be very grateful if you could answer me. Do I stand a chance with my number EU28XXX until September 2018?
May 5, 2018 at 14:24
If you have read the article you would have read – wait and see.
May 5, 2018 at 14:52
it’s really sad that most people don’t read and jump to ask questions that were already answered. Lack of patience is very bad. it’s frustrating, but there’s nothing Brit can do. Please appreciate his efforts and “WAIT AND SEE”
May 5, 2018 at 15:40
Hi brit ,nice article as always but I have a question, if I understand you, u did make mention of the fact that Africa might not meet its quota so my query is
1 does this now mean they will leave many pple in Africa without an interview and instead redistribute the visas to other region
2- will every one in africa likely to be called for interview and still the quota not met
May 5, 2018 at 16:45
It means we have to wait and see what happens!
May 5, 2018 at 17:11
Is it right that there were not even 100 visas used in the last years or am I missing sth?
May 5, 2018 at 17:13
The last years? Do you mean DV2018????
Yeah, you are missing something. Quite a lot I suspect.
May 5, 2018 at 20:35
Sorry, i meant the NACARA cases. It should have been a reply to the thread above
May 5, 2018 at 21:07
NACARA is spilt into sections. I studied it before (some years back) and I believe it was section 202 that was using the 5000 allocation (the other NACARA had their own visas). So yes – the numbers have been <100 for several years (which makes sense because there was a natural sunsetting to the NACARA visa need.
May 5, 2018 at 17:36
Personnally, I have new hopes (EU 30XXX). If the travel ban is not lifted considering the relatively low speed of visa issuing in Africa if KCC decides to reallocate AS visas it is possible that the main part of theses visas to be for EU (for the first seven months AS has about 2 700 visas issued and the quota is nearly 8000). What was surprising for me is that in the last two overselected years (2014 and 2015) part of the visas from AF quota was also done to EU.
In any case we will have to wait and see. If they want to give more visas for EU the VB have to advance quickly now on. So the next VB is crucial.
May 6, 2018 at 02:33
Thanks for the clarification and spending your valuable time for us.
May 6, 2018 at 06:45
I have learned one thing which is the truth to wait and see,but am strongly convinced with my own analysis that Africa will go current in next VB
May 6, 2018 at 17:18
Your analysis needs some serious reanalysis.
May 6, 2018 at 12:30
Good afternoon dear Brit,
A lot of time people mention here that the low visa issuance in Africa is beneficial for EU. Why this unfairness? I thought AF ‘d get current before its Visas be redistributed to other regions. Isn’t the contrary injustice?
May 6, 2018 at 14:34
Well life isn’t fair sometimes, but we will wait and see what happens. THere is no point about getting upset about something that hasn’t happened yet.
May 6, 2018 at 15:02
Hi Brit. We come back one more time to your blog Eu35k ?
May 6, 2018 at 15:10
Please don’t misunderstand – I still think the high numbers are at risk. Quota redistribution may not even happen, and it it did, we would need to see dramatic changes in the VB immediately. So – don’t get hopes high – just wait and see.
May 6, 2018 at 15:43
Thanks i understand! But it is nice to see another vb
May 6, 2018 at 22:52
Hello Brit, thanks for your job. I got two questions: N1) How many times quota redistribution has happened (I mean, is that EVER happened)), and N2) For example, in 2017 tha Visas issued were 20516, and the quota was exceed. But what was the quota for 2017, I mean on HOW MUCH the quota was “violated”. Thansk in advance for your respond.
May 6, 2018 at 23:00
Your answers are in the article above.
May 7, 2018 at 06:03
Africa might not reach it’s quota because of pace— since this may VB is crucial, which number do u think will be favourable for AF in this may VB?
May 7, 2018 at 14:30
Wait and see.
May 7, 2018 at 06:16
Hi, Mr Brit.
I want to ask a question about the process for the next three months.
For example, they decided to process 1500 cases until the end of FY because of regional quota.
Will they increase the pace appr. 1500 in July and decide for the next VB,
or increase 500 July,500 August,and 500 September.
Again thanks for all your support.
May 7, 2018 at 14:15
this is not question!
May 7, 2018 at 14:17
I think your CN is low of 24k.
May 7, 2018 at 18:05
Hakan hocam, Will they increase…..
It was a question
May 7, 2018 at 20:22
Ok bro. Sorry. Memleket neresi?
My CN 25XXX. And I am very angry. Mr Simon only says wait and see. I already more 1 year wate
May 7, 2018 at 20:50
Being angry won’t help. No one can be certain of the final cutoff. The ONLY sensible thing to do is wait and see.
May 7, 2018 at 21:35
Max.7 days later we will make more accurate estimation. Being angry really won’t help as he said.
Everyone can make own predictions according to CEAC data. My prediction is absolutely higher then 28k for final cut-off.
CN 22XXX (From Antalya/Turkey)
May 7, 2018 at 15:54
They could do either.
May 7, 2018 at 09:46
I was following xarthisius data but there is no data update for last dates,is there any problem?The last one was from 04/28.
May 7, 2018 at 16:21
He can only issue an update when the captchas are solved – so feel free to help!
May 10, 2018 at 04:51
I been trying to help solve more captchas but there are non left to solve, is that mean they all solved or it will be update late on some time soon ?
May 10, 2018 at 14:04
None left to solve for now. More needed later.
May 7, 2018 at 13:03
I made a research on EU.
There was 934 April interview, 199 of which was “backlog”. So we had 735 “new” interview.
So we can see that 735 “new” interview per month is OK for KCC.
I think that 2200 looks like an appropriate pace for coming months.
Thus we can talk about 22500 in July, 24700 in August and 27000 in September.
I know your answer – wait and see )))
May 7, 2018 at 13:52
End of the Road ☹️
May 7, 2018 at 16:31
Yep – W&S.
May 7, 2018 at 14:23
Hi Brit. How much will be VB for EU of July? Your predict please.
May 7, 2018 at 16:32
Wait and see.
May 7, 2018 at 15:05
Why you think AF Region may not reach it quotas is it because of the Pace? if so what you think will be the cut off number?
May 7, 2018 at 15:14
Come on julios! Really?
The last 5 post made by brit the people made the same question like 150 times
Please read a little bit that dont Hurt.
Have a good day my friend
May 7, 2018 at 15:56
Sir let say I get interviewed in August and my case go on Ap and the processes take two months can my visa get issued I knew that you answered me but you said my answer is clear but to be honest I didn’t not understand please please please answer me with yes it gonna be issued or not thank millions of times
May 7, 2018 at 16:35
May 8, 2018 at 07:56
If AS region was bellow a quota (a lot) this year because of the travel ban, can these numbers of extra visas split in all other regions?
May 8, 2018 at 13:52
Did you read the article???
May 8, 2018 at 15:07
hello simon my june estimate 2-4 country (ukraine, uzbekistan and albany Russia) 22k de stoped and Eu all CN. because these 4 countries were 3k with valid and ready files. In fact, in June there is no ukraine’s appointment. ukraine and uzbekhistan have been selected for the last 3 years 4.5k + 4.5k first numbers are shown in the first 20k. that is, until the month of May announced that 18k is 9k, these 2 countries. If DV wants to be fair, it has to give chance in the remaining 20-30 countries. otherwise the dv lotery lifting that Trump in supports will bring greater luck and advantage to other EU countries. 12k visa given in the present 10k is given to 4 countries above which is not fair.
May 8, 2018 at 17:12
Your assumptions are incorrect. In fact, EU has a wide spread of issued visas to a number of countries, not the 2 to 4 you assume. The visa interviews are given by case number. Case numbers are assigned randomly. So – where is it not fair?
May 10, 2018 at 12:17
Uzbekistan and Ukraine booth have casenuumbers beloow 20k. Everyone selected therefore gets a chance to interview and additionally, the selectee counts in these 2 countries are among the highest. That as an answer. Too simons “ how is that not fair” question.
May 10, 2018 at 13:58
…AND entries fro those countries have a lower percentage chance of selection…. you left that bit out.
May 26, 2018 at 14:32
Is that how it works? As I understand it, all applicants from each region have the same chance. You might be from a small country with only like a 1,000 applicants but you are just another ball mixed with let’s say a million balls from Albania, so you have exactly the same chance as being picked. I thought case numbers are assigned in order of “extraction” and that’s why countries with millions of applicants get moslty the lower case numbers (until they are capped). Personally I think it would be more fair if once all people have been selected, then they did another draw to assign random case numbers, especially after this year where they’ve changed their DS260 processing system to prioritize lower case numbers being all processed before higher case numbers (which was happening in previous years). All this has undeniably resulted in most people from countries with less applicants getting royally screwed this year (especially in EU) which wasn’t the case in previous years. For instance, 2015 was a similarly over-selected year for EU and even though it didn’t go current the finish line got a lot closer to it than what this year is going to look like (unless some big miracle happens).
May 26, 2018 at 14:38
Every entry within the region has the same chance of selection. However, if you are from capped countries, you have the chance of being out of the cap – which effectively lowers the chance of entries from that country.
The law controlling the lottery is designed to give preference based on rank order. The changes this year are more closely aligned with that principal.
May 26, 2018 at 15:15
Agreed. Still, I would rather they had a different pool and quota for each country based on population. 😉 There is no denying that with this system the big 5 (and especially the U2) countries are getting more visas per lottery applicant than other countries. I understand it’s a tough thing to manage, and I’m sure the people at KCC are doing their best to be fair. Still, as I said in an another post, no matter what they do at this point it’s just impossible for them to get anywhere close to the maximum 50,000 global visas and it’s likely that in the end we will see around 3,000 visas go unused that could have ended up in EU. I’m not saying AF, because I’m sure they are going to get current by the end even though there is no way they can get to their 21,500 quota. EU could have gotten 22,000 visas if they had released the VB brakes a bit sooner, but not now. At most, I think EU can reasonably issue around 20,500 total visas at this point and only with all embassies going full throttle.
May 26, 2018 at 15:55
There is no predesign built in. If some country, say France, suddenly had 2 million entries, they would be a cutoff country. Indeed that is what happened this year. More entries = more selectees. So – in that way – the present system is fair. But – whether we think it is fair or not, it is the way the law is written.
May 26, 2018 at 16:47
I think it’s as fair as it can be, indeed, and it is a good and positive law and personally very glad it exists in the first place. I was just making a point that unfortunately this year, and because they changed the processing system and kept VB numbers very low, they are going to leave out a lot of people in EU who could have been interviewed, and with probably thousands of global visas left unused by the end of the process. A shame really. 🙁
May 26, 2018 at 18:53
“as fair as it can be”
Every year there is someone with a slightly new perspective on how the lottery wasn’t fair to them, or how they would like to make changes. In reality though, it is what it is.
May 27, 2018 at 08:22
It is what it is, sure. That doesn’t mean they can’t perfect it. This year they changed how they processed the DS260s. Maybe it turned out to be a good idea, maybe not. Personally, I think in Europe’s case it favored a bit too much the Big 5 at the expense of other countries. The fact that lower case numbers are mostly taken by those 5 countries and therefore guaranteed to be issued a card seems a bit tilted to me. In that sense I would rather be in a region like OC or SA. Sure, they might be a bit overselected this year and some people are going to be left out, but no countries are given “preference” because of the way the system is built (let’s be honest, there is no way France or Spain would ever get 2,000,000 applicants). Of course, it’s a matter of perspective. It’s just an interesting debate. Simon, I know you feel for us, you’ve been here… You were in an overselected year, but this year, on top of being overselected, is going to be brutal to a bunch of people in EU. As you pointed out at the beginning of the process, in normal circumstances EU would have been safe up to EU37000… higher case numbers would have known not to expect anything but a miracle. But the fact that right now people above EU25,000 are at serious risk, you must agree this has never been the case before and it’s quite upsetting to a lot of people. I’m just saying that maybe if they knew they were going to change the processing system, they shouldn’t have over-selected Europe by that much. Of course, selectees know that nothing is certain, to keep expectations in check… but looking at past data, noone (yourself included) could have guessed that people over EU25000 would be at risk, and therefore ther’s been a lot of crushed hopes that could have been avoided. That’s all I’m saying. It’s a human process. People hope, people dream, there’s no way around it.
May 27, 2018 at 14:27
Of course I understand the feeling, but you are treating everything like the decisions are made in a “human” way, and with an ability to see the future. The draw was planned and probably drawn on Obamas presidency. There is no way they could have known the political decisions that were about to be made. So – Asia should have been capped. Then Iran and Yemen got banned, and hey presto, high CNs in Asia get a chance. Similarly, other events have happened in past years outside of the US that have changed the lottery outcome. The DS5535 has changed capacity and processing speed. They cannot know the effects of these things, they know that, so they over select. If they don’t overselect then they don’t issue all the visas – which would also crush dreams…
By the way, I now have the 2018 entry numbers and there will be some interesting findings out of that to explain the selectee distribution and derivative growth rate. For instance, Uzbekistan had a derivative rate of 1.71 for the entry, but their derivative rate now is probably nearer 2.7. KCC could not have known that would happen. See the point?
May 27, 2018 at 15:19
Of course I understand it’s very hard for them to make predictions. Interesting what you bring up about Uzbekistan… is it that different from previous years? Still, Uzbekistan hasn’t gotten an inordiante amount of visas compared to previous years. And since they were capped, I don’t think they will even get to 2,000. Interestingly, there is a consistent trend of the U2 countries getting a total of around 4,000-4,100 visas combined, which seems is going to be the case here as well. I think it’s Albania that has sort of offset the numbers (they’ll probably endup with over 3,000) and to some extent Russia and Turkey (about 1,000 more than usual combined). Also, I think it’s worse to get selected and not end up with a visa, than not being selected in the first place, in soul-crushing terms that is… 😉
May 8, 2018 at 18:28
Xharius data 2015 consulate kyiv and tashkent fnish16k 2017 consulate data kyiv 16 k tashkent 19 k finished. 2018 june kyiv no appointments . And tashkent kyiv moscow tirana issued and ready number nearly 3k.
May 8, 2018 at 18:31
Case numbers are assigned randomly. For people not for country i think.
May 9, 2018 at 18:51
May 9, 2018 at 19:55
Hi Mr Brits your friend Patience today went for interview in ACCRA Ghana and by his grace I have been approved. THANK you so, so much!!! and God bless you.
May 9, 2018 at 20:20
May 10, 2018 at 14:14
AFRICA 38,000 Except: Egypt: 19,700
ASIA 10,500 Except: Nepal: 6,325
NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS) 18
and the CARIBBEAN 1,425
May 16, 2018 at 12:50
Thank you for taking time and effort to support all the people with this very very detailed information. It is really very helpful.
I’m selected for DV2018 but my case is EU34xxx so, no illusions for me (I will not ask your very favorite question :))) Instead of this I found some interesting information looking through the links you provided, and especially this one: https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2017AnnualReport/FY17AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf
So here is my question: Do you have explanation why countries like Albania, Armenia, Moldova, Uzbekistan get SOOO many visas every year?
For me this is very strange, but maybe there is something that I’ve missed, and that is why I’m asking.
May 16, 2018 at 15:55
The draw is random. So – if country A has 10 times more entries than country B, country A will get 10 times more selected cases, and therefore get more visas. It’s that simple.
May 18, 2018 at 07:01
BritSimon or anyone (I know BritSimon is busy for his life too besides answering all our questions, so anyone can answer this too),
Would you please explain one more time since I am nervous as I am still a human?
What does it mean when a region will most likely not meet the quota?
May 18, 2018 at 14:20
THat there are not as many visas issued as they could have issued within the quota.
May 18, 2018 at 13:13
Each region is assigned certain quotas to get greencard. Since the travel ban in many countries in Asia, the people who won in those countries are not eligible to move on to further steps, hence the unmet quota in Asia. What he was trying to say is that if the ban is still remain, those quota might be distributed to other regions.
May 24, 2018 at 23:35
Hi Brit! Very interesting article. It seems to me that, from the data you provide, there is always some degree of redistribution going on. Especially between Africa and Europe. Usually, everytime one falls short, the other gets some extra quota, most times roughly the same amount the “under-quota” region missed. I know there are no set rules or obligations, but unless I’m missing something here, they always redistribute to some extent. Considering the pace at which Africa is moving this year, and even though it might go current, could you “guestimate” how many visas Africa may end up getting? I’m guessing a maximum of around 20,000, but you’re the expert here.
May 24, 2018 at 23:47
That is hard/impossible to guess.
Progress in AF region has been slow.
Then, at the last VB, a “big jump” happened (so theoretically that could increase pace of issuances in AF)
BUT if you look at 2NLs and read messages here, there are many people that have not been scheduled. That already happened for June interviews.
So – there is too much going on to reliably estimate where AF will end.
Then there is uncertainty about redistribution and even capacity in EU.
Really – it’s NUTS trying to pretend we *know* what is about to happen. We don’t!
May 25, 2018 at 08:19
Yes, I can see that. You raise an interesting point about EU embassy capacity… it’s obvious that some embassies can have capacity issues (Albania, Russia, Turkey…) but most countries wouldn’t have any problems in terms of capacity. Even if they raised the VB these last couple of months, there is a limit as to how many visas they can issue because the Big countries can pretty much “only” give out around 300 each/month. So, even if let’s say they gave an extra quota of 2,500 visas for EU, it would be hard to assign them all even if EU went current!
May 25, 2018 at 08:34
In fact, even if ALL regions went current by August (I know they won’t), I think that there would still be no way they would ever hit the maximum 50,000 global number at this point precisely because of embassy capacity and security checks in AF and AS. So, I don’t understand why they are being still so cautious with EU…
June 2, 2018 at 22:49
Hey Brit! Quick question: what happened in 2012? I mean why was the number of total issued visas so low? Also, am I right in assuming that over-selected years are the ones that get close (or above) the global 50,000 mark? I guess those were two quick questions… 😉
June 3, 2018 at 01:02
2012 had a monumental screwup in the draw process – they actually re-drew (from existing entries). Because many had checked their result from the 1st draw, some never found they were actually winners in the re-draw. So – in the following months they struggled to give the visas away.
2014 and 2015 were over selected. 2015 did not reach the quota, because they cutoff AF too early. They also favored EU that year.
June 3, 2018 at 09:00
Thanks for the quick answers! So, over-selected years get very close to quota (above 49,000). As you mentioned in the article, in 2015 they probably could have given some more visas to AF, but they probably under-estimated embassy capacity. We’ll see what happens in AF this year, but I think the way they are processing the DS260s is going to severely affect the number of visas issued in the region because it simply takes longer to do background checks, and therefore schedule interviews for “new” cases in the remaning months. I’d be surprised if AF ends up with even the 19,600 visas from 2015. We’ll wait and see what happens, of course…
June 4, 2018 at 00:44
Hello Britsimon What happens when ones reach the nine (9) Month on AP it Will still be there AP?
June 4, 2018 at 01:38
AP can last any time – but once a the year ends (30 September) the cases in AP still cannot be approved.
June 17, 2018 at 05:07
Where can we see how much AOS cases in DV-2018?
June 17, 2018 at 18:32
We can’t see that. Based on previous years there are about 1000 to 1500 globally.
July 5, 2018 at 17:57
Hello Brit :
according to FY 2018 and 2017 what will happened in 2019 in AS? Can you predict ? 🙂
July 5, 2018 at 18:09
It is too early to predict.
July 5, 2018 at 20:40
please even though I have read a lot of articles about GC I still dont really understand what would happen if they lets say extend quota (Im selectee from the EU region but with number 32xxx). What does it mean? No matter what, whole 2018 GC has to be over at the end of September, right? As I have read, they are very slow giving interviews even for those who has already been called. So, theoretically, if they extend the quota, what exactly does it mean? They keep calling people after September? Or they will just call current and give as many interviews as possible (within the new quota?).
Sorry but I find it very confusing, thanks for help and have a good day.
July 5, 2018 at 21:14
The last VB for DV2018 will be published in the next 10 days. Then we will know the final numbers – so I suggest you wait and see. 2NLs will be sent for September interviews from July 15 to the end of July. That will be all.
July 6, 2018 at 00:11
What do you mean from July 15th to the end of July? How come they sent 2NLS (as I understand notification about interview appointment) in July if lets say my number will be current from September? It means I need to wait until September to actually apply (Im in USA already) so how come they can ask me for interview? I am sorry, but I am confused.
July 6, 2018 at 00:22
To get an accurate answer you need to provide accurate information. 95% of winners are outside the USA – so I answered assuming you were NOT doing AOS.
If you were to get current for September (which is unlikely, based on your number) you could submit your I-485 in July (using early processing).
July 6, 2018 at 00:26
Yeah, I know its unlikely. That’s crazy my lawyer said I need to wait until the actual month to get current. So I would just submit the I-485 and nothing else? Lawyer also told me we have to sent all the papers at the same time (I don’t have any papers ready since I am not expecting to be called).
July 6, 2018 at 04:34
Well it’s a shame you spent money on a lawyer that knows so little, but it’s probably not going to matter anyway.
July 6, 2018 at 04:41
Yes, I already found out and I also know I am almost surely not gonna be called. I was just confused hearing about 2NLS and submitting I-485 in July coz of all information I have. You are right tho, I dont think I have to bother with it now, since I most likely wont need these information regardless. All good Simon and thanks.
September 28, 2018 at 09:13
Hi! I’ve read your FAQ and articles many times but i simply cant understand this:
You said each country within a region has the same % chance of winning. The more entries, the more visas issued per country.
But mathematically/statistically the more entries within a country, the less is your chance at winning, right? I thought being from a country with less applicants would increase my chances as i’m not one of so many applicants…or is there a formula whereas certain countries are favoured?
September 28, 2018 at 14:16
Imagine a region with 3 countries, A B and C.
Country A has 700 entries, B has 200 and C has 100. The chance of selection is 1 in 100 (1%). A would have 7 winners, B would have 2 and C would have 1.
That is simple to understand.
August 28, 2020 at 03:52
What if all the visa’s to my region are issued before my interview date?
What do you think will be the necessary thing to do?
August 28, 2020 at 05:25
Then you would not get a visa. That’s how it works.