Oh man. Someone today talked about the DV process being a rollercoaster ride. It certainly is – and this year more than other years.
Today we saw the VB released for June interviews. So – although there are over 5 full months of interviews left, there are now just 3 VBs left. The progress on todays VB was a “mixed bag” – good news for some, awful news for others.
I am extremely busy at work at the moment, so I cannot do much with the data, but thanks to Xarthisius and the people scraping, we ALL have the CEAC data. Everyone can see and analyze the data for themselves by downloading the latest file from here. To exclude “holes” simply filter out the cases with a status of “none”.
I will make a few brief points on each region though.
In Asia, the number for “rest of Asia” is moving fast. Nepal will continue to see some increases at roughly the same pace we have seen. Nepal cases end around 7000, and the Nepal final number will probably be a little under the that (leaving a few highest cases without interviews). That is a pattern we have seen before. Because of the travel ban, the rest of AS has been allowed to move ahead. If the travel ban stays in place, it is possible for the rest of Asia to go current. However, that would change if the ban is removed. The appeal is being heard by the Supreme Court at the end of April.
For Africa the VB progress was slightly lower than I expected. I honestly don’t know whether the current pace is sufficient to reach the quota. In reality, the enhanced security measures this year and to some extend the travel ban have meant there are a lot of visas remaining before the quota (21600) is met, since there are only about 8000 visas issued at this point. However, The pace of issuances in the latter half of the year is always higher for AF region, especially as AP cases are concluded alongside issuances from normal processing. So – we have to wait and see where the final numbers will fall. I am NOT going to try to predict that number.
Oceania is tracking more or less exactly as expected and is heading for the 1450/1500 final number.
South America had a good month – but there is not much reason to believe pace will increase any faster than the 175 we saw this month. So – that would get us to about 1700 ish.
For Europe there is obviously a big disappointment coming for many people. I was sure we were going to see numbers in the 30’s. I really don’t think that will happen now. We have been used to EU doing very well, and I was hopeful this year would see a good high number. However, I am more and more certain that we are going to see a shockingly low VB number. Why? Well we can look at two things to estimate remaining progress. The month to month pace (based on embassy capacity etc), and the progress toward the quota (18300).
First, the pace. KCC reduced the pace in terms of the number of “real” case numbers since March. The VBs for April, May and now June interviews have only made 1070 to 1200 new real cases current. By the time we take response rate into account that means they are setting interviews for ~600 to ~750 new cases each month (plus another 150 to 200 from “backlog” cases each month.
So how about the quota? From that pace we would only expect to see around 1200 to 1500 visas issued each month (approximately!). However, that will probably get close to the quota even at that pace, because there are 10500 visas issued already leaving about 7500 to 8000 visas left (and 5.5 months of processing). So – the pace seems to suggest that KCC believe they are on track to meet the quota with existing pace (similar to what we saw in the last 3 VBs).
So – at the current density (which remains static until high 30’s) we could see VB increases of around 2500 a month (give or take a couple of hundred). That would get us to about 28000 or even a little less. That could happen. We would need to see increases of more than 3000 to get over 30000 – but there is not much evidence to hint at that increase in pace. So – I think a final number in the high 20’s is very likely. I have been responding “wait and see” to high cases in the 20’s for around a month now. I was hoping the VB today would dispel the fears. It didn’t.
Again – the data is available for all – please feel free to retain your own hope – I cannot be certain what will happen. Feel free to disagree with me and form your own opinion. Really – all we can do is wait and see how this rollercoaster will end. I fully realize the dreams people have based on this lottery. Best of luck to you all for your own cases – but please do show some sensitivity for the many people who want and deserve this opportunity just as much as you do – and perhaps are behind you in the line.
April 12, 2018 at 23:59
Whats the highest case number you heard ?i checked more than 60 winners all are bellow 50000.so this is why visa bulletin is slow because they have enough time to process all cases during the fiscal year.
Comment:i noticed also in your blog that the numbers did not exceed 5000,if you disagree please prove so.
Thanks for your efforts
April 13, 2018 at 00:09
We know exactly what the numbers are – https://dvcharts.xarthisius.xyz/ceacFY18.html
April 13, 2018 at 08:38
Good morning Brit,
I have a serious concern. Brit my brother and his wife got married one month after they played the dv separately. They both played separately without including spouse or children. Luckily my brother’s wife won. My brother was unsuccessful. The good thing is they are married. In filling her ds-260 she included my brother as her spouse. But our biggest concern is that she has three kids by her ex- boyfriend. Before filling the form she informed her ex-boyfriend to include the children, her ex-boyfriend refused. He said that he doesn’t want another man to father his children. To avoid embarrassment she did not include the children. Similarly my brother experienced was the same. His ex-girlfriend and him has three children. He also explained this to her, she also refused and said her children are not going to any step mother. He also filled his ds-260 and did not include his children. What they want me to find out from you is, at their interview, if they are question whether either of them have child or children, what should be their response. If they answer yes will they be allow to explain and will their explanations be guarantee? Please Brit I want you to please help my brother. I am the only person connected to your website. Please advice us in this direction. What you always advice is that all dv players should be truthful while filling in their forms. They should not lie. Will they be allow to file for their children in the future? May be where the both ex- will be reasonable in their thoughts sometimes in the future?
Thanks Brit.
If your response doesn’t clarify our thinking, I will still question you for more clarity..
April 13, 2018 at 09:16
You already know the answer to these questions. Especially if you’ve read this blog before. They got married AFTER registering for the dv lottery so that is fine and can be updated on the ds260. Happened to me and it was not a problem to get my visa approved. HOWEVER they both had children PRIOR to the lottery and willingly provided false information which is ground for disqualification. They basically lied and that will definitely be pointed out if they get an interview. They should have been truthful as you will be asked to swear on the veracity of the information provided and a background check will be run… They know they what they did was wrong and this matter has been addressed more than once here
April 13, 2018 at 14:18
Aivilo is correct.
April 13, 2018 at 14:15
The lies they have told can NEVER be fixed. I would suggest they stop thinking about the lottery win.
https://britsimonsays.com/easiest-way-to-get-disqualified-from-dv-lottery/
April 13, 2018 at 00:59
Hello Simon,
You said that EU might close around 28000. I wish you are right. But,I do not agree. According to the CEAC data by April 10, 10559 visas issued, 1460 AP (most of them will be issued), 4156 Ready (lets say 2000 will be issued considering old cases which did not show up). That means by the end of May (EU18050), approximately 14000 visas will have been issued. If the European quota is 18300, then 4300 visas remains. When the derivatives considered 2000 real cases will fulfill it. There are 3084 “At NVC” cases between EU18050 and EU25000. I think 2000 cases out of 3084 will show up for the interviews. Actually, I am afraid that the final cutoff might be around EU23500. I do not want to upset but the data tells this.
April 13, 2018 at 01:19
Actually I am not setting 28,000 as a target – that was an illustration of the pace if you read it more carefully. However, I have recommended everyone take a look at the data. You have done that and have your calculation. Now we will wait and see.
April 13, 2018 at 02:36
Why the European quota is 18300?
April 13, 2018 at 02:40
It’s a formula set in law.
April 13, 2018 at 02:44
Well, my EU240xx doesn’t seem very promising now…
April 13, 2018 at 06:40
No it isn’t !
April 13, 2018 at 06:04
Statistic says 19k+ it also says every year about 2k visas globally remains without holders. 48737 in 2017, 47897 in more underselected 2015
April 13, 2018 at 12:03
I believe, all the wholes you mentioned are taken into account by Cal. And 18300 is the number of real visas issued set by law. No room for hope here.
April 13, 2018 at 14:07
And I have explained those occurrences. 2016 and 2017 were underselected years. DV2015 was not underselected, but AF region was stopped earlier than it should have been (my prediction was 55000, KCC stopped at 50000 – numbers that year for AF went up to around 90000). Not everyone gets visas. Cutoffs mean some miss out. THat is the reality and WILL happen this year in EU – that is 100% certain.
April 13, 2018 at 05:57
stop making your depressive predictions. Simon is not a INSIDER!!!! and you too! Idiots don’t work in KCC. All people get their visas in EU.
April 13, 2018 at 09:27
Cal’s logic seems reasonable. I don’t see any serious flaws in his/her calculations. And Brit almost confirmed them…
April 13, 2018 at 10:19
you don’t see 50% holes more than in first months? You don’t understand that backlog takes about 20-25% of pace and will be won back in next 3 months? You Don’t see there are only 50% visas issued? You are all see through statistic and notice only negative scenario….and makes people all over the world feel depressed. I’d better never known about this blog!
April 13, 2018 at 10:53
what do you think about at which number EU region will cut off ? Not just here but everyhere , when data is based , EU ends at 28K& 29K and everyone talk about this. If you are against of this idea, can you share with us with which data you make predict in order to see more than 28K& 29K ? my CN is 34XXX and I have zero hope.
April 13, 2018 at 11:27
SquartelMacky
Just Add to their predictions 50% increase of holes and 25% back log which they never take into account. And you will see real figures about 33-35ะ
They count unissued visas, they take 18300 and use it as final number!!! When it was final? in 2015 19095 issued + 2250 ready + 1561 refused!!! Why 18300 is final number when almost 23k should be taken into account….??????
April 13, 2018 at 14:40
It seems like you don’t understand the word “quota” or that the quota changes each year.
April 13, 2018 at 16:13
The EU DV2015 calculated quota was 37.8% – so in the end they exceeded the quota by less than 200 visas. That is pretty accurate control on their part considering the complexity of the process (and that they cannot predict AOS demand very well).
The quota changes based on global population change, rules change and so on. For DV2018 the EU quota is 36.6%. The quota has been reduced – understand now?
April 13, 2018 at 14:25
If you would rather not understand the facts, feel free to stop reading.
April 13, 2018 at 17:05
which country/s will get remain 7000 visas. For instance Russia got only about 700, Countries from E Union have a little demand on it. Ukraine and Uzbekistan don’t take part any more. Remains Russia, Moldova and Turkey. Could you please explain what way 7000 wil not enough for us? Or what country I miss?
April 13, 2018 at 17:22
It’s not based on countries. It’s the whole region. There are over 50 countries in EU region – so you missed a lot!
The June VB was up to 20300, so on top of the 10500 already issued, there will be the visas issued in the remainder of April, May and June. There are 7238 CASES above 20300. Each case includes derivatives so we could assume about 2.25 people per case – meaning there are over 16000 people on those cases. Many of those wouldn’t have responded – but even so it is OBVIOUS that there are not enough visas for everyone. So – the question is how many are left and where the cutoff will occur. What is certain is that there will be a cutoff. You might say that is a pessimistic statement, but really it is very, very obvious.
April 13, 2018 at 17:41
If we have 7k cases and 7k visas/ we have x2.25 derivatives and 0.45? no response. What does that mean? 27k cutoff? and let’s add 4% refused and 4% ready(don’t appear at interview)
April 13, 2018 at 18:14
Well I am not giving a final cutoff – but at least you seem to understand the problem now.
April 13, 2018 at 18:24
in case my previous figures right all I see is the very positive. Derivatives compensate by no response/refused/ready(not appeared on interview) 7ะบ visas=7k cases. Let me know when I again don’t see the problem
April 13, 2018 at 18:32
Again.
The issued count today (10500+ up to April 10th) doesn’t include all of April issuances, nor May, nor June.
April 13, 2018 at 18:58
so 4156 which is ready minus 5% which is (non appeared on interview) lets say 3950 is the number which makes a problem right?
April 13, 2018 at 19:13
But the ready cases are ONLY below 18050. It seems like you are really struggling with this – so let me try one last time to clarify.
The numbers we have to consider are the following.
1. The 10500 already issued.
2. The number of visas that will be issued from cases currently in AP status (there are currently 1460 of those).
3. The number of visas that will be issued from the 4156 ready cases
4. The number of visas that will be issued from the June interviews.
Make some assumptions for 2, 3 and 4, add 1 to 4 together and you will have a number. If we assume the quota is firm at 18300 – subtract your number from 18300. If you think the quota will be exceeded, you can use a higher number. The number you have left is the number of visas available for the last three months.
April 13, 2018 at 19:39
Old statistic says the same in the totals. the number closer to 22ะบ (19095 vs 4438 in 2015)(19914 vs 3368 in 2017) where remain sum of AP, Refused, and ready is about 3500-4500 as I got you the problem number. In 2018 we will see 18300 vs AP+Refused+Ready=4500? What way does it link with VB pace? If we don’t think about pace at all things looks like very nice. Explain me one last time when I am wrong again
April 13, 2018 at 20:17
I can’t keep explaining the same thing over and over again. I don’t think it “looks like very nice”. I guess you will understand more in the coming months.
April 14, 2018 at 07:57
The only thing I want to say, we shouldn’t use 18300 as final number to predict final cutoff. We must include to it remain AP, Refused and Ready(this number is about 3k). It’s impossible to issue 18300 visas with zeros in that columns. So final will be about 21500 that means no depressive 23-25k final cutoff.
April 14, 2018 at 14:29
What the heck are you talking about???
The 18300 is the quota for issued visas. Cases in AP and ready as of September 30th do not get visas. Really – you have some fundamental confusion – and I have no idea what it is.
April 14, 2018 at 08:11
and say another one fact. It took KCC 3,5 months to Issue 4500 visas from 1 oct to 13 jan with double density and VB pace pass through for 10k. So Im sure it will take 3 months to issue 4500 visas with doubled VB pace. And no other scenario exist.
April 14, 2018 at 14:31
Another non point.
April 14, 2018 at 16:12
18300 is a quota, yes. How many cases do you need process to issue 18300 visas? exactly 18300 cases? or more???? If more? Just say! May be you will need make a pace to VB to issue this amount? 18300 Simon PLUS 10% refused, Simon PLUS ready Simon and so on! 18300 + 3500!!!!
April 14, 2018 at 16:34
Obviously you need more! I ***obviously*** know that. So what is your point?
April 14, 2018 at 16:16
“Cases in AP and ready as of September 30th do not get visas. ” !!!!!!THEY NEED VB PACE!!!!!!!!!To remain!!!!!!
April 14, 2018 at 16:40
Has anyone suggested there is no more movement for the rest of the year – NO! So what the heck are you talking about???
April 14, 2018 at 16:48
Depressive predictions and calculations miss so many things to be true. 3500 of remain cases after closing the year is one of them. Others are in possible more quota and so on…..
April 14, 2018 at 18:04
OK. I really have no idea why you are confused – I have tried to explain. But anyway – best of luck.
April 13, 2018 at 14:03
You’re entitled to your opinion – even when incorrect.
April 13, 2018 at 08:02
according to your research.come in line 25xxx?
April 14, 2018 at 22:16
Seems like you did not take into account of no responses. As per the data, 40% of real cases did not even submit their DS260. There are 3084 “At NVC” cases between EU18050 and EU25000. Not all “At NVC” cases are going to be “Ready”. In this case, submitted DS260 cases will be around 1850 which will be 4163 with derivatives. Lets say all of them are approved total issued visas will be 18163 without refuse, AP, Ready cases between 18050 and 25000.
April 16, 2018 at 11:22
2000 out of 3000 is 66% which could be a little bit high, more like 1800, also those 1460 AP will not be approved straight away, so you cant just add them to approved, in the end provably 1400 will stay in AP after september. I also see that you dont take into account refused and new AP cases.. I reckon that up to EU27000 there is a good chance that those numbers will make it. Currently there is 4100 Ready visas so that means around 2000 cases are ready, now if out of those 2000 ready cases lets say 1400 respond and come to the interview it means around 1400*0.9(ap+refused)*2(derivatives)= ~~~AROUND 10500 issued + 2500new visas issued=13000 total visas withing these EU18050. Now from 18050 to 20300 there could be around 1000 real cases(my guess not sure tho) * 0.65 respond rate *2(derivatives)*0.9(refused +AP) meaning around 1100 visas should be issued between 18050 and 20300 which brings us to ~14100 total issued visas within 20300. And finally between 20300 and 27000 there is ~2900 cases so same logic 2900*0.65(respond)*0.9(refused+AP)*2 = around ~~~3500 give or take. add that number to 14100 and you get 17600 out of 18300 up until EU27000 and give or take ~200-300 AP aprroved. I hope this helps but like Simon said wait and see, this is just my math could be wrong.. Good luck to us!
April 13, 2018 at 01:49
Hello Brit,
I am really impatient about the VB now.
* In one of your comments you mentioned that there are no cases above 7000 from Nepal. So my case number being at the edge of 7000, what are the chances of getting an interview.
* Also, all the cases in Nepal are below 7000, do you think it is about to cross the 3500 limit, and that’s why the VB is going slow?
Please don’t answer “wait and see ” for this one.
April 13, 2018 at 02:42
If you are from Nepal and your case number is one of the highest, then you are at risk.
The VB is not going slow – they are spreading the processing out over the full year – just like every year.
April 13, 2018 at 02:54
Total number of visas issued till February for Nepal were 1359, with 285 visas being the highest issued yet. Lets be prudent and assume that US embassy Nepal issues 300 visas per month for all the remaining months i.e. 300*7=2100, bringing the total number of visa issued for the whole year to 3459 (1359+2100). So, the answer to your question is NO, Nepal wont be running out of visas.
Again, the pace of VB has shown us that case number for Nepal has been increasing between 550-750 cases every month. Lets be conservative and assume that it will increase at a pace of 500 cases per month from this point on. i.e. 500*3=1500, since the VB for June has Nepal at 5900, it is likely that it will reach 7400 (5900+1500). YOU HAVE TO UNDERSTAND THAT NO ONE CAN PREDICT THESE NUMBERS FOR A FACT.
I request you to make your own judgement.
April 13, 2018 at 03:24
Again. ALL the Nepal cases are concentrated under 7000. There are slightly more Nepalese selectees this year than last year, and last year had a final cutoff before all selectees were interviewed. So – that seems likely to repeat.
April 13, 2018 at 03:42
Dear ganezbhoosal, thanks for the optimistic comment, seems like you have been doing some research, would like to know what are your predictions. Are you one of the selectees? my CN is around AS68.. with three months remaining its pretty scary at this point for us.
April 13, 2018 at 13:18
Yes, I am one of the selectees and have been approved the visa this march. My predictions are same as my research. In my opinion next month’s Vb will tell us exactly what we can expect……… if it increases by more than 500 then it will be safe to assume everyone around 7000 line will be safe.
I just wish you all get a chance for your interview.
April 13, 2018 at 04:04
Seems positive ..halka man khusi huncha esto comment dekhda .Mero ni case number 65** aba dar lairaxa k huncha vanera .sathi haru ko k cha bhanai Kati hola cut off. Mero cn safe hola ki nahola
April 13, 2018 at 13:19
Hajurko palo ta dhukkai aauxa subash jii, next month or august maa ta sure. Just be prepared with all the docs necessary.
April 14, 2018 at 03:56
Thanku sir
Tapaile bhaneko jasto hos..
Tapaiko Kati ho cn?
April 13, 2018 at 03:38
SB, tapai ko case number kati ho…mero pani AS68… ma cha, aba 3 months matrai baki cha alik daar lagdai cha.
April 15, 2018 at 15:25
Mero Pani AS68… Near about 69..
Yeah..it seems risky now..I might be the last one from Nepal
April 13, 2018 at 03:29
Hi Simon!
My Case Number i AS10800 .
Will I have chance to get 2nl in june?
please answer me dear
April 13, 2018 at 05:09
I don’t know. Wait and see.
April 13, 2018 at 04:51
Hello Brit.
My case was just selected this bulletin.
I am from a travel banned country, will this affect me from getting my 2NL / Interview date?
Regards,
April 13, 2018 at 05:15
Repeated question!
https://britsimonsays.com/vb-progress-with-3-months-to-go/comment-page-1/#comment-109735
April 13, 2018 at 06:48
Hi, Brit!
I have number 2018EU215**, Russia
Made last changes in DS-260 in February, 2018.
1) How do you think: is July 100% mine?
I have family of 4.
2) How do you think: is $35K enough to show in IV?
Best wishes,
Kitty
April 13, 2018 at 14:07
1. Yes
2. Maybe.
April 14, 2018 at 05:14
$35K is enough for sure
April 13, 2018 at 11:07
Brit i know you get these questions a lot but considering all those calculations and wait and see method which is one of the best i just wanted to make sure is my number safe in all this chaos haha 2018EU25. Thank you
April 13, 2018 at 12:06
Take a look at the comment above written by Cal. EU25 is far from safe. But let’s wait for the Brit’s reply.
April 13, 2018 at 14:30
Wait and see is the best. The calculations help some people prepare themselves and ensures that people fully understand the risk, so don’t quit jobs and so on…
April 13, 2018 at 14:55
Do you think is it possible to see the cutoff at EU23500 sometime in August? It’s based on the Cal’s calculations above.
April 13, 2018 at 16:02
Well – not based in Cal’s calculations, but rather on common sense – yes – that is “possible”. Will it happen – wait and see.
April 13, 2018 at 11:52
Calculate your own case
https://cutoffproject.github.io/cutoff/cutoff_en.html
Code: https://github.com/cutoffproject/cutoff
April 13, 2018 at 16:15
That’s a fun tool but seems to ignore some important things. For example – what about the cases currently on AP from the first 6 months of processing.
April 14, 2018 at 05:12
said mister “33k is safe” ๐
April 13, 2018 at 16:44
mr simon
you said that the visa issued is 8000 for africa and the quota is 21600
q1: do they reduce the visa issued for AF or they must issued the total quota (21600)?
Q2: the limited country(egypt and ethiopeia) will take the total visa (3500) 7% or it will decrease?
Q3: the next VB will increase for egypt (up to 20500) because it very slowly ?
April 13, 2018 at 16:53
1. It is not a MUST to reach the quota – BUT there are already over 2200 people on AP – many of whom will be approved as well as the 8000. So – they are not as far behind as you might imagine.
2. Egypt might reasch the cap – Ethiopia won’t.
3. I don’t know.
April 13, 2018 at 16:47
Hello,
I am a little confused reading the previous posts about the cutoff. For EU, there has been a case increase of about at least 2000,mostly around 2300-2500 per month. Why all of a sudden are we talking about a cutoff of about 23500 in August? Wouldn’t it be around 24500-25000 by August with the current pace? Is the pace expected to slow down even further moving forward?
Thank you
April 13, 2018 at 16:49
It is not only about the pace it is also about how many visas left for Europe given the quota of 18300. There is not enough visas left to get to 24500-25000.
April 13, 2018 at 16:55
I’m not talking about a cutoff of 23500 although Pablo asked if that number would be *in* August.
April 13, 2018 at 17:12
Actually, I was talking about EU23500 as the final cutoff. It could happen in August given the current pace or later in September if they decide to slow down a little bit. Sorry for misleading.
April 13, 2018 at 17:26
Oh I see. Well – Cal has his/her calculations. They are not mine.
April 13, 2018 at 17:31
Many people here would appreciate if you could speculate a little bit to what extent do you agree with Cal. It could also help eliminate some further questions.
April 13, 2018 at 18:06
I’m sure you’re right – some people would like that, and some people would hate it. BUT I have said repeatedly to wait and see. The reason is because I know that all the accurate speculation cannot account for the factors we cannot anticipate such as happened in AF region in DV2015. In that year I calculated mathematically the cutoff to be 55000 at least, and inexplicably KCC stopped early at 50000. In the end, once numbers were available, we saw that AF region was underfilled (under quota) so it proved my calculation was correct – but I don’t run the lottery – and KCC got it wrong.
Math can only get us so far. It cannot account for factors such as KCC finishing early, or allowing the quota to go beyond the quota at 50k (thus using the NACARA visas). There are many unknowns.
So – I tell people to WAIT AND SEE for good reason.
April 13, 2018 at 17:32
Hello brit please
1)how many cases are there in Cameroon?
2) how many real cases are between AF28 300 and AF51461?
April 13, 2018 at 18:13
1. 3720 selectees were selected for Cameron. That includes derivatives, so that is probably around 2000 cases. That is from the JULY 2017 visa bulletin.
2. 10,266 – that is from the CEAC data https://dvcharts.xarthisius.xyz/ceacFY18.html
Please learn to use the files provided by Xarthisius.
April 15, 2018 at 07:11
Hi Brit,
I have check at the visa progress for Cameroon, and i found out that not up to 500 visas have been issued for Cameroon and the rate of AP is not up to 50 as of 12/04/2018. And also some have been refused too but not an alarming number like Ghana. So at this point there is hope me 41803, and I am a psychologist ,I work closely with your risk zone line,and again I have realized most Cameroon’s Case are found from 30 down to 50…..k
So Brit I would love to know how many actual number of visa to be issue for Cameroon alone please thanks(Danke).
April 15, 2018 at 14:07
There are no visas reserved for any country. THe visas are allocated within the region.
April 13, 2018 at 17:36
My CN is 30xxx Iโm so disappointed.?almost 1 year i was thinking and dreaming about going to USA but now Iโve lost hope… good luck everybody :))
April 13, 2018 at 17:59
I meant EU30xxx
April 14, 2018 at 02:41
I am the same EU30xxx, I was pretty confident I would get it until last month, it seems less and less likely now :/
April 14, 2018 at 10:20
Same story(( I am EU30xxx too
April 13, 2018 at 18:18
Hello my case number is less that 50,000 and am from Cameroon and up till now I have not been called up. Can I be positive to be call up?
April 13, 2018 at 18:19
No – you have to wait and see if they reach your case number.
April 13, 2018 at 18:29
Haha, I’ve been insulted because I said 30XXX would be called between “July and Never”.
Anyway, good luck all !
April 13, 2018 at 18:46
Really? I just checked all your posts (89 of them) and I can’t see where you ever said anything about “July and Never”. I did see where some posters were fed up with you, but that was back when you were asking and repeating many questions that had been discussed many times – and that is obviously a bit frustrating as you yourself admitted.
April 13, 2018 at 19:49
Yes, like the majority of the questions asked here.
April 13, 2018 at 20:15
Yep.
April 13, 2018 at 22:41
Hello Britt what do you think about EU 235## now?Im really sad right now,please can you tell me your opinion.Thank you
April 13, 2018 at 23:08
Please read the article above where I fully describe my opinion.
April 13, 2018 at 23:27
I think that some people (including myself) might be confused because you did not disagree with Cal in the comments. And Cal’s calculations show that EU23500 could very likely be the final cutoff for Europe.
April 14, 2018 at 03:46
I explained my reasoning in detail.
April 13, 2018 at 23:19
Hi Brit, my sister won the dv lottery and her case number is AF2018xxx18000. But now the VB case number for Africa is around 22000 if am correct and is it too late to process the ds 260 or she still have chance to process it. Thank you
April 14, 2018 at 03:47
She can still process it.
April 14, 2018 at 00:42
Hi sir brit,ฤฑ have no chance to see data on My mobile phone..Could you tel me the actual cases between 2018 EU 00001 and 2018EU27620 please??
April 14, 2018 at 03:44
I am on a tablet – so no.
April 14, 2018 at 08:40
Hello, Brit. I have 5737 real cases from 18000 to 31000 (CN 30***) with 2.25 derivatives = 13000 people.
And we have 10559 issued, 1460 AP and 4156 ready visas. Let it be 15300 issued visas. So we have a. 3000 free visas from 18000 to 31000.
If the density will fall from 40+% to 20-25% we`ll see 2600-3250 real people for 3000 visas. Am I right?
Same calculations we may use with 36000+: from 18000 to 37000 7882 real cases with 2.25 derivatives and we have 17734 people, and if the density will fall from 40+% to 20-25% we`ll see 3516-4435 people.
Of course this is an approximate calc. but scenario with a density from 40+% to 20-25% is real.
April 14, 2018 at 11:19
add to your calc. 10.7%(issued/refused) refuse rate which barely will be reduced. Another theory: Simon says KCC wants meet quota by reducing a pace. Let’s imagine they don’t think about pace and think about visas only. The several figure 1700 issued per month and why they are so prolific last 2 months with issuing about 2000? May be they want issue as much as they can? Where is reducing if we close eyes on VB pace? Just propose how mana visas they wanted to issue with their steps. 18300? Im not sure….
April 14, 2018 at 14:42
OK – that is just a jumble of words.
April 14, 2018 at 14:35
You lost me. I don’t understand your numbers or your point.
April 14, 2018 at 14:59
@YU
so cut off for EU will be…???
April 14, 2018 at 20:32
I don`t know. But if the density`ll fall to 20% we`ll see big numbers – 36+, if the density`ll fall to 25% we`ll se 33+. We can observe a similar (and smaller) density in 2015 and 2017.
April 14, 2018 at 22:15
@Yu, I think you must be confused. WE already KNOW the density. Density is number of cases left after the holes are taken out. The CEAC data already shows the density.
April 15, 2018 at 06:16
I mean the number of ready cases.
April 15, 2018 at 14:03
Huh? WE know the ready cases too.
April 15, 2018 at 16:19
“Huh? WE know the ready cases too” – how can we know this if we don`t know how much winners sent DS-260? If you know the number, pls tell me how many DS-260 registered in KCC (from 19000 to 39695 CN). We can know real cases only (yellow chart), considering the holes (blue chart), but not a number of registered DS-260 in KCC.
April 15, 2018 at 16:56
So you are NOT talking about ready cases!!!! Get the terms right!
You are talking about the number of people that have responded, but are not yet scheduled. For that – we can predict future, based on past. Current EU DV2018 response rate to this point has been around 60%.
April 15, 2018 at 18:02
“Get the terms right!” Sorry for my english. Yes i`m talking about people that have responded. So, 60% is not bad for us. If this parameter not increase or decrease a little, we can see 33+ as you predicted.
April 15, 2018 at 22:27
With only three months left, the quota is not the only concern. The pace is also a problem.
April 16, 2018 at 11:27
chill out Simon,
Yu just shared his own opinion, I do not know why that many !!!! and nervous. Do not be frustrated.
April 16, 2018 at 16:02
I am perfectly chilled out thank you.
April 14, 2018 at 08:48
Guys, I think there’s an easy way to estimate final cut-off for any region. I’ve seen most of Brit’s posts this year but I’ve never seen this simple calculations. So, for EU on 18.04.10 we have 10600 issued visas and 1460 AP, and approx. 16500 CN (that’s for this date). Let’s assume that 90% AP would be issued. So, the ratio is (10600+0.9*1460)/16500=0.722. And it’s include all possible coefficients (hole, refused and so on). We have 18300 limit, so, final cut-off should be (I hope at least) about 18300/0.722=25350. That’s correlate with current pace – if pace isn’t decrease (I really hope so) and is about 2000, we should get about 26000 cut-off.
And, BTW, why don’t you guys consider year of 2005 (or 2000) as an example? There were some months in the end of the year with the SAME CN, so the pace was 0 (and the final cut-off was about 21000) That’s what I really afraid of. They can just stop the CN and that’s all.
April 14, 2018 at 14:39
That method is what I used and explained in my first prediction for this year. You are applying it mid year – fine – but remember that people from different countries have different factors.
And yes – the pace is sometimes zero. That is likely to happen for Nepal for instance. Whether is happens or not for EU depends on how they set the pace next month and the month after. 2 fast, or three slow. Either way gets to the same place – but that is why we don’t base all hope or predictions on monthly pace.
April 15, 2018 at 16:27
What could be cut off for Nepal this year any guesses
April 15, 2018 at 16:48
You have already asked that, and I already answered. We know there are no more Nepal cases above 7000 – so the cutoff is below that. Exactly where it will cutoff – I can’t be precise.
April 14, 2018 at 10:28
Brit your brutal but short comments on OC are appreciated. I’m OCxxxx1900 boo for me and the nearly 3500 hundred of us in this crazy stupid overselected year.
April 14, 2018 at 14:40
Yep – not everyone appreciates the swift brutal blow – but in OC there is no reason for doubt.
April 16, 2018 at 05:37
Oceania numbers have gone higher in the past…depends on a lot of factors. I checked a few VB HERE:
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2013/visa-bulletin-for-august-2013.html
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2008/visa-bulletin-for-july-2008.html
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2007/visa-bulletin-for-july-2007.html
April 16, 2018 at 16:22
You didn’t need to check the VBs – I have several years worth collated from the menu above.
The number is just a number. Simply because a higher number existed before means nothing to this year.
April 14, 2018 at 11:58
mr simon
what the case number is risk as you see for egypt ?
is up to (AF24000)?
my CN (20xxx) is still have chance to be interviewed?
April 14, 2018 at 14:43
I don’t know.
April 14, 2018 at 15:10
hello brit Simon, how are you today thank you ever so much.
1. I have my case start from AF 31XX AND SEEING THIS AF;3800;2018AF3800;LOM;Ready;13-Oct-2016;19-Mar-2018;0;0;1;0;0;0;0
2. HOW WILL I UNDERSTAND AF;3800;2018AF3800;LOM;Ready;13-Oct-2016;19-Mar-2018;0;0;1;0;0;0;0?
April 14, 2018 at 15:21
at the top of the file there is a heading for each column of data.
April 14, 2018 at 15:20
HEY BRIT SIMON,
DV2018 Raw CEAC Data
A complete dump of the database made on a given date.
1. HOW DO I IDETIFILE MY CASE # 38131 ?
2.WHEN IT’S WRITTEN LIKE AF;3800;2018AF3800;LOM;Ready;13-Oct-2016;19-Mar-2018;0;0;1;0;0;0;0?
3.HOW TO KNOW I AM PART OF APRIL OR MAY?
PLEASE TELL ME I AM CONFUSE OF IT.
April 14, 2018 at 16:04
Hey guys
please explain AP.
Europe AP example: 1460 4/10/2018
Quota 18300 contains AP or not? AP after reaching quota will be cancelled or it is already counting to the limit.
April 14, 2018 at 16:38
18300 is for ISSUED visas. AP cases are still under processing. They might be approved later, or refused, or not be processed by the deadline.
April 14, 2018 at 17:04
hi brit………my case number was 97** i didn’t filled yet the the form and only 3 visa billeting are remaining as stated some comments over there. the reason i didn’t filled the form was that i dont have and not able to get certificate of good conduct my one year stay in Deutschland and i live one of those countries affected by the travel ban. i do not see any chance over there due to those reasons i mentioned above. so do you think its better to fill the form or should i wait till the court announce its final order about the issue of the 7 countries affected by the travel ban.
thanks
April 14, 2018 at 18:04
It is your choice. I think you could wait to see what the supreme court rule.
April 14, 2018 at 17:24
Hello, dear I am from Iran! And unfortunately Iran has been banned! If I am selected, what will happen?! Do I take measure?! Do I have this chance to give me visa?! ??
April 14, 2018 at 18:05
While the ban is in force, you cannot get a visa UNLESS you have some other nationality.
April 14, 2018 at 18:15
This might be a question for Xarthisius. The country Guyana has issued 2 visa for February 2018 according to your Data…but i cannot find any information on the XL spread sheet…it suppose to be listed under GEO. Was it omitted…Need your information and help on this one
April 14, 2018 at 22:59
The fact that they were born in Guyana, doesn’t imply that they processed their green card in Guyana. As an example, 2 people from SA received GCs in Frankfurt, Germany on Feb 13 (case 2018SA373). Alternatively, they were already in US when they won and did AOS. In that scenario their case is still listed as ‘At NVC’.
April 16, 2018 at 12:18
Hi Madonna are you from Guyana and awaiting interview. I am awaiting my number to be current, do you have a number that we can communicate.
April 16, 2018 at 16:26
[email protected] you can email me there
April 15, 2018 at 08:18
hello BriSimon,
Thank you for great blog&job!
if the next 3 months kcc will give to 2233 (2233×3 = 6700). from 20300 it will be around 27000 cn.
in the CEAC data we see 2889 cn to 27,000.
what 6700 (with a hole) or 2889 (without a hole), we accept for counting?
also how many free visas we have for EU?
April 15, 2018 at 14:10
Holes don’t matter.
The EU quota is 18300.
April 15, 2018 at 09:56
As an statistician, Calโs estimation is absolutely WRONG. The Science Statistics is not like this. According to selectee behaviours from the beginning, approximately 2500-3000 real cases will be processed in July,August and Sept until the end of FY2018 at the significance level 95%.
April 15, 2018 at 10:33
so arnblt please tell us your predictions.
April 15, 2018 at 14:51
This is only my prediction. The only FACT is appr 10500 visa issued till april 10. In 7 months 10500 visas. Where do we now all AP s will be issued or when? Why do we think that many people reschedule their interviews (ready cases).? Again this is my prediction, after jun minimum 3000 visa will remain. And finally the quota 18300. I also think that it will be exceeded. Previous years iran got 3801 visas. Even more than 7% of 55000.
April 15, 2018 at 14:53
Even more then 7% of 50000
April 15, 2018 at 14:35
So what is your prediction for your Eu cut off for september? Thank you birader..
April 15, 2018 at 12:12
I did some homework for AF, and I think while it’s impossible to predict final cut off because of this year’s uncertainity and lack of a clear pattern,…we can speculate about a wide range (instead of a number) and different scenarios. What I found out is,….if KCC makes sure the quota for AF is absolutly filled, the final cut off should be around 45XXX. If their only goal is to not saturate embassies and make the process as smooth as possible,…the final cut off may be around 39XXX. Unfortunately, 2015 show us KCC doesn’t always pursue the objective to fill the quota, and this year’s slow progression may indicate their number one goal is not to create chaos at embassies as last year for example. So 39XXX may be closer to reality than 45XXX.
Just my two cents.
April 15, 2018 at 12:24
can u count for EU aswell bro?
April 16, 2018 at 06:25
How did u get 39xxx?
April 16, 2018 at 12:53
i was wondering too,,people should stop killing hopes,,,,,kcc is the only one who decide so lets wait and see
April 17, 2018 at 18:38
39XXXX only if they stick to not exceeding consulates’ capacity ,……… How to calculate it, it has been explained many times here. Check old posts by britsimon .
I’m the first one to hope my 39XXX prediction is wrong, since I myself have a High case number in mid 40s,…let’s just hope they give priority to filling AF quota of 21600 visas and open the floodgates (3 months is a very short time for issuing 10.000 visas, considering they only granted 8500 visas in 8 months plus 2000 APs). But I’m rather skeptical.
April 17, 2018 at 18:45
It’s not 8000 in 8 months, it’s 8400 in 6.5 months of processing – and as I have said many times, the early months are always slower because of holiday season and no wave of old clearing AP cases. An issuance rate of 2000+ in AF is not at all unlikely. However, this year I do agree that the pace is likely to be more of a concern than the mathematical maximum – which is why “wait and see” is the only sensible answer.
April 17, 2018 at 19:24
My bad,…From Oct 1st to mid April it’s 6.5 months,…and they have 5.5 months to fill the quota, not 3 months as I mistakenly said. But that doesn’t alter my calculations. For 39XXX I used the worst case scenario of 1600 visas per month. If they accelerate the pace and rate of visa issuance, the initial prediction of 46XXX won’t be affected, obviously. And that’s the only hope we have people with high-but-theorically-possible case numbers. Nevertheless I still advise people with number cases of more than 40XXX to be prepared for the worst,…next month’s bulletin will be the bulletin of confirmation for people like me (if hope is dead or still alive).
April 17, 2018 at 20:02
The issuance pace builds up – the last month has seen almost 2000 issued – that is similar to other years.
April 15, 2018 at 14:27
Hi dear Brit. Thank you for all…
My case number is EU24850. Please predict me when will my interview. August or September?
Sincerely
April 15, 2018 at 15:19
Wait and see.
April 15, 2018 at 15:38
Hi Simon. How are u? CN EU29150
Have I chance?
April 15, 2018 at 16:59
You have to wait and see.
April 16, 2018 at 08:27
Visas will run out of quotas before
April 17, 2018 at 19:41
You still have a little chance.
April 15, 2018 at 15:38
What does it mean when a visa is ready? Thanks
April 15, 2018 at 16:58
Do you mean when a case show ready status??
April 15, 2018 at 18:18
yeah, what is the percentage of those “ready” not being issued
April 15, 2018 at 22:29
Take a look at the file.
April 15, 2018 at 17:03
@luka314 โReadyโ means that CN is current and has already been sent to embassy for interview.
April 15, 2018 at 17:04
Visas that should have been given to Iran, whether these visas can be added to Europe?
Last year 3800 visas were given to Iran.
April 15, 2018 at 17:16
First, Iran took 2106 visas last year.
AS region was over selected. However, since Iranian and Yemeni issuances will be low, the rest of Asia can use those visas. If there is some left after all the a regions cases are processed, those visas can be transferred to other regions. However, in practice, that is hard to make happen due to timing.
April 16, 2018 at 01:36
My case number might be current by August (hopefully). Up to what time can I make an address change in order not to have any trouble during dv lottery process?
April 16, 2018 at 03:24
before the month you become current.
April 16, 2018 at 06:23
Hi Brit,
Was 2015 an overselected year??
April 16, 2018 at 13:18
Yes. 125,514 selectees
More than now (115,968)
April 16, 2018 at 16:20
Yes
April 16, 2018 at 07:52
Hi, just simple question, should i hope to get at interview with CN EU32xxx or it is lost battle?? Thx
April 16, 2018 at 16:19
It looks unlikely.
April 16, 2018 at 10:02
Hello Sir Brit,
I read through the post for VBs for June the rank cut off carried my number AF248*** but no 2NL as of yet when I opened the CEAC on your webpage to check my case a notification showed up about the NVC informing me to complete some steps from 1-6 before an appointment date will be send to me
I became confused Sir
I closed the page hope I didn’t
commit an error by doing so?
April 16, 2018 at 16:11
No problem. Just wait for your 2NL – it could be as later as 2 weeks time.
April 16, 2018 at 11:50
You guys can call me foolish
But when CAL’s explained clearly all datas and I REALIZED that EU cut off will be 23,5k – first, I was shocked, then I studied data, and that predictions are right. I think that might be even smaller.
Now I am CRYING big tears because of that. My number is EU258XX, I had lifetime opportunity, which I am really thankful but I am also mad at myself that I let my imagination to believe my number was like super safe. How stupid I have been.
Now I need to cheer up. Do not want to hear WAIT and SEE because guys all is clear. Is much better to reconcil with reality than trying to change things we can not affect.
It was journey full of dreams, but now it is time to be strong. Life goes on.
Thank you Brit for amazing Blog, thank you guys for such nice comunnity. Wish you all the best I hope life will treat you great.
April 16, 2018 at 13:17
Hi marta,
I do not think you should be so hopeless. Perhaps as we approach the end, we are habitually looking desperately at numbers. To me, there are still 4500-5000 visas for the last 4 months after May. That means 3000 unique according to me. CASE IDs. This can be promising for people who has 25,000 CNs. There will also be files that do not result in AP files.
Do not hurry. Then you can have to change your plans again.WAIT.
April 16, 2018 at 13:33
Life if great… With or without USA. Good luck ๐
April 16, 2018 at 15:02
Marta, dont be so pessimistic. I dont agree with cals prediction because i think he didnt take into account number of no responses (who did not fill ds 260). Until 18050, nearly 40% of all the real cases are still โAt NVCโ which means they did not even fill ds260. Please have a look at the data closely. I think it go up to 27-28k.
April 16, 2018 at 15:07
I submitted my DS-260 and they are “At NVC” now. It means exactly that those people submitted their forms.
April 16, 2018 at 15:23
No – some have submitted their forms, some haven’t. Either way, At NVC is the starting case status – the same for ALL cases.
April 16, 2018 at 16:01
Really – you need to wait and see. And you will pay attention to the VB progress as all others will, that is certain. So – best of luck.
April 16, 2018 at 12:05
EU240XX is here. I think the only thing Cal didn’t take into account is AP and Ready cases left at the end of September. If you take a look at other years, there’s always backlog of AP and Ready cases trailing till September. This is my only hope.
April 16, 2018 at 13:16
this year probably they will cut off as he said (23k), just to proceed rest to the end – even if that means not reaching quota (few less) so I would not believe there will be any new VB numbers for september.
April 16, 2018 at 15:13
Pablo your cn is not current yet thats why your status is โAt NVCโ. Check at nvc count between 20k and 30k, take 60% of them which gonna be real cases then apply derivative rate etc.
April 16, 2018 at 16:39
Just remember even 2% error on such large numbers can make a big difference. If you doubt ,take 2% of 5k or even 5%. There is such a thing as error in population statistics. What I hate is people take some of these numbers like gospel. Just wait an see
April 16, 2018 at 12:48
Don’t be ridiculous everybody. EU23500 cutoff is as unrealistic as EU40000+. There is a quarter of the year ahead, it means KCC should have planned to process quarter of the cases in the last months.
April 16, 2018 at 13:16
Hi Brit, unfortunately due to my high CN number my opportunity for an interview is at real risk for this DV process. Given that at this point immigration laws have not been modified and that we are just one month away from the next DV draw, at what point can we know with some degree of certainty that a DV process will continue until the end? Once the draw has taken place? Once the interviews start? Thanks!
April 16, 2018 at 13:27
end of DV18 process is 30/09 or when quota is reached
April 16, 2018 at 15:32
After October 1.
April 17, 2018 at 20:06
Hi seen as the visa has to be ISSUED by Oct 1, in the past have CN that become current in September received visas in time? Thanks
April 17, 2018 at 21:02
Yes of course.
April 16, 2018 at 13:19
it is not investment advice ๐
11571 (0-15950 ap+issued)
5198 (0-15950 ap+issued Only reel id)
11571/5198= 2,226 avarege visa per real id
0,51 average apply count
11407 (0-15950 Total reel id)
11407 X 0,51 X 2,226 = 12,949
12606 (0-18050 Total reel id)
12606 X ~0,51 X ~2,23 = 14,336
13677 (0-20300 Total reel id)
13677 X ~0,51 X ~2,23 = 15,554
16070 (0-25900 Total reel id)
16070 X ~0,51 X ~2,23 = 18276
April 16, 2018 at 17:05
EU28K ฤฐwhat percet to get brit?
April 16, 2018 at 17:15
He can’t answer you. I do : 10% (I have 29K…)
April 16, 2018 at 18:05
acording to cal’s datas explains – 0%. But who knows,
April 16, 2018 at 18:46
@Caner. I don’t know. Others may try and tell you, but no one knows – you just have to wait and see.
April 16, 2018 at 18:06
Hello Brit I have a problem I am working in a bank and where am working I had a shortage and I have been paying and it happen that I won the lottery so I moved on with my lottery program I don’t know how my manager manage to know that I going for and interview day before the interview he wrote to the embassy that I have stolen money and I want to run away I heard of it and I was scared of going for the interview but my brother insisted on me going and I went when I got there they ask me about it and I agreed to them that I had not stolen any money what I had was a shortage and I have been paying and I also have no plans of running or leaving without paying the money so the consular ask me to go and sort out my self with my bank and the bank should sent them an email contradicting the first letter that every thing is alright and they also ask me to come back with my passport and a new non conviction and also hard copy of the letter from my bank which I have gone and deposit it theremy problem now is that I don’t know if there is any chances of getting the visa and if they are going to call me for it please I really do need opinion sorry I used a wrong email and I have receive a reply so I decided to write it again
April 16, 2018 at 18:44
How could I possibly know more than you do? I cannot predict the outcome.
April 17, 2018 at 05:18
I don’t know Brit my passport is there but am so scared and don’t know if they will still call me to give cause they ask me to wait until they call
April 17, 2018 at 05:39
So do as you were told.
April 16, 2018 at 18:35
i just saw on the official website us Belgrade that visa bulletin for june is 20.350 for EU not 20.300.I mean it is just diferences in 50, but i tought that when we see 20.300 it;s the same in every website.
April 16, 2018 at 18:40
It doesn’t matter what Belgrade say (although it would have helped if you had provided a link). The official number is what counts.
April 16, 2018 at 18:38
i meant the official website us embassy Belgrade
April 16, 2018 at 20:05
Hello ! I have submitted my DS260, but I’m, as a lot, in EU in the late 20’s.
However, I live in the US actually, and I wish to leave the US for vacation. I told in my DS260 my last travels in/out the US, but can I leave the US without risking my application ? (As if I do another in/out in won’t be accurate anymore)
Thanks !
April 16, 2018 at 21:12
Are you processing in the USA or outside of the USA??
April 16, 2018 at 21:24
I choose to process outside of the USA for delay reason in AOS
April 16, 2018 at 21:55
Then no problem. No need to worry about the additional trip.
April 16, 2018 at 22:01
Ok, so just to be 100% sure, even a person living in Europe and applying through the DS260 can travel in the USA after he/she completed the form?
(Because for me my last “travel” is I enter the US at date XXXX for 6 months (ie end of my VISA) (and if I do additional trips it won’t be accurate anymore)
Sorry for bothering you, I’m sure you must be pissed of people like me ๐ !
Thank you very much for everything anyway, I’ve been reading your blog for a year and it really really helped !
April 16, 2018 at 23:04
Yes, just to be 100% clear – travelling to the USA before the interview (on an ESTA or an existing visa), after the DS260 is submitted is OK. If you wanted to, you could unlock and update the trip on the DS260 – but it doesn’t matter if you don’t do that.
April 16, 2018 at 23:25
Wow, I’m SA170x, any kind of hope?
April 17, 2018 at 00:51
Yes there is hope – predictions cannot be precise.
April 17, 2018 at 16:23
If you make a bet. Do you do it up or down the 1700’s?
April 17, 2018 at 16:40
I wouldn’t bet.
April 17, 2018 at 04:29
Dear Mr Brit,
Any chance for CASE 2018AS903*
April 17, 2018 at 04:51
Wait and see…