OK – this is the “Month end” CEAC extract. IN theory it is actually a little less than a full month as some updates could happen tomorrow – but it is “near enough”.
The file shows there is a “miss” on the pace – they should be nearing 5000, and they actually only issued just over 4000! There are two main causes of that,. EU had a small number of interviews scheduled for this month s- whilst the first half of the month was on track for 2000 visas issued, the EU pace died down in the second half of the month. The EU pace dropped by about 500 visas as a result. I suspect that was deliberate on the part of KCC – I believe the 2200 pace was higher than they were wanting. Slowing down the pace makes sure there are still some visa processing activities in September – which is the best use of their resources. With 4 months of processing to go – EU are nicely placed to hit the target.
The other surprise is the slow pace in AF region. The no shows must be a factor in AF. I really hope KCC realize the issue and schedule more interviews in August and September as a result. At current pace AF region is at risk to NOT hit the quota for the region – which could waste some visa places which MANY people would like to use!
Asia pace is picking up as I pointed out a couple of weeks ago. This is entirely consistent with previous years and again I would say AS region is on target.
We can also see that there are almost no “in Transit” cases. AS region had 30 added this week – but that clearly is not the full extent of the 2NLs this month. Come on KCC IT department – what are you playing at!!!!
Here is the data.
May 31, 2015 at 05:20
hi simon i an from nepal my case plz can u plz give some answer of my
question plz plz plz first i am so frusted because my cn was 7845 is there any chance and can u guess next cuttoff number for nepal and is that true that there still 2 vb for nepal
May 31, 2015 at 08:16
I am sorry, chances are very narrow. As of 29-May issued 2401 visas for Nepal. This is up to May CN 5275, There are another 1200 CN for June & July (July Cutoff for Nepal 6475) with this 1200 CN, there will be another 550 visas for Nepal.
So, ~ Total =2401+550=~ 2951
Without AOS we will see in CEAC around ~ 3300 Visas for Nepal, Balance =~3300-~2951=~350 only remaining 350 visas fill out before your CN.
But still you may have chance we don’t know, please wait and see.
May 31, 2015 at 16:00
Agreed!
June 1, 2015 at 07:25
Can you please tell me the meaning of AOS? Thank you
June 1, 2015 at 19:17
AoS = Adjustment of STatus – cases where the selectee already lives in the USA and will process there rather than the embassy in their home country.
May 31, 2015 at 07:42
Hi Simon,
Will you be making your VB predictions for July in the next few days?
Thanks,
Mike
May 31, 2015 at 16:01
Maybe…
May 31, 2015 at 08:18
Hello Brit!
Waiting for your predictions for Nepal, I hope!!
Thanking you.
May 31, 2015 at 09:06
Hello brit sir
Plz could u predict about next vb increased for nepal and left visa numbers.I m so worried about my cns my cns is 696*
Thank u
May 31, 2015 at 09:15
Hi mr. Britsimon, this article doesn’t contain any prediction , right? well, i wonder what do u think about August VB for EU? do u think EU383XX have any chance for August interview? thnx
May 31, 2015 at 15:56
Yes that number has a chance for August.
May 31, 2015 at 16:01
good chance or may be chance?
May 31, 2015 at 18:34
good chance
May 31, 2015 at 10:34
What is the percentage that AF cut off will reach till 66 or above? ???
May 31, 2015 at 15:53
Low chance.
May 31, 2015 at 11:28
hi brit ….
with these new data i would like to know if KCC might reach his target in AF region??
i would also like to know if there is still for my case to get an interview??
my caes is AF610XX.
THANKS FOR ALL JOB YOU ARE DOING!!!
May 31, 2015 at 15:52
KCC will most likely hit the target. Your number still has a chance.
May 31, 2015 at 14:21
and 55000 is save??,
May 31, 2015 at 15:44
Should have a good chance…
May 31, 2015 at 18:24
Hi!
Please sir, AS80** has a good chance in august interview?
Thanks!
May 31, 2015 at 18:32
If it is not Nepal – yes.
May 31, 2015 at 19:11
Hi brit
Small chance for Af 70xxx ,right.?
Thanks.
May 31, 2015 at 19:18
Very small chance… 🙁
May 31, 2015 at 21:16
BritSimon. Why the Havana Cuba Embassy has the highest Refusal and Administrative Processing Ratios in all SA?
June 1, 2015 at 01:48
Probably public charge reasons, but I cannot be certain.
May 31, 2015 at 22:02
Hi Mr.brit what do you think about my case number AF492xx ???? Thank you
June 1, 2015 at 02:58
Should be safe.
May 31, 2015 at 23:41
Hi brit my case is 2015AF532xx according to You my interview Will be in august or septembre?
June 1, 2015 at 01:47
It cannot be august, it can only be September
June 1, 2015 at 00:31
ohhh I’m getting nervous and anxious! it seems that they don’t care so much about SA, that’s sad. My CN SA13** and waiting for the new VB this week to see the cut-off number for august
June 1, 2015 at 01:46
It is not about caring for SA, it is simply how the quota gets filled. Your number should be okay
June 1, 2015 at 05:09
Hi brit have a chance with my number 2015af000598xx?
June 1, 2015 at 19:19
You can only wait and see.
June 1, 2015 at 06:02
Sir Simon,
I see that you do not always understand my recent question:
By reading what you posted on the database of the ECAC, it is possible that the slow KCC at the AF area is not good for the final cut-off ! But please tell us what is the number 20,000 visas can be achieved for Africa? Looking at the numbers in the table above for AF ussued (10155) is that there is hope?
Also in the picture, is what the 11753 number of NVC includes all those we will call until September 30 2015?
cordially thinking more explécite.
June 1, 2015 at 08:18
Hi Brit,
I have been interviewed today, and unfortunately they put my case on AP.
The reason : we need to take special permission for your nationality. “Comoros”
What do you think? I’m little bit nervous!
Will they approve my visa?
June 1, 2015 at 08:58
Hello Brit,
Something caught my attention on the data that you published. I refer refused visas. It is 339 for the month of May 2015. And if we multiply this figure with the family rate derivatives 1.86, this is 630.54. That’s a lot.
With this rate, KCC has no choice but to double the cutoff July that September is at least 71000 to 73000 default.
What do you think?
Good start to the week!
June 1, 2015 at 19:15
No – that is not how it works. THe refusals are already taken in to account – and I don’t think we will see a final VB of 70000 or above.
June 1, 2015 at 10:22
sorry a mistake if KCC is planning for 2 VB then there might be chance for 7586 otherwise is there any chance?
June 1, 2015 at 19:09
Small chance still…. small.
June 2, 2015 at 02:01
Enter your comment here… Enter your comment here…hi brit
My no is 2015AF0000XXXX and submit DS260 form at the beginning of may 2015. Am i safe? If yes when will be my interview?
Thanks!
June 2, 2015 at 03:17
Wow you completed your form VERY late. It might be processed in time, it might not. You can only wait and see….
June 2, 2015 at 18:50
Dear Mr. Simon, I made an adjustment at my ds260 a few weeks ago, changing my marital status. Is it the same for adjustments? Should I be afraid the KCC is not able to process my case in time if I’m going to be current next month? Thank you
June 2, 2015 at 21:28
A marital status change takes 3 to 4 weeks to process – so you should be fine.
June 3, 2015 at 15:54
HEY BRIT COULD YOU PLEASE RESPOND TO THIS ONE? PLS IT IS URGENT!
SHOULD THERE BE A VB FOR AFRICA WITH 13000 NUMBERS ADDED, THOSE THIS MEANS THAT AF SHALL REACH 65000? AND CAN AF00065000 CHANGE THEIR AFFIDAVIT ADDRESS ON THE DS 260 FORM AFTER THE FORM WAS SUBMITTED IN OCT 2014? PLEASE TO HEAR!
June 3, 2015 at 17:36
How is that urgent???
To get to 65000 we would need to see almost 30,000 number increase in just two VBs – 15,000 each. Whilst we have seen previous years with jumps of up to 15,000 those were years with lower density – so it would be a surprise to see one jump of that size – let alone two in a row. I cannot say that cannot happen for sure, but it is not likely.
As for changing the address – that can be done at the interview.
June 2, 2015 at 06:52
Hello BritSimon Sir, Below 7550 from Nepal
June 1, 2015 at 10:44
Hello, BritSimon!
Have you heard anything about the computer crash in WRW?
Those belarussians who were scheduled on the first days of june received phone calls from the embassy and got a new date of interview from the june 13th…
Even those belarussians who had been interviewed on may 29th, couldn’t receive visas in their passports and had to go home and wait for the call from the embassy.
Do you think it will affect the next VB (since some of cases won’t be able to come in june because they need to get a new shengen visa) or the visa process for EU (since the density of interviews will increase in july and may even be carried away to august)…
Thanks
June 1, 2015 at 11:28
Just to update:
the problem has been solved already, but the question still exists: will the computer crash (from 27/05 (i was wrong about 29/05) till 01/06) affect the process?
June 1, 2015 at 19:09
I doubt this one issue can affect the VB very much…
June 1, 2015 at 10:53
Hello Mr. Brit, please what is your opinion on this case number 2015AF6044X???
Any chance??? and what is the difference between I and the person who was not selected/never won the DV2015???
June 1, 2015 at 19:08
THat number has some risk – you can only wait and see. If that number doesn’t get current – you are correct – there is no further benefit of your win.
June 1, 2015 at 10:55
Any news britsimon??? Not enough data still for predictions?
June 1, 2015 at 19:07
They still have not posted the 2NLs – but I took a look at the data and expect something in the range of 39000 to 44000. I really hope for the higher end of that range (which would show they recognize the no show issue. Anyway – in 9 or 10 days we will see the real VB numbers!
June 1, 2015 at 10:57
any good news about AF, what’s new expectations
June 1, 2015 at 11:23
HI Mr. Brit,
My CN is 2016AS34XX, can you please tell me Am I Save and expected interview date as well tell me that till when would be better to fill the DS260 coz still I don’t Fill it out.
Also I am 3 months pregnant so What should I do in DS 260 regarding this issue.
Thanks and regards
June 1, 2015 at 18:43
Your number is safe – and will probably get interviewed by around the time the baby is born. You will be able to add the baby – there are options depending on whether the baby is born before the interview or not. Let’s discuss nearer the time. You can submit the DS260 soon if you like. Your call.
June 1, 2015 at 11:54
I presume that for Africa we are just about half way in terms of the issued visas ( 10,031), with only 4 interview months remaining, that means about 10,000 visas to be issued. Are we about to see very big jumps say 15k for the next 2 VBs remaining in order to bridge the gap, and what are my chances af58xxx.
June 1, 2015 at 15:24
I don’t think we will see 15k in both VBs – I am hoping we could see early 40’s in the next VB and then maybe a 15k month in the final – so you have a chance IF the next VB isn’t too low.
June 1, 2015 at 11:56
Sorry, I mean 10,155 visas issued not 10,031
June 1, 2015 at 12:02
I have also noted something peculiar, NVC keeps on fluctuating, whereas I expect the figure to be going down steadily, funny enough it is keeps on going up and down, any explanation?
June 1, 2015 at 15:20
Not peculiar at all. As the case numbers increase I extend the end point of the file. I don’t go to the final number every time because it would just be a waste of time. So – each month goes by and more cases are included in the file…
June 1, 2015 at 13:08
Brit what are your thoughts about SA?
June 1, 2015 at 15:18
As I have written before – I expect SA to make normal progress in the last couple of months – and I expect to see the final CN around 14XX
June 1, 2015 at 13:31
Simon, what is ur prediction for August cutoff? Your prediction from the beginning for Africa was around Af68xxx-Af74xxx, but this time we are not getting fix prediction from you. What will be the final prediction for this black color skin AFRICA? I didn’t know that this program is all about making people worry instead making us happy.
June 1, 2015 at 15:13
I don’t have the 2NL information I need to make an accurate month to month prediction this month – however, I think for AF it could be as low as 39000 and as high as 44000.
As for the final number I no longer think we will see numbers as high as the range I have given before. There is now risk for numbers above about 55,000 – and I HOPE to see a number that at least starts with a 6. Beyond that it is hard to say – if KCC go low in the next VB it won’t bode well for the final cutoff.
June 1, 2015 at 16:01
Hmhmhm this is bad,kcc is NT being fair enough
June 1, 2015 at 19:55
that is very bad like told…im going to give up brit..
af610xx
June 1, 2015 at 21:09
Best of luck!!!
June 1, 2015 at 15:55
Hi Brit…thank you for all your hard work. any chance for AF00041*** (2015) for August and when do you think i will receive the 2NL..thanks
June 1, 2015 at 19:21
Yes that has a chance for August interview – and in that case the 2NL would be about 3 weeks from now.
June 1, 2015 at 16:36
Simon, you don’t think that kcc has done injustic to AF by not reaching at least af70xxx?
Or buz we are African? Why put up mass winners? Very, very disappointing.
June 1, 2015 at 16:50
That has nothing to do with the word “AFRICAN” cuz even though they over selected and are slow and might not reach there I bet u it has nothing to do with cuz we are AFRICANS pls don’t say that,its just the process and other regions too are slow by the way
June 1, 2015 at 18:27
Not at all. Nearly half of all the visas available this year will go to Africans. How is that an injustice? The very first letter made it clear that being selected does not guarantee a Green Card – and there is nothing written anywhere that says KCC have to reach AF70XXX or any other number. All they are doing by over selecting is making sure places don’t go to waste on people that don’t process their cases.
Many people, and especially Africans, entered as single and later produced spouses and children. This has swelled the numbers of selected people – but that is part of the process.
June 1, 2015 at 16:55
Hi Brit,
I have been interviewed today, and unfortunately they put my case on AP.
The reason : we need to take special permission for your nationality. “Comoros”
What do you think? I’m little bit nervous!
Will they approve my visa
June 1, 2015 at 18:22
That is the first time I have heard of a special permission needed – so it is hard for me to guess what will happen.
June 2, 2015 at 13:28
This what the consular officer informed me during the interview.
June 3, 2015 at 01:36
OK – well hopefully it will be decided soon.
June 6, 2015 at 07:12
I hope that – I have been waiting for this for more than a year.
But based on what consular officer informed me, do you think that my visa won’t be approved because of my nationality? Is that possible?
June 6, 2015 at 20:10
As I have said – I don’t understand why the decision was delayed – so I cannot guess what the outcome will be.
June 7, 2015 at 06:53
I have been told that it will take couple of weeks.
June 7, 2015 at 16:55
AP times vary.
June 1, 2015 at 17:07
Then why you will say kcc has not fair?
June 1, 2015 at 21:11
Hi Brit, can you please explain the meaning of current, cuz I keep hearing people saying Africa is going to go current.
June 1, 2015 at 21:23
Africa is NOT going to go current – the people saying that are ignoring OBVIOUS facts.
A region going current means there are enough remaining visas for all the remaining cases. July VB is 36500. After 36500 there are about 17000 cases still waiting – each case with an average if 2 people – so 34,000 people waiting. There will not even be 7000 visas remaining after July – so how can 34,000 people get CURRENT from 7000 visas. It is obviously impossible.
June 1, 2015 at 21:33
Thank you for your swift response and patience as well.
June 2, 2015 at 02:48
hi siimon ,,, i think you said before the main visa will be issue to the Applicant so if there will be 7000 as you said above it will be related to main applicant am i right ???
Thanks
June 2, 2015 at 03:16
No – each family member, (the principal and derivatives) each account for one of the visas. So a derivative with a spouse and 3 children takes 5 visas from the 7000.
June 1, 2015 at 21:23
Hello Brit, can you please explain what is meant by current cuz I keep hearing people saying Africa is going to go current but I don’t understand.
June 2, 2015 at 00:48
Sir ,I know you still don’t have enough data to predict the next VB, but with the few infos u have right now, do you still think AS000084** will go current for August?!small or big chance?
June 2, 2015 at 03:20
Yes that is quite likely – I think AS will be 8XXX – so you have a good chance for August.
June 2, 2015 at 01:53
I think 2nd letters have been flowing in Nepal. So are you working on the predictions?#stressed.
June 2, 2015 at 03:19
Yes 2NLs got fixed today – but not the CEAC data which I need. However, I think Asia will be 8XXX for the next VB and Nepal will increase to around 7000.
June 2, 2015 at 03:37
hi sir………. as your thinking next VB will be in 8xxx, so, September VB how can go to 11xxx?????? please……….
June 2, 2015 at 05:23
8XXX means from 8000 to 8999. If they go to nearly 9000 they can inceed get to 11XXX – but the final number is really about how many visa slots are left after Iran take theirs.
June 2, 2015 at 12:01
Sir , how many visas did Asia take so far , and specificly how many did Iran take ?
thanks
June 3, 2015 at 01:40
Please check the latest CEAC file which has that data.
June 2, 2015 at 06:33
Dear Mr. Simon, I made an adjustment at my ds260 a few weeks ago, adding my wife. Is it the same for adjustments? Should I be afraid the KCC is not able to process my case in time if I’m going to be current next month? Thank you
June 2, 2015 at 07:19
hi simon u say that next cuttoff for nepal will be around 7000 and is there any chance for my cn 7845 in september
June 3, 2015 at 01:47
It is risky – wait and see
June 3, 2015 at 11:08
Should not worry. Wait
June 2, 2015 at 08:29
Hello Brit
Good day,I tried checking my status I was told that my number is invalid,so I emailed KCC but they emailed me back n said that they have seen my doc n that my case is pending for visa number to provided ,so I wanted to ask u if it is OK?
June 2, 2015 at 08:42
So kcc sent me an email saying that they have seen my doc n is pending for further embassy review for the continuation of my visa processing. so I don’t know if it OK n if I can get an august interview. cn af00038°°°
June 3, 2015 at 01:44
Sounds like you will get a August interview.
June 2, 2015 at 08:46
Greeting BritSimon.I got 2015AF519xx.Do you think i have a 100% chance to be current in September?
June 3, 2015 at 01:45
yes.
June 2, 2015 at 09:03
As for the question that was asked by DK concerning the refuse visa which he did his personal calculation and came to AF70xxx-AF71xxx as his final VB. Your answer was you don’t think kcc will reach up to AF70xxx or above granted. But between AF66xxx and AF70xxx where do you think kcc will drop as thier final VB if kcc will enter the AF60s?
June 3, 2015 at 01:43
Since there are 2VBs left I would rather see the next VB before considering the final.
June 2, 2015 at 09:59
Simon, do you think what happen 2008 will surely happen this year? Where the final VB for that year stop to af00062300?
June 3, 2015 at 01:42
This year has nothing to do with 2008 – it is entirely different.
June 2, 2015 at 11:40
Hi , If a person live 6 years in a foreign country and then goes back and live in his country for 1 year , and then goes for interview , does he need the police clearnce certification of that foreign country ? Thanks for your great site
June 3, 2015 at 01:41
Yes he would need police certs from the foreign country AND his home country.
June 2, 2015 at 12:22
dear Brit,
what do you think about 600XX?
June 3, 2015 at 01:40
Still have a chance – wait and see
June 2, 2015 at 12:31
NEPAL CASE STUDY- Still good chance for 8000. To fulfillthe quota it is necessary to hit that case. Iran will hit 9500 coz of mass refuge case. ROA hit. 10500. Best of luck.
June 3, 2015 at 01:39
To be perfectly honest, those are pretty awful predictions. Iran don’t have any cases at all over about 8200 – so they won’t continue to 9500. Nepal are taking 450 issued visas per 1000 – so your estimate seems on the high side.
June 2, 2015 at 13:55
Hi
I tried checking on dv 2016 result but the keep telling me that the info are not correct so I don’t know y?but am sure that I put all the info correctly
June 3, 2015 at 01:35
So many people have told me that and generally they are making some mistake. Try again carefully and if you are sure you are doing everything right, you could try emailing KCC….
June 2, 2015 at 16:07
Hello Mr.BritSimon
First of all thank you for the great work ,much respect
My question is : my case num is AF62*** i’am i in a safe harboror or there’s no chance at all
thank you again : )
June 2, 2015 at 22:32
THat number is neither 100% safe nor hopeless – all you can do is wait and see