Ask anyone who has jumped out of a plane about ground rush. The effect can be unsettling, and for some, the end isn’t good.
The DV lottery is a lot like that in some years. This will be one of those years – at least for some.
Yesterday the VB for July interviews was published. Some were surprised about the AF jump (although that should not have been a surprise to those paying attention), AS region reached a high number (although I was surprised it’s didn’t go current). EU region had a horrible month (another horrible month). OC and SA are behaving in an utterly predictable way.
So what is going on?
Well, the end of the DV lottery year in over selected years (like DV2018) is always a bit unpredictable. Several times this year I have cautioned people to look back to DV2015 and what happened to AF region in particular. Over the past couple of years the lottery was underselected, so the outcome was easy to predict. So – this year, as the year gets late, people are surprised to read “wait and see” all the time, but in reality that is “normal” for over selected years.
In reality, KCC and the visa office are having to juggle a lot of balls in the air. This year has been harder than most because of new security measures, the travel ban and so on. There are many people waiting for the supreme court decision, but time is running out for those people. However, it must be a factor for KCC/VO. Something, (probably the newish DS5535) is slowing up embassy work. At some embassies ( Cameroon and Cote d’Ivoire for instance), there are many people expecting June interviews that have not been scheduled and will now be given July interviews. Now with the big jump yesterday, that gives some concern.
We can see issued numbers and progress at Xarthisius’ site – thanks to him and the people that continue to help with scraping. Now, for those that read my update about quotas, they will have seen my discussing the quotas, and the possibility for a region to exceed the quotas (either by redistribution or by using Nacara allocation). I am NOT saying that WILL happen – just that it can happen.
AS region is massively affected by the travel ban. If the ban is not lifted Iranian and Yemeni selectees have little or no chance of getting their visas. Because of security delays, trhat might already be the case anyway – even if the ban were lifted today.
So – AS region will most likely not meet the quota. Those visas could be redistributed – if they know early enough. I think that is quite likely – but I was actually expecting AS to be current yesterday to enable that decision.
So, redistribution from AS could help other regions.
AF region might also underfill. In fact – DV2015 is an example of that. In that year, AF region was underfilled (somewhat deliberately) and EU region benefitted. In fact, in DV2015 there were AF numbers up to 90,000. They cutoff the region at 50,000 and left AF under quota. The reasoning can only be that AF could not meet it’s quota because of embassy capacity and processing delays, so in that case, EU was able to continue taking visas above it’s quota.
So – if KCC/VO decided that should happen again – what would they have to do.
Well first they would have to give AF region the best chance possible. AF region has been slow to use it’s visas, many no shows, refusals, and delays. To try and get the region to take as many visas as possible, they would have a big jump and try and schedule as many interviews as possible (they did that yesterday). The quieter embassies would be able to handle some more cases, other embassies might not. In some cases we would see appointments being pushed to later months (we are already seeing that and I suspect we will see more soon). So – the conditions for a redistribution from AF are being created. AF is entitled to as many visas as it can use within the quota, but if the visas cannot be used, it is better to plan to redistribute some to other regions.
Now – EU region would be the largest beneficiary of any such redistribution. Early processing has gone very fast, issued numbers are high. If the quota is strictly enforced (and it might be), there are only about 5000 visas left and EU is issuing about 2000 per month. So – the slow down of VB pace for EU “seems” to suggest they are shooting for the basic quota. They would try and reduce the pace of issuance to make the visas last until September. That is what yesterday was about.
If there were a redistribution there could be a small benefit to OC and SA region also. SA was a beneficiary of that type of redistribution in DV2017.
Best of luck to all waiting. I was in your position and I was in an over selected year. I “get” the frustration and fear. However, at this point we cannot be certain that they are, or are not, planning to exceed the quota. And THAT is why “wait and see” is the only sensible answer. For those of you that think I have some “inside information” and really know what is about to happen – I don’t. And to be clear, none of you do either. We can predict, and you might be right, but none of us really know.
Just a quick note – next week we will see a flood of newbies for DV-2019. Not having to answer “wait and see” 100 times a day would free up some of my time! Remember to include your year when giving your case number.
May 13, 2018 at 19:36
Hi, Mr Brit
From VB
“The NACARA stipulates that beginning with DV-99, and for as long as necessary, up to 5,000 of the 55,000 annually-allocated diversity visas will be made available for use under the NACARA program. This resulted in reduction of the DV-2018 annual limit to 50,000.”
Does it mean 50000 is the max? I doubt between “up to 5000” and “limit to 50000”
Regards.
May 14, 2018 at 03:27
I explained this in the quota article (linked above).
May 13, 2018 at 21:22
Hi Brit
Im eu 39000. Have I chance?
May 14, 2018 at 03:25
Not realistically.
May 14, 2018 at 02:33
I’m a 2018 DV selectee for AS and would like to get some advise from you. I’m planning to do adjustment of status since I’m currently in the US and am wondering if I should hire a lawyer to file. The process of adjustment of status seems pretty straight forward, but I do not want to risk making any mistakes on the documentations. Did you hire a lawyer when you did yours? And if so, would you recommend other people to do the same? What do you think would be the benefit of hiring lawyer?
May 14, 2018 at 03:21
Generally speaking a lawyer is either a. Unnecessary or b. Unhelpful.
Very few immigration lawyers know anything about DV. Why take the risk of someone learning and you paying them for that education?
May 14, 2018 at 04:04
I was thinking the same. Thank you for that.
My last concern is whether or not to do the Adjustment of Status or the Consular processing. I think I will be in the same situation as you found yourself, with my number becoming current next month. In your case it got very close to the end of the fiscal year and I am scared my application may not be processed in time.
However, upon looking at DS-260 processing times (i.e. https://britsimonsays.com/dv2018-basic-questions/), I am not sure which route to choose. From my research, I find that consular processing is faster than the AoS, but if my DS-260 is not processed in time to get me an interview the AoS may be better… Ugh I think you can see my dilemma. And I know you can’t and won’t make the decision for me, but is there some factor I am missing? Since you also did AoS I am feeling it is the better way..
I appreciate any comments you can give.
May 14, 2018 at 04:09
Processing times for DS260s (CP) is short. It’s your choice.
May 14, 2018 at 04:16
If I submit DS-260 now, do you think I would still receive an Interview date/time (assuming I will be current for Asia/Japan next month)?
May 14, 2018 at 04:29
It might be delayed.
May 14, 2018 at 04:43
To your last message, delayed = no interview?
May 14, 2018 at 14:10
No. Delayed = delayed.
May 14, 2018 at 07:02
Dear sir in the first entry I wrote in the address my postal box adress it’s my mailing address and in the ds 260 I wrote my home address is this a problem thank you in advance
May 14, 2018 at 14:07
Please use some of your own common sense to avoid wasting my time.
May 14, 2018 at 14:52
When I registered in the entry the first entry they just ask for adrees so I wrote my posta adress and when I was feeling the ds 260 they ask for the living adress that’s why I wrote my home address that’s my understaning and I think is OK but for kkc is that OK please sir answer me I am very confused
May 14, 2018 at 16:22
REALLY – common sense. Someone could have moved homes between the two dates – right??? Think.
May 14, 2018 at 16:41
The postal box offiice is in the postal office I never lived there I only lived in one Adress that I mentioned in the ds 260 I never lived in two places I only lived in one and I have a postal box in the postal office that I receive letter there but it is not my house please please please tell me what to do please
May 14, 2018 at 17:21
Oh my. It is not a problem. Stop panicking over silly stuff, and ” please please please ” use some common sense.
May 14, 2018 at 07:53
Fingers crossed for 15th May 2019 noon edt. Cant stop looking at my watch.
May 14, 2018 at 07:59
Same. But I’ve win last year, it would be crazy to win 2 years in a row
May 14, 2018 at 11:50
Same situation! Stressed
May 14, 2018 at 13:50
A coin tossed in the air has no idea whether the previous result was heads or tails.
May 16, 2018 at 10:49
Great point and reminder about probability 🙂 Unlucky for me the coin wasn’t gracious this time… it seems it’s rather over, as not much hope left for EU this year…
May 16, 2018 at 14:21
🙁
May 14, 2018 at 10:00
Hi Mr. Brit,
I want to thank you for your great effort for this valuable website and also for your well directed answers. I couldn’t understand one point and I need your clarification.
You mentioned me before EU 219XX is safe. It is reasonable because there are 2 more bulletin. It seems that interview will be in August if the process continues as expected. It is clear for me.
In your last post you explained that “there are 5000 visas left and EU is issuing about 2000 per month”. So, May (2000) + June(2000) + July (1000) all visas will be used.
What will happen to August and September interviews ? How many visa will be available for those months or may be “zero” ?
I am worried about visa process and feel like a little bit desperate for my case..What do you think?
Thanks for your kind support.
May 14, 2018 at 13:32
You have taken my comments out of context. I was explaining why pace had slowed and how they were trying to make visas last. Read the whole thing again.
May 14, 2018 at 16:18
Dear Mr. Brit,
One more unclear point:
May interviews already defined by April Bulletin and June interviews already defined by May Bulletin.
These two bulletin were in the regular increase tendency, because up to May Bulletin monthly average increase was around 2300 and these two bulletins were 2100 and 2250. So they are not too different with their previous bulletins and If the logic is true, regular visa issuence capacity (2000) for May and June interviews may not be changed ?
We are discussing the slowing process for now, namely July interviews and later as far as I understood. So the issuence capacity decrase will effect July and later. Is this the possible scenario for visa issuence or am I totaly in a wrong way for discussing the point ?
May: 2000 (it is already defined + regular trend + regular capacity)
Jun : 2000 (it is already defined + regular trend + regular capacity)
Jul : 350 (Pace slow down)
Aug: 350 (Pace slow down)
Sept 300 (Pace slow down)
P.S.: If it is totaly meaningles, I am sorry 🙂 please just tell me that 219XX is really safe or not 🙂 Thank you…
May 14, 2018 at 16:38
Pace started slowing down in May. Less and less cases have been made ready since March. 2,000 for May might still be right because of backlog cases, but June should see some drop off (maybe to around 1300 issued) and July as well, around 800-900. So hopefully, by the end of July there might still be around 3,000 visas left to fill the quota.
May 14, 2018 at 17:45
Pace was slowed earlier than May.
2NLs sent for March interviews were 1260.
April – 934
May – 940
June – 863
So – April produced ~2000 issued, and the first two weeks of May has produced 900 issued. So – pace is still fairly high, even though the brakes went on in April (which was 2NLs sent in February). I would expect to see ~1700 to 1800 issued in May, ~1600 to 1700 issued in June, ~1400 to 1600 in July. If the quota is held at 18300 (of which about 400/500 will go to AOS), we will only have 1000 to 1500 left after July.
EU needs extra quota.
May 15, 2018 at 14:37
For sure EU needs extra quota! I agree with your assessment for visas issued in May, but don’t you think the decelaration for June and July should be a bit more steep? It’s like a car when you hit the brakes, first it still moves with a bit of inertia (the backlog cases) but then speed drops by fairly quickly. Still, we’re talking maybe 1,000 visas up or down. Let’s keep our fingers crossed for that extra quota!!
May 15, 2018 at 15:03
Maybe, we’ll see. The thing is, some of the big countries are still not where they should be in terms of issued – so that tells me there is more to come from cases in AP or ready.
May 15, 2018 at 15:16
Regarding big countries… at the current rate, it’s more than likely that most of the Big 5 will have around 2,000-2500 visas issued to them by July. I know the 7% limit rule is 3,500… however, the U2 countries have been capped in the draw process so that it’s hardly possible they can exceed 2,500 visas each…. then wouldn’t it make sense to limit Russia, Albany and Turkey (as in “except 22,000”) so their numbers stayed in the 2,500 range as well? Otherwise, this year the Big 5 may end up taking 70% of all visas issued instead of the usual 55-60%. I know there is no rule about this, but at this rate the disproportion between Big countries and small countries this year is going to be ridiculous!
May 15, 2018 at 15:26
None of them threaten the 7% limit – but I do expect Uzbekistan for instance to take around 3000 – and they are WAY short of that right now.
Take a look at previous years. The U2 countries have been receiving about the same (capped) selectee count for years. But Uzbekistan turns those into a higher issued count.
May 15, 2018 at 19:18
About Uzbekistan, I just don’t see the math. By the end of March they had 1564 visas issued. Checking the last CEAC data they only have 229 cases left as “ready” and 44 in AP. Even if all those showed up and were all approved, and taking into account their derivative rate, they can only feasibly get another 600-700 visas. That means a total of 2,200 (which is probably going to be more like 2,000). Same with Ukraine. So, where are all the visas going? Well, Albany is getting huge numbers and Turkey and Russia are above what they usually get… that’s why maybe they should have been capped during the draw like the U2, and since they weren’t maybe it would make sense to limit the visas to the amount of the countries that were indeed capped. If they did limit Russia, Albany and Turkey in the next bulletin, the VB cutoff could go way higher and give those higher case numbers from smaller countries a chance. Of course, all of this is wishful thinking at best. 😉
May 15, 2018 at 19:21
Well that’s the point. Where are the Uzbekistan issued. Look at past years.
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2017AnnualReport/FY17AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf
May 15, 2018 at 19:39
Well, Uzbekistan had years around 2,500. But as I was pointing out with the CEAC data, I just don’t see how they could get those numbers this year. They just don’t have enough cases left or in processing to hit anywhere near that number. Well, unless all those cases are from families with triplets and quadruplets and with a 9.9 derivative rate! 😉
May 15, 2018 at 19:40
I understand. Really I do.
May 15, 2018 at 19:47
I’m sure you do! You’ve been runing this wonderful helpful site for years and are an expert at this. I’m the one who doesn’t understand how it is possible for Uzbekistan to get the numbers you are reffering to. That’s all. I trust your judgment immensely. I’ve never asked you for a prediction. I’m just bouncing off ideas with you to get your perspective. And again, thanks for answering and caring. I know you do!
May 15, 2018 at 21:09
My point is there should be some more coming. Obviously the actual numbers for Uzbekistan could be hidden at other embassies but we don’t really know. As ever, wait and see.
May 16, 2018 at 01:36
Turkey has less nearly 1000 visas according to last CEAC data file.Why would they bring such a limitation like Except:22000. None of them threaten the 7% limit as Mr Brit said. There are some years that Turkey had visas more then 1300.
May 18, 2018 at 07:13
Hi Brit,
Id like to know how you got your numbers – you say April produced 2000 issued visas in EU, and May produced 900 in the first 2 weeks.
I made a similar analysis, but I get 2080 visas issued in April and 521 visas issued in May so far. This makes a huge difference. I’ve checked all cases in state issued that had a status change in May. Am I wrong?
Thanks
May 18, 2018 at 14:21
Use the date slider bar and look at the summary.
May 18, 2018 at 12:36
Hi Steve! I think Brit maybe just made an approximation for May based on the charts where you can see how many visas were isssued from April 28th through May 15th. Now, if your system is more exact that does indeed make a difference and seems to indicate that there will be quite a steep decelaeation in visas issued in the next coming months. I think it’s likely that by the end of July we have a very similar number of visas issued as they had in July of 2015, but with a major difference which is that unless they increase the next VB considerably they’ll have much less cases ready than they did by the end of July 2015.
May 18, 2018 at 15:43
Yeah, I see now. Brit is looking at this chart, I’m using the raw data. I don’t know exactly how this tool is visualizing the data, but for 28.04. I get a slightly higher number (~12000), so I think there might by a small delay. I would assume that they issue about ~1200 cases in May.
June 29, 2018 at 00:16
FYI, my guesstimates have proven accurate thus far – and above the 1200 you were thinking at the time (just over a month ago). With a couple of days to go in June we are just below 1500 in June, and just over 3300 between June and May.
May 14, 2018 at 11:55
Hi Brit, we have our interview tomorrow. I have the following question: we have an I-134 from an American citizen with large income and all the supporting documents. The I-134 is not listed by our embassy as required. Should we give it anyway or should we only share it upon being specifically asked? We have lived in the US before and have bad credit history also, if that is pertinent. Thank you.
May 14, 2018 at 13:28
You provide the I-134 if asked.
Your bad credit history won’t affect your interview, but will make your life in the USA harder. Very foolish.
May 14, 2018 at 13:03
hello sir brit a pleasure to greet him I have been following his blog for a few months now since he left pre-classified in the process DV2018, now specifically my region belongs to SA (Venezuela) and my case is SA20181870 that possibiladades I have for the appointment or call of the embassy? for your attention and answer thank you very much
May 14, 2018 at 13:21
If you have been following for a while, you must have read “wait and see” a few times. Your answer is no different.
May 15, 2018 at 12:09
Hi Marcos.
I’m Venezuelan too, you may follow a Facebook group, “Lotería Green Card Venezuela”. It works like AA bringing support each to other (LOL). I’m high number case too, well, a little bit less than you, but in the same situation “WAIT & SEE”.
Good luck
May 14, 2018 at 15:02
Hi Britsimon
Is it adviseable for me (you know my CN 😀 ) to start gathering papers just in case or better wait for next VB?
Thanks in advance.
May 14, 2018 at 16:21
Up to you.
May 14, 2018 at 15:05
?
May 14, 2018 at 17:20
Hi Brit,
I know that there is very low chance for it but, if the redistribution happens from banned countries, Do you see any possibility of CURRENT for EU ?
May 14, 2018 at 17:48
No.
May 14, 2018 at 19:01
Brit, even if the redistribution happen, there is almost no chance that 29700 is reached, right!
May 14, 2018 at 20:09
@Lionel, You know my answer.
May 14, 2018 at 20:14
Yes, i guess. I think 297XX is really really (too) high.
Even if there is the same 2 last 2015 VB (4000 + 3000), it wouldn’t reach 29700…
May 18, 2018 at 12:03
Africa just made a jump of 10.000 in one month . Almost everything is possible. you have to wait and see
May 14, 2018 at 18:11
What is your CN?
May 14, 2018 at 19:55
Dear Brit, in order to make calculations, the number for ready cases should I multiply it to calculate the relatives ( family members) or its a number including those visas?
just want to calculate SA aprox number of visas left to see if i can make it ( SA 165X)
Thanks once again
May 14, 2018 at 20:10
Ready cases include the derivatives that were known about upon initial entry.
May 15, 2018 at 01:02
Dear Simon,
I am current for July interview. If we need to change the US address , when should we do it? Thanks
May 15, 2018 at 02:36
At the interview.
May 15, 2018 at 09:12
After they say my case is approved? Thanks
May 15, 2018 at 13:36
No. During the interview.
May 15, 2018 at 15:44
Thanks!
Besides, my husband as one of the derivatives will not come to the interview with me and kids due to need to take care of his parents. Do I need to submit proof during the interview that he has genuine need to stay (such as medical document regarding his parents’ health status)? Or that is simply irrelevant? Meanwhile, I will provide financial proof (my bank statement).
Thank you!
May 15, 2018 at 16:19
No proof needed.
May 15, 2018 at 06:10
Hi Mr. Brit
My CN is 2018EU355**. Are there any chances?
Thank you.
May 15, 2018 at 13:52
Not much, but wait and see.
May 15, 2018 at 07:45
Hi dear Brit!
is refusals EU visas redistributed monthly or they are held for some time only then distributed?
After their distribution, these visas are considered as including a quota or over quota?
after the quota is set, they will be distributed or not?
May 15, 2018 at 13:44
They are given back to KCC to re-use and do not count against the quota.
May 15, 2018 at 10:31
Bri please i want to know my status for 2019 dv lottery here is my comformation number 20194XVAMBBHAR2S
May 15, 2018 at 13:30
Wait and check later today and DO NOT give your details in public!!!!
May 15, 2018 at 10:41
Hi Simon If AS region went to current what will happen to AP cases ! Still have chance to get the visa if AS went to Current ? I’m not in ban country I’m in AP for more then 6 month still hoping for something !
Thanks
May 15, 2018 at 13:29
AP would continue for those cases. If they are resolved before visas run out (or Sept 30) they may be issued.
May 15, 2018 at 13:59
Thanks Simon then still have a hope
May 15, 2018 at 10:43
Hi Britsimon
I’ve heard today a weird story from someone who went to the dvlottery interview this week a the USA embassy.
She’s saying that she and her husband got a refusal because they have found out two registration with the same name. Her explanation to them was that her husband did it twice because of a power outage where he couldn’t save the confirmation number in the first time. But they didn’t want to understand.
Does’t this sound plausible?
I’m just asking because it could have happened to me as well.
May 15, 2018 at 13:28
Regardless of how, multiple entries = disqualification.
May 15, 2018 at 15:54
Right, but I shouldn’t that the disqualification happens at an early stage, not after winning then having the chance to go through an interview.
May 15, 2018 at 15:55
Sorry I meant: shouldn’t the disqualification happen automatically at an early stage?not after winning then having the chance to go through an interview.
May 15, 2018 at 16:17
Not always.
May 15, 2018 at 11:48
Hi Brit,
Do you know what exactly is different this year with Europe? Why ~20000 case numbers amount to so much larger number of issued visas? Is it unusually high derivative rate or high response rate?
May 15, 2018 at 13:26
Both.
May 15, 2018 at 12:21
I did a mistake filling the application form, I used my second last name, not the first. It disqualified the application?
May 15, 2018 at 13:25
If you did that in the DV entry it can be corrected in the DS260
May 15, 2018 at 12:27
Is they any chance With 2018Af290×× to receive 2Nl??
May 15, 2018 at 13:24
Yes
May 15, 2018 at 12:29
Is they any chance with 2018Af290xx to receive 2NL this month???
May 15, 2018 at 12:51
Hi Paul,
You must think about these three things:
1. you were selected while others were not!
2. your Cn is current while others wait in anguish … (high Cn)!
3. Basically, you need to ask yourself what you did, what the others did not do, to have benefited from this chance of being selected at the dv lottery?
Mr. Simon is busy enough to answer the real concern …
Sorry to tell you in these terms but that tomorrow or another day you are sure to receive your 2NL.
May 15, 2018 at 13:00
Thanks very much Sam. Will be waiting seriously any of these days my 2NL
May 15, 2018 at 13:22
Thanks to you
May 15, 2018 at 12:37
Hi Brit,
Is there any good news according Xarthisius’s deciphered datas as of today?
Meanwhile, thanks to Xarthisius.
Ps: EU287XX
Regards,
Mic
May 15, 2018 at 13:24
I have no idea what you are asking.
May 15, 2018 at 13:55
We are eagerly looking for any sign of hope that us with higher numbers (I am EU281XX) might have a chance this year…
Maybe new CEAC data has some positive news for us?
May 15, 2018 at 13:58
Wait and see…. that is all.
May 15, 2018 at 14:12
Here we go…
May 17, 2018 at 18:00
jejeje
May 15, 2018 at 14:14
Mr. BritSimon,
Hoping your day is going well, i’m really appreciate your great job you are doing to all who are dreaming to come and live in usa .in fact my number was current in June/2018 un unfortunately until this moment i didnot receive the second letter although i sent ds260 form i Jan/2018, excuse me do you think it’s normal , i have to wait and see or it means i lost my chance .
Thank you very much .
May 15, 2018 at 14:39
No it means you will probably get a JUly interview. Do check your ESC page though (which won’t work for a couple of days because of DV2019). What embassy is that?
May 18, 2018 at 06:44
Hi BritSimon,
I have the same question that I submitted DS260 for AOS in Sept, 2017 and the DV KCC fee. My number is current by June 1st, 2018. By reading your post answers and VB, I only suppose to mail the AOS Package when my number is current, and do not mail it way too early. Sorry, I am still confused with the timing of mailing even I read your EXCEL of procedures. Please advise at your earliest convenience.
a) Was I supposed to mail the package when I got their email asking to pay the DV KCC fee in Nov, 2017 (by the way, they received the fee in Feb, 2018)?
b) Do I suppose to mail the AOS Package before I will receive 2NL?
c) When should I mail the package since my number is current by June 1st, 2018?
d) Is 2NL a notification of interview date?
In addition, I read the Xarthisius June 2NL EXCEL.
f) Would you please explain how to read this example: AS;77**;2018AS77**;KBL;Ready;06-Nov-2016;29-Apr-2018;0;0;3;0;0;0;0 (region;caseNumber;caseNumberFull;consulate;status;submitDate;statusDate;Issued;AP;Ready;Refused;InTransit;Transfer;NVC)?
Last but not least, my birth country police station replies, “A photocopy of a letter from the relevant Consulate / Immigration Authority / Government Authority, which contains his or her name and clearly indicates that the production of the Certificate is required. Please understand that a referral letter issued from relevant consulate or government authority to support the purpose of application is our fundamental requirement. The letter essentially proves the request of Certificate of No Criminal Conviction (CNCC) and that the government authority is willing to receive the CNCC, which will be directly sent to it. Without that letter, we cannot process any applications.”
e) I do not have the referral letter so I cannot apply the CNCC to be included in AOS package. What should I do now? Please advise.
Thank you very much for all your supports to all the selectees over the years.
Blessings,
Bianca
May 18, 2018 at 14:04
You have not spent enough time studying the Excel on Moms post. Do that – all your questions would be answered part from (f).
For (f) you are supposed to load that into Excel then it will be clear
May 23, 2018 at 13:15
Good morning BritSimon,
Thank you for your reply. FYI, one of the package simple link on AOS Excel contains virus (when I clicked on it and that link shut off my Chrome). Please double check with the links. Thank you.
I came across your post https://britsimonsays.com/2nls-being-sent-for-july-2018-interviews/#respond and more clear for (a), (b) and (d). But when I read “Some physicians won’t schedule the medicals unless you have the 2NL in hand”, I am confused for (c). My number is current on June 1st and the Excel suggests to mail the package by the current date and not too early. But isn’t it that AOS package must include i-693 before mailing to USCIS? Do I still mail the package first and bring the i-693 to the interview?
(f) I downloaded the file and opened in Excel but all the columns were jam together. So it cannot be read clearly that’s the reason I asked for help to read them.
Thank you!
May 23, 2018 at 16:16
About the virus – the immigration forum was experiencing an attack, which I understand has been resolved now.
Regarding your other questions – you are confusing yourself with comments about CP processes. CP is over 95% of DV cases – so I focus on that in my comments. For AOS, use the link I gave you.
May 15, 2018 at 15:22
hello Brit,
Is it possible for everyone number that will be cut receive 2NL?
May 15, 2018 at 16:25
Dv2019 website down already, lol.
May 15, 2018 at 21:33
Hi Brit ,I was thinking for something…in 2015 europe had give 19.800 vissa ..before one year in 2017 Eu had give 20.000 vissa ,,,Do you think the embassy had more work before one year than in 2015???Dont forget before one year Eu had been current and in 2015 noo. If they WANT TO GIVE MORE vissa eu this year they can do current and they dont have problem that..Do you agree with me
May 16, 2018 at 01:54
No.
May 16, 2018 at 06:23
can you explain why no?
May 16, 2018 at 13:48
Wait and see.
May 16, 2018 at 15:29
You say europa can take quota,you say embassy in Eu have enough capacity ….and you dont accept ”current”….I DON’T UNDERSTAND YOU REALLY
May 16, 2018 at 16:31
Calm down. There is a big difference between getting some more people through and going current.
May 16, 2018 at 22:44
current means not all have interview,,current means same place should take vissa because not have many,,,
May 16, 2018 at 23:01
Is that a question or a statement. I don’t understand.
May 17, 2018 at 05:37
It means not is wonder if done Current,for this I said
May 17, 2018 at 05:59
Still not clear.
May 19, 2018 at 06:14
Brit maybe you’re right…Eu won’t go currret,I think have very little
opportunities for this,,but I see you are so sure and I think If go current ,you should close this page 🙂
May 19, 2018 at 14:43
What a strange outlook on life.
May 17, 2018 at 14:47
hey what cn number do you have 33xxx from kosovo here
May 16, 2018 at 13:06
Mr Brit.
In the table
“Immigrant Number Use for Visa Issuances and Adjustments of Status in the Diversity Immigrant ”
Egypt got 3850 Visas in 2017. How can it be ? Because of AOS ?
I know no NACARA in 2017.
Regards.
May 16, 2018 at 14:55
Correction :3580 visas
May 16, 2018 at 15:59
The 3850 is 7% of 55,000 – so that is the original global number including all NACARA allocation.
May 17, 2018 at 05:22
Thanks for reply.
I thought that, appr . 1200 of NACARA was available last year. That’s why they allowed to Egypt to exceed 3500 visas.
Also all the regions was Current. They gave 49k visa but does it mean the quota was 50000? Perhaps 51500 with NACARA.
Just want to learn your opinion.
Regards.
May 17, 2018 at 05:30
We can’t be certain.
May 16, 2018 at 13:35
Hi Brit,
Can you tell me, in your humble opinion, the best case scenario for Europe for the 2018 lottery? I know you will want to say wait and see but you have to know that many of us are extremely anxious day and night and just want to hear some opinion… I know that you don’t tell opinions because you get blamed afterwards if you are wrong, but I won’t take it for granted anyhow, just want to hear an opinion. Everybody except Brit are welcome to provide opinions.
Thanks!
May 16, 2018 at 13:37
Everybody else is welcome to provide opinions also*
May 16, 2018 at 16:09
I don’t care about “being blamed afterwards” because I expect people to behave like adults.
However, I don’t know what will happen – so – wait and see is the wisest response.
May 16, 2018 at 18:30
Hi euhope,
Nobody can predict the process. There is not so much time until we know the final cut-off. So, in this situation the best behavior is keep ourselves busy in order to reduce anxious. For example, keep learning English (if you are not fluent, ofc :D), thinking about future job in the USA or just LIVE and enjoy every moment of present.
We are all on the same boat. I’m 2018EU24***. Stay positive and everything will be fine.
Btw, what is your CN?
May 17, 2018 at 00:00
Hey Alex,
My cn is 25xxx, I don’t think I stand the best chance…
May 17, 2018 at 01:20
Im Eu258** aswell . Hopefully we will get an interview 😀
May 20, 2018 at 11:27
My CN 260** :))
May 17, 2018 at 07:08
Our CNs don’t seem hopeless.
Good luck to us 🙂
May 16, 2018 at 21:38
Hi Brit. i am from Azerbaijan. First of all thank you for your help. what do you think about 2018EU….. 32000 ? will they call us ?
May 16, 2018 at 22:52
I don’t know. There is significant risk. Wait and see.
May 17, 2018 at 07:55
Okay, so AS barely has 3000 visas issued so far. Is it safe to say that they wont reach their quote which is around ~8k or so? In that case, is KKC obliged to redistribute those visas or can they just say okay thats it? What was the case in the previous years, did they always redistribute unused visas or not? Also if AF maybe goes current they wont need more visas so majority of those visas will go to EU? Is this plausible Simon?
May 17, 2018 at 14:02
Why are you making points and asking questions that are already discussed in the article above?
May 17, 2018 at 11:50
Hello,
I’m EU222XX. Is it ok for me ?
Thank you!
May 17, 2018 at 16:19
You have to quote your year.
May 17, 2018 at 14:39
If the miracle happens and EU goes current, will everyone be able to get interviewed before deadline?
Is it technically possible?
May 17, 2018 at 16:21
no
May 17, 2018 at 16:37
No one is suggesting that is going to happen or is technically possible.
May 17, 2018 at 17:02
What does it mean?
May 17, 2018 at 17:15
The comment is clear.
May 17, 2018 at 17:39
I swear, i didn’t get your point. My english is not so good. Don’t expect from everyone to have such excellent english as yours.
May 17, 2018 at 17:42
EU won’t go current.
May 18, 2018 at 08:13
Any chance no matter how slim too see AF go Current? If you answer “Wait And See” I’ll understand “It’s possible”. 😉
May 18, 2018 at 14:22
Wait and see.
May 17, 2018 at 15:10
Hi Simon,
With all the hope vanished (2018EU285XX) I wonder if the DS260 should be recalled, cancelled etc. Should anything be done regarding the submitted DS260 if a person is never called for an interview? I’ll wait until the last VB before doing anything.
May 17, 2018 at 16:42
You cannot recall or cancel the DS260.
May 17, 2018 at 17:51
Brit,
One more question.
Let’s assume that they would increase the paces as given example below for the remaining two VB.
21900 + (3450 + 3450) = 28800
For this simulation, Is there any risk not to be interviewed for me due to deadline?
Ps: EU 287XX
May 17, 2018 at 18:35
Forgetting the pace question, your real question is whether a case can be current but still not get interviewed or be otherwise affected. Yes that is possible. The visa is safe once it is in your hands.
May 17, 2018 at 18:07
What are the winning chances by countries?
May 17, 2018 at 18:39
I already answered your identical earlier question.
May 17, 2018 at 18:42
Hi Brit,
I am DV2018 selectee and my number is 112xx. As you mentioned, next month there will be high chances for Asia to go current. I was planning to do CP and had submitted my DS260 in May 2017. At this point, do you think I should consider to change it to Aos as it’s getting close to the end of this year?
Thanks,
Chi
May 17, 2018 at 18:49
AOS in later months is riskier in a year like this. But it is your choice – I cannot choose for you.
May 18, 2018 at 03:59
My English is not good enough. I read the article. but I am asking again because I can not understand it completely. If a region is current, it can cause redistribution of the visions in that region.
It does not have to be. but it could. If there is such a possibility, too many visas will not be available due to iran and yemen. There is no visa country outside of Nepal.
3000, maybe more visa will not be used. The same is true for Africa.
Assume that 5000 visas are not used in these 2 regions. If the KCC wants to distribute these visas to other regions, what is the proportion of Europe? 50-60-70-80% ??
You mentioned the possibility of reshaping the article. I just wonder; the final cutoff will be released in July. But Africa made a big jump of 10,000 in July. Afrikan will not see how many visas they will use in July. How will redistribution happen in such a situation? will they act according to their forecast or past rates?
is it good news for europe if asia and africa current?
Thank you
May 18, 2018 at 04:00
visions??? i mean Visas
May 18, 2018 at 04:46
REally at this point, all you need to do is wait and see.
May 18, 2018 at 08:07
Hi Brit if a medical has a problem that you have to undergo some treatment is it the hospital that will inform you or they will give you the result and inform you at the interview
May 18, 2018 at 14:21
The doctor would inform you.
May 19, 2018 at 09:41
Thanks For the response that means if they don’t inform you of anything the result is OK?
May 19, 2018 at 15:09
Correct
May 18, 2018 at 12:36
In 2012, the 2 lasts months had +5500 and +8000. It gives me some hope!
https://image.ibb.co/gtKbfd/Capture_d_e_cran_2018_05_18_a_14_34_57.png
May 18, 2018 at 12:59
Brit does not want us to be disappointed.
May 18, 2018 at 13:10
Wait and See
May 18, 2018 at 13:12
Yes and we know now that he has a secret agenda as well
May 18, 2018 at 15:36
Really? How exciting. What is that secret agenda?
May 18, 2018 at 15:26
Lionel You should not try and compare DV2012 – it was an anomaly year (first *draw* cancelled – complete restart).
May 18, 2018 at 16:52
Hello Brit,
Do you think 2017 is ok to compare with 2018 ?
And I understand from your response that you do not expect an extreme increase last two months, right?
May 18, 2018 at 17:48
I think “wait and see” is clear. Really – that is the best advice.
May 18, 2018 at 18:14
For Everybody, only two VB’s missing and only hope is: “wait and See”. That’s all folks. Who knows the end in this trip … I hope Current to SA or 17xx …
May 19, 2018 at 06:43
Hi Brit,
I have seen the July 2nl (first batch)..so does it the ones whose case numbers are there are the selected ones?
Thanks
May 19, 2018 at 14:54
More 2NLs will be sent later in the month.
May 19, 2018 at 13:14
Hi Brit,Maybe new CEAC data has some positive news for us?eu 2915*
May 20, 2018 at 11:12
Hi Mr. Brit
My CN is 2018EU260**. Are there any chances?
Thank you.
May 20, 2018 at 15:47
Wait and see.
May 20, 2018 at 16:13
Hi Simon,
I looked at data on xarthisius site, and last week there were only 162 visas issued in EU region. Is this just anomaly, or we could see low numbers like this in next weeks? In previous weeks number of issued visas was 400-500, even more, so was this slowdown expected or not?
May 20, 2018 at 16:23
Well – there are 5 days between the updates, but even so it is a slowdown. Yes we expected a small slowdown because there were less cases made current. I imagine most cases were interviewed in the first half of the month. However, it is best to look at progress month to month – because embassies have to account for each interview slot by the end of the month.
May 20, 2018 at 23:59
Hello Simon,
I wish you doing good. I have this question . my interview is scheduled, and my status is married and i filled up my ds260 that my wife will come with me, but now my wife and i changed our plans due to personal reasons, and since our interview is outside of our country i wanna go to the interview by my self . so i have a concern about their response to this in the interview day.
thanks in advance
May 21, 2018 at 00:27
You can do that.
May 22, 2018 at 05:50
I just wonder; the final cutoff will be released in July. But Africa made a big jump of 10,000 in July. Afrikan will not see how many visas they will use in July. How will redistribution happen in such a situation? will they act according to their forecast or past rates?
is it good news for europe if asia and africa current?
Thank you
May 22, 2018 at 14:03
Read the article above.
May 22, 2018 at 15:26
Hi Mr. Brit.
I have a doubt respect at xarthisius excel files.
For SA it says 149 ready. But when I go to the file there are cases in ready since 2017 or January 2018. How can I read that cases? They sent ds260 and they did not go to the interview?
Thanks.
Have a good day
May 22, 2018 at 17:09
Yes – some are “no shows”.
May 23, 2018 at 13:49
if they want to give EU 3000 vissas by AS.This is good news for Eu,,,Eu have need for extra vissa…this vissas haven’t place to go exept Eu or no….iF THEY DONT WANT to give extra for eu where will go this vissas??
May 23, 2018 at 16:18
We will see.