The numbers are released – theses are for July interviews.
AFRICA 36500 (Last month 34150)
Except:
Egypt:27100 (Last month 24675)
Ethiopia: Matches AF (Last month 30000)
ASIA – 6850 (Last month 5950)
Except:
Nepal:6475
EUROPE – 35700 (Last month 34125)
OCEANIA – 1250 (Last month 1175)
SOUTH AMERICA, and the CARIBBEAN – 1175 (Last month 1075)
May 13, 2015 at 09:55
hi brit good morning ever africa in hope less what do you thing the final cut of please tell us estimation .my case number is af71050 do you have probable chance for interviw
May 13, 2015 at 20:06
I think that is looking very risky now. You will obviously watch and hope – but I think it is unlikely to get current now.
May 13, 2015 at 10:48
I have notic that once the ds 260 form is unlock one can not resubmit it until after one or two weeks, I experience this with my wife form and now my own form since it was unlock last Wednesday I made the correct the same day and try to submit it but the sigh and submit slot has some thing like a due on it and can not read I have just try to sumit it before writing this post just thought to share and will like any respond
May 13, 2015 at 19:50
That is the first time I heard you cannot immediately submit it – check the form and make sure it is fully completed and try again.
May 13, 2015 at 11:13
Thanks Brit for all you have been doing to help DV winners all over the world.I am 2015AF519xx and am really worried and i most tell you i have given up hope seeing the last bulletin.do you think my number is safe?and to what percentage?Thanks in advance for your response
May 13, 2015 at 19:49
THey went under my estimate by 500 case numbers (192 cases) so they are aiming lower than I hoped or there are more backlog cases than I hoped. However, I still think I would feel confident if I had your case number….
May 13, 2015 at 13:47
brit plz my case number is around af563xx do u think how much % still have chance and the how much visa they give to africa untill now ???and u sure that africa will not be current???plz answer me iam verry sterresed
May 13, 2015 at 19:40
I am CERTAIN Africa will not be current – however, your number still has a chance. All we can do is wait
May 13, 2015 at 15:41
mr simon, I tried to read the majority about your answers, I have questions !!you say everything under 60000 for AF is safe when your predictions are 37 ### to 39 ###. Now 500 of deference you have made so much doubt even for 55 ### ?? because my CN is 598xx !!! i think that the prédictions which you are renounced, they are not your prédictions in the reality. please try to report the secret !!! because 60000-55000=5000 not 500 ! please what’s happening, honestly what are they your prédiction ?? is not above 40xxx ??
May 13, 2015 at 18:47
It isn’t a secret or a matter of honesty. There are two things going on – one is the point in time estimation that 60000 and below was safe and the other is that the response rate that is still growing meaning more older cases are coming forward. As more older cases come forward it puts higher numbers at risk. I cannot know the future and have no idea when or if the backlog cases will clear – but yes – upper 50k range (such as your number) at more at risk now than they were because of what is obviously more backlog cases than I had hoped/assumed.
Now I consider predictions that the cutoff will be in the 40’s to be ridiculous comments made by people who just pluck numbers out of the sky. BUT estimating a moving target based on events that have not happened yet is NOT EASY! So – I do not have a clear defined number that I know will be the cutoff. There is NO ONE in the world who knows that yet. No one.
May 13, 2015 at 17:23
Hi Brit, it’s my first post in your blog. I’m from BSAS, 2015 winner. My CN is SA13**. Do you think I still have any chance of receiving the 2NLs? As I understand, if the deadline is 30th Sept and if they send the 2NLs around 2 months before de interview, the last chance to be current would be in july, but for the region the cut-off number will be 1175. What do you think? Do I have any chance in august or September to be current or they stop calling in july, 2 months before the end of the fiscal year? Thank you very much!!!
May 13, 2015 at 18:27
You don’t sday where in the 13XX you are – but yes I believe SA will increase to at least 13XX, perhaps 14XX by the final VB.
May 13, 2015 at 18:45
Oh, I hope so!!!! My CN is below 1360. As i see, SA is having very low cut-off numbers. Hoping this will increase at the end! Thank you Brit
May 13, 2015 at 19:27
So you need less than 200 in two months….
May 13, 2015 at 19:53
Hi. I sent kcc an email asking them to explain the slkw vb and whether they will make it to 55k.
do u think i will get an answer?
May 13, 2015 at 21:55
Nothing useful, no.
May 13, 2015 at 20:29
hi Simon,
When will you publish the new CEAC data?
May 13, 2015 at 21:56
I will try and do a mid month extract in a few days.
May 14, 2015 at 07:57
thank you!
May 13, 2015 at 20:37
hi sir my cn isa2015AF66XXX i have hope sir….be current in august sir ….
May 13, 2015 at 21:57
THat is risky – it will be September if it goes current at all. Good luck!
May 13, 2015 at 22:08
Hello BritSimon, I have SA139X, you think my number may be current next VB? Thanks!!
May 13, 2015 at 23:42
Maybe not ion the next VB but hopefully by the final VB.
May 13, 2015 at 22:29
Hi Simon, I know that you wait for 2NL’s to make your predictions for the next VB, but I don’t know if I am correct but I think that the backlog cases that will take interview slots next month would be from ds260 sent in Mars and early April as you stated that the processing time evolved lately to a shorter period. So is it correct to say that we could see only a 40% to 30% interview slots going to backlog cases for AF and therefore could we see a 6k or 7k jump in the next VB?
Thank you for your time and amazing effort !
May 13, 2015 at 22:47
Well when the 2nl are release we survey people to get their submission dates. That survey dud not happen last month because they released the 2nl over several days which was bizarre.so, we have to see more data, because it affects the estimates.
May 13, 2015 at 23:06
Please, sir. Which do you think is the most likely outcome for AS108XX?
A. August interview (Ok, maybe that is impossible)
B. September interview.
C. Never current.
Getting hopeless 🙁
May 13, 2015 at 23:35
B or C!
May 13, 2015 at 23:57
Forgive me, if you had to guess, which of the two is more likely? 🙁
May 14, 2015 at 00:14
Really – it is a coin toss between the two….
May 14, 2015 at 00:07
What about 2015AS 9037 ?
Do you think I have a chance , if yes .. please when (what month) do you think it’s most likely to get an interview ?!
May 14, 2015 at 00:13
and one small advise if you like .. you could list the range (case numbers) and your predictions for them along with the main Article, so people could stop asking about their numbers ,and stressing out in public
would also save you so much time ,because visitors are obviously increasing , and you will need only to answer to questions other than ‘is my CN safe?’ 😀
Peace out
May 14, 2015 at 00:27
Yeah I am trying to work on a post to explain that – but I am very busy in my paid job and in my BritSimon job…. catch 22.
PLUS even when I post articles like that – people post the same questions.
May 14, 2015 at 00:18
Might be August, and if not I would say for sure it would be in SEptember.
May 13, 2015 at 23:07
Why would you delete comments ?!
May 13, 2015 at 23:34
When first time posters post their messages are subject to approval – their messages are hidden until I approve or reply. Sometimes (often) that makes people repeat the same question again and again. I answer the first of those I see – and if I see the comment repeated I delete the next one. I don’t censor as such (although I could of course), but I do try to keep the questions organized. THe interface that I see does mean I will occasionally delete a message I have already replied to because what I see does not “thread” the comments like you see…
May 14, 2015 at 00:04
Ah okay!
May 13, 2015 at 23:29
BritSimon, i have a question: Let’s say That Iran APs take on Average 3 months (It could be up to 6 months) Don’t you think that the Low number so far for Asia would have rather a better chance for ROA high CNs and would push it even further than last year? there reason why i’m saying that is because if we compare for Example June VB of this year 6,850 to last year’s 8900 we see that by July (interviews) of 2014 they had 2050 more cases and say that at least 40% of those cases were for Iran this gives us 820 cases and let’s say that out of those 820 cases for Iran only 60% had to go on AP so this leads to 492 more cases up to July on APs and since those cases interviewed at an earlier time last year so they differently had better chances to clear before Sep 30 (at least in the eyes of the folks at KCC ) and after all that KCC increased the number for Asia to 13,350 for August VB.. but now with this year’s low numbers, the Iranians new numbers between 6850 and 8000 those number have less chance to clear for this year since they don’t have much time compared to last year’s same range, and giving this fact now the KCC would have 2 big jumps for July and August VBs in order to give a chance for the ROA cases since the Iranian’s total number of approved visas for this year would definetly be less than last year.
What do you think about this argument?
May 13, 2015 at 23:51
First point – punctuation helps! 🙂
Second – I have explained and posted many times about how slow Iranian AP cases = less Iran issued = higher AS final number.
2 or 3 months for Iranian AP would be FAST compared to last year and would result in a low final for AS region. 4 or 5 months would be higher chance for AS.
The other point is how many of the cases go into AP. Not all do. But an Iranian case above 6850 is in trouble if they go on to AP – and that is best case scenario.
However, Iran had 5000 selectees spread among the first 8000 – so there are enough Iranians under 6850 to get close to 3000 issued. So again – the issue is how long is the AP and how many cases get AP.
May 14, 2015 at 00:10
Wow, if Iran had 5000 selectees spread among the first 8000, and Nepal God knows how much!! What is left for RoA??!! So unfair…
May 14, 2015 at 00:19
It is based on number of entries – nothing more than that. People from any country could do the same….
May 14, 2015 at 00:01
Hello Brit. I’m realy devastated because i have build my entire year around this and all my dreams are cruched…im very desapointed. i know you have been asked for many times but i want to ask you honestly what are my chances with number EU0042XXX, with procenties? tnx for your answer and sorry for my not so perfect english.
May 14, 2015 at 00:17
I’m sorry for your sadness – I do understand.
WE need to understand why the low cutoff came in the last VB. It could be backlog or it could be a pace cooling off. Your number was always marginal and you might just squeeze in but I can’t be sure at this point. Let’s review again once we see the 2NLs.
May 14, 2015 at 01:08
Hello Brit,
I just want to thank you for all your support and help to everybody with this difficult and stressful process, is amazing the job that you do I really, really appreciate it, you have been sooooo… Helpful, I just want to ask you something: do you think that OC is going to jum 150 cases in total for the next 2 VB?
Again thank you so much.
May 14, 2015 at 01:52
I really hope to see 14 something on the final for OC. I would be sad and surprised to see it finish at 13XX
May 14, 2015 at 01:15
Hi BritSimon,
I am in high 42xxx, but I don’t have any question about that.
Just want to say that you are f… awesome! I was looking at all your posts over last year and I just want to say THANK YOU for everything.
Thank you for all process explanation,
Thank you for CEAC data,
Thank you for “Session timed out”,
Thank you for not being to much optimist, that helps a lot,
Thank you for things that I cannot remember at this moment…
It’s your fault that now finally everybody can understand how this works.
I should be sad because my number is high, and I don’t think that I will go trough, but now when I know what happened it’s much easier to accept this fall 🙂
I wish you only the best things in you life.
May 14, 2015 at 01:56
What a lovely message – thank you that means a lot to me.
The last couple of years have been tough since these have been the “not current” years – but I hope we are mostly over that for DV2016 and beyond.
Best of luck to you….
May 14, 2015 at 02:48
Hi brit!
I heard that they require original education documents at the interview, but i only have a photocopy of my diploma legalized, would that be enough?
May 14, 2015 at 05:43
That depends on the embassy – but if that is all you have it will have to do!
May 14, 2015 at 05:54
Hi Brit, Is there any chances that your number gets current but you don’t receive an interview .
May 14, 2015 at 06:03
If you did not submit your DS260 in good time…
May 14, 2015 at 06:08
hi Brit,
i currently live in China but i am from the Republic of Congo. and i can testify that this year is my year because for the third time it did pan out after consecutively playing that. i have been keeping a close eye on your website for a while now. i can firmly thank you for your unconditional effort to assist and help people during the lottery process. my case number is AF00028xxx and i have no idea in which month i will get interviewed . can you please tell me the month?
May 14, 2015 at 07:03
It is hard to be certain of the month this far out – but spring of next year roughly. We will know more nearer the time.
May 14, 2015 at 07:08
Britsimon will we see a jump of about 10k in the next bulletin for AF or will it still be in the 30’s
May 14, 2015 at 07:35
I will only know after seeing the 2NLs
May 14, 2015 at 07:34
are they going to happen to at least has AF 50000?
May 14, 2015 at 07:56
by the end – yes I think so – but not for August
May 14, 2015 at 07:38
hi brit am sory i troble to you please every thing you know you final cut of africa this year please please please tell us. you know it every think so tell us the pridiction of the next monthes .
May 14, 2015 at 07:57
I don’t know the final number. I will predict the next VB once I see the 2NL – so that is about 10 days time
May 14, 2015 at 07:47
My prediction for AF in the next coming July Vb is 44k-46k and the final one will be 58K-60k….what do u think Brit?
May 14, 2015 at 08:02
I will publish my predictions in about 10 days time
May 14, 2015 at 09:09
in 10 days, will you publish the final cut off predictions (for September) for all regions too, or only the August cut-off predictions?
May 14, 2015 at 15:08
Just the next VB. The final months get harder to predict anyway because KCC know that they do not have to allow for cases to go through longer AP timelines and then get issued – and that partly explains the jumps that can happen in the last VB.
May 14, 2015 at 09:56
Hi BritSimon
Thank you for your efforts to make useful information available to us.
This DV seems worse than that of 2012. It understands nothing. My case number is around AF 69XXX. I start to panic, but seriously I will continue to believe until the end.
If this delay is due to the delay in processing DS260 as many say, how do you explain that KCC continued to send emails to winners who knew not to go and check their status ESC. This continued until February 2015.
May 14, 2015 at 15:16
The emails did not “continue” until February – it “happened” in February. The explanation is that those cases were wrongly informed they were not winners when in fact they were winners. That was a system error and the winners had a right to know they were selected. So – it was the right thing to do.
This is nothing like 2012 – and we have known for a very long time that high case numbers would not have a chance. That was obviuous – there were 58000 selectees for 22000 visas. Not hard to figure out there was too many – even allowing for those that don’t proceed.
Now – according to DoS, this year has seen more people proceed with their cases than expected. That could be because of the DS260 being easy/free to file. I believe there have also been a large increase in the number of marriages – possibly due to website like mine that explain how that can be done. So – the 58000 increased, more of them responded, the final number went lower. On January 2 I predicted the cutoff could be as low as 68000 for AF. Privately, I feared it could be lower than that – but it was just a concern. As time has gone on that 68000 has looked more and more optimistic – but if you have been reading my comments since then you will have known that you were in the risky range.
Best of luck. It isn’t over yet.
May 14, 2015 at 16:49
Why KDU embassy did such a discrimination to Nepalese in June vb with the cut off cn upto 6475????
May 14, 2015 at 19:25
MOst likely at the request of the KDU embassy – due to the earthquake. They cancelled a week of interviews, abnd would obviously not be able to operate at full efficiency – so they would have asked KCC to reduce their workload and spread that to later months (August and September).
May 14, 2015 at 16:54
I m totally disappointed for final cut off for Nepal with 6475. I gave up for 8442. Hopeless.
May 14, 2015 at 19:26
Ye – that is a risky number for Nepal….
May 14, 2015 at 10:46
Hi Brit, I have a question here : For AF the number for visas that are supposed to be out are 22,000 .. what if they couldn’t make it with the slow pace? isn’t against their policy? I mean even if the cut-off is something like 60,000, maybe they won’t reach the number
May 14, 2015 at 15:22
They are on track to make the full quota – 22000 is the MAX quota assuming them exceeding 50000 AND including AoS cases (cases processed in the USA that do not show up in CEAC).
May 14, 2015 at 11:02
hi mr brit my case n is 60xxx whats your opinion
May 14, 2015 at 15:25
You need to wait and see – good luck!
May 14, 2015 at 11:09
. hi mr britsimon
Kentucky Center grant 50,000 visas each year to add 5,000 visa to support families. If we assume that the number of families Tohert equal to the number of visas were not granted. Various reasons .. rejection, and failure to attend etc .. must be the last figure of the last visa is between 55,000 to 60,000. I am talking about Africa. I hope to know your opinion of this
thank you
May 14, 2015 at 15:26
I don’t understand your point about the 5000 for families – but your estimate is pretty much what I am thinking…
May 14, 2015 at 16:26
am disappointed mr britsimon , my cn is af 43xxx
May 14, 2015 at 19:23
Patience is a virtue…..
May 14, 2015 at 18:05
AF 686xx still there chance?
May 14, 2015 at 19:26
A small chance perhaps – but it is not looking likely that numbers will go that high.
May 14, 2015 at 19:46
Hello
Can I edit DS-260 after completed?
Regards,
Alban
May 14, 2015 at 20:39
Once submitted you can unlock to make changes by email KCC
May 14, 2015 at 20:05
Thank you Brit
May 14, 2015 at 22:20
Do you think AS11xxx has a better chance now since Nepal is on special cutoff, and is it a good chance?
Thanks a million, Simon.
May 14, 2015 at 23:01
Sort of, but Nepal was always going to max out anyway so the real question is iran.
May 14, 2015 at 22:37
This June VB has receive the largest comment since I started with this website in October 2014.
I stand to be corrected
May 14, 2015 at 23:00
It certainly has received a lot of interest!!
May 15, 2015 at 03:22
Brit is it possible for a cutoff to be around 60000 but yet an applicant with a higher CN receive letter for interview due to the response rate of the applicant ‘s country? For example, the cutoff is 60,000 but an applicant with CN 65 or 70,000 get an interview appointment.
May 15, 2015 at 05:24
No – that is not possible.
May 15, 2015 at 06:53
I am from sudan and my interviews in Egypt
do you think AF49xxx is 100% safe
May 15, 2015 at 07:10
For DV2015? I think so….
May 15, 2015 at 08:21
hello Brit my CN is AF 54xxx have chance?
May 15, 2015 at 13:36
2015 case I assume. In that case, yes I think that number still has a great chance.
May 15, 2015 at 09:25
Hi Bri
my Case number is 2016AF28xxx
1) is my case number safe?
2) can you please foresee an eventual time for the interview via my 2016AF28xxx case number?
Besides, yesterday night i submitted my DS-260 form online, and i was a little bit indecisive regarding the location for my interview. i am saying that because i was obliged to choose my interview location and currently i live in China and i am expected to be back in my country during the month of july. and with my case number yesterday night i had no idea at when i might get contacted for the interview that is why i was unsure between china and my home country.
with that said i had to choose china or my home country. and i am from the Republic of CONGO.and since that i did not have any clue of what time i might get called up for the interview then , i instantly chose China as my location for my interview and submitted my DS-260 form online yesterday night.
3) since that i chose china as my interview location, would be possible to change it later once i am back to my country to update the all process?
May 15, 2015 at 13:34
1. Your number is safe.
2. The interview will be in spring of 2016.
3. Yes you can change your interview location on the DS260.
May 15, 2015 at 10:15
Thank you for your reply.
May 15, 2015 at 10:28
Brit please can what do you think now for AF619xx , can we still hope or ? I know your have to replay at many answer but i beleive in you prdiction. Please i need your answer because i have other project and must know if i can still hope or ?
Thank in advance
May 15, 2015 at 13:30
I don’t know for sure. You have to wait and see. In about 7 weeks you will know…
May 15, 2015 at 13:37
Thanks
May 15, 2015 at 14:43
Sir, just a little curiosity, you think you can predict the final cut-off at once the second letter distributed, or exit the next VB.
May 15, 2015 at 15:09
Just the next VB. I may not predict the last VB at all as it is much less predictable by its nature…
May 15, 2015 at 10:29
hello brit today i was looking for new information about current and i found in officiel fecebook page for dvlottery this information they say : we expect to fully utilise all dv numbers for dv 2015 you may contunie to chek yout statues at dvlottry…gov
you think this year is current? thanks
May 15, 2015 at 13:28
It means the opposite to what you are assuming. By saying they expect to use all DV numbers they Mean they expect to use all the available visas. In other words they know they will run out. No we will not see current.
May 15, 2015 at 11:36
Visa Bulletin for August 2006
Number 96
Volume VIII
Washington, D.C.
IMMIGRANT NUMBERS FOR AUGUST 2006
B. DIVERSITY IMMIGRANT (DV) CATEGORY
mbers BELOW the specified allocation cut-off number:
Region All DV Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed Separately
AFRICA 33,900
Except:
Ethiopia 24,100
Nigeria 16,000
ASIA 7,700
EUROPE 16,000
NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS) 15
OCEANIA 1,115
SOUTH AMERICA, and the CARIBBEAN 1,900
For September, immigrant numbers in the DV category are available to qualified DV-2006 applicants chargeable to all regions/eligible countries as follows. When an allocation cut-off number is shown, visas are available only for applicants with DV regional lottery rank numbers BELOW the specified allocation cut-off number:
Region All DV Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed Separately
AFRICA Current
Except:
Egypt 24,300
Ethiopia 25,300
ASIA Current
EUROPE Current
NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS) Current
OCEANIA Current
SOUTH AMERICA, and the CARIBBEAN Current
May 15, 2015 at 11:38
so anything can happen i believe
May 15, 2015 at 13:26
That set of numbers has nothing in common with this year. You cannot compare or draw any conclusion from it.
May 15, 2015 at 13:58
Now sir BRIT what is your think about my CN : AF 514** is there any hope?
May 15, 2015 at 14:27
Yes very good hope.
May 15, 2015 at 16:44
Brit, do you know the response rate for AF up till now? It was around 53%, has it increased? AF 528xx ya or nay? Anxious for your next update regarding backlog! Thanks again. Hope you have a great wend.
May 15, 2015 at 17:23
I can only see that increase after the 2NLs have been sent (within the 10 days)
May 15, 2015 at 16:44
Any updates on 2nd letter? This waiting is killing me. I need to ask for vacation, buy tickets and arrange medicals. But I don’t know when lol.
May 15, 2015 at 17:22
They will come out over the next week to 10 days.
May 15, 2015 at 16:57
Hi Brit
Is it probable AS runs out of visa in Aug or Sep?
I am AS80XX and want to apply for AoS.
Thank you Brit for your helps!
May 15, 2015 at 17:22
Nepal might hit a limit early, but AS will not max in August. AS could max out in September of course.
May 15, 2015 at 17:32
So any chance would me for AoS?
May 15, 2015 at 17:39
Hi BritSimon,
Since we should expect one or two big jumps for Asia if Nepal hits a limit early and Iranian’s APs are moving slow, my question is: if there is going to be only one really big Jump in one VB and one relatively small in the other VB, which of the remaining VBs would you expect to have that big jump for this year? July VB (Like last year) or Aug VB?
Thanks
May 15, 2015 at 19:58
I will be working on predictions and progress once I see the 2NL data. I can say this -Iran approvals are moving ahead now. So – it seems likely that Iran will take 2500 to 3000 visas. That would be bad news for high number AS cases…
May 15, 2015 at 22:11
Are you sure about that mr,Simon ,or is it just some rumours !?
May 15, 2015 at 22:33
It isn’t rumour – it is from the data in CEAC.
May 15, 2015 at 22:24
Omg, so AS11xxx is hopeless now?
May 15, 2015 at 22:32
I didn’t say that!
May 15, 2015 at 22:49
I’m sorry, you didn’t. I just assumed that we wouldn’t see a high AS cutoff with 3000 visas for Iran. A thing I’ve been dreading for months.
May 16, 2015 at 00:52
ok i guess im screwed lol ….. i’ve got close to 12XXX not quite but close………is it completely hopeless now because i’ve waited a long time for this……….but if it is, im going to start planning for other things instead of wasting time waiting 🙁 awww such luck
May 16, 2015 at 03:39
Please, can you give us a range of high AS CNs you think would still make it despite Iran getting more visas than last year?
Mine is 10,8XX.
Thanks Simon!
May 16, 2015 at 04:34
I would hope we will see at least 11 something…
May 15, 2015 at 22:46
my gut feeling (without expertise) is that it’ll probably end up 12300 or somewhere there………i know people are saying the Iranian AP are getting approvals now,
but my logic is….. if somebody who was put on AP in dec gets approved yesterday……….that means AP is still lasting 4 months……it doesn’t mean that all Iranian APs are suddenly flying out the window as some are suggesting…….from what i’ve read……..people are saying APs are getting resolved, some 3 months, some 4 months or more……….and that’s just the people from the forums
we don’t know the whole picture until we see the data……..or britsimon explains the data to us lol, even on the Iranian embassy website it tells you to wait at least 3 to 6 months if you’re on AP.
but of course im not an expert…………but im surprisingly calm……something tells me it’ll be 12300 or somewhere there………i don’t know why lol……….but that’s just my 2 cents……….take it or leave it lol
May 16, 2015 at 00:36
The Iranian cases have lagged, some because of AP. We identify Iranian AP cases as those in the Asia file at 3 consulates (ABK, ANK and YRV). If you look at those cases it is obvious there was a very slow start (as cases go into AP) and more recently an increase in cases issued. So on April 1 that number for issued was 592 cases, by May 1 that was 916 issued and today it is 1096. Perhaps 350 per month. So – purely at that pace they should get 4.5 months times 350 which is almost 2700 – and that does not assume any last month rush (as there normally is). Add onto that cases processed elsewhere (including AoS) and it seems likely that Iran could get close to 3000. That would leave 1500 to 1700 for ROA, so your number needs for ROA to take around 120 to 140 per 1000 cases. They have so far taken 118 cases per 1000 and that number is building. So – your number is pretty much the optimistic view.
Best of luck!!!
May 15, 2015 at 18:05
Hi Brit,
In 2009, Africa had received 24,648 visas in 2010: 24,745, in 2011: 24,015, in 2013: 23,607.
I think we could reach the 24,000 visas in 2015 saw a significant number was selected. What do you think?
May 15, 2015 at 20:04
No you are incorrect. The quota has changed because Nigeria is excluded. The quota for AF is 21.5 to 22k