*** Update ***
July 1, 2018
We now have the full list of 2NLs sent for August interviews. Whilst they have scheduled more cases than we have been seeing in DV2018, there is still an obvious problem.
There are 2187 interviews scheduled in AF region. The number ranges and counts of those are as follows
0 to 28300 – 613 cases (Cairo and several other embassies – presumably late submissions)
28300 to 38000 – 1345 Cases (much less than the 2300 cases I calculated would ant an interview). These cases were all current in July, and have August interviews.
38300 and above – 229 Cases (Again – much less than the 3000 cases that would want interviews).
So it is clear to me that there must be *at least* 4000 cases remaining at this point that expect interviews. KCC will not be able to schedule all those cases – so if that is correct, we will see only about half of those remaining cases that want an interview will get one. The other cases will miss out, despite being current. I have no way to predict which cases will be lucky, although by looking at what has happened for August interviews, they seem to be giving preference to cases that were current in July.
I do recommend that people waiting for interviews in AF region email KCC to let them know you are waiting. I would not normally recommend that – but with whatever capacity is available it would be better if KCC don’t “waste” appointment slots on cases that will be no shows. So – KCC might appreciate knowing who will make use of their interview chance.
I am being asked questions about why some people are current but haven’t received 2NLs, and I can’t answer them honestly without giving more info. I am concerned about how the year will finish for AF region. This is ONLY about AF region, and only affects some embassies.
So – here is the concern. Since April I have been getting messages from people (in AF region) that were current but didn’t get scheduled by the end of the scheduling month. By that I mean that June interviews should all have been scheduled by the end of April. Those interviews were not scheduled, and in some cases still have not been scheduled. The same thing happened in May for July interviews. I believe this backlog of unscheduled cases is mainly at a few embassies – and the evidence suggests a problem with scheduling at those particular embassies. It is not specific to the cases, it’s the embassy. So for instance there were many Cameroonians delayed – but if the Cameroonian was being interviewed at another embassy (say Paris for example), then there was no delay. The embassies I noticed as being delayed were Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Algeria, Morocco and Liberia – but there could be others similarly affected.
A look at the CEAC data from Xarthisius confirms the concern. It is obvious that there were not enough scheduled interviews.
Then the VB had the big increase for July interviews (from 28300 to 38000) and then August saw the region made current. Those two jumps made THOUSANDS of cases eligible for interview. If we take the real case count from 28300 to 38000 we see 4600+ cases. So – probably at least half of those (conservatively) will want interviews. So – that is 2300 cases. From 38000 to the highest AF number we have 6100+ cases – so again let’s assume half of those will want interviews – another 3000 cases. So we have at least 5300 – and probably another 1000 or so that should have been June interviews. However, through the CEAC data we can see they scheduled 1181 cases for July interviews, and so far only 1079 for August. I’m pretty sure some more 2NLs will go out in the next few days for August interviews, BUT my concern is that there are too many being left over for September. I think we have AT LEAST 4000 (probably more) left to schedule – and it is very unlikely that can be done within the timeframe.
So – how do they decide who gets scheduled and who doesn’t, if that what it comes down to. It looks like a bit of random decision. Once a batch of numbers are all current, the order in which they are scheduled is NOT based on case number. I also don’t think it is based on DS260 submission date. In reality, we don’t know how they prioritize cases to be scheduled. Cases at some embassies will have no problem at all. Cases at other embassies have a nervous wait.
No DV2018 cases can be interviewed after September 30.
2NLs for August interviews will be sent this month, and then the September 2NLs will be sent throughout July.
If you ask KCC now, they will respond that your forms are “processing”. In a normal year/month, that would mean the DS260 is not fully processed, but this year things seem different. There are several standard replies and their meaning is normally pretty clear as shown on this link. BUT, they don’t have a standard reply for the current situation where the forms are processed, but delays are stopping the scheduling.
The other impact about this last minute rush of cases is that it will affect clearing AP cases. If a case has been on AP for over a month (has passed from one month to another), once the case is cleared the embassy have to request a visa allocation. That is much harder to do when so many cases are being scheduled. The scheduled cases have visas reserved for them, so we won’t have much time to get reallocations to clearing AP cases.
I hope I am wrong about this – but my gut tells me this is going to end sadly for a lot of cases.
Questions I am being asked.
*** Note: Questions I am being asked. ***
Q:Is there anything you can do?
No, nothing. Until scheduled, the embassy don’t know anything about your case. If you contact KCC they will tell you the forms are processing status (although you are welcome to ask). There is no one else to help. All you can do is wait and hope.
Q: Is XXXX embassy affected?
I can’t tell with certainty which embassies are affected, but if you look on the data page that Xarthisius has provided there is a per embassy lookup there. Look for your embassy and see how many cases were being scheduled under 28000, and then how many are scheduled over 28000. Some reduction is logical (lower density), but there are a number of embassies with very small number of cases scheduled. You should know that the data doesn’t include a batch of 2NLs that went a few days ago – but the point can be seen quite easily.