AOK, first off, congratulations to EU and OC that both got pretty good and even unexpectedly good numbers for the last VB. Whilst many in OC region will still have missed out, EU got within a few hundred cases of being current.
Now then, AF, AS and SA. Awful news. Horribly sad. Let’s talk about them one by one.
Africa
My first thought was like many of you I am sure, that this VB was a mistake. What could possibly be going on?
The AF number is a clear increase of 5750. This can’t be a mistake, it is deliberate. For AF I believe the CEAC database is understated, so I can see that if there are even a few hundred cases that show ready or AP when in fact they are issued, that could change the VB numbers by thousands. However, I am disappointed that KCC seem to have been ignoring the no show issue for this last VB, as the previous VB seemed to suggest they were acting to address that.
Furthermore, the late submitted DS260 backlog cases are still an issue for all regions but particularly AF. DS260 processing seems dramatically improved just recently so that people submitting their DS260s even in late May are finding themselves being processed already. Those late submissions are still taking visa spaces obviously – so that is a factor that only KCC can see at this point.
Lastly, the AS result suggest they seem to be giving existing AP cases a chance, rather than prioritizing new cases. This is a reverse of what they have done before, but in a sense it is understandable. If someone has had their interview, and clears AP in September, it is a double blow to find there are no available visas. KCC may be using this low V number to reduce the chances of that happening.
We will only know their wisdom or otherwise when we see the final annual numbers. I really hope KCC does not leave visas unused!
Asia
For Asia, this is a nightmare. Honestly – I cannot understand it beyond saying that they must be allowing for a flood of AP approvals for Iran. if the quota estimates are correct, that is the only explanation. Now, as I mention above for Africa, the priority being given to closing AP cases is a reverse of previous years, but is arguably a fairer approach.
Nepal being stopped at 7150 is not such a big surprise. Nepal seems to be heading for around 460 issued visas per 1000 cases, so anyone that has being doing the math can understand why Nepal is not increasing.
South America
We haven’t spoken much about SA. The lack of increase for them is another big shock, again I suspect there is an understating of the CEAC data issued number. Again, time will tell.
Could these numbers change??
I remember a year ago questioning the same thing. SA in particular seemed like a mistake, so we wondered for a while whether we would see an update to the VB, either as a correction to the existing month, or a change in the following VB. Whilst that is not impossible (especially the correction to this month), it is not that likely so I would hate to give anyone the impression that they should wait for that. So – my heart would love to see that happen – but I don’t think it will.
Conclusion.
Congratulations to those that have gone current. It is a lottery, some experience the joy of going through, some don’t. It is awful for those just now seeing the reality and I hope my comments over the past months have not increased the burden on anyone. To those that I felt were in safe positions but have missed out (life AF numbers fro 50000 to 55000 for example) I am deeply sorry. If I could change it, I would in a heartbeat, but perhaps now more people will understand my reluctance to be pinned down on the final predictions – because this process always brings surprises, some good, some bad.
July 10, 2015 at 18:03
Thanks for all mr Brit you’r a great one.hard luck for us maybe 2017 !!!!
July 22, 2015 at 16:31
are u a Malaysian? just curious
July 10, 2015 at 18:07
So no update for VB..can we send email to kcc what happening
ther is 5000 visas NACARA or not?
July 10, 2015 at 18:27
It is out…
July 10, 2015 at 18:14
Thank you, Simon for all the help you’ve been this last year. It’s been an honor and a pleasure knowing you.
July 10, 2015 at 18:26
Thank you. Good luck for the future!
July 10, 2015 at 18:15
hi britsimon
Does that mean 2015AF63000 is not lucky this time
July 10, 2015 at 18:26
Yes that is what it means. Sorry.
July 10, 2015 at 18:16
I was EU201544067 and I do not regret at all. One door closes and 10 more open. But as a conclusion I think the US has the worst imigrant system in the world. They jave just lost two wonderful people to go there and contribute to their reallity. Thanks britsimon for not giving false hopes! Keep up the good work!
July 10, 2015 at 18:26
Sorry you didn’t make it.
DV only covers 5% of the immigration each year – it is meant as a last option for those without family based or employment based options – are you sure you can’t do family or employment based?
July 10, 2015 at 18:16
sorry meant 2015AF60***
July 10, 2015 at 18:26
yes its mean your out , i am just like you i had dream all the year then it gone away soo easy couse i didnt hit the number. i guss your not Happygirl any more sorry for that
July 10, 2015 at 18:20
What about my case numbers 30,5** from Egypt ???
July 10, 2015 at 18:23
You are current!!
July 10, 2015 at 18:41
This really ?!!
July 10, 2015 at 18:22
AF up to 50.000
July 10, 2015 at 18:24
Thanks Brit for everything..My case no is EU424xx I can not believe i am current. 🙂
Is there a probability that the interview can not be scheduled in September? I have submitted my DS260 on 19 May. Do you think I will get an interview in September?
July 10, 2015 at 18:32
I can’t be certain if they have completed your DS260, but there is a good chance as I have heard from others that their DS260s have completed very fast.
Congrats!
July 10, 2015 at 19:00
Thank Brit. I mean I have applied on 19 May 2014.
July 10, 2015 at 18:26
Hi, i have a weird situation I done I consular interview and approved but I entered in AP it’s been almost 60 days now, my case changed from AP to Ready 20 days ago, but no words from consulate in Morocco is it because the technical problem, what do you think BritSimon?
July 10, 2015 at 18:27
It might be – I would try and contact the embassy.
July 10, 2015 at 18:35
I really wish to know the explanation from kcc for asia!! My number was just 73 numbers above the final cut off!! It’s really really bad!
July 10, 2015 at 18:45
How awful…. sorry.
July 10, 2015 at 18:39
Thank you very much Mr. Britsim on for every thing you did for us.
July 10, 2015 at 18:45
Thanks for saying thanks!!
July 10, 2015 at 18:40
My case 66Af I complet Ds260 in 19 may 2014
July 10, 2015 at 18:43
@shaca….you are very funny ..thanks for response..am still a happy girl at heart.All the best in future. Mostly thanks to Britsimon for your amazing work.
July 10, 2015 at 18:46
well done for staying happy – that is the best way. Good luck!
July 10, 2015 at 19:00
My case 66Af I complet Ds260 in 19 may 2014
July 10, 2015 at 19:03
nidal we lost everything
July 10, 2015 at 18:52
Hi Mr Simon,my number not current , but Thank you very much for every think.
July 10, 2015 at 20:21
Good luck with whatever comes next for you…
July 10, 2015 at 18:52
Eu 44581 (((
July 10, 2015 at 20:20
Sad…
July 10, 2015 at 18:53
Mr brit, I’m writing this 3Rd time, please answer that what is meant by plan b? My cn is high, I lost chance this time, if I can try for other ways I’ll do, please reply, thanks
July 10, 2015 at 20:20
“Plan B” is simply a way of saying what will you do no you know the DV lottery will not provide a Green Card for you. That is all it means!
July 10, 2015 at 18:57
You have been a helpful man all this year. Knowing your website helped me a lot to understand this program. Somehow am unhappy by missing to be current,however second part am happy,i have know my fate so far. This is not the end of the game/life…i will keep entering the DV lottery each year as a plan B to my life.
July 10, 2015 at 19:07
Thank you very much sir, I appreciate all you did for us .
Its over for me AS9000 , now I am ready to work on my plan B.
Many thanks.
Yousif
July 10, 2015 at 20:17
Good luck!
July 10, 2015 at 19:09
That is a big SHOCK
I confused and I dont know what happened about this bulletin!!
Im from Iran with case number 8XXX. My number be immortal …
July 10, 2015 at 19:11
Dear Simon, Thanks for analysis and consolation
July 10, 2015 at 20:17
It is a shock indeed, Asia seems very wrong…. but this is what it is….
July 10, 2015 at 19:25
Please how about af 50600 i’m so. …
Any hope please
Answer me
July 10, 2015 at 20:15
I don’t think the number will change for AF. I’m sorry.
July 11, 2015 at 10:28
I wish your next post is update last VB 2015
July 10, 2015 at 19:46
Hey Brit I have a brother who won the dv 6 years ago…I’m not married yet.i was a 2015af522** selectee. I want to move to the states what can be a possible plan B for me please advise…as I ddnt make for dv2015.
July 10, 2015 at 20:16
If your brother is a citizen he can sponsor you but is takes years (around 12 years).
July 10, 2015 at 20:51
12 years to process the application isn’t something like 2years or so?
July 10, 2015 at 21:07
The 12 years is the waiting time for a sibling of a citizen…
July 11, 2015 at 00:27
In reality that’s not possible Mr Brit in 12 years I will be an old man probably married so ya…what other options are there beside the dv lottery ????my hopes were so high on this lottery I thought I was gonna make it…
July 11, 2015 at 00:56
The other option is employment based. Many people also move there on student visas (temporary) and hope to find a way to convert that to immigrant status.
July 11, 2015 at 09:56
Thanx a lot Mr Brit for all your advice but one last more question .i want to attend my brother’s wedding in October this year coz I’m the bestman.i had not initially applied for a visitor’s visa with the hope of becoming current before the wedding.what do u think of my chances of getting the visitor’s visa if I’m to apply and the implications of being denied as my intent to move to the states was shown in my dv application.do you think I must try?
July 11, 2015 at 17:00
Yes try. Most visitors visas are denied because the applicant fails to convince the embassy that they have ties to the home country. So – proving that you have a home, stable job, car and so on are all things that show you will return to your life there….
July 10, 2015 at 19:48
Mr Britsimon I’m from egypt cn 303**..is that mean I’ll receive my second letter in couple weeks
July 10, 2015 at 19:50
Yes. Congratulations!
July 10, 2015 at 20:13
Thank you mr brit
July 10, 2015 at 19:48
My case number AF53000
NO CHANCE FOR ME?
July 10, 2015 at 19:50
Sadly no.
July 10, 2015 at 20:01
hello Mr brit
i am current in september cn 2015AF4431x , i submit my DS260 in 28 may 2014,when i recive my 2 NL?
thank you for all.
July 10, 2015 at 20:14
About 2 weeks from now.
July 10, 2015 at 20:38
thank you Mr brit
GOD bless you
July 10, 2015 at 20:09
my case number was 8200 from as
my dream broken
god help us
i’m very sad and angry
July 10, 2015 at 20:13
I’m sorry….
July 10, 2015 at 20:15
Hi Brit
I am one of those who submitted my ds260 in late May2015 and im current in august (EU39XXX). I see you have already commented that they have accelerated the speed of processing. I called KCC yesterday and the lady said something about my case but not sure whether she said “your case is beeing processed” or “your case has been processed” and additionally she said “call after two weeks to get informed about your visa appointment.” Anyway, lets supose that she said “your case is beeing processed”, now what are my chances that i will be scheduled an appointment ? i did a quick analysis and based on density rate of 37% and response rate of 50 % and 2.2 family members per case and came to a result for number of visas that could me issued for those current in september only-thats around 1500. Based on the same formula , the number of visas to be issued for august will be around 1700. And as we already know current month (July) numbers have not got that high so the number ov visas issued during this month will be way less. I did not include the backlog as i was too lazy to fetch all the backlog cases. Now my question is, what are my chances now if i am not ready by today? Do you think that if my analysis is accurate, i will have another chance for an interview to be scheduled at the end of July ? I have also noticed that there are around 600 case numbers showing “Admin Processing” , largely from Moscow, does this mean that those cases are still in admin processing or they may have visas issued but the embassy was lazy to update the statuses ?
Thanks in advance 🙂
July 10, 2015 at 20:23
If your case is processed you will get scheduled. That’s it.
Moscow puts many cases on AP in CEAC even before the interview – its bizarre.
July 10, 2015 at 20:40
Thanks brit. My question was if my case is not processed yet . You said in a previous post that if im not ready by the middle of this month, then i can check again by the end of this month but they may have all visa slots already allocated, hence my analysis and the question about Moscow AP cases. I pray and hope that the lady actually said “your case HAS BEEN processes” but i am not sure coz the phone connection wasnt good and also did not want to nag her with questions. Thanks again man, you are doing a great job and will always appreciate that no matter what happens with my case 🙂
July 10, 2015 at 20:18
Its just as well you didn’t make a final prediction. Not even Mystic Meg would have known those numbers! Shocking stuff. My heart goes out to those who came so close. Anyways I have a quick question. I entered and activated a Canadian visa in early Dec 2014. I left 1 day later and holidayed in USA and Ireland. I returned to Canada in early Jan and began working until near end of May. The question is will i need a Canadian police check? Thanks
July 10, 2015 at 20:24
Only if you lived there for a period of 12 months or more, which you did not from what you are saying….
July 10, 2015 at 20:22
i was a winner last time, currently in US, so ppl who missed this time don’t think it as your bad luck!!, it’s because you guys are so lucky in a way. when you here only you realize how hard it is, specially with ppl who had good living standard, reputation in their home country.
July 10, 2015 at 20:27
Interesting point of view. If you get a chance, write to me at [email protected] and let me know something about the challenges you have faced. I think it is important that people understand how tough it can be!
July 12, 2015 at 12:13
Dear Chamini,
Are you from Sri Lanka, ?
July 10, 2015 at 20:29
Dear brit , I want to say thank you for your grate job ! I miss this DV , EU 437** ,but I wish the best for winners
July 10, 2015 at 20:33
Wow – so close. Good luck for DV2017!
July 10, 2015 at 20:33
The worst thing is that the U.S. President pretends he likes South American people… At least republican are very straight forward that they hate SA. The other side is just a bunch of hypocrites!
January 26, 2016 at 18:49
Lol the president has nothing to do with the lottery …..it’s not discrimination. It’s pure, sheer luck. That’s it.
July 10, 2015 at 21:00
last VB was done just last hours, So Mr britsimon i want to know at what time does the first VB of DV2016 will display and if it is displayed VB of DV2016 at what time can i get 2nd letter. thank you britaimon.
July 10, 2015 at 21:32
The first VB for DV2016 will start in one month – and the first interview 2NLs will be around 2 weeks after that.
July 10, 2015 at 21:04
Since now I know that I won’t be able to get a visa, can I withdraw my DS-260? I am currently a F-1 student, and I am afraid that the DS-260 record will be a problem when I renew my F-1 visa in the near future (due to immigrant intent).
July 10, 2015 at 21:33
I don’t know if you can withdraw the DS260.
July 10, 2015 at 21:08
Since Nepal and asia both didnt increase. What happens to prople who were current already but processed late. Will yhey still schedule september interview for Nepal and Asia?
July 10, 2015 at 21:33
Yes.
July 10, 2015 at 21:13
Mr.Simon i am not current af58800 but i want to thank you … really you are such a nice man … big thanks 🙂
July 10, 2015 at 21:35
Sorry you did not get through. Try again for Dv2017!
July 10, 2015 at 21:15
With 0 VB for AS, are they going to hit AS quota?
July 10, 2015 at 21:35
They must think they can…. That can only happen if Iran take a lot of visas.
July 10, 2015 at 21:55
What can I say. I’m gonna keep moving.
July 10, 2015 at 21:56
There is no justice in the immigration subject to two months mood did not get any chance can not be true 7650 Certainly there are mis catastrophic them rule out any new number does not have credibility with Kentucky
July 10, 2015 at 22:00
PlsPls sir can you expl that:
Section 203(c) of the INA provides up to 55,000 immigrant visas each fiscal year to permit additional immigration opportunities for persons from countries with low admissions during the previous five years. The NACARA stipulates that beginning with DV-99, and for as long as necessary, up to 5,000 of the 55,000 annually-allocated diversity visas will be made available for use under the NACARA program.
July 10, 2015 at 22:02
Explain what?
July 10, 2015 at 22:05
NACARA program
July 10, 2015 at 23:50
It is a group of refugee status immigrants that have been allocated a portion of the DV numbers. Try Google for more info.
July 10, 2015 at 22:15
hi mr.britsimon
c.n “was” AF528**
i’m just wondering there’s many many unused vissas for africa .HOW THEY’LL DEAL WITH IT
Thank You Very Much For Your Good Work
July 10, 2015 at 23:44
They must think they can fill the quota….
July 10, 2015 at 23:57
I’m current babyyyyy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
woohoooo!!!!!!!
July 11, 2015 at 00:04
LOL – congratulations!
July 11, 2015 at 00:04
Hi brit . Can KCC add any country as curent ? !!!!!!!!
July 11, 2015 at 00:06
How do you mean?
July 11, 2015 at 00:14
To fill the Af quota.
July 11, 2015 at 00:16
Thank you simon thank you for your job even am not current but its an experience
July 11, 2015 at 00:39
do you think they will make change ” FOR AS ” in the few days ?
July 11, 2015 at 00:58
I don’t know for sure. Last year I thought that would happen for SA region – it never did.
July 11, 2015 at 00:42
Hi brit
As u have mentioned above that only 460 visas are issued per 1000 for Nepal. Actually i do not understand how they calculate and its just less than 5o% visas are issued for Nepalese.What can be the reasons behind it?
July 11, 2015 at 00:59
760 x 7.15 = 3289
July 11, 2015 at 00:43
thanks for all efforts sir.
July 11, 2015 at 00:52
Dears African
i am so disappointed just like many of you , we all had pretty dreams but we couldn’t make it
i think i am doing better know cause it’s not the end of life. wish you all the best
Simon many times i was asking my self why simon doing all this help for free , i really wouldn’t do it loool
you were such nice and helpful person , god pless you
AF66148 i will alowys remember this number
July 11, 2015 at 01:00
I’m sorry you did not get through…. good luck for the future!
July 28, 2015 at 19:08
Don’t belivepeople if winner you can receiv your appointment letters
July 29, 2015 at 00:40
What do you mean – are you saying that winners above 50,000 can get an interview???
July 29, 2015 at 03:31
I hope so
July 29, 2015 at 03:46
This is a false hope.
July 11, 2015 at 00:57
And to @Britsimon = I’m sorry for cursing on ur blog _ Not including you in the previous statement mister ( had to comment to explain ) !!
July 11, 2015 at 01:03
Waleed – I had to delete the other comment. I’m sorry – I feel your pain, and I know you just want to let that anger out – so I don’t blame you, but it was a little too much cursing….
I hope something better is around the corner for you!
July 11, 2015 at 01:15
Hi
since we’re more informed with the ceac data a bunch of us as many as possible can send them emails as many as possible highlighting the no shows and that they may under fill the quota for Africa. It wouldn’t hurt we have nothing to lose. We need to send as many emails as we can. To get their attention.
July 11, 2015 at 01:28
They must know…. but yeah – it won’t hurt…
July 11, 2015 at 01:23
Frankly speaking this Edv is like ocean…very hard to reach to the depth of it to understand entirely.
July 11, 2015 at 01:28
Quite