I had an interesting question this morning from “Ilyas” who had looked at the DV data provided by Xarthisius. He calculated (correctly) that the file shows 13726 visas have been issued so far. Given that we have had 4.5 months of processing, he speculated that seemed slow progress.
Well – I have been doing this for a number of years and have old data to look back on. So – I decided to compare to data extracts I took in previous years at about this same point. So – below I give the per region numbers for the latest data file we have in DV2018, and below it, the data for February 18, 2015 (DV2015).
My issued number is out by one visa, because I excluded North America region. from both sets of data.
Furthermore, here is the Visa bulletin that covered the same time period (meaning current numbers for interviews in February 2015)
|NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS)||5|
and the CARIBBEAN
As we can see there are a few points to note.
- EU region has issued MANY more visas in DV2018 compared to DV2015, despite the fact that the DV2015 VB number was higher. This is because of the dramatically different density that I have described in recent articles.
- Similarly, there have been MORE visas issued in AF region this year compared to the same point in DV2015, and again, the VB number is lower this year than that year.
- Point 1 and 2 show why it is almost USELESS to go back and compare year to year based on VB numbers alone. That is a point I make often but seems hard to understand. Case density (along with other factors) means a number such as 30000 in one year is NOT the same as 30000 in another year.
- Asia pace is behind DV2015. I think that is obviously because of the travel ban impact (mainly Iran).
- SA and OC are roughly the same as DV2015.
- Looking at refused and AP numbers alongside Issued numbers shows that the embassies are very busy.
- Refusals are exceptionally high in AS region (10x higher than DV2015!). I assume this must be travel ban impacted cases – I would be very interested to hear from Iranians in particular as to how the embassies are processing the cases.
- Refusals are also somewhat higher in EU, and AF, but that is probably just in line with the increased number of cases that have been interviewed. Again – this reminds us about density being critical.
- Lastly – there are more cases “ready” in DV2018 than the DV2015 comparison. Again, that is in line with additional cases (density). Those ready cases are generally future interviews, but also cases where the applicant didn’t show up for the interview, or the interview happened but the embassy has not updated CEAC yet.
Now I posted all this information to provide a pulse check to all as well as a response to a specific question. I am seeing “normal” progression at this point in the year, even though the VB numbers are generally lower.
I will be studying the data as usual, and will post updates as I see trends.
February 16, 2018 at 13:08
Hi BritSimon ! What would you expect EU269xx interview in July or August? 🙂
February 16, 2018 at 15:05
Wait and see.
February 16, 2018 at 15:27
You are optimistic Index, I like that !
February 16, 2018 at 18:04
Optimistic? If it was September, the above EU3XXXX would have no chance at all.
February 16, 2018 at 18:18
Be mentally prepared to not have an interview… 🙁 Because I think you are on close to the safe line.
February 16, 2018 at 18:33
Please stop making people feel nervous just because you don’t understand the process.
February 16, 2018 at 18:19
I think 33XXX is history. That makes me sad to write this, as I’m 29XXX, but… Let’s wait, it’s better for us to be prepared to all eventualities, even sad ones.
February 16, 2018 at 18:24
honestly lionel, you annoy me, really. your number is fine and your weird concerens are nonsense.
February 16, 2018 at 19:00
Omg …please do not make people nervous . simon is right !
how do you know that the number Is history ?? Do you have any information or you just tell stupid words
February 16, 2018 at 19:04
dont listen to him, moni. he previously asked if it was really okay to provided documents in french (he is from france), knowing that documents need to either be provided in english or the langage of the country where the interview takes places… see, thats how little he knows, so just dont listen
February 16, 2018 at 19:16
You are right roxy but I just write because he really annoying me..people just write even when they do not have enough informations just to write something before they think
February 17, 2018 at 04:11
Is that mean that that the rythme of VBs will increase in the comcom months
February 17, 2018 at 18:02
Dear Brit. Thanks in advance for all. I just wonder, is there a significant change in response rate in recent months compared to average of previous years?
February 17, 2018 at 18:42
February 17, 2018 at 21:59
Then the bulletin pace for eu is mostly related with the densities if im right? Thanks.
February 17, 2018 at 23:00
Densities AND the change made to DS260 processing, which meant fewer (almost no) cases were current but waiting their DS260 to process. IN previous years that waiting period (called backlog) meant the VB pace had to go faster to make up for the cases not ready to be scheduled.
February 20, 2018 at 12:08
Could you point me to the article that talks about the different EU density this year or explain briefly why that is different this year? Thanks
February 18, 2018 at 11:43
Is changing us adress in ds 260 cause the delaly
February 18, 2018 at 16:14
No – as you must have seen me answer 1000 times, and could have read in the FAQ. Please be careful to respect my time.
February 18, 2018 at 15:24
Hi dear Brit. Thank you for all. We apreciate you. Danke schöne. I am from Austria.
1. My case number 2775X. On what month my interview? Predict it please.
2. When will you be studying the data and when will you post updates as you see trends?
February 18, 2018 at 16:06
1. Wait and see.
2. I post often. The post above is one such example.
February 19, 2018 at 08:15
ok thanks. Sorry for grammar mistakes.
1. Is my case safe?
2. How do you think: will visas ends early?
February 19, 2018 at 15:21
Please link follow up questions by clicking REPLY, so I don’t have to search for your earlier message.
Also – please read my articles and the FAQ rather than asking questions which I have already explained.
February 19, 2018 at 08:44
looking at the high rate of denyal in the African region, and also looking at the speed as compared to the previous years, DO U IN ANY WAY THINK AFRICA CAN GO CURRENT UP TO 52000 BY MAY THIS YEAR?
February 19, 2018 at 10:06
Freeman as your name implies please make Brit a “freeman” by reading his posts or better still check the frequently asked questions, u will get the answers to your question, in anyways like brit always say “wait and see”.I am also from AF region with a high case number so I think we better wait n see,but obviously there is no way 52k can go current in May,
February 19, 2018 at 15:10
February 19, 2018 at 15:15
Use some common sense. Read the articles I have spent time writing.
February 19, 2018 at 15:47
How many CASES NUMBERS SA will be scheduled to next bulletin? Any prediction? Or maybe will have the same behavior that DV 2015?
February 20, 2018 at 02:18
Look at the pace for the last few months. That will continue.
February 19, 2018 at 16:26
How long does KCC need to process DS260?
February 19, 2018 at 16:45
Allison, Simon recently replied in one of my question that in this period of the year there is usually less backlog and processing is a bit quicker, probably within weeks instead of months. I hope this helps, but maybe Simon will be able to provide you with more details though.
February 20, 2018 at 02:17
Not long. Just a few weeks.
February 20, 2018 at 05:20
Hi Ben and Brit,
Thank you for answering my question?
It helps me a lot.
February 19, 2018 at 20:31
(1) why is it that you say that the Asia pace is slow? Adding up the numbers seems to indicate that significantly more cases/visas have gone to the embassies in 2018 than in 2015, and that the number of cases dealt with (issued+AP+refusals) is roughly the same for both years. Are you only referring to the pace of visa issuance? From a common sense perspective, I would say that as long as the overall pace remains decent, the less visas granted the better it is for people down the line, no?
(2) There was much debate in the past about the new photo rule for FY2018- does it appear to have any actual effect?
Ramblings that can be freely disregarded:
Taking apart the data for Asia seems to make the effects of the ban rather conclusive –
numbers (for 2/16/18) are
Total: Issued 1756, AP 663, Ready 1694, Refused 651
Nepal: Issued 1102, AP 135, Ready 342, Refused 38
Iran (est.): Issued 225, AP 275, Ready 783, Refused 441
ROA (est.) Issued 429, AP 253, Ready 569, Refused 172
Even without direct evidence on how banned cases are treated, there are much more AP, refusals and ready cases for Iran, and the same holds true for the ROA, which seems to be very much effected by the ban, and possibly also by the anti-Muslim sentiment that animates the ban. It seems like many people don’t go through with the interview (or have the interview and remain on Ready), are refused, or put on AP (I would guess that many of the latter are cases of people with dual nationalities, that have a chance of clearing the AP).
If this is so, KCC seem to be dragging their feet a bit with the VB pace for Asia, given that Nepal is anyway limited and that the embassy workload for the ROA seems to be no greater than it was last year.
Still, the lack of evidence on how banned cases are dealt with is puzzling.
Anyway – Thanks!
February 20, 2018 at 02:07
1. Actually I don’t say that – but others do. Normally people refer to VB pace and say THAT is slow – but since density is high, issuance pace is fine.
February 20, 2018 at 13:58
Brit, what is current? – appointment of the interview date based on the date of the referral DS-260? What do you think – is it possible in DV-2018? Thanks.
February 20, 2018 at 15:02
February 20, 2018 at 20:28
Hi Brit just wish to ask from your knowledge of dv lottery do we still have the chance to make it through. Thanks
February 20, 2018 at 20:52
How can I possibly know how to answer that. I don’t know anything about you – or any details of your circumstances. Be clear, otherwise you just waste your time and mine.
February 20, 2018 at 21:12
Sorry Mr Brits am from Cameroon my case is AF259000 pls do we still have hope to go through this year ,2018 my bp is high wen I look at last year and the political issues in us thanks
February 20, 2018 at 21:17
So what political issue is affecting you? There is no ban on Cameroon. Your number is obviously fine.
Do you just want me to say something reassuring to make you feel better?
February 21, 2018 at 13:04
Hihihihi- sure he does.
February 21, 2018 at 18:53
Hi dear Brit.
In this post for Europe 5420 cases are Ready.
1. This is for what months?
2. How do you think In which month visas will be ends for Europe.
My case number is EU2775X and I I’m afraid that it will not turn out for me.
February 21, 2018 at 19:08
Your number is fine. Show some patience.
February 21, 2018 at 19:38
ok thanks ?
In this post 5420 cases are ready. This is for what months?
February 21, 2018 at 20:19
That was up to March interviews.
February 21, 2018 at 20:53
Sorry for the trouble.
But when the holes will appear more and more?
February 21, 2018 at 21:58
Go have a look at the data linked above.
February 21, 2018 at 23:49
I have a question that I wouldnt mind hearing your oppinion on. Regarding the table you posted above, we can see a higher refusal rate in Europe in 2018, however, as you correctly stated, that might just be because of increased visas issued in 2018 until this time of the year. However, putting that in %, in my calculation, adding the numbers of cases processed together and leaving out the “ready” cases, I come to the result that 3.9% of scheduled cases were refused in 2015 (as of feb), and 8.4% in 2018 (as of feb). That would be a much higher refusal number up to now. Can I be correct with that math?
February 21, 2018 at 23:53
sorry. That % number for 2018 felt way to high. Doing the calculation again, it is actually 6.9%. Still higher!
February 22, 2018 at 00:03
Yes the refusal rate could be higher. As I have explained before, the rates of various factors (including refusal rate) varies by country. The density has changed due to a different number of entries in various countries. So – the relative mix of processed cases changed, and therefore other rates such as refusal rate could change. However, as I have also explained, it is too soon to know the exact impact of that. Are we seeing higher refusal rates because more cases are going to be refused by the end, or is there simply a difference which will change later. I don’t know the answer to that – and if I don’t know – I am certain no one else knows.
Again – “wait and see”.
February 22, 2018 at 11:58
OKay, thank you. I still have one more question. When you were adding up all these rates to predict a cutoff, did you consider the overall “avrage” refusal rate from previous years, or did you already take into consideration a diffrent refusal rate due to the diffrent relative mix and therefor a change in refusal trends?
February 22, 2018 at 12:06
its a bit difficult for me to explain what i mean.Basically, what I am wondering is, assuming that Austria has less refusals then Albania for example, and in 2015 there were 5 winners from Austria and lets say 8 from albania.
In 2018 we got 8 winners from Austira, and 16 winners from Albania.
Assuming that refusal rates in Albania are higher then in Austria, shouldnt there be a diffrent refusal rate this year? Or is that factor already inclued in the calculation you originally made?
February 22, 2018 at 17:09
Surely this is already clear! I keep saying that it is impossible to know the precise cutoffs because each year is different and this year is especially different due to the different entry ratios between countries and therefore different behavior.
February 22, 2018 at 17:07
I explained that. I used cases to issued ratios. That takes into account everything – but at a regional level.
February 22, 2018 at 17:37
“at a reginal level” in this case EU level, not country level? Okay, thats all I asked to know. of course I know that it is impossible to know precise cut offs, but that also wasnt my question. I just simply wanted to know whether the case to issued ratio you used was country specific or regional. Since there is such a dramatic change in entries it must result in diffrent relations. Therefor the case to issue ratio can change. If you had used country specific case to issue ratio, the change might be lesser. So, I just wanted to understand the method you applied.
February 22, 2018 at 17:50
I specifically described it being at regional level where I explained the method in my original post.
February 22, 2018 at 17:58
relax, brit. you’ve might been doing that for the past several years, but I’m doing that for the first time. Just because you posted something in January, does not mean that at that time, that particular question arised. Patience!
February 22, 2018 at 18:02
LOLOL – I am relaxed. I just assumed you would have re-read the article you were referring to rather than asking me the question. Silly me.
February 22, 2018 at 09:24
Dear Mr. Brit,
I tried to unlock my DS260 , but I received auto reply , and still unlock not happen, how it can I achieve it ?
February 22, 2018 at 16:58
Patience and yoga.
February 22, 2018 at 18:30
Hahaha both does not work for me ! 🙂
February 22, 2018 at 18:52
Caught Brit being in a good temper cracking jokes around. Yippee, love it! 🙂
February 22, 2018 at 19:29
well if this pace and density keep going like this i think the max level we wiil see in the julys bulletin may be 29xxx.
However there is still chance if the density is larger in the earlier numbers and lesser in high numbers. If this assumption is correct, then numbers going to increase in 5000 in the forward months. What do you think about it? Also in the xarthius charts it seems there are more holes in the latest numbers which supports my analysis. what do you think?
February 22, 2018 at 19:33
Btw my number is 33xxx thats why i keep looking at the charts 🙂
February 22, 2018 at 19:37
I have explained this many many times, including in the article above. You have the data to look at. There is clearly a reduction in density. It’s not a “chance” it is certain.
February 22, 2018 at 22:08
You will excuse me if my question has been asked and answered.
1.Can one be put on AP due to medical results? Lets say, the applicant has a TB and he is taking the medicine.(As little as I know a patient with TB who is taking medecine for at least 3 weeks is not contagious) Or whether you are on medicine or not as long as you have TB you are automatically denied?
Once again, thank you for your help to all of us.
February 22, 2018 at 23:03
1. Yes the medical can cause AP.
February 23, 2018 at 17:27
in january issued visas for uzbekistan 350!! oct-nov-dec-jan 920… maybe feb more 200 visas 1120 ??
I think Uzbekistan will be the first country to approach the country quota.
February 23, 2018 at 17:31
There is no country quota. There is a cap of 7% – is that what you mean?
February 23, 2018 at 22:16
referring to the number of visas issued in the first 5 months, I mentioned that Uzbekistan would be attached to the quota of 7%.
February 23, 2018 at 22:39
Again. It’s not a quota. It’s a cap. There is a difference. The cap covers EVERY country. If it were a quota, and every country had a QUOTA of 7%, we would only have 14 countries to reach 98%.
Now, it would not be a surprise if Uzbekistan gets close to the cap. Their success rate is FAR higher than Ukraine for instance.
February 24, 2018 at 11:46
ok brit, thanks
February 23, 2018 at 18:44
Hello Brit,1. for my newborn’s birth certificate that I have to upload, do I have to translate it into English? 2. The I-134 form, for a family of 3 what must be the sponsor’s annual income?
February 23, 2018 at 19:00
1. Not for the upload. As for the interview – follow the instructions.
February 25, 2018 at 07:32
Good day and a blessed Sunday to u sir brit,I must start by appreciating your time u put in so we are satisfied with our dv questions.sir I have a question for you that I really want u to handle plz
1- sir my cousin is a winner of the dv 2018 and married with 2 kids of both less than 10yrs old but on the date of him playing the DV he said he was married but with no kids.now I read on the U.Sembassy in Cameroon’s website that if u don’t declare your kids on the day u were playing dv that’s automatic disqualification, so brit what can he do to remedy the situation?
2-Should he unlock the DS 260 form and add up the infos of his kids? OR
3 – should he just take the chance and attend the interview and maintain that he doesn’t have kids as was the case when he was playing the DV?
4 – lastly sir brit if at all he poses like he doesn’t have children and comes out successful with the interview and he and his wife are given the visas,what is the possibility of bringing the children to the U.S later to join up with them
As always brit I appreciate the time u put forward in reading patiently our worries and bringing a suitable answers to our questions, once again thanks very much in anticipation
February 25, 2018 at 15:40
February 25, 2018 at 08:38
After traveling to the USA for activation, can the principal winner travel back to home country leaving the derivative back in USA?
February 25, 2018 at 15:41
February 27, 2018 at 13:46
I remember last year in June I ask you when can I have my interview with case number AF41803, and you told me same period next year which is this year. So
1) Do you still affirm that my Case will. Be interview in June??
2) Can Case number AF 41803 go current in May??
February 27, 2018 at 14:27
1. No. It will be later
March 3, 2018 at 12:32
Hi Brit,I was not selected for DV 2018. Since a lot of people are being rejected is there a possibility that there will be another draw for 2018 applicants. If yes, when can that happen?
March 3, 2018 at 14:44
March 4, 2018 at 19:51
Hi dear Brit. Thanks for your help. I appreciate you.
1. My case number is EU252XX. Please predict me on what month will be my interview.
2. Until then, the visa will not end your way.
March 4, 2018 at 20:07
Wait and see.
March 4, 2018 at 20:20
1= Can i rescheduled before getting 2nl?
2= what is the risk for rescheduling u have said several times recsheduled is more risky am very confused about it
Thank you bro
March 4, 2018 at 21:39
2. Various risks. I don’t advise it unless unavoidable.
March 5, 2018 at 15:10
I and my wife had our interview on March 01, 2018. We were told “Congratulations, the visa is approved. You will receive your visa from the DHL office after a week “. She gave us white paper which is to be taken to DHL office to take the passport with the visa. When we check the visa status online it says Administrative processing.. .. what does that mean? Do they contact us again in such a case?
March 5, 2018 at 16:49
Often a case shows AP for a couple of days while the visa is being printed. However, if the AP status remains for longer than 2 days, it means real AP – and the time of that varies.
March 7, 2018 at 17:20
I was checking the CEAC Data and realized something interesting. Well in March bulletin, cut off number announced as 15,950 for EU. But in the ceac data, last ready case seems like 17000 on March 3. How can this happen? I mean can current numbers pass cut off number if there are some reasons like high no show rate?
Also according to my calculations, if this density keeps up, due to high rate of holes in the last months, numbers will rise and reach 36.300 on September. This number can change by the density level but max +3 -3 thousands low or high may be in my prediction. Any comments? thx.
March 7, 2018 at 17:23
that has been discussed before. Cases with 17k are cases that are procesed in the EU, but from other countries. On the visualization graph from the data, it shows 17k even when filtered correctly, this is an artifact. Also, pace is not the problem. The question is if there will still be enough visas to reach 36k?
March 7, 2018 at 17:24
This has been discussed before – https://britsimonsays.com/ask-questions/comment-page-204/#comment-104427
As for predictions – I have explained my thoughts in detail in several previous posts.
March 10, 2018 at 18:43
What’s new about next VB? How much will?
March 10, 2018 at 19:18
It will be released next week – so wait and see.
March 11, 2018 at 12:11
Are the DV2018 similar with DV2007?
March 11, 2018 at 15:09
March 17, 2018 at 16:38
Hi Brit is CN 2018AF34+++ still safe given the slow pace?
March 17, 2018 at 18:51
March 17, 2018 at 18:55
They mentioned me on the Yello card they give me after interview and said ur time for visa will be finish after spetmeber. So now my visa is in administrative process so if the administrative process not finish till September then will cancel the visa
March 17, 2018 at 19:03
Yes – cases can ONLY be approved up to September 30th.