The numbers are released – theses are for June interviews.
AFRICA 34,150 (Last month 32,700)
Except:
Egypt:24675 (Last month 20,900)
Ethiopia: 30000 (Last month 25,750)
ASIA – 5950 (Last month 5275)
EUROPE – 34125 (Last month 30,300)
OCEANIA – 1175 (Last month 1075)
SOUTH AMERICA, and the CARIBBEAN – 1075 (Last month 1025)
Just as a matter of interest – these were my predictions from my 2NL analysis a couple of weeks ago. I pretty much nailed it – although EU is very slightly above my estimate (by 126 CNs!)
AF – 34XXX – 35XXX
EU – 32XXX – 33XXX
AS – 58XX – 59XX
OC – 1150 – 1200
SA – surprise!
If your number has become current AND your DS260 is processed, then you can expect an email in about 7 to 10 days from now. The email doesn’t have the appointment details but simply prompts you to check the ESC website where your 1NL (selected letter) will have been replaced by an appointment letter.
If you do not understand how to understand the Visa Bulletin – please read this – How to read and understand the visa bulletin.
Also please see the historical visa bulletin numbers here to compare progress this year to previous years.
April 14, 2015 at 03:15
Woooow finally.. my CN is current 🙂 🙂 🙂
Yes Brit – your predictions were very precise in the last analysis
Awaiting for 2NL ….
April 14, 2015 at 04:04
dear brite what about Egypt AF272XX is there any hope ?
April 14, 2015 at 05:07
Yes lots of hope!
April 14, 2015 at 08:24
What do you think the interview is in July or August ?
April 14, 2015 at 16:55
Most likely July.
April 14, 2015 at 04:22
At AF58xxx it shall be well
April 14, 2015 at 04:24
Hi britsimon,
what do you think?
cn 755*
from Nepal, Is there any possibility to get 2nl, if then when or should give up.
April 14, 2015 at 05:08
Yes, pretty much certain. August interview.
April 14, 2015 at 05:16
Simon u answered all question except mine….. I am just panic ….is there any chance to get 2NL or not…… I am loosing my hope…. Thank u….
April 14, 2015 at 05:29
This is again a terrible news for AF with higher CN but Egpty and Ethopia. I can see cut off for Eqgpty and Ethopia are jumping higher while AF in general are jumping slower (only 2000). I am wondering if by August AF region, except Egpty and Ethopia with higher CN number, say 45XXX will be able to get an interview. This could be only possible unless the cut off number for the named two countries will stop as it is today. Brits, what mechanism which made you to be sure that AF with higher number, say 50XXX will get a slot in August or September from this trend
April 14, 2015 at 16:45
Forget the “trend” that is not how it works. Simply a case of quota, interview slots and cases that have been processed. The Final will be higher than 50K. I think numbers up to AF60k can consider themselves safe.
April 14, 2015 at 05:55
Thank you for all the great information! Any thought on AS 1080X? Would it be still a safe number even though this year has been so slow? I’m from Japan.
April 14, 2015 at 16:46
Slow or fast is not important. The pace is spread out deliberately.
AS108XX has a good chance still – the final fate rests on Iranian APs.
April 14, 2015 at 05:56
Hi Simon what about africa AF77××× what do u think?? Is there a chance
April 14, 2015 at 16:47
That number has always been in a risky range as I have always said. Given where we are now, it seems less and less likely that we will see numbers that high….
April 14, 2015 at 05:58
Same concern, what will help AF to jump to 59xxx by Sept.
April 14, 2015 at 16:47
It just will.
April 14, 2015 at 06:14
Brit
am really geting Scared
whats the hold up.do u think am save with the CN AF***59158
AM REALLY A LITLE WORIED
April 14, 2015 at 07:06
Hi Simon,
I’m Hesam from Iran.Your prediction was very fantastic. Well, we had a jump about 675 case for Asia this month. So, I see the pace is a little better that before. I hope for my case to be current in a good time. I mean, based on my case(82**), my interview will be around August. Am I right? I’m aware of AP problem, but my concern is about running out of visas for Iranian selectees. Do you think it would be occur this year?Today, I’m a student of art and I’m exempt from military service and I have never worked before. How do you think of my case?
Sincerely
Hesam
April 14, 2015 at 07:28
AS 85XX Not from nepal. is it safe? when can expect interview
April 14, 2015 at 16:49
Yes 100% safe. August interview.
April 15, 2015 at 03:39
I guess this respond was my respond, too. Isn’t it?
April 14, 2015 at 07:44
Hello Britsimon, thanks for all…
What do you think about EU406XX?
April 14, 2015 at 16:49
THat number still has a chance!
April 14, 2015 at 17:31
Thank you to answer 😉
April 14, 2015 at 08:06
Hi Brit should I give up with CN AF 78500.?
April 14, 2015 at 16:50
I don’t know that you should “give up” but certainly have a plan B.
April 14, 2015 at 08:17
Brist AF 76XXX am i safe
April 14, 2015 at 16:53
No, not safe. You still have some chance – but very small.
April 14, 2015 at 08:39
Hello
When do you plan to get the new CEAC data extract?
Thank you
April 14, 2015 at 08:42
And could you please extract more CNs than those are current, like you did once…?
My dream (and I guess not only mine) is to see the situation until EU38000. Please….
April 14, 2015 at 17:13
If you look at the Jan 1 extract it has the whole range. They have not changed, so I dont spend the extra time re-extracting them.
April 14, 2015 at 16:54
THe CEAC extract was broken by a change on the government site – I am re-writing it now.
April 14, 2015 at 09:00
HI BRITI, thank very much for all that. Now according to you what can be the final cut off for Africa. With this number we going to give up or hope to continue. because my CN AF00071xxx
Best regards
April 14, 2015 at 11:21
Hi admirsl
i hope that to you and my CN is around you AF00077×××
April 14, 2015 at 20:12
You have a small chance still – but some risk. all you can do is watch and hope.
April 14, 2015 at 09:09
salut Brit
Merci pour le boulot formidable que vous accomplissez !
Ai-je encore une chance pour une interview AF655xx?
April 14, 2015 at 17:15
English svp.
April 14, 2015 at 18:05
salut Brit
Merci pour le boulot formidable que vous accomplissez !
Ai-je encore une chance pour une interview AF655xx?
-(translation) :
Hello brit
Thank you for the amazing work that you’ve been doing
Do I still have a chance to get interviewed AF655xx?
April 14, 2015 at 20:10
Thank you for the translation. Yes you still have a chance, but some risk too. You can only watch and see what happens.
April 14, 2015 at 10:03
hello brit
my case nember is 563xx
What is the last number expects to reach him in the last bulletin?
April 14, 2015 at 20:14
I don’t know precisely – but your number is safe.
April 14, 2015 at 10:30
Hello evrybody say me CN AF490## is chance? if yes when?
April 14, 2015 at 20:14
Yes safe – interview in August
April 14, 2015 at 10:47
i think i got it now … af55k is safe. whatever the fainal cutt off for all regeions …am i right mr.brit ? .but before afew years the fainal cut off was less than 50k ..can that happend again ?
thanks ..and am sorry for bad english
April 14, 2015 at 13:45
Hello mister Simon .. I admire your smart predictions ..
any thoughts about AS10950 !?
it seems a bit complicated to me since they need to start adding more than 2000 a month to reach my CN
April 14, 2015 at 20:15
Still has a good chance – depending on Iranian AP cases.
April 14, 2015 at 17:06
hi dear britsmon ,my casenumber is near 6900 from asia ,do you think in the next month I will be current? thank you.
April 14, 2015 at 20:15
Might just squeeze in, if not, the following month for sure.
April 14, 2015 at 17:34
Hi SImon.
Do u think my EU39100 can make it into August?
Thnks.
Michael.
April 14, 2015 at 20:07
Yes.
April 14, 2015 at 18:01
do u think AS149XX is safe???!!
April 14, 2015 at 20:09
No. I’m sorry – I think that is too high.
April 14, 2015 at 19:47
hi sir
what do you think next AF visa bultin how it will be ?
thank you
April 14, 2015 at 20:12
I will publish predictions after the 2NLs go out.
April 14, 2015 at 21:11
Britsimon.. Hi..
If Africa will get less visas this year, will this somehow influence the number of visas Europe will receive and the highest EU case number that will get a visa?
What should happen for Europe 43xxx case numbers to become current this year? Is it possible? I know the chances are very small but theoretically?
April 14, 2015 at 22:35
Visas don’t re-allocate between regions if the regions have enough demand (which they do).
EU43XXX is risky – and does not depend on AF in any way
April 14, 2015 at 21:38
Hi brit do you think that af67500 still have a chance or rsky range very afraid ?
April 14, 2015 at 22:35
risky range, but still has some chance.
April 14, 2015 at 21:55
Hi simon what about AF64XXX??
Regards.
April 14, 2015 at 22:36
Some chance still, but not 100% safe
April 14, 2015 at 21:55
Hi Brit, thank U for the info. I would like to know if AF7529x still stand a chance. Although the cutoff for Africa is 34,150, is it possible for CN above that figure to receive 2NL? That is if those applicants presented their DS 260 early? Thank U Brit and I look forward to your swift response.
April 14, 2015 at 22:37
Any case can only be processed if it is under the VB number published. So – 75XXX cannot process now and is in a risky range. Only time will tell.
April 14, 2015 at 22:02
HI,thank you again for your great work,what make you think VB AFRICA will progrees to attend around 50k to 60k for next three last VB taking in consideration the last two VB the progress was around 4k ?
April 14, 2015 at 22:37
Yes.
April 14, 2015 at 22:46
For AS, are we expecting to see a jump in Aug and a small increase in Sept?
Or just a big jump in Sept?
April 15, 2015 at 06:45
I expect jumps in both months…
April 15, 2015 at 01:21
Dear Simon
This is a real long painful tale !!!
You told me before that my CN AF59*** is safe , with this Very Very slow progression in the recent bulletin , What would you say about my CN.!! Safe ? % ?
Deeply thankful for your help !
April 15, 2015 at 06:49
Yes – still safe. The progression is exactly what I predicted….
April 15, 2015 at 04:17
Thank you Brit for your good job. Africa is progressing at a very low pace, are there any countries that are going to max out so that we can witness an increase in the pace, I have also noted that the density is now more or less constant from cn 31000 and above ie about 350 in every 1000, does that have any effect in the progression rate? I consider my cn (58xxx) safe following your continued reassurance but kindly shed some light on how we are going to arrive there. Your predictions are very correct and I have a lot of faith in the information you continue to give. Good night.
April 15, 2015 at 06:53
Egypt will make out (and be limited), no other AF countries will do so. Egypt cases stop before 31XXX so that is why you see less density. The density (and the response rate) is what will allow faster progress on the VB, AS LONG AS the interview slots are not taken by backlog cases. I will publish new predictions after the 2NLs – because that is when I can form an updated idea of how many interviews for July will be from backlog.
April 15, 2015 at 05:57
Hi Simon,
When do you think AS11,4XX will become current ?
April 15, 2015 at 06:55
September, if at all.
April 15, 2015 at 08:51
Do you think that Asia cutoff fall few number short of 11000?
April 15, 2015 at 13:44
To fall short of 11000 that would require Iran to receive more visas than last year – and that depends on the speed of AP processing for Iran. That is an unknown at the moment – we should have a better idea in a month or so.
April 15, 2015 at 14:36
Im in the early 12000s. Would it take a drastic increase in iranian ap for me to be screwed Wats the cut off point here. 2500 visas in iran or higher. Thanks for your help
April 15, 2015 at 14:38
If Iran sees 3000+ you could be out of luck….
April 15, 2015 at 14:41
So 2500 or something still ok?
April 15, 2015 at 23:36
Yes.
April 15, 2015 at 07:41
Hi what about AF68xxx ??
April 15, 2015 at 13:41
You still have some chance – but some risk too. All you can do is wait…
April 15, 2015 at 08:49
Hi britsimon,
what do you think?
cn 811*
from Nepal, Is there any possibility to get 2nl ???
April 15, 2015 at 13:42
That is in a risky range – you still have some chance – but some risk too. All you can do is wait…
April 15, 2015 at 08:51
please can you say how many visas have already been distributed on behalf of Africa at the moment? could I have the chance to have an interview by August or September if my cn is af 63xxx. thank you for all your information and analysis.
April 15, 2015 at 13:45
You still have a chance – AF is around 8000 issued.
April 15, 2015 at 09:26
The density of AF from 34000 case is average 350 per 1000. then if the response rate of those CN after 34150 are very low like 30 %, can AF get in sptember CN 80000?
April 15, 2015 at 13:59
Well that is the right sort of calculation – but that response rate is much lower than we have already seen. I posted the information in the link below that shows we are already seeing a response rate for AF at around 50% – and I expect the response rate to grow to around 60 to 65%.
So – let us assume for a moment that we see 65% response rate and 65% average approval rate for the cases that respond. That would mean about 150 cases per 1000 get approved – which is around 240 people. The first 34000 CNs will probably take around 12 to 13k (as a minimum), leaving about 6000 to 7000. 6000/240 = 25 – meaning 25000 case numbers are needed on top of the 34000 already accounted for. That is precisely why I give guidance saying 60000 is the starting point of risk. Does that make sense?
April 15, 2015 at 14:40
https://britsimonsays.com/africa-estimate-example/
April 15, 2015 at 09:33
If Im I right AF will be given like 22000 visa in the 50000 ?
April 15, 2015 at 10:05
Britsimon.. Hi what about CN 54XXX ?
April 16, 2015 at 00:49
https://britsimonsays.com/africa-estimate-example/
April 15, 2015 at 10:15
finally current 😉
April 15, 2015 at 10:29
hello brit, hope people with high case numbers such as AF 70xxx will get a chance.with this pace when do you think 45xxx will get interview? thanks for your effort.
April 15, 2015 at 10:32
am also suprised you predicted right!
April 15, 2015 at 13:19
Hi Brit,
what is your prediction for the final cut-off for AF?
thank you
April 16, 2015 at 00:51
https://britsimonsays.com/africa-estimate-example/
April 15, 2015 at 13:54
Hi Simon Sir,
I am convinced to your good and close predictions. I am talking about interview date of EDV 2015. My query is that when does Case No. 749x from Nepal will get opportunity for interview? How much confidence is there to occur this C.N. from Nepal? Hope you will clear my query.
April 16, 2015 at 00:52
August interview – high confidence
April 15, 2015 at 14:53
Hello Simon,
Thanks again for all this great work you are doing.
Do you think that we can consider EU391XX a safe CN at this point ?
Thanks
April 15, 2015 at 23:37
Not 100% safe – but a very good chance. EU will move fast in the next 2 VBs and then either stop or have a small September rise.
April 16, 2015 at 05:14
Hi Simon,
What is your opinion of around EU39600?
Thank you!
April 16, 2015 at 14:02
Should be ok, still some risk.
April 19, 2015 at 14:55
So is it more or less safe at this point?
can we more precisely predict my number’s security after the 2nl for June interviews are out?
April 19, 2015 at 15:20
Each month we can get better, but “precise” is only going to be available in mid July….
April 15, 2015 at 15:13
hi dear britsimon ,what do you think about last current in July for Asia?
April 15, 2015 at 23:41
It depends in Iranian AP cases – so until I confirm what is happening with those I cannot be sure….
April 15, 2015 at 15:24
Why in Asian region getting low cn in visa bulletin? What will be the last cn from Asia???
April 15, 2015 at 23:45
This explains the speed – and the fact that the fate of Asia depends on Iran…
https://britsimonsays.com/update-regarding-nepal-and-asia/
April 15, 2015 at 21:06
Hi Brit
Your advice to cn AF 73K is like a sermon encouraging me and others to believe in a miracle. I believe the -Amen
Williams
April 16, 2015 at 00:47
Best of luck!