Last month, I posted this information explaining how to predict the next VB. Most of what I said would happen did happen, so I won’t repeat the explanation again. I will just speak to the conclusion for each region.
I managed to capture the CEAC data immediately after the 2NLs, so I got a good count of the “in Transit” cases.
EU and OC.
The increase last month were a work of fiction. KCC may not realize that we can see the cases in CEAC, or they know some of us know but want to pretend to the rest of the world. The highest allocated number in EU is 24517 and in OC it is 959. So – it was complete nonsense to increase the VB numbers to 28000 and 1050 respectively. Those two regions are current – there is no doubt of that – much as KCC would like to pretend that they are not current.
There was some speculation that these two regions will have had a second draw – but I don’t believe that has happened. There are no cases that have come forward as new winners, and the CEAC data still shows the same highest numbers even after the 2NLs have gone out.
Africa had nearly 2000 in transit cases (that being the number of cases scheduled for interviews). At the response rate this will need around 3000/3200 case numbers (allowing for some backlog cases) to go current in the next VB – which will mean increasing the region to about 34500 to 35500 (for a safety, I’ll add plus or minus 500, making the range 34000 to 36000. That is in line with the roughly 7000 increase I mentioned last month.
As I mentioned last month, Asia is harder to predict because there are two numbers to consider. Asia as a whole and Nepal on its own. I was accurate last month on Asia as a whole but my guess was too high for Nepal. That is because KDU embassy has more control over their scheduling than a typical embassy. So – at I mentioned last month, Asia will probably be in the high 7000 range, possibly low 8000s. Nepal is harder to predict, but probably early 6000 range.
The pace will increase at around the same as last month – 100 or 125.
Now, as logical and scientific as we can be with predicting, the only numbers that really count are the ones that KCC release in the Visa Bulletin. KCC have more information than I have access to and they are in the driving seat. The DV process teaches patience – so ultimately we have to wait and see what happens. Hopefully though this post will at least give you a ROUGH IDEA of what to expect over the next couple of months, and I will update you as I get more information.