Last month, I posted this information explaining how to predict the next VB. Most of what I said would happen did happen, so I won’t repeat the explanation again. I will just speak to the conclusion for each region.
I managed to capture the CEAC data immediately after the 2NLs, so I got a good count of the “in Transit” cases.
EU and OC.
The increase last month were a work of fiction. KCC may not realize that we can see the cases in CEAC, or they know some of us know but want to pretend to the rest of the world. The highest allocated number in EU is 24517 and in OC it is 959. So – it was complete nonsense to increase the VB numbers to 28000 and 1050 respectively. Those two regions are current – there is no doubt of that – much as KCC would like to pretend that they are not current.
There was some speculation that these two regions will have had a second draw – but I don’t believe that has happened. There are no cases that have come forward as new winners, and the CEAC data still shows the same highest numbers even after the 2NLs have gone out.
Africa had nearly 2000 in transit cases (that being the number of cases scheduled for interviews). At the response rate this will need around 3000/3200 case numbers (allowing for some backlog cases) to go current in the next VB – which will mean increasing the region to about 34500 to 35500 (for a safety, I’ll add plus or minus 500, making the range 34000 to 36000. That is in line with the roughly 7000 increase I mentioned last month.
As I mentioned last month, Asia is harder to predict because there are two numbers to consider. Asia as a whole and Nepal on its own. I was accurate last month on Asia as a whole but my guess was too high for Nepal. That is because KDU embassy has more control over their scheduling than a typical embassy. So – at I mentioned last month, Asia will probably be in the high 7000 range, possibly low 8000s. Nepal is harder to predict, but probably early 6000 range.
The pace will increase at around the same as last month – 100 or 125.
Now, as logical and scientific as we can be with predicting, the only numbers that really count are the ones that KCC release in the Visa Bulletin. KCC have more information than I have access to and they are in the driving seat. The DV process teaches patience – so ultimately we have to wait and see what happens. Hopefully though this post will at least give you a ROUGH IDEA of what to expect over the next couple of months, and I will update you as I get more information.
April 2, 2016 at 14:09
We did our interview on 31 March and CO Approved our visa and he informed us we will receive our passport after a week or tow . Here I would like to thank you sir and I will post out interview experience after we got our passports . Also I wish the best for all applicant. LOL
April 7, 2016 at 13:14
As I read your post about prediction for the next
VB AS81 will have a chance to have an interview in June or July. Am I right?
April 7, 2016 at 13:20
I’m from ROA.
April 9, 2016 at 10:17
Hi britt.After the interview.How long it takes to get your passport back from the embassy (if you are succ of course)
April 9, 2016 at 15:37
A week or two normally.
April 10, 2016 at 17:17
Hello Simon, a quick question please… can interview be fine till the last day of the FY i.e. 30th Sept? Many regards.
April 10, 2016 at 18:30
April 10, 2016 at 17:19
Be *done *
April 12, 2016 at 15:58
i just compared your predictions with the VB for may. Respect ??
Thank you for your support
April 12, 2016 at 16:36
April 12, 2016 at 19:27
What do you think about case no AF385** when will be current?
April 12, 2016 at 19:28
April 12, 2016 at 20:19
Thank You Mr Boss Brit for your accurate predictions! Good job. Now we will wait for your next June 2016 predictions.
April 13, 2016 at 00:15
What about my case number Af 521**
Thanks for help us
April 13, 2016 at 02:27
“wait and see”
April 14, 2016 at 21:23
What do you think about case no AF446** when will be current?
April 14, 2016 at 23:40
Simon , hi ,
My question is about postal code of the adress of enrty and dv 260
I gave both the same adress but the post code of enrty i wrote it mistake, but the right one on 260 , i cant change the entry , may it cause problem ?
If i go to usa and get my green card , how long after that can i get married and take my wife to us ? We are still not married and waiting so that i go to usa , thank you
April 15, 2016 at 05:13
The address is not a problem.
Once you marry it will take around 2 years to bring your bride.
April 15, 2016 at 12:21
So do they give tourist visa easier to my wife that she comes and visits for a month or 2 in these years ?
April 15, 2016 at 14:52
No. Not easier – in fact, possibly harder.
April 15, 2016 at 06:16
Hi bri hope you are doing well do you think I can have a july interview with cn af39***??
April 15, 2016 at 15:21
June 28, 2016 at 03:04
my perorty date iz 28 aprl 2004
Us imigration wisa.. ??
cn uh tl me. how long. itz gne
June 28, 2016 at 03:57
Horrible text writing!!
Anyway, I don’t advise on Family based cases.