Oh man. Someone today talked about the DV process being a rollercoaster ride. It certainly is – and this year more than other years.
Today we saw the VB released for June interviews. So – although there are over 5 full months of interviews left, there are now just 3 VBs left. The progress on todays VB was a “mixed bag” – good news for some, awful news for others.
I am extremely busy at work at the moment, so I cannot do much with the data, but thanks to Xarthisius and the people scraping, we ALL have the CEAC data. Everyone can see and analyze the data for themselves by downloading the latest file from here. To exclude “holes” simply filter out the cases with a status of “none”.
I will make a few brief points on each region though.
In Asia, the number for “rest of Asia” is moving fast. Nepal will continue to see some increases at roughly the same pace we have seen. Nepal cases end around 7000, and the Nepal final number will probably be a little under the that (leaving a few highest cases without interviews). That is a pattern we have seen before. Because of the travel ban, the rest of AS has been allowed to move ahead. If the travel ban stays in place, it is possible for the rest of Asia to go current. However, that would change if the ban is removed. The appeal is being heard by the Supreme Court at the end of April.
For Africa the VB progress was slightly lower than I expected. I honestly don’t know whether the current pace is sufficient to reach the quota. In reality, the enhanced security measures this year and to some extend the travel ban have meant there are a lot of visas remaining before the quota (21600) is met, since there are only about 8000 visas issued at this point. However, The pace of issuances in the latter half of the year is always higher for AF region, especially as AP cases are concluded alongside issuances from normal processing. So – we have to wait and see where the final numbers will fall. I am NOT going to try to predict that number.
Oceania is tracking more or less exactly as expected and is heading for the 1450/1500 final number.
South America had a good month – but there is not much reason to believe pace will increase any faster than the 175 we saw this month. So – that would get us to about 1700 ish.
For Europe there is obviously a big disappointment coming for many people. I was sure we were going to see numbers in the 30’s. I really don’t think that will happen now. We have been used to EU doing very well, and I was hopeful this year would see a good high number. However, I am more and more certain that we are going to see a shockingly low VB number. Why? Well we can look at two things to estimate remaining progress. The month to month pace (based on embassy capacity etc), and the progress toward the quota (18300).
First, the pace. KCC reduced the pace in terms of the number of “real” case numbers since March. The VBs for April, May and now June interviews have only made 1070 to 1200 new real cases current. By the time we take response rate into account that means they are setting interviews for ~600 to ~750 new cases each month (plus another 150 to 200 from “backlog” cases each month.
So how about the quota? From that pace we would only expect to see around 1200 to 1500 visas issued each month (approximately!). However, that will probably get close to the quota even at that pace, because there are 10500 visas issued already leaving about 7500 to 8000 visas left (and 5.5 months of processing). So – the pace seems to suggest that KCC believe they are on track to meet the quota with existing pace (similar to what we saw in the last 3 VBs).
So – at the current density (which remains static until high 30’s) we could see VB increases of around 2500 a month (give or take a couple of hundred). That would get us to about 28000 or even a little less. That could happen. We would need to see increases of more than 3000 to get over 30000 – but there is not much evidence to hint at that increase in pace. So – I think a final number in the high 20’s is very likely. I have been responding “wait and see” to high cases in the 20’s for around a month now. I was hoping the VB today would dispel the fears. It didn’t.
Again – the data is available for all – please feel free to retain your own hope – I cannot be certain what will happen. Feel free to disagree with me and form your own opinion. Really – all we can do is wait and see how this rollercoaster will end. I fully realize the dreams people have based on this lottery. Best of luck to you all for your own cases – but please do show some sensitivity for the many people who want and deserve this opportunity just as much as you do – and perhaps are behind you in the line.
April 12, 2018 at 06:38
Am I the only one that almost cried yesterday ? 🙁
April 12, 2018 at 06:45
No, you are not 🙂
April 12, 2018 at 06:48
I was hoping that the VB will begin to progress further with the new density level but yesterday VB was a chock for me.
April 12, 2018 at 06:53
well, i didnt only almost cry.
April 12, 2018 at 07:17
And I
April 12, 2018 at 06:46
Thanks you Brit for taking time from your busy schedule and compiling the VB data for April.
at this point all we can keep our fingers cross and hoping that things can speed up in next 3 months, loosening hopes will not make any thing change but keeping hopes will keep us going ?
GOOD LUCK TO EVERY ONE
April 12, 2018 at 06:47
Very good text and also a disappointing results for EU… I am in the 21k but i have some friends in the 31,32k and seems like they start to lose hope, and for a reason. They were certain that they will catch the “last train”… At least i hope that all people under 30k will have a chance… Pray and wait…
April 12, 2018 at 06:48
Sorry
April 12, 2018 at 06:51
Simon what about if next 3 month change status “current” ?
April 12, 2018 at 12:11
For EU that is impossible.
April 12, 2018 at 06:52
hi brit, i am in EU28xxx, yes i am afraid. but i checked the DV2017 CEAC Date file which was prepared up to 28-11-2017 by xarthisius. I sorted this file(ceac-28-11-2017.csv) by ‘statusDate’ on excel app. i know everyday changes happens but i want to look this aspect. i notice that about 10000 was issued (with derivates) till April-10-2017 and now about 10700 was issued (with derivates) till April-10-2018 in EU region. And i know there are APs and Readys in 2018, but both year are like same in “issued rates”.. and i know we should wait and see 🙂 what do you think about this?
April 12, 2018 at 12:12
The article above covers my thoughts.
April 12, 2018 at 06:53
NEVER GIVE UP for who have high.
I believe that the next VB will be current
April 12, 2018 at 07:02
I am current for the month of June. however I am from a travel banned affected country. I was thinking of requesting the embassy to postpone the interview until July because the ruling at supreme court on travel ban is by end of June. I want to postpone the interview because of one reason follow: –
. 1) If I made the interview in June before the ruling, i will get refused for sure due to the presidential proclamation of travel ban. and If the court reject the travel ban, I am afraid that my case will not be reconsidered again as I already got refused before.
i need your advise Simon
April 12, 2018 at 12:13
Postponing would be the better idea.
April 12, 2018 at 13:19
Thanks for your always great advice
April 12, 2018 at 07:12
KFC, bu kadar insanın mağdur edilmemesi için önceki yıllarda olmayan bazı şeyler yapabilir mi ? örneğin vize sayısının arttırılması. neden olmasın ? This is the only things we can hope .. 🙂
April 12, 2018 at 07:31
Sorry for not translate 🙂 Can KFC do things that are not in the past years so many people are not victims? for example increasing the number of visas. why not ?This is the only things we can hope .. ?
April 12, 2018 at 07:37
KFC only do a fried chicken:)
April 12, 2018 at 08:09
ahahah 🙂 you correct me thanks )
April 12, 2018 at 12:17
I have enjoyed the translation from KCC to KFC for many years.
April 12, 2018 at 12:16
The process is controlled by laws. KCC cannot suddenly ignore those laws and do whatever they like. So – this year will see many miss out – and this is not the first year it happens that way.
April 12, 2018 at 08:09
ABD’de bu gibi şeyler yasalarla belirleniyor, yasa ne diyorsa o. Eğer böyle olmasaydı, yasanın bir anlamı kalmazdı. O zaman da Türkiye gibi olurdu ve zaten gitmeye gerek kalmazdı.
In the US this kind of things are determined by law. If there could some force apart from law, there would be no sense of law. Furthermore, US would be like Turkey. So there would be no need to go to US then.
April 12, 2018 at 08:10
great response 🙂
April 12, 2018 at 12:19
Exactly.
April 12, 2018 at 07:26
Well thank you mister Brit let’s keep calm and wait for the last three months left for us in the AF zone.
April 12, 2018 at 07:30
Why we see 36k in EU!!!
Compare 2015 vs 2018
2015 has MORE selectees
2015 has MORE numbers in line (about 43k(which is current) vs 36k in 2018. What about density in this case? Its the same?
in 2015 delayed DS forms of current numbers go to the end of queue in 2018 they are processed asap which leads to slower pace.
in 2015 were issued 19095 visas while 2250 stay ready. Now in April we see in 2018 10559 issued while 4156 are ready. That means there are half of visas is issued!!!
Explain me How this figures can do your predictions about 27к while I see by my two eyes that density is a half of first 5 months? It MUST be at least x1.8 from the average pace of first 5 months
Wee will see pace 8500 or current last month just because upside down DS form processing.
April 12, 2018 at 07:43
I’m just happy you finally made that blog post! There are may people putting so much hope into what you write, and they dont look at the data themselves. It would have been better to make that post earlier- looking at the excel files didnt suggest anything but a cut-of in the 30ties when being optimistic- and that since Feb. already. The agent theory and your overwhelming confidence to see numbers going up to 36k just put more stress on people- however, there was not the slightest piece of evident for this to happen. You will take this as being rude probably- but you really shouldnt. If the lottery is going on for a bit longer, and you tend on doing this for longer, it is always better to have a plain look at the current years data and progress and hold back with assumptions that have no substance. it is better for everyone involved to be then, in then end, positivly suprised- and then you can explain the logic of more numbers being called due to reasons. A year like this is stressful for everyone. I know that you are doing this to take stress of people- but this year you did the opposite.
Of course, everyone is in the end responsible for themselves, and they should belive what they feel is right, and not what you think is right. But I guess that is not how people work. If there is someone who claims to know this stuff, we are happy listeners- me, for my part, I didnt apply for DV19 because looking at your Blog in summer for the first time, this website made the impression this guy knows what he is talking about. Numbers under 37k are safe, and even if that is a guess, he probably didnt made an error of 4k case numbers and VB from previous years support that. Little did I know about the process.
But again- with nearly 2k more selectees in this lottery then in DV2015 we could have known this outcome from the very first month and it would have prevented people from thinking they would actually be moving to the states for nearly a year just to wake up to this. Additionally, the Trump administration is a trigger to immigrants. When a wealthy country threatnes to close its borders to immigrants- the rush for these borders begins.
I still appreciate the work you do on here, you are a great support for questions regarding required documents etc.
But please, in the future, be a bit more careful on your predictions.
Best wishes
Roxana
April 12, 2018 at 08:42
You always said you knew better – and as it turns out, you were rightfully pessimistic. You did not act accordingly and now blame it on the optimism you saw in an internet blog? That’s sad and unfair, and you know it. Nobody could have anticipated what happening this year, but even back in November it was clear that this year wasn’t ‘normal’ – if there ever was one.
I have CN 10xxx and still applied for DV2019….
April 12, 2018 at 11:07
Rxy, I understand your frustration. I am also very disappointed but without being a lawyer of Brit I would disagree with you on many points:
1. I am Financial analyst and part of my work is to make financial projections of the companies’ performance. When you do this you choose your assumptions under different scenarios based on what the company did in the past and the information you have for the future. That is what exactly Brit done. He explained in an article how he determined that risk zone begins at EU 33XXX and what were his assumptions. He had no information about how 2018’s selectees will behave, so this was not incorporated in the prognosis/guess;
2. Personally based on 2015’s I would say that EU33XXX was more the realistic scenario and I would call “safe zone” more the pessimistic scenario. However, having in mind that many people will loose hope, I think that Brit done the right thing. There was a possibility that a final cutoff was much higher than EU 33XXX;
3. I don’t agree that in Jan-Feb there was enough information to say that the final cutoff will be probably below EU30XXX. In January I think Uzbekistan was not limited yet and the data available for visa issuing was only for 2-3 months;
4. Brit explained his method and the logic behind. Everybody was able to do its own guesstimate;
5. Many times he explained how different are the years, even how differ the behaviour of people from the same country from year to year.
That being said, I find it unfair to blame Brit for his guesstimates. Sometimes (even often) the things happen differently that we would like. That is what happening in EU region this year. Many people are disapointed but that is the real life. What doesn’t kill us make us stronger:)
April 12, 2018 at 12:53
Hey,
I think both things have to be taken into consideration- past and present. Up to this point, Brit based his assumptions only on past. However, we knew how many selectees were spread over how many real cases the latest by Jan. We were also able to see that there was a trend to a higher response and dev. rate. already. And honestly- most of his articles start with “I’m really busy so I just had a brief look”.
I think all of us with high CNs had more then a brief look, and many of us were questioning the 33k “starting of risk zone”. But we were told we dont understand the process, and that our numbers are wrong when we were actually working with the numbers the DV18 process suggested- instead of numbers DV15 did. With case numbers only up to 39k and 2k more selectees compared to DV15- 33k was already “high risk”.
I dont blame Brit for his guesstimates. This is a cool hobby to get into, and it can help people. Take alone the effort to collect the data and make it free for everyone to look at. That is an outrageously nice thing to do for so many strangers.
I rather blame myself for not relying on my own guts, – and hope that for the next years to come, if brit continues to do that and the lottery isnt cancelled, he can take some time looking into the concerns of people with higher CNs a bit earlier, knowing that it is a requirement for DV to have at least a high school diploma- therefore most of us are not completely “unable to analyse” even if we have less experience then him.
None of us have bet the farm on this, we kept our jobs and our houses, we will just continue living our lives and maybe play and win again. But we still lived for nearly a year thinking we would head into a new life- which makes it a lot harder to remain in the old. At this point, I can only speak for myself, but I can say that I would have rather not seen the first post about numbers under 37k being safe “without much risk at all”. I would have seen the low VB in September, October, November, and I would have been disappointed. But this disappointment only grew after a year.
April 12, 2018 at 13:00
Again – you had the data at the same time I did. The earliest we had the data was early January – about 100 days ago. At that point EU had less than 4000 visas issued. I have been cautious for people under 30 for several weeks now. Are you saying you hadn’t noticed that???? Really – enough.
April 12, 2018 at 14:58
Roxana, I have to cut short your tone of this post. You sound like you blame someone about this situation. You had data which you tried to analyse by yourself (very often wrong), you were catching some fragments filling them with your thoughts and often pushing them in Britt’s mouth, grasping on some conspiracy theories and holding them like burr dog’s a…s ? You were the one looking for reassurance of your optimistic thoughts and you never get them. I’m in very close cn range like you, and never had feeling that something posted here is for sure. Remember that first 37k safe range was before Jan and assumed that highest cn is around 45k – it was just shoot based on… i don’t know maybe someone reported such for fun or can’t see difference between regions, until Jan we didn’t know what is the highest cn and this is very important information. I feel really sorry for you, for me, for everyone else who won’t catch a train, but we are all adults with our brains to use. Sometimes reading your posts I was holding myself to not „yell” at you, because i couldn’t hold your pursuance to make Britt to agree with your statements. Now I’m glad i haven’t done so – as today for the first time i realised that you are female ?. Glad i really didn’t release my harshness and nastiness on you – i would feel very stupid and sorry now. All the time i had in my head I can’t let Rxy down, as he ( at this time i thought you were male) seems very stressed about any indication of very low cutoff. Also tried to comfort myself that maybe everything will be ok. Well, Rxy it’s not time to spill guts I’m really happy that i could meet you and others here. And as we had common dream, now we have common misery and misery loves company. Maybe one day some of us (high cn) will be able to meet at one place and have toast for our failure that would be at least one great side of all this mess. Rxy this above may be seen as harsh by you, but no ill will, but don’t try to blame Britt – he was very patient with you, i wouldn’t be so ?. It was really great to meet you and other gang members.
Regards
April 12, 2018 at 16:48
Rxy,
Why are you so frustrated with lowered chances DV2018 when you hold German passport? Come visit us in our “european” countries like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to realise how lucky you’re in your current state 🙂
April 12, 2018 at 16:52
Rxy do you live and you are frustated come to lived at my country venezuela our minimum salary is 4$ at month. Come on
April 12, 2018 at 17:08
Damm it. Uzbekistan isn’t located in Europe. It’s Asia. ?
April 12, 2018 at 17:13
Geography is not considered an important topic in American schools.
April 12, 2018 at 17:10
not all of us participate in the lottery for a better quality of live. We all have different reasons.
April 12, 2018 at 12:10
I’m not surprised you are lashing out at me because you are in that stage of grief. However, I have explained to you, MANY, MANY times to look at the data yourself, I have explained the methods, and I have explained that I could be wrong. You have posted HUNDREDS of questions and I answered them. When I explained why I was more optimistic, I explained, in great detail, what I was thinking. But you cannot now claim you were not being informed!
I am not controlling the process of the numbers – all I have done is unravel some (but not all) of the mysteries. Without me, and without the data provided by Xarthisius and the scrapers you would have been completely in the dark. You choose to blame me because I gave you false hope – well – I also gave you some understanding.
April 12, 2018 at 13:12
Roxana ( finaly i got your name, and it’s a big surprise, as i thought you are male 🙂 all the posts we exchanged ?), i understand your frustration and dissapointment. Lionel above wrote something about almost crying. Well, my feeling was fury… Don’t get me wrong, not furious upon somebody as i think people here are great (sometimes lazy and asking stupid questions) but people tied with one common dream, same as me. This community was and still is big part of my every day with it’s happiness, fears and sorrows. My fury is about not enough luck. When my wife got selected may 2017 i thought that moving to us is so obvious that nothing can go wrong looking at previous VB while not understanding them. Then by coincidence i’ve found this site – in my opinion with best design and user friendly to clearly guide new people like me through process. At first i was expecting like most people information when my interview will take place (looking previous years i thought it’s certain thing) but never asked it straight. I was asking probably irritating questions and always got patient answer with good explanation from Brit. That together with awesome Xarthisius’ job helped me to make my own analysis and judgements – only thx to those guys, their hard work, patience and willingness to help other people. In feb i was aware that EU cutoff won’t be higher than 29800 (now i don’t think it will reach so high) but wanted to keep it to myself especially because of you Rxy – all the time you seemed so stressed, i didn’t want to let you down. I was also trying to fool myself that I’m terribly wrong, and things will be better. They didn’t get better and they won’t. I’m furious and frustrated but I’m also very grateful to this community with Brit ahead ?. No matter the outcome i must say that it was great experience and pleasure to meet you all people here. It would be completely impossible without one person – Brit. I know that for many of us american dream is over but i hope still to meet some of you here. Soon we will have dv 2019 results – there very slim chance to get selected 2 years in row, but still better than dv2018 with cn 339xx ?. The biggest and most frustrating thing is that probably i’ve closed my oportunity to visit us completely – now even tourist visa will be denied due to immigration intent. Roxana – probably you won’t have this problem, so you should at least be happy because of this. Now it’s time to wait for 2019 results ( i’m glad that i didn’t listen to my wife to not apply as we were already selected ?) I don’t believe i will be lucky again, but who knows. Thank you all, thank you Britt, and thank you Xarthisius. Good luck for those who are waiting with hope.
P.s. I really, really don’t get people who just woke up and are asking questions: i’m EU 203xx will i get interview in june or are just few hundreds above june cutoff and are asking are they safe. As Britt said, have patience, wait&see – no one is safe but do not cross the line crying that you won’t get your interview in june – you’ll have to wait month longer. There are still people who have been waiting several months just to realize that all their dreams are crushed or all of sudden foundthemselves in very risky zone. Once again – thx Britt, thx Xarthisius ( again i’m really proud to have such brilliant fellow coutryman ? and i hope you already finished your case) and thx to all this community i could share my time with. Maybe there will be next time…
Regards
April 12, 2018 at 13:17
Carlos – the submission of the DS260 is not 100% fatal to a NIV. It can be seen as a factor, but cannot be the only factor in a denial. That means that if you take care to show ties to the home country, a visitors visa will typically not be affected by the DS260 submission.
Best of luck in May.
April 12, 2018 at 14:00
Thx Britt, but i think in case of my country this is rather fatal. Sometimes it looks to me like money making machine. I can provide ties like house, well paid job but now there is „shadow” that i wanted to migrate and believe me that those interviews are not so nice and easy like most of dv interviews. At least in my country. And i don’t want to risk paying few hundred bucks(less problem) just to watch my family’s humiliation (bigger problem, especially with children) and be rejected even i provide that i have strong ties. There will always be intent of migration in the past… harsh but true. Thank you Britt for all your help and hope to stay in touch from time to time here.
Regards
April 12, 2018 at 14:06
That sucks! Maybe May then.
April 12, 2018 at 14:30
well carlos. I have an iranien passport. Born in EU country, so eglible to EU. In january 2017, Trump banned Iraniens, and dual citizens with an iranien passport. I thought to myself- shiiiiiiiiiit. Then I won the DV lottery and was like-hahahahahaha, biggest joke ever, I won, but I’m banned. Then they changed it so dual citizens were not affected and I pulled a hell of all existing strings to get that german citizenship. It nearly took until January for me to get it, I remember that day- shortly before christmas. Then I felt relief for a short time. Then there was a post that Cut-of, if we are all just very unlucky, will be about 33k, but “probably higher”. I was worried as shit, but wanted to hope for the best.Then I checked the US-embassy to Germanies website, just to find out that on their website about immigrant and DV visas it said that dual citizens were still banned form receiving any visas for the US. I was in shock again, and called several institutions about this. The US-embassy phone stuff had no clue and kept referring me to to their website. The website stated dual citizens were not eligible for the visa. It was like catching my own tale. It took weeks until I finally had someone on the phone who said that this post on their website was a mistake and I saw the they removed it the same day and I felt relief again. With all that trouble, it is nearly impossible for me to belive that it all failed because of my CN. There were so many obstacles in my way, and I managed to get them all out of my way. And now it is the most plain and simple thing ever- my CN is too high.
April 12, 2018 at 14:45
So were you aware that you had risk of AP that could last several months?
April 12, 2018 at 14:50
of course! All the time! but I have lived in Germany for the past 29 years, only visiting Iran 2 times as a kid. So I hoped that I would have been fine.
April 12, 2018 at 15:12
Rxy, i remember you said about being Iranian living in Germany, but i thought you have best passport in the world ?(german). Never mind – we have to find some place in the middle of EU so everyone from gang can easily get there. Probably we will pick geometrical center of Europe ( sometimes it’s in Lithuania, sometimes Belarus, sometimes Poland, but pointing it never counts Turkey and Uzbekistan as European countries ?) and get some good drinking over there.
April 12, 2018 at 17:07
Carlos- you are from Poland- not Cambodscha. You make it sound like your country is a terrible terrible place- you have 27 other countries to choose from, if your goal is to get out of Poland. In our group is a man from Azerbajian, who got a tourist visa this year, when he already won and filed his DS260. There was a short question about it- and thats it. If you are to proud for that – well, then this is really a shame.
April 12, 2018 at 18:21
That’s right RXY – I’m from Poland and i like my country very much. I don’t know which of my posts led you to conclusion that my country is terrible. I haven’t stated it anywhere i like to live in my country, but I also like to live in US. You don’t have to live in terrible country to enlist on DVL program. You stated this and i fully agree with this. My country isn’t terrible, it’s somwhere in the middle and i like living here. Everyone has it’s reasons to have a chance to live in US – it doesn’t have to be economical reason. I know that in my case moving there would significantly lower living standard, for sure at start. I was aware of that and was thinking every cons and pros. I decided to do this for my kids and for my personal sentiment for US – country with so many great to see and live places on earth and so many friendly people. Once again please point my post where i’ve stated that my country is terrible place to live. If u mean my post about president and his 30% support – well, he is cool guy, i like him, but my country is so politically divided that no one can get more than 40% 🙂 If you mean US tourist visa problems – well that’s not the fault of my country. Besides this – i don’t know which post led you to conclusion that i think my country is terrible – your conclusion is completely WRONG. Still it doesn’t mean that I don’t have right to dream about moving to US – and you probably agree with it.
Regards
April 12, 2018 at 18:44
Carlos, I have traveled often to the US with an ESTA while participating to the DV Lottery and I only get in “trouble” once. I was questioned by 3 different officers, the first two were tough and suspecting me of having hidden motives. The third one was a lot laid back, although she asked more questions, i proved and showed I was only there on a vacation and had strong ties to my home country despite a 5 year student visa and several dv lottery registrations so keep faith! Imagine if they banned all the people who play the lottery from entering the US??! LOL impossible
April 12, 2018 at 19:05
Aivilo86 thx, but ESTA and VWP is a dream. In my country there is no such program. You have to pay 160$ per person to wait several hours to be questioned. The outcome is random and dependant on officer mood – really. At the begining they treat most of the people like potential immigrants. I was at such interview with my friend, we were both studying – I got my tourist visa, he didn’t – same questions, same studies, no bank account checking – no difference – but outcome completely different. This seems to random for me, and this DVL “flaw” won’t surely help me. Maybe one day they will remove visa obligation for my country (don’t know how many years more they can lie about their will to do so for their “greatest” “ally” in Europe 🙂 – maybe then will be the oportunity to try. VWP is still not for my country – but thx for the suggestion.
Regards
April 12, 2018 at 17:24
I totally agree with you,…sometimes one should trust his guts. Now (for those who read this) don’t get me wrong, Britsimon’s blog has been and is still the most helpful DV resource on the net, and he has done a magnificient job for free and without expecting nothing in return, and for this we should be grateful. But he always struck me as arrogant and over-confident (and of course, very busy!…as if he was the only one here)…and while predictions are not an exact science, he should have been more prudent and humble in his analysis. On the other side of the screen there are persons, human-beings, some of them from “difficult” countries and who for them a visa for the US is a matter of life or death,….one should be more considerate. Fortunately it’s not my case, but if it was a shock for me to know after one year of dreams and illusions, this is the end (and not how I expected it),….I don’t even want to know how people who deserve it more than me are feeling right now. Now I say and I reapeat, I don’t blame Britsimon, he’s not a psychic. I’m only criticizing his attitude. He should have been more prudent in his predictions and analysis, read by thousands of people.
My only regret is, I should have trusted my guts. I already pointed to this year’s higher-than-usual density, and I was ignored. I also talked several times about the “Trump” factor, and I was laughed at. I was always, now I realize reasonably, worried about my case number (mid-40s AF). I was told I should listen to people who knows better (sic).
This is the attitude I’m criticinzing. Had I followed my guts, I wouldn’t have wasted one year of false illusions.
April 12, 2018 at 17:39
@Saabe. I am arrogant and over confident. And yes – I am the only one who owns this blog – so anyone who visits here is free to read, or not – but *not* free to tell me what to do! So in that sense – I am the king of my own castle.
As for you being ignored about density – I have no idea what you are talking about – I worked with Xarthisius to make sure all had the data. I explained what density was, and I pointed out that density was higher. I truly don’t know what you could possibly mean about ignoring you.
As for the comment about wasting 1 year – we have had data for about 100 days. I have ALWAYS urged caution, before we had the data and after. People are SICK of me saying “wait and see” – and I have been saying that for AF cases for MONTHS! Don’t blame me because you are angry! That is unfair and wrong.
April 14, 2018 at 05:06
Dear Britsimon, don’t get me wrong. I DON’T blame you. Nobody forced you to waste your time here and without you as you rightly (even if arrogantly) say, without you we would be in the dark. So I say and I repeat, I don’t blame you and I’m personally grateful to all the help you provide for free.
I only criticized your attitude, and you yourself sort of admitted it. And I already noticed you’re lately becoming more sensible in your answers to,…may I remind you,…not dumb but desperate people. (yes I know, it’s frustrating sometimes to read the same question, is my case number safe? …but some people are desperate and anxious and you need to put yourself in their shoes,… “Wait and See” is a good answer. “Don’t waste my time” is not.)
As to me,…you know very well I only posted 3 or 4 times on your blog, mainly to praise you or confirm some of your predictions, since I did some of my own, and I partly grew confident because fo them. I should have added the variable “unpredictable events” for safer conclusions (better be over-prudent than over optimistic).
I was rather talking about my posts on the “forum”. I don’t know if I am allowed to post links to other websites,…but if you remember, I asked you about “the higher than usual density for AF” months before you even started mentioning it here. My pessimism about my case number was well known (and you textually said I should listen to people who know better than me). Both you and other people laughed at me when I brought up the “Trump Factor” (and now we’re seeing higher than usual AP cases, and the slow progression is [b]partly[/b] affected by trump’s extreme vetting). Anyway, I’m not angry at you, just disappointed but I’m already getting over the whole thing. I’m just worried I may have problems with ESTA to visit the US as a tourist,…for having shown previously immigrant intent.
Otherwise, wish you the best and thanks again for all your help.
regards.
April 14, 2018 at 14:21
I told you to listen to those who know better in response to you freaking out at the low VB pace (different to other years). I had explained why that was (change in DS260 processing – no backlog).
Your question about density being higher than usual was AFTER we had the CEAC data and I had published it and was talking about it – so the answer to your question was obvious, and I never answered it – so really – what can be your complaint there???
As for Trump, NO – the increase in AP is due to travel ban and introduction of the the DS2235 – the latter introduced by the Obama administration.
Really – enough with this. I don’t need advice from you on how I answer people. My answers are my answers, which include a part of my personality, patience, mood and so on. I’m not changing that, its me.
Now, stop wittering on about this. Watch AF progress.
https://forums.immigration.com/threads/ceac-data-is-available-and-we-are-scraping.337230/page-2#post-2469104
https://forums.immigration.com/threads/january-2018-visa-bulletin.337183/#post-2468228 .
April 12, 2018 at 17:43
@Saabe. Read this post from YOU (not me). Tell me again about how *I* misled *YOU* or about my attitude…
https://britsimonsays.com/interview-capacity-visa-bulletin-pace/comment-page-1/#comment-100841
April 12, 2018 at 17:55
And read this post of yours also (the first post you ever wrote on this blog). You would do well to re-read your own words, and re-read the article above the post. You can see I pointed out caution NUMEROUS times. I warned where I had been wrong in the past. I was even humble.
Really – where do you get the idea that I had misled you???? That is utter nonsense.
https://britsimonsays.com/dv2018-some-further-analysis/comment-page-1/#comment-97865
April 12, 2018 at 17:37
Rxy/Roxana. You are a complete idiot on top of being utterly negative! First of all, YOU HAVE NEVER BEEN FORCED TO COME ON THIS PAGE! You are ungrateful of Simon’s hard work. If you know better Why are you even here?! Simon is not responsible for people’s hopes and dreams. He’s not the DV Lottery. If you actually paid attention HIS NUMBER ONE ANSWER IS WAIT AND SEE SO DON’T BLAME HIM FOR CRUSHED DREAMS. His number one objective is to easy up the process and explain us From his personal experience, knowledge and ACTUAL FACTS AND NUMBERS. He’s been nothing but genuine and straight forward. Never beating around the bushes or feeding false hope. You should be ashamed of yourself and i hope YOU DO NOT GET A GC! YOU’RE NOT WORTHY OF IT. you showed your bad faith and ugly nature. He’s announced for months this year was different and the odds for high EU CNs to be current were slim to none…. pathetic don’t blame your frustration on a good Samaritan!
April 12, 2018 at 17:42
I wont get a GC- if that gives you any relief. Also, you are free to say and think what you want- and so am I. I just dont recall calling anyone “idiot” just because they said what is on their mind.
April 12, 2018 at 18:47
ILMHiSF – you really have left your heart in SF (city of peace and love :)) because you behave like you had none. I understand your anger upon people whining here now – but i think you are to harsh. Sometimes I also so close to call some people here idiots but I’m holding myself. I don’t like the people pulling out data from november/december pointing that Britt said this and this. There was always some uncertainty and Britt always stated it. At the begining I was fully confident about those analysis but wanted to know more. I’ve learned through asking more or less stupid questions. I think I irritated Britt mostly with question about 5 countries with most selectees. I couldn’t understand why only Uzbekistan has such low cutoff not rest. I was thinking that all countries should have same CN cutoff – now I am ashamed that my thinking was so stupid – but Britt after “harsh” start fully explained why my thinking was wrong. I think that was the last stupid question i asked – whith such preparation I was ready to force my brain to work on it’s own 🙂 I was aware that my calculations were so low that seemed impossible to have such low values. Still was looking here to comfort myself but i knew with so many variables no one can be 100% sure of the outcome. And Britt never stated this – only lazy people or people without basic calculating skills wanted ready 100% accurate answers. I also trying to understand their frustration as I’m one of them – big dissapointment and sadness – ILMHiSF don’t be to harsh to them. They don’t know what are they talking about 🙂 And get your heart from SF quick – stop being cold s… of a b… 🙂
Regards
April 13, 2018 at 07:23
Hi, Carlos. Can i read why Uzbekistan has low cutoff? Thnx.
April 13, 2018 at 14:09
Google “Britsimon holes theory”
April 12, 2018 at 07:45
Okay. Waiting for my photo finish. EU27500
This is a terrible feeling. Good luck ALL!
April 12, 2018 at 12:23
Good luck <3
April 12, 2018 at 07:46
This year nothing make since with VB progrss very diffrent than previous years.
No one can predict anything.
But i think the vb will go slow to the end and no region can be current.
5 vb’s before obviously show that.
April 12, 2018 at 07:49
Hello, Simon. My number is above 36k in Europe (Russia). I have sent 260 form last July. Since I have extremely low chance for interview, is that a good idea to withdraw this application form (saying I have changed my mind about moving to the US) for increasing chances of getting tourist visa in future? What is the best time to do it? I appreciate what you do.
April 12, 2018 at 08:02
Man, Russia 32k here, make b1/b2 visa now, I just renewd mine, and mentioned in ds160 that i’ve filled ds260 on dv2018. Had no problems!
April 12, 2018 at 08:25
Alex, I have the same idea to unlock ds. But THEY know all… dv18 is over for us, vse, pizdec…
April 12, 2018 at 16:49
ne govori, blya… pizdec…
CN EU33xxx
April 12, 2018 at 08:52
that is an interesting point. Also regarding to people who already ave a tourist visa. I wonder if a filed dv application can couse them trouble when entering…
April 12, 2018 at 12:18
You cannot withdraw the DS260.
April 12, 2018 at 07:54
Guys i know , how you are feeling but we cannot do anything. This is the process which we cannot make any impact on in it. The only things we can do is to believe, pray and wait…America is opportunity but if you cannot reach it is not the end of the world ;)))) be positive.
April 12, 2018 at 08:10
Brit good day n a big thanks to the awesome job u r doing to keep us posted on the dv program, please just answer
1- WHAT’S the impact of the uplifting of the ban on Chad on the entire African dv winners.
2 -does it add more existing risk to those with high CN?
3-how many winners were there in chad for dv 2918 fiscal year
4-is it game over for high case numbers LIKE AF465**
Thanks in anticipation
April 12, 2018 at 12:21
1. Nothing at all.
2. Zero
3. 85.
4. Wait and see.
April 12, 2018 at 08:13
Hi Brit
I have carefully looked at the ceac data for embassy Yaoundé, Cameroon and I realized that at this juncture, there are very few visas which have been issue, very few AP And very few refusal rate with very few cases ready. Does this means most of Cameroon case numbers are concentrated in the high case Numbers?? Because I have check up to 24700 for AF yet could not find any case for Cameroon, I then recall your post last year when dv lottery was out u made mentioned about Cameroon and Liberia having few Case numbers at lower case and most their Case concentrated at the high Case??
If that is the Case then I think me as 41803 from Cameroon needs to just wait patiently to go current from July and August
April 12, 2018 at 12:22
There is no process that concentrates selectees from a country in the *higher* numbers.
April 12, 2018 at 17:36
Between CN 28300 and 41000, there are 5875 real cases besides the non presentation during the interview. That is 12719 cases and 6540 are holes according to the Xarthisuis file. Which gives us 5875 real cases.
April 12, 2018 at 08:36
Simon, where did you get info on quotas per region? Why it’s 18300 per EU, since there were issued 20k visas last year?
April 12, 2018 at 12:26
There is a mathematical formula. In years where some regions are underselected, some transferring of quota can go on from region to region. That happened last year because the other regions were underselected, BUT this year all regions will need all their visas.
April 12, 2018 at 13:18
thanks for explanation. 18300….it sucks :((
April 12, 2018 at 13:21
So, there is also risk below 25000. Am I right?
Also thanks for all you support.
April 12, 2018 at 13:55
I don’t see how – but you have the data.
April 12, 2018 at 08:37
I think (hope) that Europe will be Current for August or September. Wish that to be true ?
April 12, 2018 at 12:27
I wish that could be true also – but it is impossible.
April 12, 2018 at 13:29
Don’t be so sure 😀
April 12, 2018 at 15:15
And don’t have to much hope ?
April 12, 2018 at 16:13
There is nothing to lose
April 12, 2018 at 11:24
Thanks , Brit.
So, Brit. My question is what or how process need to go on in order to get a interview at 34xxx selectee ? I mean about hole, response rate or non-qualified users . Do you think is there any change or hope for high number users ? it is hard to be current but I believe number might be high
thanks
April 12, 2018 at 12:00
My thoughts are explained above.
April 12, 2018 at 11:55
Hello Brit,
I don’t know why I am finding it difficult to go into Xarthisius articles. I am unable to access the his data.
April 12, 2018 at 11:56
Thanks Brit
April 12, 2018 at 12:38
When filling D’s 260 there is a question did u receive vaccination according to us laws? I answered no ..and in explanation I said I received vaccitions but don’t have the documents…will this create any problems….I was being honest
April 12, 2018 at 12:39
No problem – that is the correct response.
April 12, 2018 at 12:53
Hi Brit. I did some statistic info based on dvcharts.xarthisius.xyz site. This year was seleceted 110 638 case numbers with derivates, 39 695 are from EU region. From 1st October till 2017 till 10 th April 2018 the numbers of issued visas are 10 559 , at the end of 31st may 2018 the total numbers of given visas will be 15 668 (10 559 + 4156 ready + 953 AP). There are 4 months left to give visas. From 18 050 to 39 695 the numbers of cases with the status of “AT NVC” is 13 306. With average derivative rate (2.27 %) it is 13 306 * 2.27= 30 204 visas.
In that case I think it is impossible to wait EU current. There is a great potential risk this year for case numbers above 30k.
P.S- my case number is 31 xxx ))
April 12, 2018 at 13:02
Well your numbers are confused, but your conclusion is accurate.
April 12, 2018 at 13:21
Rarely wrong numbers put in equation give good results, but in this case result is right – no hope for current. Btw how did you get those 13k? Between 18050 and 34k there are 7006 cases?
April 12, 2018 at 16:30
So, what you are suggesting is maybe additional round of Visa Bulletin (considering this pace ~ 2500), or pace increase in between.
April 12, 2018 at 13:30
My CN is AF40700 is there any chances
April 12, 2018 at 13:56
You have to wait and see.
April 12, 2018 at 18:05
Between CN 28300 and 41000, there are 5875 real cases besides the non presentation during the interview. That is 12719 cases and 6540 are holes according to the Xarthisuis file. Which gives us 5875 real cases.
April 12, 2018 at 13:59
Hi SImon, and Hi to everybody reading this Blog.
First of all thanks for Your time, and sorry about my english 🙂
Pls tell me about AP & Ready Visas from xarthisius website/app, are those per case or they are for Applicants (including dependents).
Also are those Ready the ones that are in NVC (cases until 20 300).
Sorry if i repeat a question, i read a lot through your Blog and didn’t find answer.
My case No. is EU 32k, i don’t have any expectations yet, but i have ‘the’ hope (as she dies last) and still believe there is a space for us(over 30′) and US of A 🙂
Kind Regards,
and have a great day.
April 12, 2018 at 14:07
AP and ready include derivatives.
April 12, 2018 at 14:05
What is the current trend? What is the ideal case? A non-attendance of 70% 0.9 derivatives that open more seats in the embassies? How would these numbers have to be? Thanks
April 12, 2018 at 14:27
What would be the cut off for Nepal this year any prediction?? Any rough guess you can give Britt sir.. thank you
Looking at this vb of April I guess I won’t cross 7000 for Nepal ..ryt?
April 12, 2018 at 14:31
There are no (or almost none) Nepal cases above 7000, so I expect the cutoff to be below 7000.
April 12, 2018 at 14:37
Mine cn is 65** is there chance for me tobe called for interview sir
Thanku
April 12, 2018 at 14:50
Wait and see.
April 12, 2018 at 15:01
sir i am sorry ti ask it again but wanted to know if this case number would be current?still there are 3 visa bulletin left how would it go …. this means only 1 vb of june will current for nepal… is that so or how you see upcoming vb?? please give some insight to much tensed
April 12, 2018 at 16:10
Wait and see. Don’t ask again.
April 12, 2018 at 14:28
Hi, for Europe, in percentage what is the chance for 263## ?
April 12, 2018 at 14:30
I don’t calculate percentage chances between 0 and 100.
April 12, 2018 at 15:44
Simon please stop making people nervous because 70% from your predictions are wrong.How we could be sure that this new prediction is right ? You make a lot of mistakes from January till now , taking some calculations from the data .I think that no one knows exactly this kind of process and no one could predict or estimate .Guys believe in miracles. I still believe that somthing will happened good for the hight CNs .I have still hope and at this moment I stop read your blog because you are in the last few months everything wrong . How could I believe that now my number won’t become current ? Here is EU348xx
April 12, 2018 at 15:50
Moni, you may believe in what you want, no one can take it from you. But math is math, numbers are numbers – faith in miracles has nothing to do here…
April 12, 2018 at 16:07
Oh come on carlos what math ?-firstly he said we will see number to 37 then no we will see 33 , Then o no it is on risk zone and thene o I told you that this is bad year we won’t see numbers above 30-k .if he make good calculations why he wrote few days ago that maybe we will se jump for 5000 ?-if he is sure with his calculations he will tell us this earlier.but no one knows how many will recive visa from those from ap and ready , and no one knows if they will exceed the qouta , maybe some region will not have necessity for them .Wait and see … yeas,simon wait and see I pray to be wrong and to write you after three months YOU WERE WRONG !
April 12, 2018 at 16:08
Well as you say, the best thing you can do is stop reading the blog – because I don’t stop talking on MY blog simply because you are telling me to stop.
Best of luck.
April 12, 2018 at 16:14
Thank you I will come back on this blog after three months ?? good luck guys ?
April 12, 2018 at 17:58
It’s a F#$%G lottery. DO you know what that means and how it works ?! Some of you are pathetic
That’s why you can’t do nice things for people! You, Roxana and Saabe need to eff yourselves. WAIT AND SEE that’s what is most recurrent on this blog and the data is available to all of us. You fooled your damn self so don’t take it out on someone who has nothing to do with it! What are even the odds to be selected in.the first place ?! No one is entitled to win… THE RULES OF THE DV LOTTERY OF PRETTY CLEAR ON THAT
April 12, 2018 at 14:53
50% 🙂
April 12, 2018 at 15:45
Most accurate answer in few seconds with simple quiz…
What alcohol do you drink most often? Answer truly and then
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
A. Wtf is alcohol? – sorry your chances are none…
B. Water, alcohol free beer – your chances are 1%
C. Budlight – you chances are 4,5%
D. Any porter type beer – 6,5%
E. Wine- 17%
F. Vodka -40%
G. Slivovitz vodka -80%
H. Denaturated alcohol -98%
What was your answer and result??
April 12, 2018 at 16:19
Thanks for the method.
🙂
April 12, 2018 at 16:55
I’m going to boost my chances this weekend ?
April 12, 2018 at 14:59
Damn. Mr. Putin is my president again. Tnahks to my 30+ CN.
April 12, 2018 at 15:52
Ha ha. And my- Lukashenko! OMG! No!
April 12, 2018 at 15:58
Well, Your presidents are liked by 98% of your nations, so it can’t be so bad. My president is liked only by 30% ?
April 12, 2018 at 16:20
Same here.
April 12, 2018 at 16:55
these two can’t compare to the one in Kazakhstan
April 12, 2018 at 16:10
Stabil’nost’ ))))
April 12, 2018 at 16:31
))))
April 12, 2018 at 15:44
hi brit can AF go. current by the final VB
April 12, 2018 at 22:31
Please read the article.
April 12, 2018 at 15:59
brit, in your opinion, I can no longer hope, if my number is 290 ** from Europe, Belarus?
April 12, 2018 at 16:04
I can’t say it is hopeless, no. You have to wait and see.
April 12, 2018 at 16:07
Thanks
April 12, 2018 at 16:09
brit can we see AF go current
April 12, 2018 at 16:21
Wait and see.
April 12, 2018 at 16:50
Hello Brit,
Thank you for all the information you have provided. I have a question about the risk of visas running out in September, just like the case last year.
My case number is EU23*** (almost 24000); and even though I know this is a safe number for CS, I live in the US so I will be doing AoS. It is very likely that with the current pace, the number may get an interview in August, maybe even in September, but I was worried of visas running out by then.
Initially I thought the slow pace this year was to avoid backlogs and visa running-out situation that happened last year, so that everyone would get an opportunity without that risk, but I’m a little confused at this point.
Do you think that this year, that risk for AoS interviewers is greater, or lower? What is your opinion?
Thank you
April 12, 2018 at 17:26
There are differences between AOS and CP. One key difference is that CP cases are allocated a visa as they are scheduled, and as long as they complete the process in the original month of interview, CP cases don’t have to worry about the visa not being there once approved.
AOS cases do not have the visa pre-allocated. So – visa availability is only checked once the case is fully adjudicated. That is why those AOS cases missed out last year – although it was the first year I know where that had happened. Last year was also unusual because KCC made the regions current FAR too early (because they calculated there were enough visas for all remaining cases and got surprised later when their calculations turned out to be wrong.
So – will we hit a brick wall this year? Well we can’t be 100% sure – but we won’t have the underlying problem of having the region made current. So – I think the risk is “less” than last year – but not completely removed. Finally, that risk really only happens in September. So – your case will almost certainly be current earlier than that – and you can use early filing to get your case going. If that is still too much risk for you, consider the switch to CP.
April 12, 2018 at 18:11
Thank you for your reply.
April 13, 2018 at 00:48
I am almost in the same condition as you. My case number is EU239xx. I asked USCIS and learned that background check in US might take up to 5-6 months. I switched to CP. And I am not so sure that we are safe (EU 24000) based on the CEAC data. I hope we can have chance to have interview.
April 12, 2018 at 17:43
Hello brit good evening please I am just worried I have gone for my interview already and I was interviewed but they gave me a pink paper asking me to come with my passport and a non conviction and they didn’t ask me to bring my medical I did the sputum test which the doctor said for that reason my result will be out in two months time but the they ask my other friends that we were there with them to come with the medical now I have already given them my passport and the nonconviction and they have not call me yet I don’t know my chances of getting the visa
April 12, 2018 at 17:47
I don’t know your chances either. I know nothing about your case. But – if you are on AP – all I can say is that it takes time – sometimes months. Just make sure you give the embassy whatever they need from you.
April 12, 2018 at 19:42
What is the meaning of AP
April 12, 2018 at 19:52
Whooooa! Yesterday i told someone that’s 2018 A.D. i see more people are being awakened from hibernation. The next thing will be Elvis Presleyand Lenin asking here: what the hell is DV program? Sorry Mary – just kiding – those questions are funny so late. AP stands for Administrative Processing which means that you have to deliver something (f.e. medical report) or you are just under additional checkup. You have to follow instructions you probably were given. Sometimes it’s just short period after interview which changes for issued after few days. I think in your case you have to complete you med reports. To it asap.
April 12, 2018 at 20:18
@Mary – Administrative Processing – meaning additional processing time needed to process the case (after interview).
April 12, 2018 at 18:04
I give thanks to God for this site, if it weren’t for it, I don’t know what could it been for me this hole year waiting. God bless you man for the time and your patience.
April 12, 2018 at 18:16
mr simon
how many visa are available for egypt ?
my CN (20xxx) is safe ??
April 12, 2018 at 18:28
No country has an allocation. No country can exceed 7% (3500).
Regarding your number – I don’t know. Wait and see.
April 12, 2018 at 18:22
What’s even sadder than this confusing and disheartening DV Lottery evolution is the behavior of some people here. If you based your life and bet on this blog to dictate the outcome of your case then you AND ONLY YOU are the problem. A lottery is just what it is: many will participle, some will be selected, few will win. Accept that as it is the only fact that matters! As any other game: you lose some, you win some. At the end of the day: try again later or as Simon ALWAYS advised: WAIT AND SEE!
April 12, 2018 at 18:46
Agreed. dv lottery is just another lottery… thanks Simon. You’re a big part of my successful dv experience. Keep up the good work!
April 12, 2018 at 18:31
Hi Brit,
My Case number is 19xxx. Do you think I should do early filing? I am not sure why, but my lawyer who takes care my paperwork suggested to do it. Can it be risky? Thanks.
April 12, 2018 at 18:35
Early filing carries some risk of a mistaken rejection – but the risk is not that high.
April 12, 2018 at 18:38
So, what do you think he wants to do that? It is because of the low risk?
April 12, 2018 at 18:44
Ask him.
April 12, 2018 at 18:50
Just to comment on some of the on going discussions. Now let’s note a few things
1)computer randomness is actually pseudo randomness. That means over a given length of try ,it’s bound to produce the same results(it’s not totally unpredictable ).Dv selection is also based on this system. That is why the Holes, non -response etc seem to be identical from year to year and over the same case ranges. So there’s a lot to learn by looking at previous years.
2) human behaviour is actually unpredictable on an individual scale but on large scale , it’s very predictable (~90%). That’s why we have backlogs each year at approximately the same periods in time
3) The Dv lottery isn’t as unpredictable as it may seem ,we just haven’t figured out the RIGHT math.
April 12, 2018 at 18:59
That is sort of true – BUT the math is difficult because the human behavior varies dramatically by country. For example, derivative rates, non response rates, refusal rates are all predictable for each country (based on historical analysis). Some factors can affect that of course (like a country being banned), but without those influences people from each country for each year tend to behave the same as their countrymen in previous years. BUT we don’t have a way to know the precise breakdown of the country distribution. I and others have tried more complex country level models before – BUT that is undermined in a year like this that saw dramatic change in the distribution of winners.
April 12, 2018 at 19:16
People, stop blaming BritSimon for god’s sake!
He owes us NOTHING AT ALL. Let me repeat this: HE OWES US NOTHING. AT. ALL.
Despite this, he helps us, faceless strangers, to the best of his ability. He gives us his time, the exact time he could be spending with his family and friends!
Be grateful for that!
April 12, 2018 at 19:30
Do not be so hysterical – relax :). There is no one blaming anyone especially Britt here – there may be some trolls, some frustrated people, some angry people like me but no one blames anyone. If anybody blames anyone here then he is stupid. Would you worry about being blamed by stupid people for your help? I don’t think so, so i think Britt knows his own value and doesn’t care about stupid people opinion and it won’t let him down. Relax, wait&see (sorry Britt for stealing your text :)) – there are and will be more people grateful for help even if they didn’t suceed than few frustrated trolls 🙂 Btw i wonder when is Tolik Karpov going to show up here 🙂
April 12, 2018 at 19:36
Haha, you’re right. Probably got a bit emotional 🙂
April 12, 2018 at 20:08
Don’t mention that name – PLEASE. A broken clock is correct twice a day. That clock is going to think he’s a swiss timepiece – when in fact he didn’t even have a battery installed.
April 12, 2018 at 20:49
C’mon Britt, we have to deal with it 🙂
April 12, 2018 at 20:54
LOL
April 12, 2018 at 19:19
As of now, I see some big similarity between Dv2018 and Dv2016 for AF. Not only are the two selectees numbers very close to each other, in their VB progress ,they now seem to be converging to the same limit. Based on that assumption , Dv2018 will either cut off at the 46k predicted by Simon or at 50k . These are only assumptions based on comparison
April 12, 2018 at 19:33
In past years, density has fallen in recent months and there have been more steps. And this year what is with holes? They are not here? Density does not fall? Or am I misunderstanding something?
April 12, 2018 at 19:34
Hi everyone, my CS is 23XXX ( very close to 24000) and I am already thinking to find out B plan.Derivatives simple put red cross lines for us 😀 Life is beautiful and don’t think too much about it
April 12, 2018 at 20:54
Mr. BritSimon. Is possible “CURRENT” in SA in the next VB´s or could be reach 17xx?
April 12, 2018 at 20:55
Did you read the article above???
April 12, 2018 at 21:02
Yeah!, About 1700. I hope in the nexts VB´s cut off can reach my number and ” American Dream comes true”. Thank you for your dedications for this forum. Peace and Love!
April 12, 2018 at 20:59
Hi Brit, i have my case number around 36 thousand but do not submit my DS -260 form yet i am doing all my preparation to submit by June. will the time be in my favor for interview appointment?
April 12, 2018 at 21:03
Well that is late – of course – so there is some risk depending on how complicated your DS260 is to process.
April 12, 2018 at 23:21
Simon i just want to say thank you for what you are doing, seriously for all the advice and everything you are doing here. Bless you . Much Love .
April 12, 2018 at 23:23
🙂
April 12, 2018 at 23:49
Hello Brit!
Our case is included in this bulletin thanks to God.
We are from a travel banned country will this affect us from getting the 2NL?
Regards.
April 13, 2018 at 00:08
You will get the 2NL – but unless you have dual citizenship you won’t get the visa. You should consider postponing your interview.
April 13, 2018 at 05:21
But our case is really strong.
We are a family of four Me my brother, mom and dad
Me and my parents are in Kuwait (residents since almost 20 years and not citizens of the country)
And my brother has been in the US since 2015 studying on a F1 visa
My father has 4 US citizen brothers
We have been to the US almost 6 times on Tourist visas.
Wouldnt any of this be taken into consideretion by the interviewer?
Regards,
April 13, 2018 at 05:41
No. None of it.
April 12, 2018 at 23:55
Hi Brit, thanks for the effort again. I’m from Liberia with case# AF31xxx submitted my DS 260 form last July and then unlock it and resubmited it after correcting some minor mistakes in February . Just recently my host in the USA lost phone and she is using new phone why I did mention her old contact which is not on in my DS 260 form. So master brit. can I unlock my DS 260 form to make that change for the second time?
April 13, 2018 at 00:11
Yes, if you want.