2016 Jan 1 CEAC file
OK – so here is the first CEAC data file of DV2016.
Over the next few days I will have a closer look at the data and publish some analysis, but for those eager to see the file I thought I would publish it asap. The file shows the number of cases for each region – the max case numbers assigned for each region, and of course the progress thus far. It is very useful data and over the last few DV lotteries we have found the data to be accurate overall (even though some embassies are inconsistent in their updates).
As we can see the highest case numbers in each region are quite low compared to previous years. This is due to the reduced selectees this year – and the case numbers are in line with comments I have previously made.
In AF region there are 5 cases well above the normal progress of case numbers. These are anomalies – so I have ignored them from the highest case number.
By the way – to understand the status types in the file – please read this post.
As ever, please feel free to sort the data yourself to look at “your” embassy. Information on how to do that is available here.
Also please consider showing your support by leaving a message for my daughter or perhaps donate a small amount of money for the treehouse project. You can read about that here:
So here is the file.
January 1, 2016 at 22:40
Thank you Brit. Really appreciate your commitment.
January 1, 2016 at 22:52
Thank you very much for the work that you are doing for us.
Considering the max cases in europe do you think the case number 22xxx will be current in january for an interview in March?
I’m curious to know your opinion because now you have some information. I apologize if I bother u with this question!
January 1, 2016 at 22:54
I Submitted my application at the very end of August and I have recently received my interview date for February 9th in Sydney Australia!
January 1, 2016 at 23:04
Question: Are the cases on this file the totality of cases, or already just the ones that will get current?
Sorry if this is a silly question!
Take care and happy 2016.
January 1, 2016 at 23:17
These are ALL the cases.
January 2, 2016 at 03:18
My CN is among the highest in the AF region so my dreams have been pulverized if the region won’t go current.
January 2, 2016 at 04:46
You might have explained these before in other posts, but I would still like to ask you several questions if you don’t mind:
1) In column B, does the “Cases” mean the allocated cases for each region for the year? And if so if my case number of AS9XXX is larger than the 8436 cases for AS, how good is my chance of going current?
2) What does the “Max case number in CEAC” in column K mean and its significance?
3) What does the “Published selectees” in column L mean and its relationship to column K?
Thanks for all the good work and keep it up!
January 2, 2016 at 06:42
1. The 8436 cases is the total number of cases within the AS region. Your case number is risky – but we will have to wait and see whether you make it or not.
2. Column K is the highest case number found in CEAC for each region. So – just as you have 2016AS9XXX, someone else has 2016AS12332 – and they are the last person in a line of 8436 cases.
3. Column L is the number of selectees (winners plus their families) published in the June VB per region.
January 2, 2016 at 07:32
Thanks for the prompt reply.
So, 15,002 of selectees with the max CN of 12332 for AS region, can we say the density is quite high and the cutoff will be roughly the same as DV2015 at 7XXX?
January 2, 2016 at 16:20
The density is around the same as last year. AS cutoff could vary greatly depending on Iranian AoS cases. So – it is hard to be precise about the final cutoff.
January 2, 2016 at 06:21
Brit what about those of higher cn in AF regions especially in 50k-55900 do they have chance to be interviewed, what is ur estimated cutoff for af region? Thaks
January 2, 2016 at 06:36
I haven’t done an estimate yet – but when I do, I will make it clear that there is a long time between now and July – and much may change….
January 2, 2016 at 13:47
I’m quite confused with the max case number column in your chart. For Europe, it’s 24517.
My case number is EU239XX. Does it mean my interview won’t be scheduled until September?
January 2, 2016 at 16:13
It means you are very near the last number BUT – as I have written many times, EU will go current so your number will be eligible for interview much sooner than September – possibly April/May.
January 2, 2016 at 22:13
Thank you Brit for this information. It’s reassuring. I appreciate what you’ve done for all the DV selectees.
Happy New Year 2016 to Sofia and you from France!!!
January 2, 2016 at 14:05
The number of family mambers is huge compared to last year
January 2, 2016 at 16:11
No it isn’t. Why do you say that?
January 3, 2016 at 01:28
I didn’t understand it, cuz when I saw the same data of last year it said 6K for family members
January 3, 2016 at 03:05
Well, it’s about the same…
January 2, 2016 at 14:29
hi brit,my case no is 2016AS000062xx from nepal ,how much chance to get second letter and when? according to your comment in” pokhera kancha” post there is no more case above7100 from nepal.so in your guess upto which case no will safe .
January 2, 2016 at 16:11
You have a good chance – but I have not done a prediction yet.
January 2, 2016 at 21:34
hi Brit, Happy New Year !!!!
Since now that you have some information about the CEAC DATA,
1)could you please tell me the fate about my following case number which is AF285XX? (Risky or Safe)
2) possibly in which month may i get called up for the interview?
January 2, 2016 at 22:27
Your number is obviously safe. April or May current.
January 2, 2016 at 22:17
If density of nepal cutoff at 7100 then all case greater then 6800 are riskey. Am i right?
January 2, 2016 at 22:26
Yes you are on the right track. The risk probably starts a bit lower than 68xx
January 2, 2016 at 23:32
Hi again BritSimon,
How risky do you think my CN 2016SA00001258 is?
January 3, 2016 at 03:08
Should be ok.
January 3, 2016 at 08:00
Happy new year.
Now that the ceac data are available, and the max case number in Iran is 7500, how safe do think 2016AS7200 is?
January 3, 2016 at 15:49
I can’t be sure.
January 3, 2016 at 12:00
Hi happy new year,from Ghana I submitted application in octomber 2015,when will i have my case number and my interview date.Please sir,how does someone has a casenumber?Is it that you get your casenumber before you are qualified for interview.
January 3, 2016 at 15:48
OK – you entered the lottery for DV2017 by the sound of it. You therefore have to wait to see if you won. Winners will be announced in May.
January 3, 2016 at 13:07
Hello Brit ,
First Happy new year and best wishes .
As the CEAC data has been published , and since you have more experience , I wanted to check the safety of my case number , my case is AF35***
Thanks in advance and sorry for bothering .
Keep it it up
January 3, 2016 at 15:44
January 3, 2016 at 14:26
i have passed my interview on december 02,the consul toled me that she should put my case under administrative processing,because i had concern i contacted them by email they toled me my case still under AP but when i checked my visa process on the CEAC i found “Ready” !!!!
i’m confused i have 32 days
January 3, 2016 at 14:59
The ready status simply means the embassy have not updated CEAC. AP is unpredictable. Hopefully yours will be resolved soon.
January 4, 2016 at 00:58
My case no is 2016AS11462 , but MY Case no is not listed in ceac date that you posted above, I have already filled DS-260 form ?? Please help me ??
January 4, 2016 at 02:13
That is very strange. It is missing from CEAC entirely. I would suggest you contact KCC to check the status of your case. It could just be that CEAC is missing your case for some reason.
January 4, 2016 at 12:34
Your so much thanked for your info
Can you please tell me about my case AS86XX
January 4, 2016 at 14:50
January 4, 2016 at 16:45
I have already toled you that i passed my interview on december 2, my case is under AP but when i would check in CEAC I find Ready,is it a problem ? should i send an email to US embassy in algeria to tell them ?
how much time in maximum does it take to resolve my case ?
why don’t they give me visa ? have i a problem ? or do they have doubt about me ?
can you give me some informations about AP please ?
January 4, 2016 at 18:08
I already answered you just a few posts up on this page.
January 5, 2016 at 17:35
Enter your comment here…happy new for all Dv public
January 9, 2016 at 08:03
sir, what does that IncFam column refers for ready cases?
January 9, 2016 at 18:32
Including family members – derivatives. So – a selectee, married with 1 child – would have 3 in that column.
January 9, 2016 at 20:02
Thank you for your insight analysis.
Just have one question, how come the max case number is lower than the number of selectees such as AS?
January 9, 2016 at 20:14
Because each case represents a winner and the family members, whilst the total selectees number includes all family members.
January 10, 2016 at 12:13
Hello Britsimon… I was looking at the above data for the AF region, the cases without derivatives is 30066, the cases inclusive of family members is 33878. Where did the notified number of 45034 come from? Many regards.
January 10, 2016 at 15:37
REmemeber – the case where we have the family numbers are only those that have already been scheduled. The at NVC cases don’t show the family members. The 45k figure is the number released by KCC – the total number of selectees.
January 15, 2016 at 15:42
I he Simon, Thank you for the useful information. .. I already had my interview on 6th jan and yet the visa status is still ready without being changed. .. as I know it don’t have to take all this time in ready status.
So what your advice ??
January 15, 2016 at 15:45
January 19, 2016 at 17:24
Hope you are doing well.
I had my interview in Khartoum two weeks ago and visa status is still ready, and i know some friends who did the interview after me and now they get their passports,
So what you think,, and is that a normal scenario.
January 19, 2016 at 18:19
It isn’t normal – but may not mean there is a problem. Wait a few days more then contact the embassy.
January 25, 2016 at 10:12
I contacted the embassy and now my case is AP with last update on 25-jan, Note the last update was 06 jan(interview date).
So what you think now??
January 25, 2016 at 17:32
The updates are meaningless.
January 16, 2016 at 21:44
I guess the column G “SubDate” is the submission date of DS-260. But all the years in that column belong to 2014. Is this a mistake? Is is supposed to be 2015?
January 16, 2016 at 21:58
No – it is the date the person entered the lottery. So the date is accurate.