OK – as some of you will know, over the last few days many people have joined together and provided the hands and effort to solve CAPTCHAS on the CEAC system. Xarthisius coded a BRILLIANT tool that was able to harness that manpower and capture the CEAC data – case by case. That data provides an invaluable insight into what happened in DV2017. Knowing what happened, allows us to make better predictions about the next year of DV, but also allows general better understanding of the process.
So – I want to explain some of the findings and over the coming days I can elaborate on what it means for DV2018.
Firstly, even though DV2017 is over, the CEAC data is still being updated. Some of the embassies are slow to update CEAC, and some cases will not show the accurate final position. So – the CEAC data isn’t “precise”, and requires a little interpretation. As an example – take 2017AF62. A few days ago that case was showing as AP for the principal and ready for the derivatives. Now the case shows Issued and the 3 derivatives show ready. The issued update happened on September 27th – and I would not be surprised to see the derivatives get updated in the next few days. Because of this continuing updates, we ideally want to continue the scraping. This will improve the accuracy of our data overall – although the numbers we already have can be considered highly representative – only a few hundred changes at most.
Next, let’s discuss what is interesting about the data. Well the first thing is issued counts of course – and I will give those here. But we also can learn from the AP and refused cases. We can analyze that data to find which embassies are “strict” and so on. I last did that with 2014 data and published the league table. I will update that in the next couple of days.
AP cases tell us a lot about which embassies tend to lean toward AP. That isn’t always for one embassy though – for instance we know that Iranian cases have a very high chance of AP – but those cases are processed at three embassies.
So – for the issued cases (and remember, these numbers could change over the next few days as CEAC gets updated), here are the counts per region. These numbers DO NOT include adjustment of status – which normally adds another 1500 cases or so globally.
AF – 18981
AS – 7441
EU – 19919
OC – 696
SA – 1700
Total – 48737 (Remember AOS will be up to 1500 on top of this number)
So – we can see that they have indeed hit the 50,000. Remember, a few more cases will be added to the issued count for AF and AS region in particular since these were the earliest regions to be scraped.
Now – some explanations of factors that affect the DV2018 process. In every year, there are a few factors that need to be understood.
I have explained before about “Holes” (shown by density charts). Simply, holes are cases disqualified before the results are announced because the case broke some rule OR because a country was “limited” during the draw. I have explained this in detail here and also here and I have produced density charts previously with full explanation here. So – now we have the density charts for DV2017
In the chart below we can see that the density for the numbers up to CN15000 is an average of 76%. That means 24% of all Africa cases are holes – disqualified for double entries etc before the May announcement. Hole cases get picked along with genuine cases in the initial selection but are pulled out of the final selection and never get notified of the selection.
Between CN15000 and CN16000 there is an obvious drop in density. The rate drops to 58.7%. To explain why that happens you should make sure you read the holes theory explanations linked above, but for illustration I am also including a second chart for Accra Embassy alone. That chart clearly illustrates the absence of cases after 16000. We have to remember that a foreigner (non Ghanaian) interviewing in Accra would show up on the second chart as this data gives selectees by embassy, not country of chargeability. So – that explains the 4 individual cases above 16000.
From the second chart we can also see the rate at which Ghana is getting selectees. However, that does not include “non responses” (explained later in this article). However it clearly shows the compression of Ghana cases in the CNs up to 16000. With a little more complicated logic I am able to calculate the rough numbers of entries that a country had, and the non response rate for the country.
In a normal year, other countries get limited too. Ethiopia, Egypt, Congo DRC all have the potential to be limited. Using the charts I can see Egypt was limited at around 32000 in DV2017, but other countries have a less obvious cutoff. In DV2015 and DV2014 this cutoffs were more obvious because the selectee counts were higher – and DV2018 will be more like those years.
So – comparing Asia to Africa region we can see the initial holes rate is lower (6.5% for Asia, 24% for AF). That, simply put, means AS region entries more typically follow the rules. That density rate continues until Iran and Nepal hit their selectee limits at around 8100 or 8200. I did hear of some second draw selectees from Nepal at around 8600, but I assume those were statistical outliers.
Interestingly, Nepal actually seems to cutoff in my charts by 7600. That number is about where the 1st draw was limited for Nepal, and I know from non response analysis that there is a noticeable spike in non responses in AS region after 7600. My assumption is that the agents in Nepal (they are “good” agents, not the bad type) probably told people to not submit their DS260 for the second draw selectees, OR many selectees in Nepal simply didn’t know about their win. I’d like to hear from high case number selectees from Nepal to confirm those assumptions.
Initial holes rate is 20.5%, again, much higher than Asia region.
In EU region the only country limits were on Ukraine and Uzbekistan (affectionately know as the U2 countries). Both countries hit their limits pretty early, one just after 15000 and the other around 17000.
OC and SA region do not have limited countries, so their charts are less “interesting” in a sense.
OC holes rate is 8%
SA region holes rate is about 6%
There are cases that stay on the status “at NVC”. These cases are non responses – people who did not submit their DS260, or submitted it so late that the DS260 could not be processed in time. I have published an article about that before – here. There are also some cases where the selectee is doing adjustment of status, but AOS cases are only about 3 – 4%.
Non responses are interesting because they help explain why KCC select so many additional selectees. So – if a region has 30000 selectees as published in May, but 25% are not going to respond, then there are “only” 22500 selectees left. So – non response rate is highly significant to predict chances for a region of going current.
We have to be a little wary of using the starting non response rate across the whole region, because the NR rate can vary by country. It makes sense that the U2 countries for example would have a high NR rate because the agencies there are registering people speculatively – later approaching the “winners” with the offer of the Green Card win for a few thousand dollars of bribe money.
AF chart shows significant non responses starting at around 28%, and rising with high case numbers. Again – this is high case numbers holding back assuming they would not get an interview.
The AS region demonstrates the spike I mentioned for late cases non submitting. The initial non response rate is 27%. I am surprised it is so high.
The EU non response chart shows the late spike in non responses and 34% initial rate.
OC region non response rate is startling at about 50%, although OC also has a high AOS rate (because of the easy access for Australians to non immigrant working visas)
SA region also has a high non response rate (49%), but again, has a fairly mobile population, so might have higher AOS.
OK – I have to stop at this point to spend the day with my wife as it is her birthday! But hopefully you will see the incredible wealth of information that this data provides. I am so incredibly grateful to Xarthisius for understanding the vision for the crowddriven scraper and being able to make it work, and to all the people out there who made it happen. Let’s carry on scraping for a few days to get the update the database with the final DV2017 numbers, and then we can start again in 2018. I don’t expect to have any DV2018 data in the CEAC system until January 1 2018. Once it is there we can harness the incredible power of the wonderful readers of this blog!
October 3, 2017 at 13:45
Woooow excellent and hard work as usual Brit, can I request the specific numbers of 2017 for Egypt please
October 3, 2017 at 13:58
In time I will make that available
October 4, 2017 at 03:15
October 8, 2017 at 18:20
Hi Brit, can I request the specific numbers of 2017 for Cameroon please
October 9, 2017 at 03:10
When I get some time.
October 3, 2017 at 13:58
Thanks Brit I want to apply now can you I do it on my phone I used tecno w5 will it be possible I meet up with all the requirements as of now if I’m doing it on my phone
October 3, 2017 at 14:27
No problem with using the phone.
October 3, 2017 at 14:01
Do you have information about the highest CN reached in Europe? My number for 2018 is 21xxx and I am little worried.
October 3, 2017 at 14:26
No need for that number to be worried.
October 3, 2017 at 14:55
Hello Brit. My number for 2018EU is 25xxx what is your prognosis of my interview. Thank you!
October 3, 2017 at 15:46
Do you mean the outcome or the timing? For the latter, at the moment – just wait and see.
October 3, 2017 at 14:56
I am from Nepal my case in 2018 is 5*** it is safe CN
or not ????
October 3, 2017 at 15:46
October 4, 2017 at 07:43
Case number upto 7000 can be considered safe for Nepal.
October 3, 2017 at 15:02
Thanks M Brit.
thanks very much
Happy bird day to your wife !!! Enjoy your Day
God bless you and your Family
October 3, 2017 at 15:47
October 3, 2017 at 18:01
October 3, 2017 at 15:07
wow …..thanks our ideal father…..
HAPPY BIRTHDAY for your wife…
October 3, 2017 at 15:24
Amazing! We celebrate you for your effort……don’t we all just love this. Happy Birthday your wife….How is the tree house project coming up?
October 3, 2017 at 15:49
Haha thanks. The treehouse is delayed… 🙁
October 3, 2017 at 15:33
My name is Azhar
Iam from the sudan, me and my husband in AP from 6/14/2017, and on 8/28/2017 consular section of Khartoum call me and request the relationship in the USA I said I have cousin of my mother, and they said No, just waiting till 9/28/2017 I said but on these days the will be off they said we will work.
And the 9/28/2017 is coming and consular section of Khartoum not work, and we waited and waited, with out any change in our case, last update in 9/24/2017
And the consular section of Khartoum not answer on our inquires, and not say coming to have apassport with or without Visa,we are about 125 pepeople in AP in this embassy some AP by reason of travel ban,some for further information, and some with out reasons
My question is :
If there hope to change our case from AP to Issued knowing that I sent to KCC and said the annual year of that program is colsed
Best regards, to you and Happy birthday to your wife.
October 3, 2017 at 15:50
The year is closed. If they haven’t approved the case already, it is now too late. I’m sorry.
October 3, 2017 at 16:02
Tnx brit for the information, Happy birthday to your wife may she live many years on earth, so DV 2018 like my case AF38xxx should i worry brit?
October 3, 2017 at 19:21
October 3, 2017 at 16:08
I am a 2017 dv lottery winner. My case number is 2017AF1****. I passed the interview on february. I have been told that my visa is approaved. A day after the interview, I checked my visa status online which shows “issued”. I waited for about 1 month and when things got late I contacted the ambassy in casablanca, they told me that my visa is still under review. I kept contacting them continuously, but the answer was always “not yet”. Now it’s October. I contacted the ambassy last Monday, they told me that my case is still under review by a service in the US. Please, would you tell me what to do?!
October 3, 2017 at 19:20
There is nothing to do except wait.
October 3, 2017 at 18:40
Happy birthday to your spouse .
October 3, 2017 at 18:42
Hi Brit, my cn is EU38xxx shuold i be worry? Thx a lot sir for your help?
October 3, 2017 at 19:26
That is a little high, so there is some risk.
October 3, 2017 at 18:59
Great job Simon – you and Xarthisius should be proud of yourselves. And a very happy birthday to your wife!
October 3, 2017 at 19:25
October 3, 2017 at 19:21
“My assumption is that the agents in Nepal (they are “good” agents, not the bad type) probably told people to not submit their DS260 for the second draw selectees,..”. What does this mean? Would you please explain further about not submit DS260 for the second draw selectees?
October 3, 2017 at 19:23
I don’t know anything more. I am simply trying to understand the sharp increase in non responses after 7600.
October 3, 2017 at 20:03
I can see on both diagrams that EU CNs end at 31k.. Is that because of no higher CN were processed (seems strange as EU became current in may) or there weren’t CNs higher than 31k (which looks also almost impossible for me, as I look at selectees’ numbers. Thank you for reply. And have great time with family today 🙂
October 3, 2017 at 22:24
That was the highest case number. DV2017 had far fewer selectees than DV2018.
October 4, 2017 at 21:43
I have the same question regarding AF region. You stopped the charts at 43K. Was that the highest case number for AF DV2017 ? and happy birthday to your wife. I hope she didn’t mind you answering the comments throughout the day !
October 4, 2017 at 22:44
That was the highest AF number
October 3, 2017 at 20:37
happy birthday to your wife sir, Iam in OC region .when i read the above article that oc issued cases is 696 Iam bit concern now since my number is OC 1xxx. that means we have a chance or no. I was thinking below 1300 was safe. Sir Is it still safe below OC 1300 or no.
October 3, 2017 at 22:17
Yes it is. If you read the article there are many non responses.
October 3, 2017 at 23:58
Just tell me Am I at risk or no worries?
Just your opinion plz
Also I did not yet submitted my DS260, Am I late?
October 4, 2017 at 00:25
Risk – I don’t know.
No you are not late.
October 4, 2017 at 04:56
Happy birthday to your spouse .god bless u
October 4, 2017 at 06:37
Happy Birthday to your wife.
October 4, 2017 at 10:41
October 4, 2017 at 07:01
hi dv2019 why it is not open yet … I can not register
October 4, 2017 at 10:42
October 4, 2017 at 08:19
Happy birthday to your spouse .
As an information, in Turkey , embassy has called 14 of 17 AP cases for interview on Sept.26 via telephone.
The selectees completed their process succesfully.
October 4, 2017 at 10:56
Ahhh, interesting. I know there were large number of AP cases that were allocated the last visas in various embassies prior to September 8.
October 4, 2017 at 08:26
HAPPY BIRTH DAY MR.SIMON
WISH FOR U THE BEST.
October 4, 2017 at 08:40
LAIDE , IT IS WORKING I OPENED IT JUST BE BEFORE 5 MINUTE.TRY IT AGAIN .
October 4, 2017 at 09:04
thank u Said
October 4, 2017 at 08:51
Hello Brit,Can i submit DV 2019 application one by one in On my pc,I need to submit, my friends form
October 4, 2017 at 10:57
October 4, 2017 at 11:31
Excellent explanation. Thanks & belated greetings to you wonderful wife. Wish you whole family bright future.
October 4, 2017 at 13:24
Hi Brit, with this data you keep the same safe numbers ? or change a little? for example your safe number for SA is 1500 you will keep that number or can change according your knowledge. Thanks
October 4, 2017 at 13:32
I haven’t run any calculations yet.
October 4, 2017 at 19:28
Amazing work !!!
My wife is selected from Asia Region and from Nepal . Her Case Number is AS60XX.
But we both are here in US. So we are trying to do adjustment of status.
I am little bit worried that our case number seems little bit high so,
i) For our case number, from your point of view; is it considered safe ?
ii) Can we fill the EDV 2019 application form for her and mine ?
Thanks for you excellent cooperation to all of us.
October 4, 2017 at 22:46
1. Yes but it will be late in the year.
July 19, 2018 at 11:55
Please continue to keep me inform about the DVD programm
July 19, 2018 at 15:10
Sure. I’ll write you an email any time you need to know something. Just for you.
October 4, 2017 at 20:50
Happy Bday to your Wife Brit! Enjoy!
October 4, 2017 at 23:41
Hi. Mr.BritSimon, Happy birthday to your wife, My question Is that I won 2018AF14*** from SOMALIA , one of the Affected Countries of the travel ban, but i have been living legally and peacefully the last 11 years in another country which is not in the list without visiting my home country, I am Currently Engineering Student with No any criminal record in this country which can be proved, Do you think any possible visa waiver can be applied on my case?,
As this is lottery visa which if once refused will be difficult to ever win again, Can I claim that this as Undue hardships
KCC says they will continue processing cases for interview appointments, but i have to spend some money that i don’t want to waste if my chance is close to Zero.
what is your overall suggestions and steps that i can do now to convince the consular officer, that I am Not 1.Problem to Security and Safety, 2.Refusing Visa will cause me Undue hardships and 3.getting Visa will be on National Interest ?
October 4, 2017 at 23:48
If you are a citizen of the other non banned country, then you would be OK. But waivers will be very rare.
October 5, 2017 at 01:20
Hello Brit thanks a bunch for your time. Please does it mean the sooner you apply when dv is launched, the better your chance of being selected?
October 5, 2017 at 03:52
No. It is random. It doesn’t matter when you apply
October 5, 2017 at 05:57
Hi. Brit. For eu in dv18
1000*0.6*(1-0.34)=396~400-real cn with ds260 per 1000cn
40000 (highest cn)*0.4=16000- cn with ds in eu
16000*1.6 (deriv.rate)=25600- people, this is higher than 50k*36%=18k- limit for region.
Visas will not be enough
Is it correct? )))
October 5, 2017 at 12:43
I have not discussed refusal rate yet. Plus you are treating 40000 as if the density is uniform – it isn’t.
October 7, 2017 at 04:24
could u tell me please case number below 11000 for AS region was safe for dv 2017?
What was the highest case number dv 2017 for AS region?
October 7, 2017 at 04:33
THe highest case number selected was 9087. That went current – BUT visas ran out in September
October 7, 2017 at 12:35
hallo brit, i wanted to know how cases are distributed all over the winning regions, if case no for example 2018AF3000, is there same no as this case no in other regions?
October 7, 2017 at 12:37
Yes that number could exist in all regions.
October 7, 2017 at 18:13
We are waiting to see the progress graphs of 2017 of the regions progress. You published the graphs for 2015 and 2016 to allow people look for their numbers in their regions so they can guess roughly when their cases will be ready for interview.
October 7, 2017 at 19:08
The historical numbers for DV2017 are available at the link at the top of the page.
October 8, 2017 at 08:24
Well, It does not have the info. about the progress of the case numbers/months like this one you published for 2015 & 2016 .
October 8, 2017 at 13:57
Of course it has the info! That is exactly what the graph shows for the other years.
October 8, 2017 at 15:08
There is nothing in there about the progress of 2017 ! Similar to the graph you published for 2015 and 2016. If I am missing it please share the link that contains graph showing Cases interviews by month. Like the below one.
Thanks A lot for your efforts we relay on your opinions and analytical reports.
October 8, 2017 at 15:22
There is no graph there – but these are the NUMBERS that make the graph are there. There is no analysis – you can read the numbers – you don’t need the graph.
October 8, 2017 at 16:27
I read every word. Nothing in there about the Interview Progress and Time Frame. There is no Case Number / Month DATA !
October 9, 2017 at 03:24
You are not following instructions then. Last time.
October 7, 2017 at 18:36
happy birthday to your wife mr simon
there is a worry for my number AF205xx from egypt??
October 7, 2017 at 19:10
October 7, 2017 at 19:33
Hi Brit. With the new 2017 cedac information you keep the same safena number? Or it could change a little bit. Thanks
October 7, 2017 at 20:02
I don’t expect top revise the numbers until January.
October 8, 2017 at 02:29
According to this data the last cases interviewed in this year were up to 9200 in As region, am i right?
October 8, 2017 at 03:37
Yes – but Nepal finished early and there were many cases that finished AP in September that could not get a visa since they ran out.
October 8, 2017 at 08:15
I’ve one question:
Let’s say 2018AS1 Visa had been refused or the winner didn’t submit his DS260, his chance will go to the next one in the queue? I mean the total issue visa for example will be 50000, if there’s 3000 refused, Not Response…..etc, theirs will be 3000 for others people (Winners) ?
October 8, 2017 at 13:54
October 8, 2017 at 09:36
Hi Brit I am from AF region my case number is AF201800019XXX will have the opportunity to be eligible ?
October 8, 2017 at 13:59
October 8, 2017 at 16:57
hallo brit ope u are doing well, does it mean that if one has yellow fever vaccination, is it excluded from medical test?
October 9, 2017 at 03:21
I an bot a doctor. Just relax and leave that to the doctor.
October 9, 2017 at 00:25
Hi brit! I have one question.
I’m dv 2018 seclected, do not get interview date yet. Do I need to reapply for the dv 2019 lottery?
October 9, 2017 at 02:41
There is no harm in applying again.
October 10, 2017 at 02:33
thank you, all the best for you
October 9, 2017 at 07:24
My interview was on 12 September 2017 in Khartoum the officer told me your document it’s okay but issues Visa for Sudanese Suspended accordance to President’s decision so we inform you end of September, my passport with him until now I did not get any E-mail from US Embassy, I check my case still in AP
October 9, 2017 at 13:51
DV2017 is over. If you weren’t approved before October you cannot get approved now.
October 10, 2017 at 04:42
Can i apply for dv 2019 even tho i am a winner in dv 2018
Because i am afraid i wont be selected because i am in the edge of EU37XXX
October 10, 2017 at 14:50
Yes, no problem.
October 10, 2017 at 08:28
Hi i try to reach CEAC Status Scraper tool but it’s tell me all done!!!!
did u shut the tool down until another time?
October 10, 2017 at 14:45
Yes – we have DV-2017 numbers, and DV-2018 cases are not loaded in CEAC until January 2018 – so there is nothing to scrape.
October 10, 2017 at 15:20
Kindly give me the site to register free dvd lottery 2019. Thanks
October 10, 2017 at 19:25
But try tomorrow because the site is down at the moment.
October 12, 2017 at 08:39
Dose the difference in one spelling on the last name on the educational document and DV response create problem to US embassy at the time of interview?
Just to explain the problem
Spellings of my last name from educational documents DAGNEW
Spellings of my last name from DV response DAGNAW
pleas,tell me what to do?
Thank you for your information
October 12, 2017 at 13:56
Normally not a problem.
October 12, 2017 at 10:29
Hello! Just want if my case number is safe or not. EU 34***, and also when will my case come if it comes just ur opponion as an expert
October 12, 2017 at 13:52
I’ll post an article in the next day or two.
October 17, 2017 at 18:54
We are waiting for you Sir. Many new factors to consider (ban, holes, new KCC methodologies etc …..
October 17, 2017 at 19:31
Read my recent posts.
October 17, 2017 at 19:49
I read them all. There is nothing about adjustment of Safe Numbers. We are waiting to see the the newer version of the Safe Numbers. You said “DV2018 won’t be precisely like DV2017, but it will be similar. Once we have the DV2018 data, I will use DV2017 non response rates and denial rates to predict the final DV2018 cutoffs. However, the “holes” let me explain why VB pace will increase for some regions.
October 17, 2017 at 09:05
I would like to get the dv2017 ceac data.
October 17, 2017 at 12:17
October 18, 2017 at 09:42
Thank you Brit ,I think the non responsive rate in AF region just confirms that there is a high chances that starting January 2019 things will move faster than we think,it looks intresting ,Thank u for all you do
October 18, 2017 at 09:46
I think you mean January 2018. So You are expecting so !?