Some more analysis to explain the process.

Another factor that affects the chances of high case numbers is the rate at which derivatives are added onto existing winners cases. How does that happen? Well, it is a selectee entering as single and then getting married during the DV process (see this post about how to do that), or of course babies being born to selectees. So – let’s say you have 1000 people in front of you in the DV processing line – but then one of those who entered as single gets married and that spouse has three children. The line just became 1004 – 4 more derivatives were added in front of you.


OK – why is this a problem? Well the rate of derivative growth is startling. In my mirst year of looking at the data closely I had not really realized what a big impact it was, until the end of the year.

So – how can we calculate it.

First let’s find the starting derivative rate – I actually published that on my CEAC file already. The calculation is simple. We know how many selectees were announced by KCC for each region. For AF region for example there were 45034 selectees announced as winners – and that included selectees and their derivatives. Then with the first CEAC file, we can see how many cases (one per principal selectee) we have. For AF region there are 30066. So – 45034 family members on 30066 cases gives an average derivative rate of 1.498 for AF region.

Next we calculate the derivative rate we see in the CEAC file itself. For cases shown at NVC and in Transit we do not have the family numbers yet, so I filter them from the file. The average derivative rate is then very simple to calculate on the scheduled cases.

So – here are the numbers for each region at this point.

2016 jan 1 derivative growth rate

As you can see each region has already experienced an increase and in AF and EU regions this is quite profound.

What is means is that the original 45034 selectees number for AF is now 25.5% higher – around 56500 – an increase of over 11000 people. So – the new THEORETICAL effective selectee counts for each region are:

AF – 56524

EU – 34602

AS – 18956

SA – 3420

OC – 1598

Again, this is just theoretical, but it helps understand the process better.

I should also mention, that this dramatic growth rates sometimes accompany higher refusal rates, because the COs judge that the selectee got married simply to add someone to their win. If you are considering doing that, don’t. You are risking being charged with fraud, and being barred for life from the USA.

All the analysis posts.


Derivative growth rate

Response Rate

Issued Rate and Predictions