PLEASE READ THE TEXT BELOW RATHER THAN ASKING QUESTIONS I HAVE ALREADY COVERED.
As most of you will know there have been technical problems affecting the visa issuing systems that are being resolved at this time. Those same problems had an impact on the CEAC data system that I use to extract visa issue data. So – the CEAC data that I published on June 12 was understated because of the system problems which started on June 9. Over the last two days there have been updates to the CEAC data system and in fact the 2NL “in Transit” rows have been updated – some very quickly marked as received by the various embassies.
Just a note about “at NVC”, “in Transit” and “READY” status types. The standard starting point for all case is at NVC. Once the case is scheduled (and usually immediately after the 2NLs are sent) the CEAC system is updated to in Transit (meaning the case is being passed to the embassy. Then the case is marked as received by the embassy and the case then shows READY status.
So – I have extracted a CEAC file and published it. However, the issued numbers are clearly impacted still (some updates, but not all). This means the issued number is inaccurate. We can not deduce too much by these files although it is possible to see the 2NL volume and work out response rates in the regions (apart from AS). The response rates are best measured on cases that are newly current.
A couple of notes – AF region has had a very large number of interviews scheduled – well over 2000. This is what I had hoped and is a sign that KCC are trying to compensate (finally) for the no shows. Also the AF response rate for the numbers that just went current is 60%. I had earlier speculated that the real response rate (ignoring certain high volume, agent controlled countries) for AF would end between 60 and 65% – so that turned out to be accurate. The final number should be in the predicted range.
EU also had a good month for 2NLs – and had a newly current response rate of 50%.
I am hopeful that 2NLs will be sent out tomorrow (Thursday), or Friday. However, the technical problems seem to be having an impact still.
Many people are asking why I am not predicting the final numbers – I have fully described my reasons here. I have already posted a fairly detailed description of what ranges I think will be safe or risky. So – please read those posts rather than asking me for final VB predictions or asking is your number safe – thank you!
Here is the data.